Health and Safety Executive - UK Data Service...UK Data Service; 2016-11-25; Labour Force and Annual...

Health and Safety Executive

© Crown Copyright, HSE 2016 HSL: HSE’s Health and Safety Laboratory

Spatial and temporal modelling of Great Britain’s workforce25th November 2016

Oliver Gunawan and Kirsty Forder

HSL: HSE’s Health and Safety Laboratory © Crown Copyright, HSE 2016 © Crown Copyright, HSE 2016

• HSE is the governmental body for regulation of health and safety in the workplace

AND• Regulation of workplace

activities that may affect the health and safety of the general public.


Data Analytics


The National Population Database

• HSE undertakes major hazard modelling and societal risk work as part of COMAH (Control of Major Accident Hazards) and LUP duties

• Societal risk is a measure of likelihood of harm to a group of people, its estimation requires a knowledge of the density and distribution of populationDevelopment of the National Population Database


NPD example


NPD Workplace layer

• Based on Inter‐Departmental Business Register (IDBR) from ONS

• Population and industrial category information

• Mapped to postcode

BUT• Commercial sensitivity

• Assumes employees work 24/7

• Assumes all employees work in a single location

@Crown copyright and database rights (2016) Ordnance Survey 100021025


Labour Force Survey (LFS)

• During LFS Q2, work pattern questions are asked.

Normal period of work includes:Day, Evening, NightResponder usually works Saturday, Sunday

Industry sector in main jobSIC2007 letter A‐U

Where do you work?Governmental Office Region 2 and 3 combined (10 regions)


Labour Force Survey

• Employment proportions were calculated for each region, industry category and working time.

Category Industry types

Primary • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing• Mining and Quarrying

• Electricity, Gas…• Water, sewage, waste

Secondary • Manufacturing • Construction

Services

• Wholesale and retail trade• Transportation• Accommodation and food• Information and communication• Finance and insurance

• Real Estate• Professional, scientific, tech.• Admin and support• Arts and entertainment• Other services

Public Services

• Public admin• Education

• Human health and social work


Working patterns by industry

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

days evenings nights weekends

Prop

ortio

n

PrimarySecondaryServicesPublic Services


Geographies for population modelling

• To preserve data sensitivity, population data has been attached to boundaries.

• 2011 census Workplace Zones were selected for use.

• Workplace Zones are a new output geography that align with other census geographies.

MSOAOAWZ



Creating the NPD workplace layer

1. Use LFS to create workplace multipliersBy time of day/week, industry group & region

2. Join LFS multipliers to IDBR pointsBy industry group & region

5. Disclosure controlAs agreed with ONS.By workplace zone & industry

6. Aggregate populations to workplace zoneBy location:point-in-polygon

3. Calculate workforce populationsUsing IDBR total population and LFS multipliers

4. Assign workplace zone codes toIDBR pointsBy location: point-in-polygon


NPD layer overview



Temporal populations

Day

Eve

Night


Applications – Impact assessment

Natural hazard impact assessment: a 1953 type flooding event

•Impacted populations calculated

•Multi‐Coloured Manual used to estimate economic cost of damage based on flood depth

•Commuting costs and loss of employment calculated


Applications – Economic assessment

• Economic impact assessment of industrial accidents

•Gross Value Added used to estimate economic impact due to closure and rebuild

• Input‐output tables used to estimate indirect costs due to business closure.



Summary

• The LFS Q2 data has improved NPD workforce population modelling.

• The latest NPD workforce layer now has populations projected for different times of the day and week.

• Future work will look at:– Adjusting populations based on shift work.– Delocalised employees.


Questions and contacts

[email protected]

[email protected]

http://www.hsl.gov.uk/what‐we‐do/better‐decisions/geoanalytics/national‐population‐database

Health and Safety Executive - UK Data Service...UK Data Service; 2016-11-25; Labour Force and Annual...

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