Health earth anthropocene_isee_2015
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CRICOS #00212K Prof Colin Butler 27 th ISEE conference, Sao Paulo September 2, 2015 + Introducing Health in the “Anthropocene”
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Transcript of Health earth anthropocene_isee_2015
CRICOS #00212K
Prof Colin Butler
27th ISEE conference, Sao Paulo September 2, 2015
+ Introducing Health in the “Anthropocene”
CRICOS #00212K
I have no actual or potential competing financial interests in the last 3 years, including but not limited to: grant support; employment (past, present, or firm offer of future); patents (pending or applied); payment for expert witness or testimony; personal financial interests by the authors, immediate family members, or institutional affiliations that may gain or lose financially through this presentation, other than travel funding from the University of Canberra, I have no consultancies, board positions, patent and royalty arrangements, stock shares, or bonds.
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Integrated Science for Sustainable Transitionshttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/events/
150428-IGBP.html
State of the art lecture on sustainability science.. Yet nothing on health (including in Future Earth)
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Planetary BoundariesA safe operating space
for humanity
Steffen et al, 2015
What does this mean for society? And for health?
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8 institutional co-founders6 countries + UNU
UO FdUC
Au
MU NZ
ULUK VU
Ca
UCSD US
UWUSUNU
IIGH
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A second “circle”
PHFIn
icddr,b Bd
ILRIKe
USP Br
PHFIn
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and more
PHFIn
icddr,b Bd
ILRIKe
USP Br
PHFIn
?
?
?
?
?
? ?
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H-Earth at ISEE
Wael Al-Delaimy
US
Colin SoskolneCanada/
AUS
Colin ButlerAUS
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452 - INTRODUCTION TO HEALTH-EARTH AND THE ANTHROPOCENECOLIN BUTLER - UNIVERSITY OF CANBERRA
601 - LIMITS TO ADAPTATIONKRISTIE L. EBI - UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
360 - EPIDEMIOLOGICAL METHODS IN GLOBAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT: WHICH PARADIGM AND IN WHOSE BEST INTERESTS?
COLIN SOSKOLNE - UNIVERSITIES OF ALBERTA AND CANBERRA
1022 - ETHICAL ASPECTS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGISTS IN THE ANTHROPOCENE
WAEL AL-DELAIMY - UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO
CRICOS #00212KNature, 2003
Health in
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July, 2015
Reviewers included.. Colin D Butler, Trevor Hancock
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ISEE and Health-Earth
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Prof A.J. (Tony) McMichael1942-2014
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A/Prof Colin D Butler ([email protected]) National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health Australian National
University, Australia
Three wise epidemiologists Nikko Toshogu Shinto Shrine, Tokyo.
Photo: Rangaku 1976, 2008
Limits to growth and public health: where is environmental epidemiology?
APOLOGIES: future generations
23rd ISEE meeting, Barcelona,
September, 2011
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ISEE/ISES/ISIAQ, Basel, Switzerland, August 21, 2013
Professor Colin Butler(Australian Research Council Future Fellow)
Limits to growth and environmental epidemiology: a conceptual framework
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FROM
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Trevor Hancock, Colin Sosoklne
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“eco-social” determinants of health
Focus on either social or ecological often incomplete – need to see the inter-relationships, otherwise policy solution lacking
Health issue Illustrative determinant
social ecological
rural suicide (India)
indebtedness drought
conflict (Yemen) “political” water scarcity
Rwandan genocide 1994
ethnic tension, “youth bulge”
fertile land scarcity
ebola (West Africa)
poor health services, poverty
deforestation (?) (more contact, ?viral spillover)
migration
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“surges exceeding 11m in Tampa and 7m in Dubai .. non-negligible probabilities, especially towards end of century.”
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Warning
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“Reuters regularly uses the term ‘economic migrants.’
We need to pressure them into using the more appropriate and descriptive ‘freeloading parasites’.’’
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3 case studies
1.Syria2.Food prices3.Bangladesh 2100
CRICOS #00212KPNAS - 2015
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Damascus, 2014. Line for food aid from UN Relief and Works Agency in a great city - large parts of which have been destroyed by civil war, along with basic food supply infrastructure
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“a risk multiplier”
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2. Food prices
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decline in price due to Green Revolution
oil, speculation, rice panic
extreme events
World food price index (deflated) (1961-2015) (data FAO)
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3. Bangladesh 2100
CRICOS #00212KRohingya and Bengali refugees – May 2015
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New methods
Integrate large scale social and environmental “indicators”
For certain locations, times, environmental influences.
Scale (1-5)social cohesiveness environmental stresschance of a catalyst (eg assassination)develop metrics and models that reflect/predict chance of population “corrections” (a euphemism)
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New methods
Rank (1-5) by historical data, expert judgement
Eg Rwanda 1961, 1994SyriaYemenDarfur (Sudan), South SudanArakan (Myanmar)Bangladesh (future)
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Taboos
Scientific reticenceGovernmental resistance
But
Whenever we encourage “development” or “resilience” we have many of these ideas somewhere in our mind
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Emerging issue in global health curricula but far too little, given topic’s importance
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Vatican official calls for moral awakening on global warmingApril 28, 2015
