Heartland Modeling: Heartland Regional Transportation Planning Organization

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Patricia M Steed Executive Director TPO Staff Services Director Heartland Modeling

Transcript of Heartland Modeling: Heartland Regional Transportation Planning Organization

Page 1: Heartland Modeling: Heartland Regional Transportation Planning Organization

Patricia M SteedExecutive DirectorTPO Staff Services Director

HeartlandModeling

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Heartland2060.com

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Building a Resilient Region

Central Florida Regional Planning Council

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Where Will Our Future Take Us?

Source: 1000 Friends of Florida

Developed landConserved land

20602005

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Sources: 2009 BEBR and the 2010 Census Release at http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/index.php, US Census Bureau

County/Area 1990 2000% Change 1990-

2000 2010% Change 2000-

2010

DeSoto 23,865 32,209 34.96% 34,862 8.24%

Hardee 19,499 26,938 38.15% 27,731 2.94%

Highlands 68,432 87,366 27.67% 98,786 13.07%

Okeechobee 29,627 35,910 21.21% 39,996 11.38%

Polk 405,382 483,924 19.37% 602,095 24.42%

Five County Region 546,805 666,347 21.86% 803,470 20.58%

Glades 7,591 10,576 39.32% 12,884 21.82%

Hendry 25,773 36,210 40.50% 39,140 8.09%

Seven County Region 580,169 713,133 22.92% 855,494 19.96%

Florida 12,938,071 15,982,824 23.53% 18,801,310 17.63%

Nation 248,718,302 281,424,603 13.15% 308,745,538 9.71%

Heartland 2060 Population Change

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Business retention and attraction

Topic areas:

Opportunities for youth

Meeting future industry skills needs

Mix of employment opportunities

Task Force:

Economic Diversification

Infrastructure to Support Diversified

Economy

Early Learning, K-16, Lifelong Education

Key Issues:

Opportunities for children of the

Heartland to learn and work locally

Expand access to adult education, alternative learning, and lifelong

improvement

Creating a 2060 workforce today and

tomorrow

Utilities (including broadband)

Topic areas:

Transportation

Energy infrastructure

Business climate

Improve low graduation and achievement rates

Education, Workforce, and Economic Development

Education, Workforce, and Economic Development

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Water supply

Topic areas:

Water quality

Conservation, drought protection, and water

storage

Restoration and management

Task Force:

Water

Sustainable and Viable Natural Systems

Agriculture

Energy/Climate Change

Key Issues:

Sustainability

Changing markets

Linkage to conservation

Conservation (species and habitat)

Topic areas:

Management (fire, water, habitat, recreational)

Integrity of natural systems (preservation

and restoration)

Future energy production

Clean energy

Carbon impacts

Migration from the coast

Way of life

Environment and Natural Resources

Task Force: Environment and Natural Resources

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Promote healthy communities

Topic areas:

Improve access to and quality of health care

Expand health care industry

Task Force:

Health Care

Cultural Identity

Key Issues:

Topic areas:

Maintain existing strong sense of community

Maintain rural character with access to desirable

urban amenities

Expand cultural opportunities to

increase retention of youth

Community Resources

Community Resources

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Balance in urban land uses and conservation

land uses

Topic areas:

Transportation systems prevent fragmentation

of natural systems

Infrastructure supports sustainable agriculture

Land use supports a sustainable economy

and a sustainable environment

Task Force:

Integrating with Natural Resources

Planning

Supporting Economic Development

Ensuring Multimodal Connectivity

Enhancing and Creating Sustainable

Communities

Key Issues:

Creating multimodal corridors

Connecting the Heartland with other

regions

Moving people by rail, roads, and transit

Land use to support 2060 economy

Topic areas:

Moving people to support 2060 economy

Moving goods to support 2060 economy

Promoting energy efficient land use

patternsSupporting

redevelopmentHousing affordability

and sense of place within established

communitiesImprovements to serve

the needs of new communities

Moving freight by rail, roads, and air

Transportation& Land Use

Linking transportation and land use to support

2060 economy

Transportation and Land Use

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Linking Land Use & Transportation

• Connections between growth and development and transportation access

• Planning land use and transportation to sustain viable natural systems

• Enhancing mobility while preserving community character

• Linking visioning to land use and transportation planning

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Heartland 2060 Consortium Grant Activities

• Natural Resource Database

• Transportation Model• LUCIS Land Use

Model• Population

Projections

• Employment Projections

• Scenarios Modeling• Public Engagement• 5-Year Strategic

Action Plan

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Goals of the Five-YearComprehensive EconomicDevelopment Strategy (CEDS)

19 GoalsSorted by Pillar

HeartlandModeling

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Transportation& Land Use

Community Resources

Environment and Natural Resources

Education, Workforce, and Economic Development

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1 2 3 4 5 6

6 Pillars of the Future Economy

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Metrics Used:• Average Annual Wage

• High School Graduation Rates

• 8th Grade Math Performance

• Gross Domestic Product

• Bed Tax Collections

• Trade Exports And Imports

• Annual Building Permits

• Vehicle Miles Traveled

• Per Lane Mile

• Average Annual Unemployment Rates

• Employment By Industry

• Wages By Industry

• Millage Rates

• Registered Nonprofit Organizations (501 (C)(3) Only)

• Voter Participation

• Per Capita Income

• House Cost Index

• Persons Living In Poverty

• Population Counts, Estimates And Projections

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Key Projects, Investments, and Opportunities

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Where Will Future Jobs Be Located?

• Regional employment centers—existing & new• Economically

productive rural lands– Agriculture– Renewable energy– Mining– Military

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Regional Economic Enginesas “Futures”

HeartlandModeling

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Principles Inherent in Each “Future”

• Heartland Core Values – #1 priority

• Regional employment centers –Emphasizes regional strengths

• Differs significantly from other “Futures” in measurable ways

• Minimizes negative impacts on environment

• Decisions based on good data

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Economic Diversification: Employers clustered in healthcare and natural

resourcesDeSoto

Wal-Mart Distribution (502) DeSoto Medical Hospital (300) Peace River Citrus (140)

Bethel Farms (87)

Sorrels Bros Packing (75)

Glades

Moore Haven Correctional (219)

Lykes Bros (100) Brighton Seminole Bingo (80) Glades Electric Co-op

(65)A Duda & Sons

(25)

Hardee

Florida Institute for Rehabilitation (550)

Walmart (288)

MOSAIC (277)

C.F. Industries (175)

Peace River Electric (137)

Hendry

US Sugar Corp (1,800)

Southern Gardens (261)

A Duda & Sons (250)

Hendry Hospital Authority (140)

Alico Citrus/Cattle (128)

Highlands

Florida Hospital Heartland (1,300)

Highlands Regional Medical Center (500)

Cross Country Auto Services (500)

Wal-Mart (450) Medical Data Systems (387)

Okeechobee

Columbia Raulerson Hospital (365)

Walpole, Inc. (300)

Larson Dairy, Inc. (225)

McArthur Farms, Inc. (160) Okeechobee Health (140)

Polk

Publix Super Markets (9,500) Wal-mart (5,100)

Lakeland Regional Medical Center (4,600)

MOSAIC (4,500)

Winter Haven Hospital (2,500)

Healthcare Sector Natural Resources Sector

Source: Enterprise Florida, 2008. Top Private Employers by County.

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Employment Projections by County

Current Economy

Avg. annual growth (2010-2040)

Avg. annual growth (2040-2060)County 2010 2040 2060

DeSoto 13,572 16,365 17,885 0.7% 0.5%

Glades 4,598 5,292 5,672 0.5% 0.4%

Hardee 11,325 13,388 14,930 0.6% 0.6%

Hendry 18,788 23,068 26,667 0.8% 0.8%

Highlands 38,111 54,110 66,570 1.4% 1.2%

Okeechobee 14,413 21,455 25,726 1.6% 1.0%

Polk 257,163 412,589 531,604 2.0% 1.4%

Total 357,970 546,266 689,054 1.8% 1.3%

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Cluster Analysis

Renewable Energy

Research &

Development

Agriculture Logistics

Life Sciences

& Healthcar

e Tourism & Ecotouris

m

Alternative Fuels

Energy Producti

onAgriculture Business

& Technolog

y

Manufacturing

Advanced Manufactu

ring

Healthcare

Agriculture

Services

TODAY

TOMORROW

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Employment Projections

CountyDeSotoGladesHardeeHendry

HighlandsOkeechobee

Polk

Employment projections (REMI PI+ using custom population projections) for each Future by…

• Accommodation and Food Services

• Administrative and Waste Management Services

• Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

• Construction• Educational Services• Farm• Federal Civilian• Federal Military• Finance and Insurance• Forestry, Fishing, and Related

Activities• Health Care and Social

Assistance• Information

• Management of Companies and Enterprises

• Manufacturing• Mining• Other Services, except Public

Administration• Professional, Scientific, and

Technical Services• Real Estate and Rental and

Leasing• Retail Trade• State and Local Government• Transportation and

Warehousing• Utilities• Wholesale Trade

Year201020112012

2013…

2060

Industry

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CE

Renewable Energy

Logistics

Alternative Fuels

Energy Producti

onManufacturin

g

Advanced Manufactur

ing

Research & Developme

nt

Healthcare & Life Sciences

Tourism & Ecotourism

Agriculture

Agriculture Business

& Technolog

y

…natural resources & healthcare

the Current Economy

Regional Economic Engines:

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CEA future that…Resembles the Present.

“If we continue with business-as-usual, including healthcare, natural resources, and ecotourism, then we can expect our future to look like…”

• Following current and historical trends in:

o populationo employmento land use

• Continuing economic prominence of agriculture, healthcare, mining, warehousing, ecotourism, and service industries

Current Economy

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EELogistics

Healthcare & Life

Sciences

Tourism & Ecotourism

Manufacturing

Agriculture

Agriculture Business

& Technolog

y

Renewable Energy

Research & Development

Alternative Fuels

Energy Production

Advanced Manufacturing

…generation & technology

the Energy Economy

Regional Economic Engines:

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EE“If we focus on supplying technologies and goods that create energy and become energy exporters, then we can expect our future to look like…”

A future that is…Focused on Energy.

• Developing an alternative fuels industry based on agriculture

• Manufacturing and installing renewable energy technologies

• Using high-tech energy technologies to become an energy exporter

• Energy efficiency and conservation technologies

Energy Economy

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TE

Renewable Energy

Research & Development

Healthcare & Life Sciences

Tourism & Ecotourism

Energy Production

Agriculture

Agriculture Business & Technology

Alternative Fuels

Logistics

Manufacturing

Advanced Manufacturing

…logistics & manufacturing

the Trade Economy

Regional Economic Engines:

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TEA future that is…Making & Moving Goods.

“If we focus on employment hubs for manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing, then we can expect our future to look like…”

• Using current and future industrial areas and logistics and trade networks

• Maintaining high capacity transportation networks for moving goods

• Enhancing distribution of air cargo

• Connecting ports• Establishing advanced

manufacturing and warehousing facilities

Trade Economy

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Futures Modeling

Employment projections are necessary to:

• Spatially allocate projected future employment

• Determine associated land use requirements

• Understand impacts to other aspects of scenario modeling (i.e. – traffic analysis, housing demand, land use, infrastructure, etc.)

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Future: [ example – “Energy Economy” ]< Brief description of the Future being assessed, such as: “a future making and exporting energy and renewable energy technologies…” >

<Relative advantage #1>

<Relative advantage #2>

Positive impacts: (opportunities)

<Relative disadvantage #1>

<Relative disadvantage #2>

Negative impacts: (risks)

Community Resources

Transportation & Land Use

Environment & Natural Resources

Education, Workforce, & Economic

Development

<Some qualitative comparison of this Future relative to the others>

D r a f t

Example assessment of Future(s)

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Future 1:Current

Economy

Future 2: Energy

Economy

Future 3: Logistics Economy

Future 4: Health-based

Economy

Heartland Future

Visioning

Scenario Planning vs. Resilient Region PlanningOur

current path

Potential different futures: How are

they different? What do we gain? What are

the tradeoffs?

Resilient Region:A tool for decision-makers:

• Where do all futures agree? • Where do they disagree?• Maximize potential opportunities?• Minimize potential risks?

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Population and Employment Projections

As inputs to scenario modeling

HeartlandModeling

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Custom Population Projections

Estimate

2011 BEBR (Medium-High Average) Custom Population

ProjectionsExtended projection Average annual

change (2011-2060)

County April 1, 2011 2020 2040 2060

DESOTO 34,708 40,000 50,000 53,005 1.08%

GLADES 12,812 15,800 21,900 23,849 1.76%

HARDEE 27,653 30,700 35,600 35,494 0.58%

HENDRY 38,908 43,200 52,400 54,026 0.79%

HIGHLANDS 98,712 116,400 151,000 163,052 1.33%

OKEECHOBEE 39,870 46,400 58,300 61,798 1.12%POLK 604,792 769,500 1,157,200 1,338,347 2.48% urban county

Six rural counties only252,663 292,500 369,200 391,224 1.12%

rural counties

All seven counties 857,455 1,062,000 1,526,400 1,729,571 2.08% entire region

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GIS Core Data Layers

• Strategic Habitat Conservation Areas• Biodiversity Hotspots• Rare Species Habitat Conservation Priorities• Under-Protected Natural Communities• Ecological Greenways and Trails

• Significant Surface Waters

• Natural Floodplain

• Wetlands

• Aquifer Recharge

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Sustainable & Viable Natural Systems: Systems Planning Efforts

are Improving

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Previous Long Range Transportation Network

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Proposed Long Range Transportation Network

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LUCIS and Scenario Modeling

Land Use Conflict Identification and Subsequent Spatial Allocation of Future

Development

HeartlandModeling

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LUCIS Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy

Main Purpose– highlight where potential conflicts may occur in the

future between competing uses of the land – agriculture, conservation, urban

– scenario planning and visioning tool Incorporates

– Land use suitability analysis • a process of identifying the most appropriate location and

distribution of future land uses– Community and expert input

• to establish goals, objectives and sub-objectives• prioritize model outputs in the final analysis

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Review: Scenarios and Scenario Planning

Present

Business-as-Usual, Trend Scenario

Alternative Future

compare

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Example Suitability Mapping

NoiseSoilsFloodAir Quality

HazardousSites

Physically Suitable for Residential Development

Identify lands physically suitable for residential development

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Review: Alternative Future Scenario Modeling

Ecological significance (examples) Water recharge Large mammal corridors Watershed protection Bird and animal habitat Etc.

The weighting process happens here.

Suitability becomes local Preference.

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LUCIS: Area-based and Economic Weights

Three weights combine: Land Use, Economic, and Technical

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Combine into Aggregate Suitability Surface

35.2% 8.3%11.1%12.7%15.7%6.4%10.5%

Note: These are the actual weights for urban suitability *

( TIP: Follow the asterisk through the next few slides. )

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LUCIS Analyzes Conflict Between theThree Major Land Uses

*

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Suitability Translates into Preference

*

Urban example

Preference

Preference

Preference

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Future Scenario Land Use Allocation in Iterations(an example)

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Six-county Heartland Regional Transportation Planning Organization

(HRTPO)

HeartlandModeling

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Regional Road System

•US 17•US 27•US 98•US 441•SR 29•SR 31•SR 62•SR 64•SR 66

• SR 70• SR 72• SR 78• SR 80• SR 82• SR 91

(Florida’s Turnpike)

• SR 636• SR 710

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Volume to Capacity (V/C)

V/C > 1.0

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Standard Transportation Model

• Cube Voyager• Zonal Data from Heartland 2060 (interim 2040)

– Employment Forecast—spatial GIS– Population Forecast—spatial GIS– Land Use Availability – Environmental Avoidance

• Modal OptionsAll from models developed under

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10.2 Miles of regional roadway were over capacity in 2014.

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45.63 Miles of regional roadway will be over capacity in 2040, a 343% increase from 2014.

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Public engagement on LRTP+5,800 website visits44 workshop participants38 committee members+14 media stories48 focus group participants+10,000 reach on Facebook

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/heartlandregionaltpo

+10,000 Reached+350 Visits to website

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heartlandregionalTPO.org