Healthcare Sector Projections Michael Wolf Employment Projection Program PMP Summit June 3, 2014.

Healthcare Sector Projections

Michael WolfEmployment Projection Program

PMP SummitJune 3, 2014

Overview

Healthcare industry output Healthcare industry employment Occupational employment

2

Nominal Output by Industry Sector: 2012

Manufacturing

Financial activities

Professional and business services

State and local government

Health care and social assistance

Retail trade

Wholesale trade

Information

Federal government

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Transportation and warehousing

Other services

Mining

Utilities

Educational services

$5,604.8

$3,778.4

$2,854.1

$2,227.0

$1,919.0

$1,391.9

$1,331.1

$1,293.8

$1,213.7

$1,086.2

$1,008.9

$871.2

$606.1

$547.9

$388.2

$271.7 3

Billions of dollars

Nominal Output by Healthcare Sector: 2012

Offices of health practitioners

Private hospitals

Nursing and residential care facilities

Outpatient, laboratory, and other ambulatory care services

Local government hospitals

Home health care services

State government hospitals

$576.7

$535.5

$184.7

$126.3

$47.0

$42.2

$33.04

Billions of dollars

Real Output Growth by Industry Sector: Projected

2012-22Construction

Wholesale trade Information Retail trade

Professional and business services

Financial activities Health care and

social assistance Transportation and warehousing Manufacturing

Mining Utilities

Leisure and hospi-tality Educational

services Other services State and local government Federal gov-

ernment

4.1%

3.7%

3.5%

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

3.1%

2.9%

2.4%

2.4%

2.3%

2.2%

2.0%

1.9%

1.3%

-1.3%5

Annual rate of change

Real Output Growth by Healthcare Sector: Projected

2012-22Home health care

servicesOutpatient, labora-

tory, and other ambulatory care

servicesOffices of health

practitioners

Nursing and resi-dential care facili-

ties

Private hospitals

Local government hospitals

State government hospitals

4.5%

4.0%

3.6%

3.0%

2.5%

0.7%

0.7%

6

Annual rate of change

Employment by Industry Sector: 2012

State and local government Professional and business

services Health care and social assis-tance

Retail trade Leisure and hospitality

Manufacturing Financial activities

Other services Wholesale trade

Construction Transportation and warehousing

Educational services Federal government

Information Mining

Utilities

19,103.2

17,930.2

16,971.8

14,875.3

13,745.8

11,918.9

7,786.3

6,174.5

5,672.8

5,640.9

4,414.7

3,346.9

2,814.0

2,677.6

800.5

554.2 7

Thousands of wage and salary jobs

Employment by Healthcare Sector: 2012

General medical and surgical hospitals; private

Offices of physicians


Offices of dentists

General medical and surgical hospitals; local

Offices of physical, occupational and speech therapists, and audiologists

Medical and diagnostic laboratories

General medical and surgical hospitals; state

Outpatient mental health and substance abuse centers

Ambulance services

Offices of chiropractors

Offices of optometrists

Offices of all other health practitioners

All other ambulatory health care services

Offices of mental health practitioners (except physicians)

4,417.0

2,391.1

1,198.6

853.3

647.6

305.4

234.0

190.7

190.3

162.0

124.0

115.5

114.2

103.8

64.58


Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected

2012-22

Health care and social assistance Professional and business services

Construction Leisure and hospitality

Retail trade State and local government

Financial activities Educational services

Other services Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing Mining

Utilities Information

Federal government Manufacturing

4,994.1

3,482.8

1,622.1

1,289.2

1,090.9

929.0

751.0

675.3

648.9

470.4

327.3

121.2

-56.4

-65.2

-407.5

-549.59


Employment Change by Healthcare Sector: Projected

2012-22




Offices of dentists

Offices of physical, occupational and speech ther-apists, and audiologists


Outpatient mental health and substance abuse cen-ters


Ambulance services







715.7

673.1

671.2

239.5

162.0

83.7

68.1

67.6

58.3

37.1

34.9

32.0

18.6

15.2

15.0 10


Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected

2012-22

Health care and social assistance Construction

Educational services Professional and business services

Mining Other services

Financial activities Leisure and hospitality

Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing

Retail trade State and local government

Information Manufacturing

Utilities Federal government

2.6%

2.6%

1.9%

1.8%

1.4%1.0%

0.9%0.9%

0.8%

0.7%0.7%

0.5%

-0.2%

-0.5%

-1.1%

-1.6%11

Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment

Total nonagricultura

l wage and salary annual growth= 1.0%

Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected

2012-22



Offices of physical, occupational and speech therapists, and audiologists

Ambulance services


Outpatient mental health and substance abuse centers





Offices of dentists





4.8%

4.8%

4.3%

3.1%

3.1%

3.1%

3.1%

2.6%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

1.4%

0.8%

0.2%12

Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment

Healthcare Sector Employment, 1990-projected

2022

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2022

5000

7000

9000

11000

13000

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

13

(Continued on next

slide)

Percent Change in Employment

by Major Occupational Group

Healthcare support

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Construction and extraction

Personal care and service

Computer and mathematical

Community and social service

Business and financial operations

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

Education, training, and library

Legal

Life, physical, and social science

28.1%

21.5%

21.4%

20.9%

18.0%

17.2%

12.5%

12.5%

11.1%

10.7%

10.1%14

Projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%

Percent Change in Employment

by Major Occupational Group

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Food preparation and serving related

Transportation and material moving

Protective service

Architecture and engineering

Sales and related

Management

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Office and administrative support

Production

Farming, fishing, and forestry

9.6%

9.4%

8.6%

7.9%

7.3%

7.3%

7.2%

7.0%

6.8%

0.8%

-3.4%15

Projected 2012-22

Average, all occupations = 10.8%

(Continued)

Employment Change by Major Occupational

GroupHealthcare practitioners and technical

Office and administrative support

Construction and extraction

Healthcare support

Personal care and service

Food preparation and serving related

Sales and related

Education, training, and library

Business and financial operations

Transportation and material moving

Building and grounds cleaning and main-tenance

1,732.9

1,534.0

1,301.9

1,155.8

1,122.9

1,101.8

1,095.5

1,015.8

898.1

790.6

691.0

16

Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

(Continued on next

slide)

Employment Change by Major Occupational

GroupComputer and mathematical

Management

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Community and social service

Protective service

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Architecture and engineering

Legal

Life, physical, and social science

Production

Farming, fishing, and forestry

685.8

636.6

531.2

408.8

263.0

180.6

179.6

132.9

125.7

75.6

-32.2 -32.2

17

Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22(Continued)

Fastest Growing Occupations

18

Percent change, projected 2012-22

Median annual wages, May 2012

$83,580

$19,910

$20,820

$39,170

$45,430

$65,860

$28,220

$53,240

$56,800

$52,160

Industrial-organizational psychologists

Personal care aides

Home health aides

Insulation workers, mechanical

Interpreters and translators

Diagnostic medical sonographersHelpers--brickmasons, blockmasons,

stonemasons, and tile and marble set-ters

Occupational therapy assistants

Genetic counselors

Physical therapist assistants

53.4%

48.8%

48.5%

46.7%

46.1%

46.0%

43.0%

42.6%

41.2%

41.0%

Median annual wages, May 2012

$19,910

$65,470

$21,110

$20,820

$18,260

$24,420

$32,410

$30,580

$22,320

$29,990

Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

Occupations with the Largest Job Growth

Personal care aides

Registered nurses

Retail salespersons

Home health aides

Combined food preparation and serv-ing workers, including fast food

Nursing assistantsSecretaries and administrative assis-tants, except legal, medical, and ex-

ecutiveCustomer service representatives

Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners

Construction laborers

580.8

526.8

434.7

424.2

421.9

312.2

307.8

298.7

280.0

259.8

19

Contact Information

Michael WolfBranch Chief

Employment Projections Programwww.bls.gov/emp

[email protected]

Healthcare Sector Projections Michael Wolf Employment Projection Program PMP Summit June 3, 2014.

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Transcript of Healthcare Sector Projections Michael Wolf Employment Projection Program PMP Summit June 3, 2014.