Heartland Modeling: Heartland Regional Transportation Planning Organization
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Transcript of Heartland Modeling: Heartland Regional Transportation Planning Organization
Patricia M SteedExecutive DirectorTPO Staff Services Director
HeartlandModeling
Heartland2060.com
Building a Resilient Region
Central Florida Regional Planning Council
Where Will Our Future Take Us?
Source: 1000 Friends of Florida
Developed landConserved land
20602005
Sources: 2009 BEBR and the 2010 Census Release at http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/index.php, US Census Bureau
County/Area 1990 2000% Change 1990-
2000 2010% Change 2000-
2010
DeSoto 23,865 32,209 34.96% 34,862 8.24%
Hardee 19,499 26,938 38.15% 27,731 2.94%
Highlands 68,432 87,366 27.67% 98,786 13.07%
Okeechobee 29,627 35,910 21.21% 39,996 11.38%
Polk 405,382 483,924 19.37% 602,095 24.42%
Five County Region 546,805 666,347 21.86% 803,470 20.58%
Glades 7,591 10,576 39.32% 12,884 21.82%
Hendry 25,773 36,210 40.50% 39,140 8.09%
Seven County Region 580,169 713,133 22.92% 855,494 19.96%
Florida 12,938,071 15,982,824 23.53% 18,801,310 17.63%
Nation 248,718,302 281,424,603 13.15% 308,745,538 9.71%
Heartland 2060 Population Change
Business retention and attraction
Topic areas:
Opportunities for youth
Meeting future industry skills needs
Mix of employment opportunities
Task Force:
Economic Diversification
Infrastructure to Support Diversified
Economy
Early Learning, K-16, Lifelong Education
Key Issues:
Opportunities for children of the
Heartland to learn and work locally
Expand access to adult education, alternative learning, and lifelong
improvement
Creating a 2060 workforce today and
tomorrow
Utilities (including broadband)
Topic areas:
Transportation
Energy infrastructure
Business climate
Improve low graduation and achievement rates
Education, Workforce, and Economic Development
Education, Workforce, and Economic Development
Water supply
Topic areas:
Water quality
Conservation, drought protection, and water
storage
Restoration and management
Task Force:
Water
Sustainable and Viable Natural Systems
Agriculture
Energy/Climate Change
Key Issues:
Sustainability
Changing markets
Linkage to conservation
Conservation (species and habitat)
Topic areas:
Management (fire, water, habitat, recreational)
Integrity of natural systems (preservation
and restoration)
Future energy production
Clean energy
Carbon impacts
Migration from the coast
Way of life
Environment and Natural Resources
Task Force: Environment and Natural Resources
Promote healthy communities
Topic areas:
Improve access to and quality of health care
Expand health care industry
Task Force:
Health Care
Cultural Identity
Key Issues:
Topic areas:
Maintain existing strong sense of community
Maintain rural character with access to desirable
urban amenities
Expand cultural opportunities to
increase retention of youth
Community Resources
Community Resources
Balance in urban land uses and conservation
land uses
Topic areas:
Transportation systems prevent fragmentation
of natural systems
Infrastructure supports sustainable agriculture
Land use supports a sustainable economy
and a sustainable environment
Task Force:
Integrating with Natural Resources
Planning
Supporting Economic Development
Ensuring Multimodal Connectivity
Enhancing and Creating Sustainable
Communities
Key Issues:
Creating multimodal corridors
Connecting the Heartland with other
regions
Moving people by rail, roads, and transit
Land use to support 2060 economy
Topic areas:
Moving people to support 2060 economy
Moving goods to support 2060 economy
Promoting energy efficient land use
patternsSupporting
redevelopmentHousing affordability
and sense of place within established
communitiesImprovements to serve
the needs of new communities
Moving freight by rail, roads, and air
Transportation& Land Use
Linking transportation and land use to support
2060 economy
Transportation and Land Use
Linking Land Use & Transportation
• Connections between growth and development and transportation access
• Planning land use and transportation to sustain viable natural systems
• Enhancing mobility while preserving community character
• Linking visioning to land use and transportation planning
Heartland 2060 Consortium Grant Activities
• Natural Resource Database
• Transportation Model• LUCIS Land Use
Model• Population
Projections
• Employment Projections
• Scenarios Modeling• Public Engagement• 5-Year Strategic
Action Plan
Goals of the Five-YearComprehensive EconomicDevelopment Strategy (CEDS)
19 GoalsSorted by Pillar
HeartlandModeling
Transportation& Land Use
Community Resources
Environment and Natural Resources
Education, Workforce, and Economic Development
Tale
nt S
uppl
y &
Edu
catio
n
Inno
vatio
n &
Eco
nom
icD
evel
opm
ent
Infr
astr
uctu
re &
Gro
wth
Lea
ders
hip
Busi
ness
Clim
ate
& C
ompe
titive
ness
Civi
c &
Gov
erna
nce
Syst
ems
Qua
lity
of L
ife&
Qua
lity
Plac
es
1 2 3 4 5 6
6 Pillars of the Future Economy
Metrics Used:• Average Annual Wage
• High School Graduation Rates
• 8th Grade Math Performance
• Gross Domestic Product
• Bed Tax Collections
• Trade Exports And Imports
• Annual Building Permits
• Vehicle Miles Traveled
• Per Lane Mile
• Average Annual Unemployment Rates
• Employment By Industry
• Wages By Industry
• Millage Rates
• Registered Nonprofit Organizations (501 (C)(3) Only)
• Voter Participation
• Per Capita Income
• House Cost Index
• Persons Living In Poverty
• Population Counts, Estimates And Projections
Key Projects, Investments, and Opportunities
Where Will Future Jobs Be Located?
• Regional employment centers—existing & new• Economically
productive rural lands– Agriculture– Renewable energy– Mining– Military
Regional Economic Enginesas “Futures”
HeartlandModeling
Principles Inherent in Each “Future”
• Heartland Core Values – #1 priority
• Regional employment centers –Emphasizes regional strengths
• Differs significantly from other “Futures” in measurable ways
• Minimizes negative impacts on environment
• Decisions based on good data
Economic Diversification: Employers clustered in healthcare and natural
resourcesDeSoto
Wal-Mart Distribution (502) DeSoto Medical Hospital (300) Peace River Citrus (140)
Bethel Farms (87)
Sorrels Bros Packing (75)
Glades
Moore Haven Correctional (219)
Lykes Bros (100) Brighton Seminole Bingo (80) Glades Electric Co-op
(65)A Duda & Sons
(25)
Hardee
Florida Institute for Rehabilitation (550)
Walmart (288)
MOSAIC (277)
C.F. Industries (175)
Peace River Electric (137)
Hendry
US Sugar Corp (1,800)
Southern Gardens (261)
A Duda & Sons (250)
Hendry Hospital Authority (140)
Alico Citrus/Cattle (128)
Highlands
Florida Hospital Heartland (1,300)
Highlands Regional Medical Center (500)
Cross Country Auto Services (500)
Wal-Mart (450) Medical Data Systems (387)
Okeechobee
Columbia Raulerson Hospital (365)
Walpole, Inc. (300)
Larson Dairy, Inc. (225)
McArthur Farms, Inc. (160) Okeechobee Health (140)
Polk
Publix Super Markets (9,500) Wal-mart (5,100)
Lakeland Regional Medical Center (4,600)
MOSAIC (4,500)
Winter Haven Hospital (2,500)
Healthcare Sector Natural Resources Sector
Source: Enterprise Florida, 2008. Top Private Employers by County.
Employment Projections by County
Current Economy
Avg. annual growth (2010-2040)
Avg. annual growth (2040-2060)County 2010 2040 2060
DeSoto 13,572 16,365 17,885 0.7% 0.5%
Glades 4,598 5,292 5,672 0.5% 0.4%
Hardee 11,325 13,388 14,930 0.6% 0.6%
Hendry 18,788 23,068 26,667 0.8% 0.8%
Highlands 38,111 54,110 66,570 1.4% 1.2%
Okeechobee 14,413 21,455 25,726 1.6% 1.0%
Polk 257,163 412,589 531,604 2.0% 1.4%
Total 357,970 546,266 689,054 1.8% 1.3%
Cluster Analysis
Renewable Energy
Research &
Development
Agriculture Logistics
Life Sciences
& Healthcar
e Tourism & Ecotouris
m
Alternative Fuels
Energy Producti
onAgriculture Business
& Technolog
y
Manufacturing
Advanced Manufactu
ring
Healthcare
Agriculture
Services
TODAY
TOMORROW
Employment Projections
CountyDeSotoGladesHardeeHendry
HighlandsOkeechobee
Polk
Employment projections (REMI PI+ using custom population projections) for each Future by…
• Accommodation and Food Services
• Administrative and Waste Management Services
• Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
• Construction• Educational Services• Farm• Federal Civilian• Federal Military• Finance and Insurance• Forestry, Fishing, and Related
Activities• Health Care and Social
Assistance• Information
• Management of Companies and Enterprises
• Manufacturing• Mining• Other Services, except Public
Administration• Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services• Real Estate and Rental and
Leasing• Retail Trade• State and Local Government• Transportation and
Warehousing• Utilities• Wholesale Trade
Year201020112012
2013…
2060
Industry
CE
Renewable Energy
Logistics
Alternative Fuels
Energy Producti
onManufacturin
g
Advanced Manufactur
ing
Research & Developme
nt
Healthcare & Life Sciences
Tourism & Ecotourism
Agriculture
Agriculture Business
& Technolog
y
…natural resources & healthcare
the Current Economy
Regional Economic Engines:
CEA future that…Resembles the Present.
“If we continue with business-as-usual, including healthcare, natural resources, and ecotourism, then we can expect our future to look like…”
• Following current and historical trends in:
o populationo employmento land use
• Continuing economic prominence of agriculture, healthcare, mining, warehousing, ecotourism, and service industries
Current Economy
EELogistics
Healthcare & Life
Sciences
Tourism & Ecotourism
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Agriculture Business
& Technolog
y
Renewable Energy
Research & Development
Alternative Fuels
Energy Production
Advanced Manufacturing
…generation & technology
the Energy Economy
Regional Economic Engines:
EE“If we focus on supplying technologies and goods that create energy and become energy exporters, then we can expect our future to look like…”
A future that is…Focused on Energy.
• Developing an alternative fuels industry based on agriculture
• Manufacturing and installing renewable energy technologies
• Using high-tech energy technologies to become an energy exporter
• Energy efficiency and conservation technologies
Energy Economy
TE
Renewable Energy
Research & Development
Healthcare & Life Sciences
Tourism & Ecotourism
Energy Production
Agriculture
Agriculture Business & Technology
Alternative Fuels
Logistics
Manufacturing
Advanced Manufacturing
…logistics & manufacturing
the Trade Economy
Regional Economic Engines:
TEA future that is…Making & Moving Goods.
“If we focus on employment hubs for manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing, then we can expect our future to look like…”
• Using current and future industrial areas and logistics and trade networks
• Maintaining high capacity transportation networks for moving goods
• Enhancing distribution of air cargo
• Connecting ports• Establishing advanced
manufacturing and warehousing facilities
Trade Economy
Futures Modeling
Employment projections are necessary to:
• Spatially allocate projected future employment
• Determine associated land use requirements
• Understand impacts to other aspects of scenario modeling (i.e. – traffic analysis, housing demand, land use, infrastructure, etc.)
Future: [ example – “Energy Economy” ]< Brief description of the Future being assessed, such as: “a future making and exporting energy and renewable energy technologies…” >
<Relative advantage #1>
<Relative advantage #2>
Positive impacts: (opportunities)
<Relative disadvantage #1>
<Relative disadvantage #2>
Negative impacts: (risks)
Community Resources
Transportation & Land Use
Environment & Natural Resources
Education, Workforce, & Economic
Development
<Some qualitative comparison of this Future relative to the others>
D r a f t
Example assessment of Future(s)
Future 1:Current
Economy
Future 2: Energy
Economy
Future 3: Logistics Economy
Future 4: Health-based
Economy
Heartland Future
Visioning
Scenario Planning vs. Resilient Region PlanningOur
current path
Potential different futures: How are
they different? What do we gain? What are
the tradeoffs?
Resilient Region:A tool for decision-makers:
• Where do all futures agree? • Where do they disagree?• Maximize potential opportunities?• Minimize potential risks?
Population and Employment Projections
As inputs to scenario modeling
HeartlandModeling
Custom Population Projections
Estimate
2011 BEBR (Medium-High Average) Custom Population
ProjectionsExtended projection Average annual
change (2011-2060)
County April 1, 2011 2020 2040 2060
DESOTO 34,708 40,000 50,000 53,005 1.08%
GLADES 12,812 15,800 21,900 23,849 1.76%
HARDEE 27,653 30,700 35,600 35,494 0.58%
HENDRY 38,908 43,200 52,400 54,026 0.79%
HIGHLANDS 98,712 116,400 151,000 163,052 1.33%
OKEECHOBEE 39,870 46,400 58,300 61,798 1.12%POLK 604,792 769,500 1,157,200 1,338,347 2.48% urban county
Six rural counties only252,663 292,500 369,200 391,224 1.12%
rural counties
All seven counties 857,455 1,062,000 1,526,400 1,729,571 2.08% entire region
GIS Core Data Layers
• Strategic Habitat Conservation Areas• Biodiversity Hotspots• Rare Species Habitat Conservation Priorities• Under-Protected Natural Communities• Ecological Greenways and Trails
• Significant Surface Waters
• Natural Floodplain
• Wetlands
• Aquifer Recharge
Sustainable & Viable Natural Systems: Systems Planning Efforts
are Improving
Previous Long Range Transportation Network
Proposed Long Range Transportation Network
LUCIS and Scenario Modeling
Land Use Conflict Identification and Subsequent Spatial Allocation of Future
Development
HeartlandModeling
LUCIS Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy
Main Purpose– highlight where potential conflicts may occur in the
future between competing uses of the land – agriculture, conservation, urban
– scenario planning and visioning tool Incorporates
– Land use suitability analysis • a process of identifying the most appropriate location and
distribution of future land uses– Community and expert input
• to establish goals, objectives and sub-objectives• prioritize model outputs in the final analysis
Review: Scenarios and Scenario Planning
Present
Business-as-Usual, Trend Scenario
Alternative Future
compare
Example Suitability Mapping
NoiseSoilsFloodAir Quality
HazardousSites
Physically Suitable for Residential Development
Identify lands physically suitable for residential development
Review: Alternative Future Scenario Modeling
Ecological significance (examples) Water recharge Large mammal corridors Watershed protection Bird and animal habitat Etc.
The weighting process happens here.
Suitability becomes local Preference.
LUCIS: Area-based and Economic Weights
Three weights combine: Land Use, Economic, and Technical
Combine into Aggregate Suitability Surface
35.2% 8.3%11.1%12.7%15.7%6.4%10.5%
Note: These are the actual weights for urban suitability *
( TIP: Follow the asterisk through the next few slides. )
LUCIS Analyzes Conflict Between theThree Major Land Uses
*
Suitability Translates into Preference
*
Urban example
Preference
Preference
Preference
Future Scenario Land Use Allocation in Iterations(an example)
Six-county Heartland Regional Transportation Planning Organization
(HRTPO)
HeartlandModeling
Regional Road System
•US 17•US 27•US 98•US 441•SR 29•SR 31•SR 62•SR 64•SR 66
• SR 70• SR 72• SR 78• SR 80• SR 82• SR 91
(Florida’s Turnpike)
• SR 636• SR 710
Volume to Capacity (V/C)
V/C > 1.0
Standard Transportation Model
• Cube Voyager• Zonal Data from Heartland 2060 (interim 2040)
– Employment Forecast—spatial GIS– Population Forecast—spatial GIS– Land Use Availability – Environmental Avoidance
• Modal OptionsAll from models developed under
10.2 Miles of regional roadway were over capacity in 2014.
45.63 Miles of regional roadway will be over capacity in 2040, a 343% increase from 2014.
Public engagement on LRTP+5,800 website visits44 workshop participants38 committee members+14 media stories48 focus group participants+10,000 reach on Facebook
/heartlandregionaltpo
+10,000 Reached+350 Visits to website
heartlandregionalTPO.org