SECTION I

PART A:

1-IIM MBA CNAM Project Consulting

P.B.S.P.B.S. PDPDFlood

ScenarioFlood

Scenario

Productdescription

choice

Productdescription

choice

MBAProducts

MBAProducts

OrganizationProducts

OrganizationProducts

(World Water Week 200, SIWI)

SolutionSolution

Content: Product Breakdown Structure (PBS)

PFDPFD

GS RADJOU

Amendment to previous slide

GOALS: HELP TO GENERATE MORE SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE SAME BREAKDOWN OF ASSETS.A RE-INGINEERING SOLUTION COMBINES 2 MAIN BRANCHES:LEFT BRANCH : ORGANIZATION PRODUCTS/SERVICESRIGHT BRANCH: MBA PRODUCTS/SERVICESI HAVE SUGGESTED THE COMBINED ORGANIZATION RESULTING OF FUSION OF 2 SINGLE ENTITIES (COMBINED, GROUPING OR INTEGRATION)SO, AFTER THE AMENDMENT IS MADE INSTEAD OF MBA PRODUCT REPLACED BY ORGANIZATION PRODUCTS.

GS RADJOU (MY OWN PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN DEALING WITH VARIOUS STYLES OF PROJECT MANGEMENT WORLWIDE; MY OWN MIX BETWEEN PMBOK, PRINCE 2, ITDG.... (05/04/2010)

2-Product Flow Description

ScenarioScenario

PBSPBS

ProductDescription

ProductDescription

ProductFlow

Diagram

ProductFlow

Diagram

SolutionSolution

ProductDescription

choices

ProductDescription

choices

GS Radjou

A2-INTRODUCTION

I-DEFINITIONS AND ANALYSIS

a)General definitionsStrategy:A set of tactics, consider the high strategy (politics) and low strategy (Policies). Also, a tactic can behigh or low. These are the operations in the supply chain management. Also, in some planning a lower level of the strategy can be the top level of the tactic.

Scenario: Production of rose tinted or apocalytic predictions (Ref.: Michel Godet, from anticipation to action, A handbook of strategic prospective, UNESCO Publishing, p.58 and « the future is multiple and several potential futures are possible… », p. 57)

An event: E. Borel definition, … { « abstract entity, whose characteristic is to happen (status =1) or not to happen  --isolated event (status=0) »--p.59…}

Data:Raw Data from a supermarket check out counter can be processed and organizes to produce meanningful information such a the total unit of sales of…[Data:…331 Brite Dish Soap 1.29, 863 BL Hill Coffee 4.69, 113 Ginger Root .85…. 331 Brite Dish Soap 1.29…Information: Sales Region: Northwest, Store: superstore # 122, Item: 331, Description: Brite Dish Soap, Units Sold: 7156, YTD Sales: $9,231.24 (Kenneth Laudon, Management Information System

(MIS), Managing the Digital firm, Chapter 1, p.15)

Useful for deployment

Useful for starters

Useful for binary systems

Useful for societies

b)Water

H2O2

Water properties linked with the free electronic doublet

O--

H+ H+d+

d+

2d-

2d-O--

H+ H+

2d-

As a rule, project management goals are to induce changes in organizations, and because changes deal with ressources, processes and ouputs. It would be nicer to understand these forces that are shaping the present environment in order to take a rational decision (manage with full rational controls). For instance, if these ressources are water in all their contexts, an expertise in water would help. Similarly, if it is a business activity, some knowledge of Market theories (Michael Porter,...)would help to master the dynamic of changes in a rational way.

Embedding my project organization

GS RADJOUAddition: 05/04/2010

Basic box process

Process

inputs Ouputs

Feed-back

Very cybernetics way to organise matters and energies in all kind of organization. All, businesses are organized in that way in order to sustain production activities, product and services orientations whether results porientate or not.With a driver toppling the whole basic box (either the: chief, boss,...or committe). It at the base of the creative engineering and the knowledge of the interactive forces betwwen all these elements

GS RADJOU Addition: 05/04/2010

c)Samples of Time Bombs for the Sustainability Development

98%2%

Hazards

WaterscarcityWater

scarcity

No sanitation

No sanitation

NoSafe water

NoSafe water

33 11

3 3 billion individuals

Water Bornediseases

Water Bornediseases

80%diseases

80%diseases

AsiaAsia

4/5Water related

disasters

4/5Water related

disasters

20 secondChild +

20 secondChild +

Contaminatedwater

Contaminatedwater

DrougthDrougth FloodFlood

Water issuesWater issues

Energycrisis

Energycrisis

FoodcrisisFoodcrisis

Populationgrowth

Populationgrowth

EnvironmentDevelopmentEnvironmentDevelopment

Financialcrisis

Financialcrisis

ClimatechangeClimatechange

US/EU rest of the world

US/EU rest of the world

Few facts and dataFew facts and data

H20

SolidLiquidGas

Biodiversity

Biodiversity

CO2reduction

CO2reduction

US$US$Oil

crisisOil

crisis

War forWater ?War forWater ?

WashingtonConsensus

Water traded good

WashingtonConsensus

Water traded good

AsianDeltaAsianDelta

AfricaAfrica

CoastsCoasts

IslandsIslands

ArticArticGlobal

WarmingGlobal

Warming

e)Pareto Analysis (I)

FloodFlood

EarthquakeVolcanic eruptionTsunamiLandslideHurricaneSnow meltSurge Rain…..

EarthquakeVolcanic eruptionTsunamiLandslideHurricaneSnow meltSurge Rain…..

Interesting pointswith WAER project:

the waste water treatment during a disaster

Most disasters include a flood

d) Water need contexts in flood prone regions

Urban and rural zones/ Urban and rural zones/

DisasterDisaster

NaturalNaturalWARWAR

TechnologyTechnologyIndustrialIndustrial

OthersOthers

20 litres2 litres.2 litres.

? DisasterDisasterTechnologyTechnology

GeographyGeography

Humangeography

PhysicalgeographyPhysical

geography

Risk= asset x probability x vulnerability

f)Pareto analysis (II)

WaterWater

MalariaThyphoidPoisoningCholera

….

MalariaThyphoidPoisoningCholera

….

Interesting pointswith WAER project:

the vector disease reduction

Water the source of most of our diseases

g)Water needs in towns andfields in disaster zones

WATER AERO EMERGENCY RELIEF OR PROJECT WAER IS AWATER AERO EMERGENCY RELIEF OR PROJECT WAER IS AWATER SUPPLY FOR PEOPLE AT RISK OF FLOOD WATER SUPPLY FOR PEOPLE AT RISK OF FLOOD (AND A STRATEGY ACCESS TO FRESH WATER)(AND A STRATEGY ACCESS TO FRESH WATER)______________________________________________________________________________________

+It is a Project benchmarking as no corporates ever try before to +It is a Project benchmarking as no corporates ever try before to deliver fresh water from aircrafts through 2 oz pocket water purifier deliver fresh water from aircrafts through 2 oz pocket water purifier air drops over flooded lands by using drones, microlights,.... air drops over flooded lands by using drones, microlights,....

+It is in the right new thinking and the innovation proned by the UN+It is in the right new thinking and the innovation proned by the UNto reduce flood increases in a world of global warmingto reduce flood increases in a world of global warming

A3-GENERALITIES

a)Project sources

W orld C oF as h ion b u s in es s

P rod u c t ion on F orecas tL ean an d sp eed con cern s

A IRA irlin e m ea ls /d u ty free g ood s M an u fac tu re r

U s e o f as s em b ly w areh ou s e an d tro lliesT im e p lan com p u te r

P ro jec t R A N DU S A ir fo rc e

A s tra teg y ac c es s to b ases ...N eg o tia tion d rive rs

G lobal corporates

F lood c on c ep tW ate r s u p p ly M od e l

1 0 0 km d is ch arg e z on eP o llu t ion c on tro l

In d ica to rB as ic o f p rod u c tion

S o il w a te r In filtra t ion cap ac ityR ive r d isc h arg esD is c h arg e cu rves

H yd rog rap h

Science of Hydrology

P ers on a l exp erien c es

In te rn e t

S IW I

Others

S O U R C E SB u ild -u p

m ate ria ls fo r th e p ro jec t

b)Main business sources

World Co:-Business: Japanese women’s apparel retailer World Co Ltd (« World ») -President, Hidezo Teri, believes in speed and responsiveness for his business-Championing the SPARC, the Super –Production- Apparel Retail –Consumer- Satisfaction-Start with new Brands and monitor them, then improve the production system, -Insure coordination with planning, production, development and marketing, and allows each store keeping units (SKU) to make better production: lead-times and volumes-Importance of cost in the space (Real Estate): influencing the retailer organization: independant –stand alone stores-, shops in fashion malls –grouping of stores in a building, or shops within Department stores. Stores are targeting different kind customers, implying various brands (40)-Lead-time for replenishment (from the order to the delivery: 2 weeks-Design, produce and ship new products to the retail stores within 6 weeks-Interesting point: WORLD produces on forecasted demands. The reference store for the Forecast is Obermeyer (OberMeyer forecast method) –forecasts based on previous season, then through adaption with P-D-C-A and also the annual meeting in Japan. (OberMeyerVote meeting)-Dream project: cost cutting, reduction of inventory and the quality of the SPARC network

[Ref.: Dr Schallembaum IIM MBA CNAM, HavardBusiness Cases, Operation Management Case Book]

c)No waste Production Principle

Energy

Information

Products

Waste

RechargeReuseRetention

3R System

d) Sample of production on forecast

Water crisisunit

mangement

Water crisisunit

mangement

Predictionand outputs

Predictionand outputs

P-D-C-AP-D-C-AAnnualmeeting

Annualmeeting

Idea: nobody can manage water stocks, butif we know where water is in quantity and quality, we may be able to make something

Forecastlike the Ober

Meyer method

Raw material/

labor inspectorate

Raw material/

labor inspectorate

Lead-times,CommunicationManagementTransport

Start

Checkedforecasts

Waterlocations:

look-out pointBase, MIS)

Waterlocations:

look-out pointBase, MIS)

New deci-sion to pro-duce for nextyear forecast

HEAD-QUARTERS

Lead-times,CommunicationManagementTransport IFM

branchesIFM

branches Overseas

Verticalintegration

Verticalintegration

Outsourcing

Outsourcing

home

Foreign country

End

Lead-times,CommunicationManagementTransport

Lead-times,CommunicationManagementTransport

Needsand representation

GS RADJOU

e)Business source: CEMEX (dealing with changes: diversity & sustainability)

CEMEX: 98 years old Mexican multinational, Ready Mix Concrete and Cement, (based in Monterrey), 53 Plants around the World (including USA,…, Phillipines)

-Business characteristics: Cemex: concrete business asset intensive and of low efficiencywith umpredictable demands

-8000 grades of mixed concretes and forward them to 6 regional mixing plants, each with its own fleet of trucks.

-customer routinely changed ½ of their orders, sometimes only hours before delivery and it may be re-routed because of weather changes, trafic jams or problems with building permits, Cemex’phone lines were often jammed as customers, truckers and dispatchers tried to get orders strait…

-Boss: Laurenzo, Zambrano grand son of the founder.1985 implement IT in the business From no technology to the use of a build in system to link trucks with GPS to monitordispatchers for location, direction, speed of every vehicules.

-Customers, distributors and suppliers can use internet to place orders directly, check Shipment delivery times, and review payement records without having to telephoneA customer representative services (Source: Kenneth Laudon,

Management Information System)

Note: What is humanitarian is looking like CEMEX dealing with customer uncertainties

Criticisms on humanitarian actions for not being proactive, reacting to events, the lack of anticipatory mangement

The world of hazard management like the CEMEX business is fullOf sources of risks and uncertainties

WAER project is a possible model of fresh water delivery to manage these sources of uncertainties to the supply of fresh water during the flood

f)Today firm Management Information System

ManagementManagement

OrganizationOrganization

TechnologyTechnology

MISMIS Business solutionBusiness solution

Business challengesBusiness challengesDevelopfast fashionstrategy

Develop design and productionprocesses

Deploy inventoryreplesnishementprocess

(Source adaptation:Kenneth Laudon—MIS--)

Water Aero Emergency Relief Information System [Source adaptation: MIS]

EnvironmentEnvironmentCost cuttingEnergy savingJob creationCRS

Water infiltrationMalaria reductionWater truckingFlood peopleTheir expectations

Real time versus forecast (new: 10/06/2010)

Idea origin: development of i-pod → into i-pad allied with google earth make it a usefull tool for huanitarin actions on the disaster fields

I gave it is new name: open field virtual classrom (ofvc)It describes the life of a master of emergency at headquarters instructing or educating (perhaps simply a mean of the daily environment) staffs or citizens at very remote places -in these disaster zones – how to survive in the real time. There is no forecasts or predictions (this tool could be under construction) or software modelling , but all instructions are in real time.

g)Project Business Model

Watertrucking

Watertrucking

DroneDrone

CUSTOMER

BASE

CUSTOMER

BASE

CRMCRM

FloodEvent Water supply

Decoupling

More than one alternative to Water truckingData

baseDatabase

SchoolsSchools

HospitalsHospitals

BusinessesBusinesses

TouristsTourists

ArmiesArmies

HouseholdsHouseholds

disabling

enabling 2 oz PocketWater Purifier

2 oz PocketWater Purifier

GS RADJOU

h)Planning ressources (a conciliatory match betwen needs and supplies)

PlanningResources

PlanningResources

SpaceSpace

TimeTime CalendarCalendar

Assumptions on flood typesAssumptions on flood types

Classes ofactivities or standardWork ?

Classes ofactivities or standardWork ?

Coverageof the dark zones (uneasy to forecast)

Coverageof the dark zones (uneasy to forecast)Flood

increaseFloodincrease

Product Base Planning

Product Base Planning

Finish with tasks And allocate resources: Manpower per hoursFinish with tasks And allocate resources: Manpower per hours

MaterialsMaterialsGS RADJOU

i)Contacts linked with the projecti)Contacts linked with the project

List locations or contacts for specification (or other related documents) here for teamwork

SIWI or UN Contacts:

+ SIWI: Administration: pernilla.konto@siwi.org+ SIWI CEO: Anders Berntell, anders.berntell@siwi.org+ Project Manager: katarina.andrzejewska@siwi.org+ Dave trouba: www.who.int+ Joshia Paglia: joshia.paglia@siwi.org + Dr. Ahmadzai Husamuddin, Tel: + 46-8-698 1145, www.naturvardsverket.se+ Director of the Flood division (IFR HelpDesk): Avinash C. Tyagi+ Dyamashita: technician at WMO (Flood division)+ Joachim Saalmueller, Technical Support Unit, Helpdesk for Integrated Flood Management+ Follow the link: WMO homepage Integrated Flood ResourceIFR HelpDesk

various links: Flood policy and Flood measures in link with the project windows

Contacts Outside SIWIIBM Chief Technology Officer (Mr Williams)The Federal Emergency Management AssistanceUS Geology Dept (Flood Marketing and training division)US Rothchild Fondation for Education

Other various contacts

j)For more info: referenceMains1-Institute International of Management (IIM CNAM MBA)=>Lectures of MBA topics representing the real world of Corporate multinationals2-Stockholm Water International Institute (SIWI): =>World Water Making policy organization and my last participation in 2009 for the consulting project (SIWI Administration, communication officer Joshia Paglia: joshia.paglia@siwi.org)3-World Meteorological Organization (WMO): =>about forecasts and better predictions (influence of lead-times), meeting in Costa Rica in 2006 NOAA, USAID and WMO and wmo@wmo.int (WMO Homepage)4-IFR HelpDesk (WMO/GWP Flood division): =>about IFR HelpDesk (Director C. Avanashi of the flood division or type directly on the internet « GS RADJOU » for my individual contribution with Dyamashita)5-Water subsidies and Water Human rights=>Collective participation in decision making process: SIWI Administration, Dr. Ahmadaza Husamuddin and UN expert on Water Human rightsIn additionFEMA (US Federal Emergency Management Assistance):=>I am registered in their database and I have regular contacts with the Flood assistance, adaptation and mitigations services. US Fed Geology Survey Department:=>Through their Marketing department, I learned about their flood softwareInternational Business Machine (IBM): =>Mr William, Chief Technology Officer, I shared through emails with the CFO a common vision of a water infrastructure service: IBM Water leadership, really.GreenBizz (Green Business):=>Organization that runs a Webmedia front runner in matter of discovery new entries in the world of green stewardship in all framework of activities

II-PROJECT COMMUNICATION

a)Project Media attention

Emotions and sadnessCountry crisisCrisis managementTime managementWeather and hydrologyPeople activitiesTaking decisionLooking for new horizonsDrowning peopleTerrorism….Business and investment

b)Data on Natural disasters2009: 55 millions people suffer severe stresses with disasters (Mr J. M. Jarraud, WMO PresidentRef: WMO website)

2008: -214 millions humans affected by natural disasters, -235 000 killed ones -Total Billing: $190 billions in damages -Disaster Costs increase since 1960 -Number of dead stabilized at: 200 000/year -United Nations warned to take specific actions since 2005, if not there is a risk to jeopardize development

A few disaster figures

International community tools against disasters

a) Sattelites:-give the alert (raise the alarm)-inform the rescuers of disater places-play a major role in dispatching the aids

b) Computers:-phenomenal speeds of the calulators help to deal with the need to treat huge flux of data. – (For instance Meteo France 2007, Net SX 6R, treats 2300 billions of operations per second.)

c) Sattelite network:-250 sattelites with tools to observe the Earth –up to 10 tools-

-d)Forecast improvement:-A 4 day forecast is equivalent to a 1 day forecast , 15 years ago

EnvironmentResearch« Le Monde,Special Science »,Nov-Dec 2009p-42

b)Project flood communication

DRINKING WATER SUPPLYAND

FLOOD PLAN

Project description in non technical terms

(Personal description from what is known through the media attention-probably, it is not too different from the real world of flood experiences)

When there is a flood, it can takes a long-time before the international community reacts, when it should act to supply water to people at risk of flood (for instance when an international assistance is possible).

Meanwhile, the death tolls increase. People dies not from the disaster itself , but the aftermath of the disaster by drinking contaminated water.

Also, the queueing of refugees on roads (land, sea and air) is a media attention and real with unexpected globalization movments where people participation is very low.

It is a case for humanitarian actions. Specifically through the light of UN policies to substitute faulty governments to supply assistance to their own citizens.

Description in non technical terms [From rejection factors to the engineering needs]

–Negative reasons–A lack of autonomy: in the community survival, but instead dependance and assistance –Due to the short term anticipation. Good flood plans should advocate for self-sufficiency,

reliance and independance. Not same causes imply same answers–Technical e.g. water trucking is disabled, infrastructures are out of order…–Political: conflicts, authorisations…–Legal proceedings: Orders (emergency evacuations, executive decret, Emergency

Alert Warnings…–Environmental: sand bags, walls are environmental uncompatible–Cultural: drones and water purifiers are technologies for everybody –developped or

emerging countries–Economy: drone: $30, pocket water purifier: $10–GDP: diseases and deaths reduce the country task force and revenues–International projects: in principle, some water project horizon lines are too long (it is

one option of the vicious cycle of the pover chain)–Displacement: increase of refugees during a disaster fleeing the flood zones –Urbanism: impervious surface and mass productions. Flat surfaces

Description of the project in non-technical termsI think, there is an analogy to be drawn with what François Careme, Programme Network and Energy Management Director at EDF-The French National Energy Company- when he said in Environment Research « Le Monde, Special Science », Nov-Dec 2009 p-41 the following points helping me to comment for debating of my project orientation,and, again by analogy. 1°-…« Recours grandissant aux énergies renouvelables pourraient conduire à un accroissement des perturbations du réseau Électrique »…Due to the fact that the wind flows are not continuous –wind is an intermediate energy, illimited but variable in flows- (I think it is correct, because networks may be compatible to a certain limit)

2°-….also, the text adds …« Germany is number one in the world for the electricity generated from wind mills-Decentralized production units-, but supplies are often disrupted. There is great disavantadge, when the wind falls down, the electrical power supply would be annuled if the germans did not introduce a kind of compensationIn the ways of more traditonal ways to produce electricity »…(I think it is correct, we are never sure when the windwill stop blowing-there are still a solution with batteries to stock energy, I suppose)

As I understood the text, german households proeminently –firstly- use electricity generated from soft supplies (not nuclear or oil electricity generated power supplies), then when there is a potential/real defiency in the soft supply sources, there aretops-up energy contributions by national more traditional centred energy firms -sourcing with hard energies.

The delivery of electricity needs match an in-ward process- orientation from the peripherial drives –mission unit organizations eg households, firms..- supplying its own electrical energy, and afterward if households/firms lack of electricity, there is anexternal assistance call made for more traditional sources, this time, I suppose, in charge of the German Federal State companies to deliver from and above the insufficiences

Description of the project in non-technical terms3°-The Programme Network and Energy Managing director at EDF added :  « … in France electricity network architecture are heading only one way, as well as power supply framed

– I suppose EDF monopolistic (?) electricity state company, with all the good willing to advocate for decentralization cannot deliver on the promise of set a perfect network of self autonomous ways to produce electricity at decentralized scale levels – your own facility to produce your own electricity, with your own sources to my knowledge are still inexisting or not developped, today.

One reason is what the Progamme Network and Energy Managing director had suggested in the text eg. the bottlenecksof past energy infrastructure options, which would render uneasy decentralized electricity production units –thereforekeeping a more functional way to produce electricity in France (maybe not the case in Germany)

The other reason is about expenditures raising from diversification of sources -from the mission units. Theret would be a Cost to pay for the policy energy diversification. The energy fragmentations with no correlation with people needs. And again, the french Electricity society may end-up with the need to another kind of concentration or centralization.

My conclusion is,

« I think, France is a small country in size, with a small population with an influence based on the use of technological prowesses to produce electricity generated from traditional forms of energy – the dominant way is Nuclear energy, which shaped the network infrastructure and development options, reversely for germany withanother production option, which may be difficult to reverse because of the small size of the population, also. A centralized way to generate electricity matters for France –as a decentralized way for Germany. Now what direction for the futureof electrical networks, when addressing large scale organizations with significant population sizes.

In fact, as the Programme Network and Energy Managing Director at EDF is questionning, in « Le Monde »: …  «Can we introduce a large Scale decentralized production? » …

Description of the project in non-technical termsMy project contribution tends to answer positively to the question of large scale organizations and I am taking to illustrate my debate on qualified flood organizations that have a long history of fighting floods.

I have already described in the project paper (ref.: Wateter needs in towns and fields in disasater zones) the case of America, with FEMA-the US Fedal Emergency Management Assistance and the State of California flood organization.There is an obvious relationship between weather and hydrology services linked to the nature of the commerceof weather and hydrology. NOAA –National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration- is in charge of this service and NOAA is a branch of the US Federal Dept of trade. I felt, coming from the media attention –Katarina or Mexico gulf hurricane predictions-, emergency trends tend to bea rather centralized oriented way to solve flood issues under control of FEMA.

The role model of the service and the Emergency infrastructures, options are probably attached to the particular characteristic of the population nature and the size, which FEMA is serving.

Now, comparing to Holland or Bangladesh, which have different flood strategies, I would qualified more adaptative and decentralized. They helped me in a way to illustrate my flood model partly for the emergency rescue builders witha participation approach focus on decentralized forecast production units, using firstly basic local resources beforeapplying to external assistance -as I felt more predictions need more acccess to data, in turn there is a need for moretraditional investment in hard material in order to capture these software needs (for the forecast simulation)

Instead - like Germany for electricity supply network (and also Bangladesh and/or Holland applying adaptation usingBasic networking, I have fancied much more a model of flood fighting based on decentralized unit of forecast productions –first.

I found these models more appropriate to international agenda and perhaps may avoid future bottlenecks in network Infrastructure –my viewpoint taking into account the experience of electricity supply network and energy source Diversification described in the text:  « Environment Research, Le Monde special science, Nov-Dec 2009.

c)Floodplan –including drinking water supply- and Health plan

In principle, factors that favour diseases –germs- development are the hazards –physical, chemical and biological and their drivers:

For instance, factors that can fuse germ multiplications are:

-Water temperature,-Water pH and water contaminants-Germ types and behaviors (carriers and pests)-People hygiene and vaccines-People –including staffs- motivation and training-Architecture, design and urbanism of the environment-Health system performance (collectivity, private or hybrid)-Water physical appearance (cleanliness, turbidity, presence of soil)-Water flow speeds (speed up or slow down flows)-Water treatment and waste water treatment-Research & development on cross contaminations during floods-Price of medicaments and affordability during disasters-The hygiene laws, principles and guidelines and pervasions.......

-

A full projectPictureis aboutcorrectingall theseSource of risks

Project Sub-goals (i)

ULTIMATE (I):–Answer to a need: water treatment during a flood–Fresh water supply–More than one alternative to water trucking (in the WAER Project)

•+the Pocket Water Purifier [analogous to a pocket water waste treatment]

•+the shopping on-line and the retail infrastructures•+the flood detector network for short lead-times•+the look-out point network targets sensible flood places•+the assembly bases with the warehouses: analogous to a

market place- exchange zone.•+the 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier drops from aircrafts•+the ultimate automation business engineered system: inputs,

processes and outputs•+the water corne handy desalination unit (from the NGO Care)

Project Sub-goals (ii)

Utimate Goals (II):

The spate would be analogous to the US engineer Corps works. (Same spirit for civilian engineering organizations)

Strengthen the house an also, disease (Malaria) reduction

–« Spate engineering » helps to make water re-circulates (or prevents to go inside the house)

•+Scaffolding the house: modular scaffolds

•+Water pumping: mechanical pumps

•+Safety boats: pneumatic boats

•+Aqueduc leveling: bricks and mortar

•+Isolate the house: use of buoys filled with the flood water

•+Use of barges: dry feet points, sanitation space, emergency evacuation

•+Water canals: to channel flood flows or use for barges

•+Elevation points: preparadness and shelter

•+Raising houses: dry feet during the flood

•+Filtration fences: stop for the unwanted materials: trees, cars….

•+Elevation walls: defence

•+Digging pools: adaptation

•+Water Piping: drain, pollution control and dryer for disease reductions

•+Platforms and asembly bases: water purifier service either on land or at sea (or in the pond)

III-PROJECT PLANNING

a)Lab 1: Flood type influences [rather risk orientate](Severity, Influences on the people expectations, options and planning)

Flashfloods

Flashfloods

In few hourswith great Impact on the waterelevations

In few hourswith great Impact on the waterelevations

Riverfloods

Riverfloods

WaterFlowingout of the river banks

WaterFlowingout of the river banks

MonsoonMonsoon

Create greatDamages incase of flat/ coastal countries

Create greatDamages incase of flat/ coastal countries

MeltingsnowMelting

snow

Surprisinglyspecially withclimate changes

Surprisinglyspecially withclimate changes

Soilperviousness

Soilperviousness

Influenceof citiesandurbanism

Influenceof citiesandurbanism

TidalSea water

TidalSea water

Huge impactson the coastallines with possibilityto penetrate far inner lands

Huge impactson the coastallines with possibilityto penetrate far inner lands

Naturaldisasters

Naturaldisasters

Giant waves With a mega flood. Also, landslidesand hurricanes

Giant waves With a mega flood. Also, landslidesand hurricanes

Man madedisastersMan madedisasters

Landslideswars anddam ruptures

Landslideswars anddam ruptures

TsupolesWater droning….

Defences:WallsAbstracts….

Raising the house

The salvationcomes fromthe abilityto be above Flood water

GoingagainstWater,Which is a fluid

Mitigations:enforcementQuality,Planning…

Technicalpreventivemeasures toavoid the damages

Adaptations:Strategy,Waterscape,Digging…

Organizingthe spaceto live roomsfor water expansion

Politics, policiesand police

Land planning,Environmentalcontrols,Tree plantingevacuation orders…

SheltersRefugeesAppealsCompensationsInsurances….

Humanactivitiesto help

b)Lab 2: Flood type influences [rather spatial orientate]

Flood from the sea

The Sea

InlandfloodfromsurgeRain

waters

RiverFlood

Country Y

Country X

A river Waterelevationoutsidethe riverbedflash flood

Rain

Country Z

c)Lab 3: Flood Plan (Timing)(Ref.: project flowchart slides)

Base

Prototypepreparadness

Long-termPlanning(Policy, access to base)

FlexiblePlanning(strategy Deployment)

Instantplanning(operation)

-AdaptationStrategy-Long-termmitigation-

Water SupplyDuringflood

Within a year

(1day)3 daysWeek

15 days1 month3 months

Key symbols

Capacity building

Preparadness

Prototyping

operation

Flood detector

Look-out point

RFID

1 to 3years

MediumRangeplan

S3

S2

S1Long-term preparedness

Medium term preparedness

Emergency

Ref.: from the flowchart

Preparedness cycles

S1:Preparadness Long-term

S2:Preparedness Medium term

S3: Emergency

Capacity building

Need analysisAnd engineering

Sampling

Activation

Production

Tests

MANDATE

Forecast

25 days-to 4 months

60’

72 hours

Tasks and timing of the mission works

Engineering works adapted to the sufferer needs-types of contractual agreements with the customers

1-All engineering works-all around the year2-Weekly works-emergency rescue3-Holidays works-individual household or small communities with possibility of discounted prices4-Dream works to cater customer needs-all phases of the project Lists of tasks:

T1: MIS implementationT2: Warning Alarm/alert communicationT3: Process for membershipT4: Flood surveillanceT5: Flood reporting and communicationT6: translationT7: Business and tradeT8: Preparedness for the emergencyT9: Call centre, Webdesk and Telephone alertT10: kid preparedness

e)Lab 5: Mission plans

Mon TueWen

Thu Fri Sat Sun

W1 1 day

W2

W3

W4

W5

3 days 5 days

7 days

15 days

IV-SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

a)Sustainable Development (SD)

SD

Brundtland MDGs IWRMCopenhagenKyoto, Rio,

JohannesburgAgenda 21 Decisions

b)Lab 1: Brundtland Commission and Millenium Development Goals

Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland (formerly WHO Chairwoman)+Deterioration of human habitat+Our common futur+Long-term perpective for development (>2000)+UN Resolution: A/RES/38/161 +(UN GA 1983, prepares the commission)

Brundtland Report: full version, it is about sustainable developmentand the policy change engagement for achievement, a Centre for the World balance) --Report accepted in A/Res/42/187--.

MDGs: 1, 7, 8

[Ref.: Wikipedia]

c)Lab 2: UN-Water and the concept of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM)

a spur

a mountain crest

a river course+

++

++

+ a sea

a delta

a villagehouse

a reef(or an artificial island)

a lake

IWRM

a road

Scenario case: 1 river basin=1 IWRM(Influence zone on the life of the community around theRiver. Comprehensive changes occurs in a package of solutions that harmonize/integrate the whole river basin activities.

d)The same concept applies in flood management( Integrated Flood Management --IFM)

Sea rises

Spurs

+

+

++

+

Water penetrations into the land

Mountains

Village(Houses)

IFM

IWRM IFM

Flood

e)Sustainable development - taking decisions-

Cultural valuesCultural values

Freediscussion

Freediscussion

Clear decisonClear decison

Full support

Full support

Newchoice

ContractualAgreement

(laws)

ContractualAgreement

(laws)

Conflictzone

Conflictzone

Individual(Market)Individual(Market)

DEPENDANCE

INDEPEDANCE

More or less….Source: High Output Management

Agenda 21

V-ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

a)Lab 1: Living with floods (Waterscape orientations)

Putting people over flood waters at all times

Leaving waterto its naturalexpansion

river

Rooms for expansion

PoolsCanalsParks

Tunnels

Artificial riversDrainsRefill aquifers

-Islands-Boats-Shelter-Dry feets-Elevationhouses…

New architecturesTowerCathedralWater castleLight housesScaffoldersPlatformsSky scrapers….

debordement

Water is a fluid, when it is blocked, water comes somewhere where it is unexpected..

Creating Dry feetconditions

PART B

I-THE FLOOD SCIENCE TO BACK-UP THE DETECTORS (sensors)

a)Lab 1: The flood concept (Source: WMO flood programme)

The rainRun-offs

Pollutions

FloodsSediments

The land

The riverThe Sea

[Source adaptation: WMO Flood program]

FLOOD IS GOOD FLOOD AND/OR BAD

b)Lab 2- Measuring run-offs and forecasting: -the hydrograph-

Discharge curve

Flow (cfs: cubic feet second)2,400

0Time (Days)

Peak of the discharge(for a strench of a river)

6

Type II 24-hrRainfall=5.20’’Runoff Area=768.000 acRunoff Volume=167.195 afRunoff Depth > 2.61’’Tc=20.0minCN=75

[Source adaptation: EROSION CONTROLUS WATER SURVEY]

A sample of simulation for IFMA1 (Pond 3) -See slide in project WBS for explanation-

Pond 2

Pond 1

Pond 3

AnalogySystem:pond collectors

c)Lab 3-The soil water infiltration capacity(« The flood laws »)

Transmission zones

Wetling front soil with Antecedent water context

Saturated zones

Water supply to soil surfaces

Theoritical zonation

fo

tofc

tcInfiltration Capacity

Maximum of water

Time

Decline of infiltration capacityDuring rainfall events

(Sources: Joseph Holden-(J.H.)John Anthony Allan (J.A.A.), ILEA,SIWI)

Impervious surfaces due to:-urbanism,-no adaptation-unfunctional waste treatment-no trees…..

Soil structure:Cracks in the soilSoil moisturesSoil textureSoil compaction….

100km

(J.H.)

(J.A.A.)(ILEA)

(SIWI)

d)Lab 4: The project reporting reference: -World Water Week 2009-

Natural water features(Naturally contaminated)

100km

Look-out pointBest placeswere a watch personcan contemplate a floodDirectly –no technology-or with the floodindicator.

Boundary land/water feature

[More flood Indicators (sensors) in the 100 km Where the likelyhood of flood is important(Balancing act between benefits, costs for risks)]

100 kmboundary

A water feature(river, lake,...,sea)

The pollution risk area on land

Sensors on the ground help to map theseAdvance of the flood front and assess location and speeds (See slide on flood detector map forthe redeploiement strategy of flood stations

Source: World Water Week 2009

Uncertainty distance for hazards due to water flows either at subsurfaces or underground infiltrations

Sensors

Hazard Early Warning System

Source

Issue

Detection

e)Lab 5-Flood crisis monitor - 100km risk zone -

100km

Run-off curve(normal)

crisis

Return to base line(Statistics)

Aquifer

Flood

PreventionMitigationAdaptationEngineeringWorks,maintenance

(Time)

Distances

Drone flightdistances

June NovJan

0 km

SeaOther networks

Hh

Dischargelines

Flood Predicitions from forecasts

(International Organizations, Weather forecasts)

WAER Flood predictions(Or WAER confirmed floodsThrough its own network)

Long lead-times

Short lead-times

Recommendation 1

WAERStand-by

WAERActivation

Risk run-off curve(deviation)

WMO, IHO, IMOOther networks

Legend

-WMO: WorldMeteorologicalOrganization-IHO: International Hydrology Organization-IMO International Maritime Organization-Hh : house location

100km line helps to find likelyhood flood locations installation of the look-out points

Validation ModelIn density population areas Drone activity + Business Model

[Ref: SIWI, adaptation ofWorld Water Week 2009Reporting-see the annex-]

Dec

Land

f)Ref.: Numbers of validations models behind the science from World Water Week

2009+The 100 km zonation from a water feature is significant for preventing pollution damages -Ref.: Swedish Enforcement Dept,

+The 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier deals with a high number of populations -Ref.:World Meteorological Organization, Flood Division, Technical Unit, in the authorization processto place my main project business component in the Integrated Flood ResourceManagement Helpdesk.

+The blue line is a monitor curve—a sample of flood water elevation with the period of the year—it is an expectation from forecasts, a contemplation of river feature water run-offs, synonymous of river discharges at certain points in time in the wonder world free of flood disasters.What should be if mitigations were perfect to avoid negative impacts occuring during a flood (deviation curve): loss of lives, destructions of properties and the livelihood, various casualties and injuries, deathtoll increases and disease spreads up to certain deaths…

+ The flood seasons: assumptions are based on the hurricane starts in June in the USA and ends in Nov-Dec --Ref.: World Bank i.e. worst Hurricane in Haiti ever was end of November 2008– and, the drougth period in Phillipines is between January and May of the year —Ref.: WMO and the dam discharges in the Phillipines.

h)Lab 7: Environmental significance of the 100 km boundary zone of water features

100 km boundary zones of water features are likely to be impacted more severely by pollutions.

Aquifer/sub-surface waters can travel far away enough from their original sources with good soil facilitation Factors: infiltration capacity, structures, perviousness and soil surfaces.

Floodwaters infiltrated into the land combines their pollutions with the ones carried by natural water courses during normal conditions. Loads of pollutants are: the soil unwanted materials, germs, others…

Flood events are the most common disaster (with thehighest predictability), still predictions are unreliable. For instance, if there is a strong rain, an earthquake, the municipality water supply disruption,…most places – except in places with serious flood indicators -- have no reliable flood plan and cannot control them. The pollution context in 100 km risk zone, add ambiguityto the cultural aspect of flood. For such reasons, the importance of good quality predictions has a higher significance in the 100 km .

Physical Chemical Biologocal

Typesof

Pollutions

GS RADJOU

i)Lab 8: important remark on the 100 km(flood is good, flood is bad)

Normally, the flood prone regions and floods are very relevant to the developmentof most country economies (GDP).

In principle, the soil natural sedimention process due to flood run-off waters contain the natural ingredients for the soil fertilization. It is a crucial/trivial cultural agreement/ingredient for flood sediment inputs for small or large farms (Ref.: FAO, UNDP, WMO…).

With the increase pressure of development drivers, pollutions with floods are complex and impacting traditional mode of productions. In the project, the flood water will never be as good as willing so, thus supply of fresh water sources are very likely to be contaminated by the fertilizers –and also, artificial pollutants-

The rational assumption is water supply unfit for the human consumption during a flood. And, if there is no evidence based policies that secondary sources are well mitigated, all waters in the flood prone region are perillous to drink.

The project business case is an alternative way to supply drinking water in emergency conditions. Thus, making the 100 km zonation irrelevant for drinking water.

II-PROJECT STRATEGY

a)Project strategy

THE IDEA IS A LEVERAGE SYSTEM THAT SPEEDS UP AND INTRODUCE SOME SHORT-CUTS INTO THE SUPPLY OF FRESH WATER DURING EXTREM WEATHER/HYDROLOGY CONDITIONS LIKE A HURRICANE, FLOODS…

Starting point of the strategy+ Rare are the cases when you can move people outside their cities during a flood predicted time. (because lead-times are always uncertain –nearly, and emergency evacuations when started are never 100% successfull at completion).+ The municipality water supply is disrupted and water trucking cannot go to deliver fresh water to citizen at risk of flood.+Harvesting water from wells or other water alternatives are impossible.+ We have to realize than nobody can stay without drinking over 3 days. People would not stand alone and refrain drinking dirty water.

Vision: World free of water poisoning during a flood.

Statements: reduction of death tolls and maalria reduction in the aftermath of the flood. Development based on mission organizations.

Missions:+More than one alternative to water trucking and emergency+Building green and the sustainable environment+facilitate the water flow through adaptative strategies+Use of modular scaffold to improve infrastructures

LOCAL BASE SIDE(DRONE)

FLOOD SIDE (IFM)

Retailing structureRetailing structure

Energy Power SupplyEnergy Power Supply

HouseholdsHouseholds

WAER

WATER AERO EMERGENCY RELIEF (WAER)

COUNTRY ASSISTANCE MODEL

Local

(Or Parcel deliveryOn-line Shopping)

2 ozPocket water purifier

b)Partnering for retail infrastructures & trade

Traditionalpurchase, supplyand delivery system

Capacity building(IF 1, NO 2)

Capacity building(IF 1, NO 2)

Order

Supply

Flooddetector

Assemblybase

Datacollection

MIS

MIS

Delivery

GS RADJOU

1

2RELIABILITYPRINCIPLE

LOCAL MANAGEMENTINFORMATION SYSTEM

HOUSEHOLDS

MISMISMISMIS

W.A.E.R.

MISMIS

BASE SIDE HOUSEHOLD SIDE

c)Plant partnering for flood information system

MIS:-Internet access-Computer-Mobile phone-Flood detector-RFID…

Existence of a MIScommunity

Capacity buildingCapacity building

Boundary

WAERACTIVATION

WAERACTIVATION

MISMIS

MISMIS

RETAILINGON-LINE SHOPPING

RETAILINGON-LINE SHOPPING

ENERGYPOWERSUPPLY

ENERGYPOWERSUPPLY

FLOOD SEASON

Households

d)Country activity break-down structures flood

Capacity buildingCapacity building

Flood Management Information System (FMIS)

MISMIS

boundary

Assistance cell Country cell

WAER INSTAND-BYWAER IN

STAND-BY

QUIET SITUATIONHOUSEHOLDS ARE NOT AT RISK OR THEFORECAST HAS NOTBEEN YET CONFIRMED

WATER TRUCKING

COMPARING NPV > 0 OF BOTH SYSTEMSCOMPARING NPV > 0 OF BOTH SYSTEMS

CHOICE ?

e)More than one alternative to supply fresh water

Drone

In principle, water trucking is disabled during a flood disaste and WAER is enabling the fresh water

In principle, water trucking is disabled during a flood disaste and WAER is enabling the fresh water

Capacity buildingCapacity building

AirIFMzones

waterDrone

Assembly base

Flooddetector

Parcel delivery

On-line shoping

Trade

Domestic

Spate

Treeplanting

Pipes(Soft, hard)

reservoir

ScaffoldsWater pumps

Houseelevation

Stone

AqueducLook-out

points

Forecast no detector

Walls

GPS

CameraPhone

RFID

Internet

Telecom.Depart.

Geography

Retailing

WAER MULTINATIONAL: MULTI PRODUCT/SERVICE BUSINESS BLOBAL CORPORATE, BUT NOT A CONGLOMERATE --ONLY ONE BUSINESS WATER SUPLLY DURING A FLOOD--

f) Firm organization Executive Board

Finance

Non executive board

International

ProjectTechnology

Orthodox

NonOrthodox

Disasterand hazards

Insurance Assessment

CSR HubTechnical

BargesCanals

Projectcomponents

III-PROJECT OPERATION

a)The basic of production

OperationalDrone ready

ManufacturingflowsManufacturingflows

SellingprocessSellingprocess

Inputs

ProgressProgress Drone assemble with water purifiersDrone assemble with water purifiers

PreprednessPrepredness

FloodFlood?

Alert confirmed

Pre-alert

Assembly Warehouse

DroneDrone Water purifierWater purifier

PreparednessPreparedness

Prediction(6-7 days) Prediction(6-7 days)

(60’ responsivenessIn day 0 of

the preparedness)

Assembly authorizedAssembly authorizedordersellingsellingprospectprospect

Drone Flights

2 oz pocket water purifier/ good quality drops

Flood identified zone

HouseholdsDrinking water

Water trucking disabled

Forecast (deliverable: weather bulletin)Forecast (deliverable: weather bulletin)

Production on forecast demandsProduction on forecast demands Control/Monitor zoneControl/Monitor zone

Deliverable(happy people)

A project starts with a deliverable and finisheswith a deliverable. Manufacturing flow is the project operation

Output

InputsMaterialsLaborsData

FloodMIS

Base

Look-outPoints(IFM) ‘flood

b)The Project Life Cycle(Preparedness and Emergency)

Projectstarts

Project ends

Meeting

Investmentdecision

Gas phase

R & D of the business system

+Flood forecasts+Flood mitigations+Scaffoldresistance+Lead-times+alternatives+project benchmarks+project funding+project equity

Decisions

Growth

Time

Birth date

developmentphase

Maturityphase

Deathphase

decayingphase

ascentphase

launchphase

NPV>0, project viability

Planning the project

Execution

Directingthe project

c)Project Product PLC 2 oz PocketWater Purifier

Modularscaffolds

ULM BalloonHelicopter

Drone

Delta wing

Assembly Launcher

Supports

Car ScooterBikeTruck Van RailsAircraftcarrier

Air dropproducts

Sea dropproducts

Canoe

Boat

Raft

Speedboat

Waterbike

Waterscooter

Localstores

On-lineshopping

Householdpurchase

Fresh water During a flood

Beforeflooding

Duringflooding

24 412 6 4Tracks n°

HydrocraftHoovercraftWater scooterWater cycle

d)Sustainable development (CSR&Change Management)

Initialstage

Indirect

Direct

old

Combining system(reliance on both for a while)

new

Transitoryperiod

Finalchoice

Business Engineering Systemthat could match environment and regulation for changes

constraints

Time

Help toUnderstandThe choice Of the technologyLinked withThe sustainability developmentEconomy, society and the environment

Firmchoices

T-2 T-1 T-0

c’’

c<c’<c’’

c’

c

e)The building a flood process

DataCentres

DataCentres

UNDPUNDP

FloodzonesFloodzones

SustainableWorld

SustainableWorld

NationalGovernments

NationalGovernments

SpatesSpates

UNUN

UN-Habitat

UN-Habitat

Centre for the World Balance: focus on flood zones

ABSABS

SECTION II

PART A:

A1-MANDATE

a)Ref case: Haiti, Nov 2008 –Worst flood in a century ever- Worldbank grants/IDA financing the recovery

b)WAER Project Mandate (1) (PROJECT BASE LINE BUDGET FOR THE FIRST YEAR IN OPERATION)

0

1

2

3

4

5

1stQtr

2ndQtr

3rdQtr

4thQtr

InvestmentReserve

Project estimate for the first year is a projected amount based on the number of water related disaters. This is the base-line budget for the initial investment during the 1rst year for the 10.000 « base-vies » also called segements, bases or platforms and look-out points. These contain the following components: drones, 2 oz water purifiers and the daily overheads and costs for running the project (items).Cost of 2 oz water purifier: $10Cost of a drone: $30

Revenues in multiple of 250 million

(Source: Sample estimate based on multinational earnings. For instance, Walmart 2 first quaters net profit in 2009Equalled $1.5 billion

c)WAER Project Mandate (2)

-Millenium Development Goals (MDGs)-Based science-Sustainable development-Environmental change-Energy conservation-Bio-diversity-Job creations-Innovation-Crisis integration: finance and disaster-Park development: flood zone, planting trees and clean water-Geneva zones: flood zone improvement for protection of women and kids-Partnerships-Task force: EAP (Eastern Europe, Caucasus and central Asia (Note in EUWI EU Water Initiative)-Tax, trade and transfer.….

A2-PROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENT

I-PROJECT DEFINITION

a)People needs (1)

Psychology

Security/safety

Society

Self-Esteem

ActualizationOld theoriesbased on fearsfrom bottom-upto top downfxplains peopleneeds and driversof our behavioralmotivations

Modern theories explainthere is no only one unique way into the need Pyramid.It is illustrated with lots examples in life: money, water…

b)People needs (2)+It is an engineering need: it is about the component one would need to ensure the project success. It is going beyond the 2 oz pocket water purifier only (single project).

+In order to drink water. Users may need the water purifier--of course– but firstly, before drinking the water, one should ensure, the household is not drowning, for instance the flood sufferer has a senior house. It does not crumble with the flood flow.

+The 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier is directing the project (cut people thirst within 72 hours of the flood arrival time and refraining people to drink dirty water within this period of time). +Also, how do you market the need….It is the Portofolio project management that would answer this question in the WAER project. So, there are lots of business components –products and services- to satisfy fresh water supply needs.

My favorite solutions are on next slide and they are composing the ultimate goal of the WAER project

Water needs in town and field during a flood. Engineering needs required :

A-single project: drop of pocket water purifiers to cut people thirst in a safe way.

B-Portofolio project: it may not be enough to ensure that people do get access to fresh water, WAER needs to contribute more than just drops to help: ensure people are safe ideally look after maturity of their houses (senior houses) and the presence of an MIS for communication purpose. Pocket water purifier drops still required during the emergency.

c)The business case

d)The project goals

Ensure: self-sufficience reliance and independancewhen facing flood adversities based on the sustainable strategies.

Also, achievement of the MDG and the buildingof a new urbanism (the adaptation strategies and the mitigations) cooping with flood in the 21rstcentury.

e)The projects of various organizations

Deliverables

Forecast Networks

IFR

HelpDesk

Bases

Look-out points

Demand forAssistance

Providers of Flood products and Services

The FloodPlatform

WAERPROJECT

FLOODDIVISION

WMO Weather/Hydrology

FORECASTS(Bulletins,…)

Assumption: easy distinction, but not so strict, as all of them needs each others: evidence based: global changes; environment, finance,…

NOAA is a branchOf the US Dept of commerce

WMO: provider of weather/hydrology services to individuals/ businesses

Project components:

II-PROJECT PRODUCT MANAGEMENT

c)Deliverables

Weather/Hydrologydeliverables

Weather/Hydrologydeliverables

Bulletins

Outlooks

Warnings

Forecasts

Country ExecutiveOrganization deliverables

Country ExecutiveOrganization deliverables

Country presidentspeech

Federal states executive orders

Emergency Evacuation orders

UN/UN relatedOrganisations resolutions

UN/UN relatedOrganisations resolutions

Peace keepingforcesMINUTASH

Appeals

Various deliverablesduring a water hazardVarious deliverablesduring a water hazard

(Source: internet)

ConstructionConstruction

UtilityPermit

People participation(prospectives, contacts,

partnerships)

People participation(prospectives, contacts,

partnerships)

UNUN FirmsFirmsFondationFondationOthersOthers

WMOFlood

division

WMOFlood

division

UNDPUNDPWorld BankWorld Bank

US Federal Governments

US Federal Governments

IBMWater

IBMWater

RockyfellerEducationRockyfellerEducation

FEMAFEMAGeologySurveyGeologySurvey

SIWISIWI

IIMMBA

CNAM

IIMMBA

CNAM

PoleEmploiCadres

PoleEmploiCadres

Including: 2 oz Pocket Water purifier and Technology Pole against tsunamis

WHOWHO

d)Mailing list from my own network

ITDGITDGU.K.Taxes

U.K.Taxes

AbbeybankAbbeybank

FriendsFriends

Starting from (The tsunami* in South East Asia– December 26th, 2004)

Like a flood, a tsunami is a giant wave witha mega flood. I have already described, in various papers, a technology against tsunamies(Ref.: SIWI 2007-08 and CNAM University and the following contacts)

PART B

I-PRODUCT BASE PLANNING

a)Product Base Planning

ProductBase

Planning

ProductBreakdownStructures

WorkBreakdownStructures

FlowDiagram

b)Lab 1: Project Product for Break Down Structures (P.B.S.)

DronesDrones

2 oz PocketWater Purifier

2 oz PocketWater Purifier

Flood detectors

Flood detectors

Assembly bases

Assembly bases

M.I.S. M.I.S.

P.B.S. (Main components)

P.B.S. (Main components)

Look-out points

Look-out points

Retails andOn-line shopping

Retails andOn-line shopping

ElectroMechanical

ElectroMechanical

NuclearNuclear GaugingGauging SpeedSpeedSelfSelf FalseFalseDryfeetDryfeet

c)Lab 2: PBS definitions

d)Project P.B.S. types

PBS

Single Intermediate

Integration Grouping2 oz Pocket

water purifierTyphoon season

Planting treesWater aerator

machine

Water droningSupply chain

Flood detectionnetwork

Households’ Flood Information System

Strategy access to bases

Detectionbuoys

Flood detectors

Flood data stations

Drone launchers

Mobile phonecamera

Internet(landline, wi-fi)

Retail infrastructure/trade capacity

CivilianFlood platforms

e)Single project

It is called single project because the project it-self cannot be breakdown further

The business system engineering of the project is about supplying fresh water during a flood:

+either directly through the use of the 2 oz pocket water purifier,

+or indirectly, in addition flying objects (drones, helicopters, balloons, Ultra light motorized, wings…) will support the delivery. --Also, speed boats in the case accessing to flood zone is through river corridors-- of the 2 oz Pocket Water Purifiers to users.

Still, the main product remains 2 oz pocket water purifier, which can be found at the local store, on-line shopping before the flood predicted arrival time, or with the drone Delivered during emergnecy situations (flash floods, hurricanes, unpredictable floods….

A sample of practice for the flood preparadness if the house can crumble under the flood: water reserve and food for 3 days, a secure safety boat for the emergency evacuation,safety blankets to keep warm, safety belt, plastic sheet to protect the boat against the rain water inflitration, a pot to clear the excess water from the boat, a rope to tighten the Boat to a fix point…--non exhaustive list--

f)Integration

g)Grouping

II-PBS & GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE2-OZ POCKET WATER PURIFIER

a)Lab 1: PBS- 2oz Pocket Water Purifier-

H2OH2O

BacteriaA

BacteriaA

BacteriaD

BacteriaD

BacteriaB

BacteriaB

BacteriaC

BacteriaC

(Global Architecture and Specification)

Plastic case

Active part

Hazardous water side

User’s mouth side

ManufacturerClaims

Claim 1Claim 2Claim 3Claim 4

Digesting process

Water waste treatment principle

Water hazardseats

Legend:Bacteria eats

eats eats eats

Hazards

Bacteria D- eats Bacteria C -eats Bacteria B -eats Bacteria A- eats hazards

BacteriaLevels

Level A Level B Level C Level D

Single Project

b)Performance: 2oz Pocket Water Purifier(Interface specification)

Flood water

2oz Pocket water purifierSufferercan’t refrainto drinkdirty waterDuring 72 hours

This time the water purifier saved his lifeThe water purifier helped him to re-discover the loss water quality.

The 2oz pocket water purifierPlaced on the water cycle, as it is cleaningThe water, it is a real pocket waste treatment during the flood

Clouds

c)Drinking water supply-Water Safety Health Plan(Global architecture)

(Source: WHO internet)Water

ResourceAnd sources

Treatment

DrinkingSystem

Consumersystem

Structureassessment

MonitoringManagement

communication

All these components are in WAER project

2 oz Pocket Water Purifier

Watersources

Drinkingsystem

treatment

Consumersystem

III-PBS: THE DRONES

Drone base definitionAn effective drone base equals:Compulsory items (flood data measures are outsourced)

-Item 1: a drone launch pad : a small size real estate, vehicule or vessel equippedwith a drone launcher,

-Item 2: a warehouse to shelter/keep water purifiers and basic recoding tools andThe drone operator dash board and computer and radio transmittor,

-Item 3: the flood station to send flood signals captured by the flood detectors, Transmitted by long distance RFID in order to activate the drone launches

Additional-Item 4: the flood detector (flood data measures are insourced)Note 1: Flood detectors can be replaced by the look out points. These are special elevation features, artificials or natural equipped with RFID. Flood Detection means or an observator –flood watch person– could anticipate without technology the likelihood of a flood (forecast without technology)

Note 2: A base (grounded) can be replaced with a mobile vector (indirect for the water purifier: a truck, a car, a train, a boat for the droneLaunchers or indirect incase water purifiers are dropped from an helicopters or transported by shuttle or speed boats to households)

PBS for a drone(Easy one!)

(TerrainIdentification

EquipmentIn-board drone)

(Drone InboardGlobal positioning

System)

An OpticalFlux system

RealDrone

(it owns inboard navigational devices)

FalseDrone

(non autonomous)

Drone*(flying robot)

Drone*(flying robot)

*Also known as unmanned aircraft

(Ground floorRadio Control Equipment)

(Help ofoperatorsto assist

the flight)

IV-PBS & GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE: RIFD

(Easy one!)

a) A definition & history of the RFID

1-Definition

-RFID: Radio Frequency Identification. Also, synonymous of tagging.-Nano technologies (using radio wave frequencies)-For the:

->emission, ->transmittion and, ->detection of signals

The code bar is the simplest one -for identifying objects/carriers with RFID- (tagging) 2-History:

Code bar: use to track a mobile living being by emissions of radio waves (ref.: internet)Other places of randomization of code bar: items (fruit juices, cloths…) in stores are marked (identified) with RFID tags

3-Samples of RFID products

-Code bar –passive tagging--Ingecom RFID -Model IP 65 aquaproof

b) The tagging Principle

The carrier of the tag can be identify by:+the receiver (tag controller) during a transmission process. It is either passive if the bearer pass is just reflecting the tag controller identification signal. The bearer tag can be self power with its own identifcation (active tagging) and energy supply.

+mission box, active part have the same electronic performance and characteritics when supplying the radio waves.

c)Lab 1: the code bar PBS

d)Lab 2: the code bar- global architecture-

•Interface specifications•Tagging people or object: purpose: tracking device using

•Performance specifications•nano technologies; 2.45 GHz•Technology 0.18 micrometer CMOS with no energy •consumption nearly.• It helps the miniaturization and low power performance.•Cell life duration: 4 years

e) Lab 3: Ingecom product (product scope)INGECOM product, Controlleur Tag Actif 2.45 GHZ

trading firm: Nomadic solutions, 1015 rue du Marechal Juin –ZI Vaux le Penil, 77000 Melun

1-PBS

2 parts of the tag controller:

A fiix-active part e.g a transponder box emitting the radio wave recognition signal, and A mobile part is called the interrogator- e.g. a credit card or badge shape responding to the active part signal emission (identification) within the RFID electromagnetic environment

distance.

•2-Global architecture

•In fact, the transponder box is like a hotspot –analogous to the wi-fi pole for the internet waves –•It is radiating RFID waves in the surrounding environment. •Short distance RFID emissions are powered within a distance range of 30-50 meters.•Interrogator parts are not just reflecting the transponder –passive component- signal, but they •can produce their own identification signals –active interrogator-

f) Ingecom product -Detailed global architecture-

Performance specificationDim: 126x104x28 mm, alimentation: 5-12 V CD, 100mABandweight: (2.4GHZ-2.48GHZ, no licensing fees, international coverage)Temperature of utilization: between –10 and 55°C (In operation) and –40 and 70°C (storage temperature).

Interface specificationsHealth: limit to human exposure to electromagnetism field.Compatibility: WIFI, GSM, Bluetooh, DECT with no perturbationApplication: Tracking, medical use, animal tagging, detection networks, airports, hydroelectricity and nuslear power plants, supply chain, stock management, geo location, security.Current applications:chips, road tolls with no stops, park entrances…

g) Model IP65/aquaproof (product scope)RFID Model IP65/Aquaproof(active tagging):

1-PBS: Badge shape or credit card shape.

2-Performance specificationsDetection range: 30-50 metersCost: reduce and the size, also.

3-Interface specifications•Working environment•Works in highly constraint environment •(walls, metal, water,…, hostile waves).

[Ref: internet]

h)Long distance RFID

The use of screen antenae increases the power of transmission

i)Lab 2: RFID Global architecture Flood Management Information System

Long transmittance detector via RFID or cable or internet

The choices of linkage between a flood prone region and the households will depens on the type of Management Information System (MIS) and their connectivity with the environment.

Regulatory roles of national/government trade and telecom departments in facilitatingthe technology development to protect their citizens.

Anyway, I think such system efficiency would be based on:-wifi-telephone-access to bases-detector facilities-computer networks-television-RFID….

j)Household MIS/Flood Detection Network Service(Global architecture)

Mobile PhoneCamera

Mobile PhoneCamera

Flooddetector

Flooddetector

FloodbaseFloodbase

RFIDRFID

Socio-mediaevent

Socio-mediaevent

Waterquality

Waterquality

WaterspeedWaterspeed

Waterelevation

Waterelevation

TreamentTreament

InternetInternet

ComputerComputer

BroadbandBroadband

GPSGPS

VisualVisual datadata

Flood contextcapture

Flood contextcapture

FLOOD

FLOOD

Waterstation

Waterstation

DronebaseDronebase

HouseholdsHouseholds

Floodprocess

Floodprocess

World Meteorological Organization NetworkWeather and hydrology forecasts

RFIDhydrologyforecastNetworkservice

RFIDhydrologyforecastNetworkservice

Network powered with nanotechnologies, mobile phone cameras, internet, wi-fi and GPS for flood event captures/media

V-PBS: THE FLOOD DETECTOR

a)Lab 1: PBS - Flood Indicator Components-(Active parts)

Water flows

Rotating wheel

beam

A float

Waterascent

Float mobilizationUp-lift

Vertical rotating wheel configuration

b)PBS: Flood Indicator components (distal parts- (Cyclometer type)

Rotatingwheel

Detector mast (pole)

bottom

To top

beam

Side slopes

3.6m/s

mA

SpeedometerMode A

(Speed)Mode C

(Elevation)

Aluminiumpole

Cables

Also, wirelessConfiguration(RFID)

Floodheight

Sited in the house

environment

Cyclo computer

Internet

GPS

Mobile

Data centersx=vt

RFID

H (cm)

Mode B

(Time)

-Clock-Chrono

c)PBS: flood indicator components(Performance and interface specifications)

mastWheel

Stand

Solar Panel

Cell battery

RFID BoxFor signal transmittance

Floodcomputer

Power Cable

Data cable

Cell

-Speed-Elevation-time-location

WAER PLAN

Flood detectorConfigurationWith a solar panelA standAnd a vertical rotating wheel

Warning system

Flow

d)Lab 1: PBS - Flood Indicator, fixing ends and stands: various configurations-

Modular scaffolds

A rotating wheel -with palettes- movesup and down when the flood flow tides

Various configurationsfor the ground part of the

Detector mast

Mast (tube)

b) A stand shape for flat surfaces

a) Cone shape to (Pick the earth soil)

c) Nailingon a piece of wood

To a computerFor speed andWater elevationTransmittanceuses the RFID.

Wheel Palettes

Mast(or pole)

Configurationmanagement

Tide down

Tide up

e)New versions and configurationsfor the flood detectors

Emptytube

sectionwith

a ruler

bottom

To top

Float

Flood waterflows penetratinginside the tubethrough the window section lift a float.

The waterelevationin the tube canbe read manuallyor electronically

BallAscent

Increasing layersof water is an Indication of the floodarrival

Rulerstick

Ho

H2

Water ascent

Ground: initially without water

CalibratedStones with LightElectoluminescentDiods (LED) for flood night detections The disappearance

of the stone lightmeans that waterSubsurface reachedthe warning level

New configurations

New versions

H1

H2>H2>H1

New versions

f)Lab 3: New configuration of flood indicators

a water levelsubsurface

a float

a water feature bed°a fix

a variable lineWith the water elevation

a rising flag as an indicator shows the importance of the flood

safelow

highmedium

danger

Water tucking

Water droning

Flood

Tsunami

0

1

2

3

4

g)Flood Indicator

(New version)

Gamma source

Receptor

transmittance

Signaltransmission

Floodwater

h

Signal strength Linked to gammanumbers

New version

The dash linerepresents

the receptor support

Cable orRFID for long Transmitance Signals: N(t)

(Radio waves, RFID, internet, GPS..)

Geiger comptor principle: Detection of number impact N(t) = k (h) on the receptor is a variable of the flood water thicknesses (h)

To data centres for analysis,Forecasts andDecision making

PART C

C1- FLOOD STATION AND GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE

I-MISSION UNIT & NETWORK

b)Lab 2: Flood Indicator / global architecture(Interface specification)

FloodIndicator

House

RFID transmission30m-50m

Alimentation: Solar energy

FloodIn development

Sited inthe garden

Security zone (x)

PossibleSolution:WAER

Preparedness (needs) Emergency-Evacuation (needs)

x=v.tt=x/v

Solutionplanning

Hh

Hf

Hf-Hh= 30 to 50m

Datacaptures

c)Lab 3: House unit coordinates(Look-out points)

Dµ

H

O

d

H=dsinµD=dcosµTgµ=H/Dtgµ = sin µ/cosµ

[0<µ<90°]

House height

(Hh)

Hmax

D’

H’

H’Hmax = HHh = tgµ OD’ OD

_________

_____

Land

100kmFlood detector

h1

d)Lab 4: The flood detector and the slope influence

h2 h3H0=h0

HM

HmH

Risk areas

RM RmR

d0 d1 d2 d3

100% Safe

Conclusion: as long as the house isin the safety zones: no worry a bout floodwhatever the season. The house location is functionof the season: Hh > Hf and detector not too far fromThe house. 100km is relevant only if the soil is flat

HM: Maximum waterHm:Minimum waterH:Average water elevationHf:Flood elevationHh:House location

Di=hi, with i=1,2,3 houseLocation (hi) & detectorLocation (di) with 30-50Meters variation for the RFID

House100%secure

Boundary*100% safe

House at riskdependingon the floodwater elevationand the housemitigations:walls, piloti,fencing,…

Max. risk Min. riskAverage risk

d0:Flood calibration(Ref:point, GPS location)

water

Towerzone Piloti

house

New urbanism

Floatinghouse

100% safe

House mitigations

LowMediumHigh

*Except for flood prone regions

e)Lab 5: The extrem scenarios

Saint Michael Mount bay

Sea: water elevation at the speed of a horse (60 km/h)

Maximum risk house

Owner needsa perfect mitigationHimalayian mountains

Flood safe house

Water rises (8km/h) but the house is safebeing located on the mountain slope

No need of particularflood mitigations except building highIn the mountain

Out of reach house

The flood trajectory is not a strait line. The real –apparent- flood speed in direction and intensity combines various speed components to culminate to the horse race speed-60 km/h-

A sample of Speeds

walking10 km/hour

(average human walk)

Cycling20 km/hour

(flat road)

Tsunamy40km/hour (near the coast)

St Michael Mount60km/hour

(Horse race speed)

Escape road80km/hour

(From a hazard source)

Body or system Speed (average)

f)Lab 6: Flood Indicator locations(Global architecture)

Along a road(combines with lamp post

New version)

River bedCrossing aroad

(New version 2)

X=Water elevationµ:time to travel in the water

Laser or doppler

detection

Equation 22(d+x) = c[t+µ]

d: pole lengtht: time to travel in the air

Equation set 1D-d= XT=2 (t+µ)

c (or v): speed of light (or sound (doppler))T: measure between two signals

(d,t)

Signals1 2

TInterface specifications

In-houseFlood indicator

Outdoor flood detectors

(New version 1)Colorimetry

detection

(Computer reading in both cases)

Cable or RFID transmittance,Also sattelite detection with GPS

Flood

New versionsBased on light waves:1-the water colometry analysis(opto density: the waterthickness) is an indicator of the water depth-elevation- in some cases.2- Water elevationmeasures directly -telemetry-the water level

g)Lab 7: Risk drivers (a tool for assessment)(A sample of flood detection influences for

forecasts with very reduced lead-times and very fast response)

Discharge (flood elevation)

Terrainslopes

House location

Presence ofa detector

Time

Speed

Competitors:Increase lead-times

Use ofsoftware modelling

Competitors:Increase lead-times

Use ofsoftware modelling

1

Zone A: Importance of Discharge (6), detector Location (6) and time (ease to solve a floodissue)– easy zone

Slopes (2) and house location (2) are minorFlood speed likely to beMedium (3)

Discharge: water elevation, strengthLocation: proximity to the waterTime: influenced by the quality of the solution to flood ….

In this case it is risky:Flood risk and ruptureof water supply, vitalFor livelyhood and properties

flood detector location, senior house with piloti or mitigation. Preparedness foremergency evacuation/water supplyindividual food ration/safety boat

Causes

ProblemsImpacts

Zone:importanceof slopes only

House on a mountain (6.5). Itis not at risk-- if not the house is in a flood prone zone = likelihood of danger. For intance a house with a(1) indiceHouse highly perchedon the top of a valley slope

23

45

6

the driver indiceFor the event intensity

The driver type

6 6

5

2

2

For instance: case Zone D

h)Lab 8: Prediction horizon-lines

Long range

Short-term predictions

FORECASTS

6 months to

1 year

1, 2 and 3 years

5-6 years

1 day3 days5 days1 week

1 month

Functionorganization

Missionorganization

Weather

Hydrology

Medium range

II-FlOOD DETECTOR MAP

a)Lab 1: Level curves and flood indicator distribution: -the best scenario location-

profile A

profile B

HmHM

DetectorsLand sub-surface

profiles (topography)

100 km

H0

Plan

Profile curves

HoHo

Influence of 100 kmRecommendation zone River course

Good

WaterElevationAverage line

d0dm

d

Safety beam(100km)

Level curve(Profile A)

d’d’m

d’0

Projection

Terrain profile

0

[Ref.note: Spot satellite detection accuracy is 2.5 meters]

Profile B

b)Lab 2: PBS: The best location for a flood detector: In search of the look-out points

R+

R°

Level curveProfile A

Hh: house location

Hx+=Hx°+dxHy+=Hy°+dyHz+=Hz°+dz

d

µ100km

d0

Hh

dMdm

Hh

100 km safety range(Likelihood of a pollution

zone from a water feature)

Radar lecturesat various rangedistances of the waterelevations

oR°

HouseIn danger

Flood can be preventedif there isa flood detectorAnd/or mitigations

Flood increases and detections Give: speed, timeand distancewith RFID mapping

d0

dm

d

dM

Flood detectorsat various distances:H min, H int., H max

The frontline for therising flood water. Theinundation is between100 km and the d0Distance line.from the house insideThe 100 km zone

Flood frontline

detectors

d

C2-PROJECT EXTENSION

III-MODULAR SCAFFOLDS

Linkages between flood protections

(Personal projects)

Technology pole Against tsunami

Flood detectionmission organized

Giant floodsUp to 20 meters

Speed of the flood –Tsunamy-when crushing the coat line40 km/hour

Detection and warningten kilometers beforethe coastline. Emergencyevacuation –running fast- towards the Technology pole against tsunamies.

Protection system is a 15 minutesemergency preparedness to insumersiblesafety boats. In approach, they are analogous to those boats found. in Disneyland Parks or the Queen mary safety boats. Capacity: 50 people. The structure is totally covered and waterproof. Boats are attached –linked- to a very high poles (40 meters)-like those found in highways or football stadiums.The cable –like those used for jumping--are a mix of elastic cable with the propertyto amortize the crash between the tsunamywave and the tsunamy safety boat.

Flood stations for data communication with civilian protection units

Flood detectors based on the use of local resources at look-out points for floodf warning and forecasting coupledto the flood stations with RFID and personal technologies: internet wireless, the mobile phone camera….

The platdorm for water droning.modular scaffolds fixed/raising with the flood elevation.

Civilian protection can be extended by using the adap-tation strategies and re-organizing the flood spacewith buildings analogous towater castles, lighthouses,cathedral architectures, old market places as elevation points-dry feet assembly zones) for civilian protection against flood

I-Civilian protections against floods

PROJECT

PLATFORMCONCEPT

SCAFOLDING ARCHITECTURE/PIPES OF VARIOUS

SIZES AND STRUCTURES

FLOOD

Lab1:The Flood Platform: various scaffolds of different sizes

Scaffolds: pipes of differentSizes and diameters give moreVersatility to the flood architectureEither for strenghteneing a house of Building an instant waste treatment to drain water, or making drone launchers.

Modularscaffolds

Look-outpoints

Drone bases

Waterplatform

Housestrenghtener

Flooddetection

Launcher station

Floodprotection

House consolidation

Vertical scaffold

Horizontal Scaffold

(waste treatment-pipes)

Foundation

N

PIPES

CLIPS

Modular scaffolds (Quick fixing point)

Modular Scaffold (Versatile fixing point) -New configuration-

The build-up components for the new architecture –scaffolds and nail scaffolds-- in order to make the house resilient to the flood flow-.Also, modular scaffolds help to make instant elevation points (dry-feet zones) for an affordable price. Pieces of metallic tubes (scaffolds)fixed together or on the bed rock or the house, put people above the flood water like reffinery –oil- platforms

Metallic tube (scaffolds)The kneel (gripping part of the scaffold)

Scaffold nail

A hole in the kneelA ring with holes give360° flexibility toThe flood architecture

The scaffold nail into the kneel hole (ring)

achieve and maintain rigidity between scaffolds

And the flood body architecture

A Scaffold

5 m - 10 m

kneel

Attachs to fix points: walls, poles…

+

Supporting body (wall)

Scaffold(pipe)

screws

( Section view)

Scaffold(Axis)

(Profile view)

To the body architecture(the platform)

Bed rock

Scaffolds Liasing with the board

+

hooks

+

Horitonzal scaffold

Vertical scaffold

Hooks

+

Board

(Z)

(Z)

(Z’)

(Z’)

(H)(H’)

The flood platform for civilian protection

Space lived for flood flows

5m

10m

15m

Quick and affordable elevation Points in flood prone regions

Kneel and nails

Bed rock

A wall

Details in Slide 137

Scaffold branch

Details inSlide 138

Details of the grips

Raising Platform

House: elevation houseMini-base for the drones

Elevation pointsAssembly point Refuge-shelter

Look-out point WatchForecasts

Flood elevationFlood

Indicator for alternative Aids: WAER,Water trucking

LocalFlooddetector

RFID

GPSPole

Internet

GPS Drone+

Water purifier

computerMobile phone

USB key

Cloud technology

Optical Flux

Assembly Base

Surgerain

My answer:choice

The flood platform

Architecture for important floods– over 10 meters--

Goal: Rendering people more reliant, self-sufficient and independant.

Sub-goal 1:Completion of flood adaptation strategies (advocated by ILEA the dutch water architecture and others and various schools, which philosophy orientations are to leave water floods to their natural expansionsIn digging pools, raising houses/villages with flood tides, building on elevation points or using the fengshui philosophy instead of building walls

Sub-goal 2 :Keep a middle trend between adaptation strategies and raising villages in order to get dry feet points during an important flood by changing our representation of ancient buildings like urban/villages cathedrals/churches, water castles, lighthouses that are vanishing from the countryside landscape for more up to date technologies and organize them for new roles like safety buildings during important floods.(All these building are proeminent buildings, strong and big enough to be assembly building during a flood rescue at predicted arrival times.

New developments for the project (16/12/09) -Ref.: Jean Taricat, Histoires d’architecture, Dessin de Jacques Ziegler, Editions Parenthèses, p.48--

Divisions harmoniques d’un segment de droite

1/2 1/2

2/3 1/3

1/3 2/3

1/4 3/4

New developments for the project (16/12/09)-adaptation from:(Ref.: Jean Taricat, Histoires d’architecture, Dessin de Jacques

Ziegler, Editions Parenthèses, p.48)

Alberti, proportion de la loge Ruccelai (Florence)

d H=9d

Modular order: ideally the height is a multiple of the corresponding column diameter

kD

Dk=1,…,nn c N

Platform

d

kd

New developments for the project (16/12/09)(Adaptations from: Ref.: Jean Taricat, Histoires d’architecture, Dessin de

JacquesZiegler, Editions Parenthèses, p.80)

A

11 m A

A

A/2

A/2

A

22 m

B

B

1 2

3 4

5

6

8

7The dry feet platformAbove the flood waterAre towering like islandsSurrounding with coralReefs.

People will find a safe flood place at the top of high building like churches, cathedrals or ancient market Places. Thebuilding undernith allows water flows to circulate while The top stores (over the water play the role of sheltering floors. Connections between wings of various buildings canBe entirely with the use of Modular scaffolds. (analogous to ancient Market places. Note: whole safety zones could be built with modular scaffolds.

Civilian protection against flood:The water castle.

Water castle part(receiving humanes)During a flood

Water castle foot

Perhaps some castle could beEmpty from their naturalWater before the flood predicted Arrival. To shelter humans at risk of flood. It meansThat community castle would Have a system to pump outThe water before flood.

Stairs

Sheltering room: 50 people or more

Island development

Flood prone region

The flood water (innundation)

Safety island(dry feet zone)

river The Building of a canal isa trap for water

Little bridge

islandbridge

Canal(with more or lessa drain)

The light house tower

Flood subsurface

Lighthouse

Entrance door(under water

During the flood)

road

Water elevation

4 th floor window

C2-RISK IDENTIFICATION

I-RIVER DISCHARGE MODELS

a)Lab 1: Basic description of the river bed compartments

Land surface

River bed

rbs

H0

(average elevation)

River sectionH0 minH0 max

Land surface

Flow (m3/s) = river section x velocity= (H0) x (w) x (d)

Canal width (w)

river

1s

H0

wd

River bed rock

Riverchannel

strand

b)Lab 2: Hypothetical river regimes (discharges)

H0

H0 min

H0 max

Time

Elevation [H = E(t)]

Drougth season Wet season

annual mean

Jan- Dec-Calendar

Equatorial river discharge

Tropical river discharges

Flood line

June

E(t)

II-FLOOD DISCHARGE MODELS

a)Lab 1: The real work is on tHARhe flood line 90°-- Flood detectors located every 20km, at a specific time frequency gives: the flood water elevation. It is the vertical speed of the flood.

90°½ village

100km80km60km40km20km0km

river

H (elevation)

5m

2m2.5m

5m

1m

The flood average travel is 10km/h on line 90°. At 6 am, the flood frontline was at 40 km fromthe village. Flood elevation recorded at that time was 1 meters –local detection using the flood detectors.At 8 am, the flood frontline reached a lowest peak. It means the flood receeded during the Last 4 hours before reaching the village. Certainly it was a flash flood of 2 hours away from the village.

Detection 2

Detection1

0.5 m increasesbetween 100km80 km and

Assumption from previous slide Flood speed =10km/hFirst detection at 0 h 00 (6 hours trip) 0h006h00

Detection of the verticalflood speed

?

90°½ village

100km80km60km40km20km0km

river

6

12

18

b)Lab 2: The real work is on the flood line 90°--It is made by the flood detectors placed every 20km. Data

collected along the line gives the flood frontline distance and horizontal flood speed (the flood velocity)

0

24

Day hours

Case: Flood trip : 6 hours. Travel distance: 60 km (on line 90°)Average flood speed, S = 10 km/hour (at night) [60/6=10]Flood frontline: The flood is at 2 hours out of reach of the village.

First detectionat 0 hour

First detectionat 6 o clock

What is the flood status expectation in 2 hours or with a detector placed at 20 km from the village?

?

c)Monitor 1: Variance of the flood water level with time

-Ref.: average level of run-offs in the flood corridor)-

Hours

(Height)

1m

1h

2m

2.5m

5m

1m

Meter per hourVertical speed of the flood(Variance per hour)

4h 6h (Time)

d)Monitor 2 :Other representation of the flood elevation -at specific distance points-

0.5

With flood detectors spaced of 20 km, the organizationis measuring average results

2.5

4 m

Average water increaseBetween 2 measurements of 20Km(In principle every 2 hours)

100km

detection 2 increase

detection 3Increase

detection 4decrease

1m

80km60km40km20km+22+0.5=2.5+2.5+2.5=55-4.0=1

2m

Detection 1Increase

Variance per hour Multiply by 20km =>it is the tranche of debit if multiply bythe corridor aperture.

?

1

4

3

25

0km

>0

<0

+2.0+0.5+2.5+1.0+6.0-5.0

+1.0

-5.0

d1d2d3

d5?

d4Total

Data recorded Database fillings Forecasting

III-FLOODING MODELS

a)The link between sediments and flooding

Sediment processing over the river bed rock

The river water sediments travel down the river

Increase of the thickness of the sediment layerIncreasing layersof sedimentsinducing the

flooding portion

Volume of water over the sediments

The water lifted outside the river bed under the influence of the sediment layer formation

Level subsurface 1

Level subsurface 2

Before the sedimentprocess

After theSediment process

Water flowing downstream the river

b)Flooding due to canal sediments

The sediments in formationcreating the flooding portion

The flood portion in formation(rise up and eventually flooding)

River flowsDownwards

X

X’

P1 (flooding sediment –traceable layers)

P2 (After)

P1 (Before)

Accumulation of Sediment layers

c)The link between sediment layers and the flooding portions

Riverbed rock

Natural sedimentationof the river bed

The sediment top layer

Equilibrium 1 (Before the hydrolgy hazard)

Equilibrium 2(After the hydrology hazard)

XX’

T=t1T=t2

Y’2

Y2

Y’1

Y1

A2 (t2)

A1 (t1)

T: timeA: sediment layerF: flow (with the sediment)

The sediment top layerFlow 1

Flow 2

Water subsurface 2

Water subsurface 1

FlowstreamFlowstream

A1-A2- = H1+H2 2

H1 = F1+A1H2 = F2+A2F1 =/ F2F2 = F1+A2

d)Lab 3: Issues from Lab 2:. Overflow = run-off inflitration in excess of water infiltration

Initial flow volume

Excess (due to rain)

Flood zone

L70°

L115°

Villagelocation

00

20km

40km

60km

80kmFlood detectors

Run-off infiltrations in excess cannot be drained by the flood prone zone during flooding.

The local detectors are measuring the speeds and the elevations of an excess of water that cannot be drained bythe river canal and the split water from the canal spreads on the strand as run-off infiltrations in excess

+

Run-off infiltration in excess

Flooding portion

IV-THE FLOOD PORTION THEORY

a)Lab 1: The water flow mouvement (the flood portion model)

A

River bed

A Section of waterfrom the river

River flow(Q= m3./s)

Land surface

(B:b1, b2, b3)

Initial increase: Increase 1= B. It has 3 components (b1: speed, b2: elevation, b3 flow A section). It is less than the riverbed security (rbs) rbs – b2 = rbm (river bed margin) room left over before the flood starts. Flood starts if b2 > rbs

Second increase: increase 2 = C (C1, C2,C3). This time, b2+c2 > rbs and b2 = b’2 withb’2 = rbs (with b2 + b’2= rbs)

(rbs)

River canal

River bed margin (rbm)River bed security (rbs)

Flood portion

Debordement formula(rbs-rbm) +d= c+d

d

c

(1)

(2)

(3)

Equilibrium equationrbm = 0 when rb = rbs+a

Canal equationrb = A+rbs

b)The study of the flood portion model

Flood portion

Flowinginto land

Sediment layer obstructing the canal

V-THE WATER TRUCKING

a)Lab 6: Project Risk

Cause

Problem

Impact i

Impact jImpact n

….

(Warning:project risk case: a water hazard –a flood- with one cause and oneproblem only with various impacts)

b)Various causes for water trucks being disabled. Here, I selected a water infiltration source-flood-

Cause Pb

Pb

Pb

Cause

Cause

Variouscauses

Floodinfiltrations

DisabledWater trucking

Driverkilled ImpactImpact

Impact

Impact

Hazard

Multi-hazardeventHazard

Hazard

Looting

Lootingwater

Van stolen

Impact

Water

House scrambling

Sheltering

c)Problem: Disabled water trucking (and project product life cycle -PLC-)

H1

H2

TimeFlood condition requirement definition => H2 – H1 > h value at which water trucking Is not physically possible

h

Elevations

AverageRun-offline

AverageRun-offline

Project starts

Project ends

(Project life cycle)

Water trucking

DeviationincreasesWater

dischargecurve

Control1

Control2

-Monitor-Look-outPoints-Flood detector-RFID-MIS

Production zone Flood

Forecast

WMOLook-out points

Forecast before floodOn order during flood

>0Capacity building Manufacturing DropsPreparadness

Project operation

V-FLOOD DETECTIONS

Lab 1: Issue on the technological detections-Where to position the first flood detector?-

D2T=t

D1T=0

River

Average water rises between 2 detections

How long it takesThe water—water river)to be 2 m high(elevation 2m)

ImportanceOf the locationOf the first detectorTo inform about theReal water elevation in orderTo reduce the variance betweenThe real elevation and the average

Too closeTo the river

Laws on flood maybe sum up in:-the soil structure, and-the infiltration capacity.

2 cases: predictible and unpredictible floodPredictible:Look-out points, evidence based policies of the very likely placesWhere statistically the occurrence of robust floods are highly (In this case one should not leave in this area )

See statistics on standard deviation and risk (1 sigma, 2 sigma….)

Issue with the detection of the first flood: where and when the 0.5 meter water increase occurs, in between the 2 detections. [When does 0.5 meter added to 2 meters ?]--towards a simulation of the first water elevations, non-fixed discharge--

2m

Detection 1T=0.002.5m

Detection 2T=2.00

River

The real curveof the flood elevation:The Flood level increases

Average water levelsthrough 2 detections

at intervals of 2 hours

ExcessOf waterFrom the 1rst detection

Detection 1:Portion of riverflow that travelsinland and can createthe flood.

Issues:

What is the appropriate interval of time for 2 flood measurements? – Normally, the simulation of an hypothetical flood trip travel time between 2 detections allow the determination of the flood speed by the relation: x=vt, x being the trip distance travelled by the flood during the time (t).

In principle, the distance x is unknown until, it has been measured (or simulated).In our case, it is known when the flood detectors are put in the flood zone for Monitoring purpose.

In real works, the implementation of a distance indication with flood detectorspreceeds the speed measurement and also, the time delay measurement between 2 detections that suceed.

Note: Besides using technologies to record flood speeds, an experienced flood person--from the local environment presumably-- may be able to have a feeling for the flood speeds—as with various monitors, also-- and do the reverse operations to assess several flood parameters.— It is flood forecasting without technologies.

d)Flood portion as open system exchanging with the environment

Flooding portion

undergroundsoil

Bed rock

River bed rock

Flood occurs if the soil impervious to a certain extent (see slide 68: flood science and the soil water infiltration capacity)

Flood prone regions

canal wall

Sediments obstructing the canal

river channel

Sub-surface

Soil permeability( K)

Water movements in/out

K= kh (soil structure) + kv (infiltration capacity/perviousness)

e)Visualization of the run-off infiltration in excess(Horizontal Permeability/perviousness coeff. kh)

Flooding

Saturated zone

Transition zone

Impervious surface

Pervioussoil

Wetling front with antecedent water penetration

flood

Run-off infiltration in excess if too high it is creating a floodFlood risk: H-h > 0 (water trucking cannot go)

kv

kv: coefficient of perviousity (soil vertical permeability)

River canalSoil

h)Flood detectors are measuring 2 kinds of excessive waters (run-off waters in excess)

Transition SaturatedWet with

antecedent

Soil structure by a river stream(underground under-influence of the canal

with the permeability Kt )

River canal

in and outWater movements

Underground Water circulations

K: permeability coefficient, K=kv +kh, kv :vertical permeability--when there is the subsurface water that penetrate the soil sourced from the flood (if the surface is not impervious kv=0)kh: horizontal permeability due to infiltration cpacity depending of the soil structure –see slide 68-

kv

Natural river channel

i)River flow equations

River bed characteristic equationsrb = A (a1, a2, a3) +rbsrb = a +( b +rbm)rb= a + b + c (equilibrium equation with b+c= rbs)

Debordement formula(rbs-rbm) +d= c+d

Equilibrium equationrbm = 0 when rb = rbs+a

j)Lab 8: Departure detector (Dd)

river

Flood indicator (Dd)

A

B

Annual mean

rb-A-G = BA__

b= BA__

Gauging capacity

Detection(Indicator)

G

rb

Departure

Visual check(room left)

Flood portion

Where the first flood detector should be placed (Departure detector: Dd)?

k)Lab 9: Special cases for the inundation equation

Case 1rbs – rbm = 0 rbs = rbm-river bed of the canal is with the annual mean of water elevation

Case 2rbm – rbs < 0, river flows varied between the averageWater elevation and the maximum water elevation

l)Lab 10: Split Over Strand condition (SOS)

b2+c2+d2 > rbs split over strand (sos)

I have divided the space over the H0 in 3 parts:-One part related to variations within the standard deviations (part within the river bed security and such: c2 < rbm)-no debordement--The part that creates the flood within the rbm that does not split over (sos), when the equilibrium equation is satisfy (desequilibrium equation)The split over condition is validate (sos) for a d2 >0 -Part 3: the sliding part is when the rbs is reduced due to change in theWeather conditions, H varies within the standard deviation outside floodand the river bed security is reduced due to increases of H c [Hmin, Hmax] It is a factor affecting the flood severity

H0

b2

c2

d2

rbs

The Sliding theory

d2/rbs= [rb – H(t)]/rbs

rbm

d2

VI-FLOODING MODELS

a)Lab 1: Basic models for flooding

River bedrock = 0 (elevation)

[Maximum height of the river canal= rb (river bed)]

rb

knownCanalcharactristics

Sub-surface water (average: annual mean)H0

Notes:1- Index (0) in H(0) is for a specificRiver, it could be river 1, or river 2Etc…2-A means Sum Ai/ n (i=1,2…n)n c N, is the mean of a discret distribution of n measurement forA specific period of time (in theexample 1 year. Thus,H0 the annualmean is a year mean in the region 0(see slide 90 on various river dischar-ges and standard deviation – varianceOf the annual mean of water eleva-Tion in a river canal

(Y)

Riverstrand

Rivercanal

(Flood prone area)

Land subsurface

Y = y(t) variation of the flood portion over time. Also, portion of the river above the river bedSecurity (rbs)

rbs

*Normally known through detections of the wateradvancing inland--flood water raising up, water elevation occurs because of the lack of soil inflitration with the time and soil structures and the distance travelled by the flood from the river channel (see slides 67)

Flooding formula

(rbs-rbm) +b= a+b

rbm

b)Model 1 for flood (improvment):remarks

Preliminary remarksParameters that influence Y= y(t). Y= y(t) is the water elevation dueto flooding on the land sub-surface. But does flood occurs? How, When and where? What are the characteristics of the flood?Which elements are influencing the flood characters: -weather types, -river flows, -canal characteritics, -landsurface crossed by the flood.

Models presented here and their improvment will attempt to answerthese questions in order to find the best detection network.

c)Model 1 for flood (improvment):bis(validation framework)

Understanding the basic flood modelConditions for the basic flood model to be applicable.

2 steps process to validate the model:

Step one: what are the important data to captures in the floodpredicted arrival (or real flood undetected with traditionalMeans –but could be detected with the new technology)

Step two: enouncement of the requirements:

d)Model 1 for flood (improvment):ter(description of the flood with ordinary words)

Description of the flood concept (application for the strand of A river –water innundation coming from water flowing over its upper riverbed limit ---called the river strand portion of the river canal facing the land).Perhaps, it can also goes beyond –question to answer later

After crossing the river bed, the flood portion travel a distanceVariable according to the characteristic of the travel surfaceon,which it has occured

[Intermediate questions?How far the model can be applied beyond the strand?Is the detector well placed at the fringe of the strand?]

e)What happen when water goes beyond its average mean and above the river bed security: Inundation equation (rbs – rbm) + b = a+b –study of the river

bed security and flood conditions)

H0

rbsrbm b

a

f)Excess of overflow --run-offs in excess in the river due to the rain than cannot be drained and, which is createing the split over the river bed –flood--

River bed security(rbs)

River averageNormal elevation

A (a1, a2, a3)

B (b1, b2, b3)Excess of run-off that does not

Create flood

River bed margin (rbm)

b2

a2

Flooddetector 1

Flooddetector 2

20km

C (c1, c2, c3)Excess of run-off that

Create flood

FlowA

FlowB

FlowCc3

(rb)flood=c3+b2 -rbs

Flood portion FlowP

Split of the flood portion ouside the river bedI think it is the portion of water over the river bed that creates the flood over a period of time related to the time being spent by the Water outside the river bed.This portion need to be detected

VII- Sampling Model of the flood portion

E (t)

E (t): thickness of the flood portion varying with time

River width

River height

rbs

Average water discharge(river flow)

H0

Hmin

Hmax

A gauging method applied to the river canal

dry river (empty)

Maximum water river subsurface(or upper limit of the river canal

or river bed or strand for the flood event)

Strand

river bed or canal height

H

Gauging equationH = rb - rbs

rbs

Gauging = reading

Reading zoneon the rulers

rb

rbs: river bed securityMaximum discharge Acceptable in the river bedbefore flooding (possibleflood or innundation)

assumption: outside

dry bed season, the River bed is not empty

Flood equations for the riverflood=c3+b2 –rbs>0 (equation 0)Equation 1: b2 +c2 > b2 + rbm (flood innundation condition)Equation 2: a2+b2+c2 – rb < 0 ( river flow equation)Flood equation: a2 + b2 + c2 - rb > 0 Equation 3: c3 > rbm = rb – (rbs+a2) (2nd equation for flood condition)b2=rbs (identity condition)Equilibrium equation: a2 + b2 +c2 = rb = rbs + margin + a2

Issue with the flood equations: these equations take into account only the elevations factor of the waterRiver flow, in which is our interes : components (2) (a2, b2, c2 of flows A, B and C) of the various flows (normal A, excess B and excess creating the flood C). Component 1 is for speed, and 3 the flow sections.

Such basic flood equations supposed that the speed and/or the sections of the flows are unchanged during the riverflow (total river flow) and the various river flows.Later, we will see that only the dimension of the flow (Q) is conserved. It is the volumeOf water per time, which can be conserved (with assumption of a fix regime– falseAssumption I suppose depending of the type of flood as flood flow is never fixed butTransitory. I may expect to find the time that would help for this fix regime and toPosition the flood indicator during the season and the right place on the ground in orderTo reduce uncertainties though the detections

Adventages: good for a first simulations of the flood detection model. Locations of detectors and goingBeyond average measure that could be dangerous in assessing flood water speed and elevations

VII-Summary of the flood equations

III-THE FLOOD PORTION APPRAISAL

Lab 8: Assumption on the flood frontline speed

Toward a conclusionA simulation model: transport

Travel of a water packageThat varies with timeStart time t= t0, flood occurs

Flood portionQF?

First floodInitial Flood portion QF = [w (m)] x [y (m) x speed record]

Issue with the flood detection: is it really relevant to differentiate vertical speed (water elevation of the flood/second) and the horizontal speed (the distance travelled on the land by the flood front line?Exploration of the mobile model to simulate flood

dy/dt (vertical speed)

dx/dth (horizontal speed)

dz/dt (lateral speed

Flood as a mobile

Resp: different casescenario from the flood type classes:1-flood flows can be very very slow (so slow that one may think there is none, the flood network is not working). ThisRelative muteness is measlideng as for sur the likelyhood of a flood is high.(emergency evacuation order would failbecause of the long lead time for the flood predicted arrival time. 2-Short lead-time: speedy flood with low elevation3-giant flood/short time responsiveness4-giant flood long-time to arrive

This is related to the flood powerP=W/t (robust flood versus non robust flood

This package of water (variation 2.5m X 20km is travelling instantanetly to is new configuration (water package) either new water increases or decreases the total mass of the flood water. In physics it is the flood movement quantity. It help to assess the impact of the flood water during a crash collision on its trip.

20km0

2.5 meters

Line 90°

Assessment of the initial flood flow

The first flood flow is different than the first flood portion

FT: Flood travelRT: River travel

2

3

1

2

1TT: Total travel 3

Travel = flow

Flow equation3= 1+2 are supposedTo be constant and conservativeFlow eq: speed x elevation x widthS3V3 – S1V1 = S2V2With S (section) =W x elevation

: x(t) . y(t). z.

x y

z

a (t)

b(t)

c

a(t) . b(t). c

C

A (t)

B(t)

Conservative Equation of flows

(Velocity measured during 1 second

Section ofFlow 1

d(a)

d(a): distance travelled for 1 second is the velocity

d(b)

d(b): total water elevation before floodingdx: quantity loss from flooding (elevation component)dy:quantity loss from flooding (width component)dz: quantity loss from flooding (

dz

dxdy

Flood flow

Total flow(before flood)

Very important assumption: Hypothesis all waterflows passing from the river into the flood travel and keep travel on the same axis (da (variation on the river

bed goes on dx)

dx

drx

drx=dr-da

r

a

rx

dw

dw

Obviously it may not be the case. It is why we work with the pressure (pipe representation)

Flowbefore flood

Flooding flow

Flow afterflood Flow 3

Flow 2

Flow 1

P 3

P2

P1P= F/S

Bernouilli equation½ µV(i) + m(i) g H(i) + P(i) =ctei=1,2 and 3

Flow equations

Fi= X(t) (i) . Speed (i)i=1, 2 and 3

2

flows after the flood(assumption river flow and flood flow speed are the same and section?

A(t) – a(t) = x(t) B(t) – b(t) = y(t)C(t) – c(t) = z(t)

Flow= section . Speed

Flow 1= Flow 2 + Flow 3

Flow 1= w . rbs. A (1)Flow 2= z(t).y(t).z(1)Flow 3= Flow 1-Flow 2

t= second unit

Conclusion: Flood front line speed: average and real –simulation-

Horizontal distance

10 km

1hour

1.25m

Water elevation

Horizontalspeed

2 questions:1- Can we simplify bernouilli for flood2- Can I validate the model developed without taking into account some assumptions

III-THE FLOOD PREVENTION

Lab 6: My own flood laws

The flood laws: the transformation of flooding into flood

Law 1: The water suppply to the soil surface (water infiltration)Law 2: The soil structure

(For details of these laws see slides on water infiltations-Ref: the geographer Joseph Holden- and, the soil struc-Ture –Ref. Dr. John Anthony Allan-)

A sample model for simulated flood (flood stimulation?)

Water in excess fromThe river bed security

That create flooding

rbs = rb – H (gauging eq.)

strand canal

river width (w)

Flow (m3/s)= [w (m)] x [H (m)] x [V (m/s)] (flow equation)

X = a

Y= 2

X2

D1

D2 Y=2.5

In my flood prone zone, assumption is a = 0and (di – dj) = 20 kmare fixed distances between the floodDetectors. (i= 1…n, and j =i+1). (i, j) c N x N

H2O2 m

a)Lab 9: Flood detection, forecast and accuracy

1-Based on: the flood velocity, the flood elevation, the flood pollution,the road congestion and a disabled water trucking

2-Possible Emergency response: WAER is alternative health and flood plan 3- Flood Modeling with:1-Basic radar analogy detection2-Basic math: arithmetic, statistic and geometry for the simulation of flood flows,flood elevations and flood packages3-Transport system with queueing (waiting line), stock of passengers for fine tuning4-The fluid Bernouilli law model is the ultimate for flood detection and what are thethe adaptation for the indicators5-Importance of subsurface slopes and soil status in flood elevation and speed formation6-assumption: flood events are predictable and flood sources are: water inflitration capacity due to the sediment accumulation in the channel river obstructing the flowand creating a flooding condition. The flood occurs, again, due to water infiltration capacity this time on the flood travel land (flood prone regions). --Normally a bank riverchannel fits its flow -- and vice-versa, a river flow creates the perfect conditions for accomodating its seasonal flooding.– All disasters come from the fact added to the physical geography is a human geography.

d)Lab 2: Radar map detections (without radars)

100km pollution zoneFrom the water feature

(1) Flood indicator(speed -cyclometer type- and water elevation –hydrogaph type--Resulting from gauging detections-New technologies-

Flood detectorTechnology (1)

riverDistance range circles

100 km

Mount

ProtectiveWall

River zoneSurveillance(sector)

North

90°

45°0°

180°

270°

235° 135°

315°

115°

70°Community

village

b)Assumption with 2 flood indicators – the flood velocity and the flood elevation detector spaced 20

km away.

Flood detector functions: are equivalent to one man or 2men carrying field activities 1 and/or 2:

Activity 1: measurement of time (with a clock/watch)Activity 2: measurement of the elevation with a ruler

Notes:A-The technology –flood detector-- is an automation of both activities.B-One or 2 operators depending of their skills and the difficulties to access to measurements during the flood. C-If the technology is implemented, one should not need labour for gauging (the flow elevation) and measuring the flow velocity.

c)Lab 1: The flood map drawing

Not a ready made one-should be drawn before/jointly implemention of a flood detection system.-1° find the true north (map orientation)-2° define obstacles in the landscape that determine the flood corridors-3° draw them on the map: obstacles + corridors-4° position the equipment relatively to the detection goals-5° find entry/exit roads to the flood prone corridor to bring :materialand equipment safely-6° power (energy and data cables or wireless) all material and Equipment.-7° Install safety zones for humanes-7° testing and stand-by (operations)

e)Lab 3: River surveillance with the flood detector-Potential flood corridors-

Mount

70°

Wall

115° 155°42°

Elevation (H), speed (S) and time (T)H and d=ST river

Flood detectors

Flood penetration inland(outside the river banks)

d:Distance range (GPS location)

Community village

100°

GPS location or RFID mappingDatabaseComputertreament

SpeedAndelevation

Wateralternatives

Flood prone zone

f)Lab 4: Community village protection:event scenario

70°

115°

Mount

Villagezone

walls

FloodDetectors

100 km

80 km

60 km

40 km

20 km

90°Flood station

a river

N

Flood frontline

80°

100°

Flood corridor(70°,115°)

g)Lab 5: Importance of a flood detector map

070

CommunityVillage

(30,000 households)

CommunityVillage

(30,000 households)

080

090

100

110

120115

110

1008060402000 32 68

Flood frontline

The flood detectorsconvey information on:-flood speed-flood elevationThese knowledge givetime for a solution:Water supply, evacuation,Other preparedness forFuture risks

km

degree

Flood station

H00 -H20 = 20 km NTo read the map

Corridor 070° – 115°

Benefits brought by Virtualization

Lower expenses(physical assets reductions)

Business continuity(No redunancy or back-ups ratio 1:1 is avoided)

High availability(independence of virtual devices)

Fast Installation(Use of a software)

Corporate governance (Transparency rules for the central point=security)

(Source adaptation AT &T)

Hardwares

Hypervisor

OperatingSystem

Virtualization=squeezing process, memory, network…

Definition: computer device reductions (compactation) to serve primary machines and getting out a biggest bang for the bugsInterests: Cost, energy and environmental savings of the IT infrastructureConsolidations of servers and data centersOperating system works with one type of hardware while virtualization helps to standardize: no worry about hardware or softwaresThe virtualization software, firmware or external providers (hypervisors or virtualization layer) maps real and virtual resources

WBS New Technology (NT) RFID Grouping in the virtualization process at Integrated Flood Resource

Managament Levels

RFID(A2)

RFIDs

Operating System

RFID(A1)

RFID(A3)

Configuration Management

Adaptation :Sample case of organisation with RFIDIs in the RFID Journal: the Dolphin StadiumCalifornia State, people security

Sample of case study: RFID and security (Dolphin Stadium)Also, AIRBUS

-Wireless network able to support POS systems-RFID is competing with WI FI (less equipment)

-Adventage of the stadium: possibility to run high bandwidth services: voice mail, data and video tansmisssion, interesting in outdoor transmission and specific environments-illuminating of blackholes and reducing stocks by 50% -- Ref.: Technology Provider/integrator: check points systems, KooBra software; Location Pfaeffikon, 8808, switzerland, Charle Vogele group, largest Clothesretailer in Switerzeland--

(Source internet: RFID Journal

WBS of New Technology (NT) –RFID network

Hypervisor Hypervisor Hypervisor

OperatingSystem

RFID RFID RFID

ManufactureLevels:-Assembly bases-Water stations-Buoys-Flood detectors

IFM Level

PART X

QUALITY

Indicators (output management)

Flooddata

Sustainability

DailyBusiness

Quality OutputAlter

natives

6 sigma

Dow Jonesindex

Sales

Inventory

Raw material

Manpower

Quality

Flow speed

Elevation

Hazards

Causes

Problems

Impacts

River size

Infiltations

Softwares

10-20

Too much

Too little

average

Stock

1-Flood indicator for forecasts

The flood Indicator is an appropriate technology and its coverage zones would help to scale-up flood detections that cannot be predicted by the software simulation modelings or the radar detections.

Either because, there is no data captures:« I have considered there are more unknowns – uncertainties– than flood evidences/certainties or valid predictions due to the fact that the Earth planet is still empty with direct presence of humanes.

or if increasing lead-times of predictions are WMO new goals to improve forecasts (Ref.: WMO conference in Costa Rica 2006), it implies additional investment in more data captures in order to scale-up the new coverage zones till today not covered, for instance the sea, swamps…other unhabited areas on Earth or the outer space. »

These additional traditonal means are: vessels, aircrafts, sattelites,…weather stations and there are till today not being consider as sustainable.The software modeling successes the data captures and the new investment.

2-Flood indicator for forecasts

Today, more factors need to be taken into account to get eventually these flood forecasts right: weather, climate, hydrology, population growth, new urbanism, sustainable development, policies…

However, my viewpoint is flood studies are a dependancy of the weather andclimate studies.

The importance -- various types-- of floods in the economy allow to think that flood forecasting should have an independant status from the weather forecasts.

The weather forecats can play an important part in the prediction of the hurricane seasons--, but, flooding conditions can occur in places very loosely connected with the flood place. For, instance the flood in Sudan can are sourced from the rainy season in Ethiopia. Also, the fact that countries are sharing water basing, theyorder to develop its own methodology. Can flood also develop without the weather elements (?)

3-Flood indicator for forecasts

Anyway, being independant does not mean absence of collaboration. Flood hydrology development would always needs the weather forecast and an autonomous research actions. in this case the flood indicator is an appropriatetechnology, non-administrative, favouring intermediate technolgies, decentralization, use of local materials and assistance to complement existing system (WMO, IHO…(?)) and improvment of non technology flood forecasts

Quality in detecting the water rise (a)

They are placed in strategy points (see PBS for flood indicator for flood detector locations). It is very relevant in zones, I previously called ponds or dark zones (holes) where their is no predictions.

Dark holes (Swamps, Camargue,…remote places on earth)?

Look out-points and floodDetectors in between theForecast knowledge points

Uncertainty 1 (Horizontal uncertainty)

Horizontal line (subsurface)

Quality in detecting the water rise (b)

Uncertainty 2 (Vertical uncertainty)

Horizontal line (subsurface)

Upper horizontal line

« Known » prediction zone

« Known » prediction zone

?Uncovered,Unknown predictions,Uncertainty zone

SolutionsDirect indicators.Measurement:Gauging manuallyor technically usingNon traditional technologies

PART Y

Resources

Production item+2 oz PocketWater purifier+Outdoor delivery

Product delivery:-aircraft drops-Product Capture:-Resource:+Event manager+boat+fishing equipment+mobile+address book+GPS

In good conditionsAnd functionalFor all households

During the alert

Before the alert

A-PROJECT ORGANIZATION

Delta

Sea

Flood station

DroneAssemblybase

Flood detectors

Warehouse(With water purifiers)

Direct transmission

RFIDtransmission

Water basin

To data centre(Network)

Drone At sea

Vessel

drone (stand-by)

Drone before launching

Mount

Lab 1: Integrated Flood Resource Management: WAER Project version

Role of the capacity buildersCoordination

IWRM

Datacentre

B-WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURES

Organisation project

Start Initiation

Planning

StageManagement

control Closure

Board

Workpackage

Mandate

WBS Level 1: Work Breakdown Structures (Division)(Country Administration representatives- IFRM)

IWRMA

IWRMB

IWRMC

CEO

IFRA1 IFRA2 IFRA3 IFRB1

WAER Integrated Flood Management units

Region A: means Flood zone in region A (highly probable flood occurrencein some part of the world at regular interval of time during a season. Predictionsthrough internationl forecast offices (official and forecasting clubs))

IFR A1 means: Integrated Flood Resource Management of the WAERNetwork using the drones and pocket water purifiers in thregion A, flood unitLocation 1. Prediction through WAER network is a tuning of official networksThat do not predict flood in the real world.

1 IWRM= 3 regionsDepending the size ofThe IWRM

(100km zoneas a reference distance)

ResourceBreak downstructure

Projectorganization

W.B.S.

Administrative organization, linked with power, externalities, use of forces to control weather and hydrology events, responsibilities for deliverables….

WBS Level 2: Work Break down structures(Hybrid) People representation-IFRM level)

WBS CEO

Products MIS System

SpateWAER Internet RFID

Accounting

Land,Real-estate

Merchandising

Purchasing

Personal

Self integrated

Country or region level of organization Integration of the flood preventionwater disability project. Work BreakDown Structure (WBS). This organization is facilitator of theFlood mission units (IFRs) as it givesThe CEO has more control on the businesscomponent and the function let him playA greater role in administrating the assetsSupplies

WBS Level 3: Work Break down structure(at Flood Service level)

SystemsMarketing

R & D

Manufacturing

CEO

ComputersComponents

IFMs

Products

IFMA

IFMB

IFMC

IFMD

Support

Project Manager

Sample of Project Manager avtivity in IFRB, equiping with computersAnd building a base

Finance

PART Z

FLOWCHARTING

Lab 1: Project Flowchart

The representative flowchart of the project for flood Forecasting and services --emergency preparedness and assistance are based on the WMO weather and hydrology service.

It is an hybrid organization combining the WMO with a model of flood detection, responsiveness, leverage that is proactive and local base (before asking for external assistance).

A flood detection mission unit with rapide reponse will help toreduce the lead-times between flood detections (predictions) and the intervention: preparedness-emergency and assistance.

Flow chart focuses on:1-Understand the business environment of the flood detection activities and ouputs –forecasts--, the couplage of the weather and hydrology services, the importance of the uncovered flood zones --unscaled-up flood areas or prone regions on earth--, which carry the flood uncertainties and the disaster likelihoodness impacted by the flood.

These are permanent risks for weather and hydrology service organizers/stakeholders, mainly today through the lens of global warming, raising waters, population growth, modern, urbanism, land planning,…

2- I supposedly emphasis the importance of dark zones/pools/ponds (refering to UNand other UN related organizations) for the increasing numbers of flood and severitysituations –where flood controls are difficult if none or no controls at all.

3-The new opportunities of flood development systems offers to the business community new potential markets, a water finance for all by using appropriate and compact solutions that do not disconnect people and their environment.

4-These chart flows are conveying an information for better leveraging the flood forecast organization: the purpose of the WAER project.

Flowcharting bases (WMO Services)

RELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHER PROJECTS (IIIA)

The short-term

• With the World Meteorlogical Organization (WMO)• -Common Methods:• =>Lead-time influences (WMO President, WMO website and WAER are targeting

lead-times) Production on Forecasts (WAER Pollution, No waste Policy, Speedy Supply chain,

Prediction and Production on forecasts, IFM: cater for the needs, plural answer valued more than a global answer)

• =>The Data treatment (Database versus Spreadsheet and internet)• -Distinctions:• =>WMO increases lead-times, WAER lead-time reduction strategy• =>Forecast zones for coverage (Sea versus flood zones and dark zones)• =>The technologies (Forecast Software simulation versus flood look-out points and

intermediate technologies) • =>The networks: public versus private or combination –also, outsourcing

Anyway, the real framework of flood reductions strategies (long-termism views)• =>Acting on Global Warming and Climate Change

=>Land planning either for agriculture or urbanism• =>Synergy between the various forecast networks

=>Development of simulation forecasted methods (short-termism) • =>Development of new thinking and innovations• =>Allowances and training for forecasts without tools• =>Role of education and sociology (narrative stories)• =>Improvment of traditional forecast methods

Flowcharting bases (WMO Flood division)

RELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHER PROJECTS (IIIB)-With the Integrated Flood Management Division (IFR HelpDesk)Focus on --possible-- distinctions -- Link with users: administrations, firms, process, public/private, poor people…

– Data captures : WMO: HelpDesk (and other MIS)– WAER: website, mobile phone, computers, stations, forecast technologies…– Sharing knowledge: backgrounds, organizations, networks– The Flood Law is under construction / WAER is a project combining existing

multinationals and various agreements: individual choice, contracts and cultures

– Virtual discussion with meeting groups (IFR HelpDesk widely open to users for flood matters: flood policies and flood tools)

– Mobile phone camera and internet may describe better what people lived than words.

– Use of googleFocus on common points-- Flood solving problem: flood issues-- Use of engineering worksFocus on indeterminations (unknowns)– Shape of the IFR HelpDesk: under testing period until March 2010.

Lead-times:Increase or decrease? – =>WMO/Weather and Hydrology service: increase (Ref.: WMO website)– =>M. Jarraud WMO President: increase (Ref: flood increase meeting in Costa

Rica 2007)– =>WAER:dicrease e.g. the acting should be as short as possible , – =>IFR HelpDesk: I don’t know/Nobody asked/ The director did not tell us/Could

be both/

Flowcharting bases (Engineering framework)

RELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHER PROJECTS (IIIC)Engineering works: rules of engagement? (contracts, rules of law, politics…)

Sharing knowledge: analogous to SIWI platformEngineering works

Real world of floodsWAER project is rather business orientate, but can ensure public service missions. (WMO is intergovernmental)

Phase 1:The possible answer is global (water purifiers+drones) e.g. project starts with

a technology business --Rapid Response Unit i.e. like the firefighters in action but for floods. Data are captured through users’ camera mobile phones and internet or forecasts at look-out points. A relevant samples of villages or part of a city could be investigated for the trials.

Phase 2 : A multibusiness caters customer needs with water adaptation strategies: « the Spate engineering » for flash floods to complete WAER is the ultimate goal.

While the IFR HelpDesk is a tool of WMO and Global Water Partnerships to link users, but the responses would not be a unique answer (Words of the Director Avinash C. Tyagi: « I do not know yet if it would be a single answer or can take various forms ».Also, extension of phase 1 to more households than previously.

Phase 3:Recruitement and training new staffs, people MIS development. Networking

Flowcharting bases (striving for output)

WAER high-level timing goals (output management)

• +Lead-time reductions• +Coupling Weather forecasts and Hydrology• Flood forecasting• Decoupling water trucking• Basic of productions: limiting steps, off-set

activities, throughout time• Speedy water supply chain: no waste, pollution

reduction, « low water stocks », production on forecasts

• Networking

I-Flowcharting for production activities –outputs

Non evident Flood

Drone Base search

Operational

droneWAER

Stand-byWAERActivate

W. Forcastdeliverables

Evidentflood

FloodForecasts >0

Floodevidence

Base found

SurgeRain

Floodforecast

Flooding

Checks

Droneorder

Sirenes RFID alarms

Visit checkNo forecast

No technology

Darkponds

Softwaresimulation

Radar detection

WAERdetection

Bad Weather

Visualforecast

Purifierorder

DronePreparation

order

Drone in progress

LauncherIn progress

Dronevoucher

Purifiervoucher

Proceedvoucher

Proceedvoucher

Launcherready

Droneready

Assemblyauthorization

OperationalDrone ready

Fired drone

Flood Zone identification

IdentifiedDrop zone

droppedPurifiers

Drinkingwater

Activationorder

Surge water

Hurricane

FloodMap

Flood Zone identified

Rainreport

Hurricane report

Preparadness

(pre-alert)

FloodForecasts <0

variationWMO forecast

WAERforecast

Personalwarning

Visualforecast

H2-H1>h

Hydrograph

Typhoonalert

No coverage

ForecastNeed

Preparadnessalert

MandateCapacitybuilding

No water trucking

Radiodecodeur

For. needanalysis

Forecastresolution

ForecastMeeting

A rescue team

Options

Water

surface

Base ready

Lab 1: Production

FlowChart

Preparadnesstarts

Test

Flood zoneaccess

Authorization

Lab 2: Grouping chart simplification

Mandate

Tests

WeatherCapacitybuilding

Hydrologydetection

Weatherdetection

Prepa-radness

Detectiontechnology

Hurricane

Surge rainFlash flood

No detection

Needs

Bases

FloodDetector

Look-out points

RFID

Preparadness

Activation

Production

Drops

Pole B:Preparedness Long-term

Pole DEmergency

Pole A:AdministrationPole C:

Preparedness Medium-term

Pole E:Forecast development

Flowcharting the 21 rst century flood issues: – no forecasts, flood scale-up issues and protection systems

Pole Administration

Pole Emergency

Pole PreparednessMedium range

Flood Forecast development

Pole Preparedness Long Term

FinancingMechanism

National countryExternal

Goal

Friendly banks and customers

Broadbanddevelopement

RFID

Internet

Mergers

New capacity building

Old CapacityCuilding

Old CapacityCuilding

BTSA

Consulting group

Mandate

II-Flowchart for financing-including the Camdessus 2003 report-

Flowchart for the financial assistance

Low Earnings

(LE)

Scenariocases

Above(LE)

Benefitcard

No resources

Alternative

resources

HouseholdsIndividuals

citizen

visitors

Duration/Time length

Over6 months

deliverables

Less than 6 months

deliverables

deliverablesdeliverables

The balance between giving a small loan and alternatives –like a membership cards for free –goods and services- ideallyCan be found in many developped economies in down tur crisis. This kind of help could be extended to emerging eco-Nomies dealing with distress flood situations.

Flowchart taking into account the integrated environment

For the System Environment Economic Accounting - SEEA – (Ref. UN Statitical Division on internetAnd the text of: Jinhua, Social Sciences in China, Vo, XXX, Nr 3, August 2009, 5-24, design and discussionof a model for China’s environmental and economic accounting system, financial contribution was made for by the National Social Science Foundation project )

Drone Work Package(Ref.: Christophe Leroux, CEA)

WP 1: Project ManagementWP 2: Specification and designWP 3: Mission control systemWP 4: Location and autonomous navigationWP 5: Obstacle avoidanceWP 6: Drone prototyping and operation system (Air robot)WP 7: Evidence based concept: 2 prototypes in operation to validate the experimentation in-board camera (3pixels)

WORKPACKAGES AS DEFINED BY THE AUTHOR OF THE DRONE PROJECT IN ABOVE REF.

Basic flood management principles:Influences

-Influence on the project Sustainability Standard and

-The global integration with trade, trade barriers, strategy development…

-Function or mission organizations regarding Appartenance to groups

- (philosophy, commerce, North, south, east west…marketing strategy)

-And pro poor business devlopment, technology transfer and International

aids and coordination

Influence quality control, norms and globalization

Role of regulations across borders, corridors, tax incentives

Strategies of development, group pressures, lobbying,….

History is never ending, the beating of times…

Business partnerships, governments as a resource

Inter mobility, infrastructure, environment…

Measuring results: World Bank Project & Operations,from the comprehensive Development

Framework, 1998

Board of Executive Directors

ImplementationCompletion

(End of disbursementPeriod)

Informationpurposes

Disbursementperiod:Pb, lessonlearnt

Project performanceAssessment

(6weeks)

Field Mission

sustainability impacts

Bank operation and

Evaluation staffReports

Impact eveluation (5 to 8 years)

Inspection panel

Review claims ofBank Project failures

Developmentactivities

Bank performance

ConformityWith Bank CAS

SingleProject

CountryAssistanceEvaluation

(10 studies/y)

SectorAnd thematic

Reviews(6 studies/y)

ProcessReviews

(2-3 studies/y)

BUSINESS CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY (CSR)

AGBAREnvironmental news: acquisition of an environmental company Interlab to strenghen its environmental dedicated division Aquagest Medioambiante: analysis of water and air

Certification, Profile: branches in Andulusia, Catalonia and Valencia. Turn over 7 million in 2008.

Also, Taeyoung Entec, an environmental Technology Korean firm acknowledged a €20 milllion investment from AGBAR. This is part of its development process in East Asia (with high economical growth potential)

(Ref. Internet)

Portofolio Project Management

Wateraerator

Plantingtrees

Modularscaffolds

Waterpumping

Product BreakdownStructure

(P.B.S.)

CO2 reduction

Water run-offs

Sustainability

No stagnant water

Pollution treatment

Water evacuation

Drainage

Water Cool down

Stop germ production

Anti smell

Senior house

Elevation house

Assembly base

Sub-goals

Water stocks

Infiltrations

Impact list due to flood flow infiltrations, only-Flood law, compensation and risk-Adaptation strategies, mitigations and urbanism-Contractual agreements, cultural aspects and sociology-Innovation in product development-Job creations linked to the IFRM (web, engineering,…)-Loss of earnings, GDP and country economy –indirectly…--Death toll increases, water poisoning and diseases (due to contaminated water)-Loss of properties and livelihoods-Multihazards: violence, crimes, looting…-Re-settlement (close to a source of water), evacuation and sheltering-Male asylum seekers and unprepared migrations-Women and children stress increases-Firms unabled to manufacture products and services without water: a farmer, ice maker…-Water pollution, people sanitation and hygiene-Energy: electrical consuption and the water source-Environmental changes-New thinking for technology, design and R&D-Humanitarian actions-Financing flood crisis and insurances-Others: Education, land planning, food security-Governance, poverty cycle, corruption…….

PROJECT FINANCE

Project finance

StartOf the year

StartOf the year

EndOf the year

EndOf the year

Money Money

ProfitProfitSound financial managementSound business managemntSound financial managementSound business managemnt

Pile of assets

At this stagethere is no distinctionbetween N.G.O.s,

Non-Profit- organizations

and firms’

finance

At this stagethere is no distinctionbetween N.G.O.s,

Non-Profit- organizations

and firms’

finance

Assetdevelopment

Communityservice

Wealthcreation

Returns On Assets

SalesN . unit sale price

Service Water supply

SuppliesDrone+Raw Mat

Returns Supports Plc

Passive returns

Ratio 1/6 (ADB)

….

Real estates Land price

Equipement Raw materials

InventoryWaterpurif.stock

Assets Cash Profi

Trade receivables

Customer debt

Others Assets: bases…

ROA

123456789

16

Accounting Rate of Return (A.R.R.)

Average Annual ProfitAverage investment

Theory base and problems with ARRROA, ROI, NPV approach

Valuation method: project NPV

Future Casflows = Initial Investment (1 + r) power N, N > 0

+N is the number of years: 1, 2…n (project range) Depends on the time horizon line of the investment

+The rate (r): in the water sector 10% to 20% (banking rate) IDA offers grant without interest rate

+The higher the hurdle rate for the project and the better it is for the investors

+Comparing 2 NPVs during a same time horizon line (project range) NPV (Water trucking) – NPV (Water purifier drops) > 0

Starting point for the project finance and how it serves the risk analysis

What I want to show from my feelings and based on the analysis: theproject is viable and which are these conditions if the business is to survive.

1°My feeling is water trucking is a nice way to deliver water during a flood « if the level of water is sufficiently low to allow tuck traffics on the innundated roads »(Still I will have to have a look at the distance trip between the source of watersupplying the trucks and the delivery place. What is the proportion of cost incurred on the whole water service)

Problem identifications: 1a) Which level of water prevent the traffic and/or how to choose eventually the good truck to reverse the truck charge during flood and also to satisfy the sustainable development principle—more energies and less pollutions--

1b) Also, could I anticipate these water level values through the forecast (prediction) before any moves for the water supply with drones. This would help to make an early choices for a water trucking alternatives –in the case the floodwater rises dangerously, and disable the water trucking. What is the risk for a water system to deliver water fromaircraft drops of pocket water purifier?What are these risks?

Productivity analysis of morethan one alternative to water droning

Bottledwater

Waterdroning

Tapwater

Watertrucking

Water solution comparative

adventage analysis

Harvestingwater

Comparing 2 water systems

System 1 (NPV 1)

System 2(NPV2)

Gain

My viewpoint is sustainabilityIs about efficiency of water systems

Profit (gain) is an indicator of sustainable development

No profitDoes not meanThe system issustainable

Is it sustainable,In the way of theBrundtland report?

Watertrucking

Waterdroning

Estimation 1: Numbers or fraction of 1.5 litres in 10000 litres: 3,333.33 –or the number of persons able to drink for one day with water trucking or water purifier truck equivalent per one day.

Water trucking 10,000 litres per truck

2 oz pocket water Purifier1.5 litre/day

Humane water consumption1.5 litre/day

1 water purifierper person per day

3,333.33 peoplewater purifiers per day(people for one day)

Conclusion: 1 water trucking is equivalent to 3,333- 2 oz Pocket Water purifiers (in one day). Now if an emergency service wants to supply fresh water for 3,333 people. It would have to drop an equal amount of water purifiers e.g. 3,333.33 the same day.

Estimation 2: If a pocket water purifier lasts 3 months, how many water purifiers are needed per equivalent for one truck volume of water per one day.

+A 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier delivers during its life time –3 months– 135 litres of water (3 months x 30 days x 1.5 litre per day)

The number of fractions of 135 litres in a water trucking with a water capacity of 10,000 litres are: 74 (10,000 water litres/ 135) It is also, the total of 2 oz Pocket Water Purifiers for 3 months for a communitySurvival with 74 member

Conclusion: 10,000 litres of water, which is the delivery of one truck in a day can help a community of 74 persons at risk of flood to survive 3 months (assumption of water consumption of 1.5 litres per day). It is the equivalent of water. Capacity truck per day and 74 people drinking the same amount of water for 3 months: X 74=k 3(Y), K is a natural number with one truck capacity equivalent to 10,000 litres. The index 3 means for 3 months and 74equals 74 people

Issues: where is the balancing act between water trucking and water droning

1 day 10,000 litres 1 truck3.333,33 people

3.333,33 purifiers

90 days 135 litres Per person 74 people 74 purifiers

IssuesWhere is the balanceWhat is the right proportionFor the emergency efficiency?

Treatment of the equationX(74) = K(3) (Y)

Y (10000 litres per truck)

X grouping of 74 people per drone

1

1

2

2 3

3

Curve 1:1 1drone =1 truck for 1 truckPer day with 10000 you can supply3333.33 person 1:1 (1, 10000, 3333.33 1 drone, 74 person, 3 months, 135 individuals)

Curve 1:3 drone/truck= 1/374p, 3 month, 135 l. People need more water

Curve 2:1Drone/truck=2

New ratio table

Water needs: 1.5 litre/day

truck

drone

10000 1

2 oz Pocket water Purifier: 55g.100 x 55g = 5500g=5.5kg

Assumption: How many drones are needed for the emergency every 3 months (Life time of a water purifier)

100 2 oz Pocket Water Purifiers/drone

SummaryTruck capacity:10,000 litre

3333 people/day74 people with one water purifier for 3 month

Time (month)

People 1.5 litre/person

50 pax.1 month

50

1

1 drone60 persons(40 Pocket

Water PurifiersFor security

Water alternative productivity and debate

74 persons = 135 litres = 3 months= 90 days8.22 persons per day2.74 per 8 hours74 people per dayAverage: 3 people/hour

1 person every 20 minutes

1person=60 kg3kg/minute

3,333 people= 1days = 1.5 litres1,111 people per 8 hours3,333 people per 24 hoursAverage:138 people/hour

46 persons per 20 minutes

78 kg /minute

Water droning

Water truckingDeliver quickly a great

quantity of water for acheap price but it is notworking during a flood

Do not deliver a lot of waterbut can deliver during worstweather conditions

Obstacle 2:Good with volumesof activity e.g..intersting pointBut no deliveryDuring a severe flood

Obstacle 1:The risk is it cando it during a floodBut is it worth investingin this project taking intoaccount is lowVolume of delivery

Theory of fresh water supply productivity during flood

(Time: in 20 minutes)

In 2 people unit

XX

X

XXXXXX

X

Water deliveryfrom a drone

X

Water deliveryBy a truck

Emergency Response Productivity Curve

DeliverVolume

but flooddisabled

Love floodsbut deliver

little

20 minutes

1 peopleSlope: 1 person/20’

Slope 46 persons/20’

46

(1hour=60’)

X

Trucking: 138 p./hDroning: 3 p./h

46 p.

1 p.

Water trucking

Water droning

?

Issues:Which alternative is the best?How to find it ?

20 minute units1p: 1 person

Balancing act between water trucking and water droning

Lessons learnt from the Productivity analysisI-Productivity analysis

Competitors of 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier drops from aircrafts to supply fresh water i.e. tap water, water trucking have a comparative advantage outside the flood zone due to the discounted prices of the litre of water: =>tap water: US 0.56 cts/litre, =>water trucking: US 0.86 cts/litre, =>water purifier: US 7.69 cts =>and bottled water: US 38.45 cts/litre.=>harvesting water : cost of infrastructures to protect water

But during a flood experience supplying fresh water with taps and trucks are cancelled and bottled waters are remaining too expensive. --It is sending mixte signal for an air drop delivery insteadof doing nothing or lately (or plastic bottled waters)--

The only alternative is water droning still cheaper than bottled water (I suppose if it has not been used yet it because it is innovative and the humanitarian aspects of drone are still under R & D and the littleGain, also.

To reverse the charge on water droning would be to consider, it is a health plan (and not a pure business or add more Corporate Social Responsibility)—these are valid reasons.

Physically, the water rescue is either no alternatives or the 2 oz pocket water purifier drops from aircrafts to supply safe water. Drones can flight during a hurricane.

Equipment total costs (Tc) : Fixed costs (Fc)* +Variable costs (Vc)

Platform

Civilian flood zone Protective Area

Base

2oz Pocket Water Purifier

Water supplysystem

Vectors:droneswith

launchers-on a soil-on a boat-on a truck

Supports

Shoppingonly

Variablecosts

Cost distinctions

Remark 1: (*) As long as the number N (the number of 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier) is not execessive and Do not necessite an additional base to drop the excess of 2 oz Pocket Water Purifiers, the base and all infrastructures are consider as fixed costs for and during the incurred emergency mission. These costs incurred mainly during the preparedness and are related again to infrastructures, vectors and personal in salaries. The only parameter, which varied is the number of flood water sufferer equals to n (n is also equalled to N: assumption one water purifier per household

The flood disaster database with number of household members and total population in the flood zone or density population in the inundated area is relevant to know the exact absolute value of water purifier to be dropped, plus an additional security number in order to reach a saturation capability e.g. all flood sufferers should be able to have access to one water purifier or more – specifically, the children and women--

Cost distinctions and relevant costs

Remark2: I think it is not necessary to assess them accurately now for the purpose of the Project. At this stage a rough guide should be to consider water droning fixed cost lower than water trucking fixed costs (Assumption on fixed costs (Fc))

Anyway, there is no alternative to failure of water trucking during a flood except than airdrop survival means and also the fact that a permanent platform in the assisted country seems cheaper than a truck or car carrying the drone launcher and equipment, at large it should not exceed the cost of a truck (in the case the drone launcher is carried by a vehicle).

The drone launcher is preferable to be mobile – carried with vectors like a truck or a boat– as the likelyhood of flood can

be difficult to detect in place and time. The car carrying the drone launcher goed beyond the mobility that is attached

To the flood uncertainty (analogy with flood fighters or firefigters of the local fire station.

Also, the cost of a unique item that serves once is relevant to the 1rst project operation and do not incurred

Later in any new development for future emergency even if the same item is used. Once paid, they are paid once.

Assumption: n*=1000, Cost of 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier= $10, => Revenues = $10,000

$10

$2

$6

$2Raw materials

Manpower

Profit

Fixed

Costs (**)

(*) n: number of people likelyto suffer of fresh water supply shortage due to flood

**Variable cost related to (n): the number of people at risk of flood. For a water purifier unit: Manpower and raw material are fixed. If (n) starts to increase importantly the cost of the water purifier remains the same

The « false » break-even curve for the emergency

Fixedcosts

N: water purifier unitsBEP=0 ****

N Sale unit= N x var cost per unit + Fixed costN= Fc/[sale unit – vc]

Fc

(Revenues(5*))

N=n=1000***K= unit price

Sales=kN +FcSales=10 n +Fc

(***) Assumption 1 individual per household n=N(****In the emergency situation,the break-even point, BEP = 0

$

(5*): Here, I have supposed that the only variable is the number of persons (n=N). The revenues earned from the emergency situation is in fact a cost to the community. What is the reason for profit? $2

Vc (N)

Few considerations on the break-even points

In principle, the real emergency

should be able to deliver water, as soon as it has 1 customer, BEP =1, continuous variable: 0-1.

The revenue equation is a strait line – only function of the number of flood sufferers – this value indeed indicates that

the gap between profit and loss can be small and even smallerif (n): the number of people at risk of flood is small.

Is it worth investing?

Importance of the database and reporting to assess exactly the flood context and exact numbers of flood sufferers. Roles of household MIS, mobile phone, internet, flood detectors and the RFID transmittance,…for the real time flood event capturesForecasting and rapid response units of water purifier drops from small aircrafts.

Few considerations from the cost analysis

Remarks: Some humanitarian actions are not validatedbecause of these small numbers. Database

starts with an important number of sufferers.It is important to reorganize world databasesand improve the captures of data to describe

exactly what happens during a flood in details: quality and quantity and not approximatetly.

Also, the hydrology service should be autonomousfrom the weather service.

The break-even curve: the real one

Fixed cost

Total cost curve

Variable cost

Revenue curve

Volume of activity

$

0

B.E.P.

b

Loss zone Profit zone

Break even point

Here, BEP (b) is different than zero because of the relevant costs to get the revenue.

I had opted firstly to temove them (the false break-even curve) for the debate as normally drones and water purifiers are considered to be sustainable alternatives and if infrastructures are to be built, in principle their small sizes reduce cost of investment. But is it worth investing for a profit –outside the humanitarian action ?

One difference would remain in the operating costs: raw materials and labors. As the project develop the use of local materials and resources would be a priority.

Also, in the case of drone launchers attached on a truck to give more mobility to the emergency rescue through this means – the flood occurence carries uncertaintie--, it is ultimately a real challenge to compare water droning based truck with water trucking and the winner.

Both systems are vectors by trucks and the only parameters to differentiate the quality of alternatives would be (H-h) the water elevation over the truck water tolerance to flood elevation (h) and/or n: the number of people at risk and a reasonable capacity e.g. not enough building that would be worthinvesting into a drone project for the purpose of the humanitarian action --n also equals N: number of water purifiers. In this case the drone could be implemented with a basic base of assets (infrastructures)With the use of local resources and materials –to reduce costs even more.

Distinction between Break Even Curves

The difference with the false curve is that I have considered only the purchase of 2 oz pocket water purifier was a relevant cost. Other costs like the preparedness: capacity building,

acces base negotiation deals, costs of infrastructures: platforms, the network, the drone purchase occured once and are reused during several emergencies (Projects). Therefore there are just relevant once and not for future Flood event assistnce projects in the same country.. The BEP Occurs as soon as there is a flood and there is no minimum requirement for household numbers. If 1 person is requiring for help: BEP=0 a volume of activity for which Total cost equals total revenue. In fact this is fictious as the first profit is $2

Which is the profit revenue, which is in the 1rts water purifier sold (False break even curve).

The real Break Even Curve considers various approximations: the cost of staffs, costs of contengcies, fuels….small costs. In this case the BEP is different that the « 0 » value

All these approximations could be received in kind by assisted countries. In that case the False Break Even curve would be with an apparent simplicity linked with the fact that Total cost would be equals to revenue if $2 profit on each 2 oz pocket water purifier is reused for: training, flood development, other contingencies or miscellineous.

This is by definition what makes the difference between a NGO and Non for profit organizations and a multinational.

Today, with the introduction of the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), global firms have an awarness about their responsibilities toward the communities they are serving.

$2Raw materials

N= numbers of product deliver

$2 (N)Variable cost

$2

$6 Labour$6 (N)

Fixed cost

Profit?

Water supply serviceContingenciesRisks DevelopmentTraining

Costs and profit analysis

Proportions for various beneficiaries

2 oz Pocket Water Purifier Cost Pie Chart

17%

50%

33%

Raw Materials

Labour

Profit

Water trucking high profilewith various reserves

Water trucking break even points and load factorsHigh profile when H<h, because of the Volume of Activity dealt during the water rescue 46 persons/20’. The price of water is low –US 0.86 cts (excluding transport, oil, maintenance, driver salaries…).

So benefits come from the volume, but bying a truck, paying for the drivers and transporting water from long distances in perillous countries can peak up costs easily. At the end, there are no benefit and the revenues are low (and operations risky). Is it worth investing in water tucking with all the volume advantages, but also with adversitie?-High number of people at risk for emergency starts –in the database dealing with number of households-The flood elevation: H<h (can the truck deliver during the flood) -The distance to carry the water from sources to the flood zone-The use of oil or diesel as propelant is not sustainable-Costs of maintenance, new trucks, driver wages…-Risks:looting the truck, killing the rescuers, wheather conditions

-Conclusion: Prices can escalate and prevent the rescuer to help.

-One Positive point for water trucking (sus the volume)-The International community knows the return of such Humanitarian action (return on investment, ROI) And there is no surprise when the flood is low (H<h), there is a real benefit because of the volume 10,000 water litres for 3,333.33 people in one day or 74 people for 3 months

Water droning low profile butcan deliver in worst conditions. Why ?

Condition 1: water trucking disability (as indicator) H (Flood water elevation) - h (elevation of the truck)>0 -assumption for the truck: value for h=50cm (small trucks) to 1 m (high elevated trucks) => H > 0.5 to 1m (flood elevation) . H – h >0 water droning can go (indicator 1)

Condition 2: water droning to be equivalent to water trucking during a flood should be able to deliver for 74 persons X 135 litres of water for 3 months. (which is equivalentof 1 truck per day with capacity of 10000 litres.) Note: if the truck was enabling during the flood, such volume of water per truck would allow 3,333.33 people to drink 1.5 liter of water per day. Water trucking is a volume activity, if working.

Condition 3: is it worth investing in such Water droning project. How much it would cost In infrastructure to implement. From now I have the Feeling that water droning should be reserved to special types of flood (with risk adverse communities,Communities with a good habitat –senior houses that do not crumble with the flood).

Condition 4 (last) as establishing water droning On a permanent basis and an additional alternative to Water trucking outside important flood conditions, When H-h<0 need to makes some more break even Analysis regarding, investment, margin and security

Lesson learnt from the Risk analysis

Water droningWater trucking

$

How to make it really profitableIceberg investmentcost of infrastructuresare unseen still notImportant and it makes waterDroning an efficient sustainableAlternative to water trucking andOthers (explanation see following slides)

Low break-evenBEP =0-1

High break even

Load factor

Load factor

Costs thancan be invisibleor reduce to a strictminimum

Profitis a multipleof n: people

BEP level

revenues

Profit

BEP

High break-evenPoint, it should not be profitablebut truck are carrying volumeof activities, thereforea high return on the operation

2 differentStrategies?

Low break evenIt should be profitableIf there is a high numberOf people at risk and waterTrucking is disabled

Flood ?

n

H-h

ChoiceBalance Equation

Lessons learnt from the Break-even analysis (1)

II-Break Even (Curve) analysis

The delivery of safe water from an aircraft is not a risky experience.

It is not a risky experience at condition to have a small load factor, which is the case with minimalistical infrastructure scenario assumptions.

Tiny load factors can be significant in achieving the mission success by reducing the total cost for initial investment AND balancing water droning for small size communities.

In theory, profit –the small earning- would be achieved by housholds numbers willing to use the service for their water needs. If numbers drop to 0. No profit is made and the company incurred no cost as long we stay within the above condition.

Lessons learnt from the Break-even analysis (2)The delivery of safe water from an aircraft is a risky experience. 2 extremes:

a)Lots of investment for a small community:

The preparadness investment and fixed costs attached to drone launchers (base, truck, boat..) can be

permanent (highest risky assumption in the case of small commmunities is not the favoured solution).

Explorations of various avenues:

-Way to think about flood rescues by analogy with the firefighter brigade station in a civilian flood community

Service –volunteering more or less paid contributions ?

-Flood rescue relying entirely on private firms (and not international assistance) where the profit is not

Garanteed. What will be these Private frm structures ?

-Mix of hybrid organizations best suiting the community in flood prone zones (target of flood uncertainties).

A real match between flood uncertainties and catering a flood answer –in the instant emergency.

-New roles of NGOs, less governmental dependant and more privately orientate –with more or less

government participation –a kind of flood democracy. Note: it is different that the consensus building at inter

governmental level to bring the flood assistance to communities?

Lessons learnt from the Break-even analysis (3)

b) Is it worth investing for a larger community where flood occurrences are well

studied ?

In this case, solutions have been brought by national governments in charge of the civilian protection in

terms of disaster planning, the studies of the disasters and preventing mitigating the

occurence, educating people, insurance policies, flood engineering works, people

re-location, building flood architectures, hedge funding, also and etc. – All these precautionary measures belongs to the framework of the flood adaptation and mitigations of the UN Integrated Water/Flood Resource-IWRM/IFM) management policies and tools.

Considering the case, one wonder how responsive can be the flood community to such package of deals and

how peacemeal, it is still remaining ? Is it the role of the System Environmental Economical Accounting to

Answer –SEEA- ?

Lessons learnt from the Break-even analysis (4)

New exploration and how to answer?

Water droning choice compare to other alternatives –if existing.

-I suspect obstacles can be cheaper than the investment for trucks and/or other alternatives ). Also,

NPV /rate of return for the project may not reach investor hurdle rate (of returns) but still, if the flood

does not materialize these investment may not be lost and may not be difficult to bail out (Even if low).

-After all, these ivestment are not so heavy: a drone cost $30 and a Pocket water purifier $10. Is it worth

taking risk for a very little return (a part from taking risk to save people)? This answer is in the

Humanitarian action, the faifth the world in one, the trust in the community of destiny, the environmental

pressure of globalization-

Would this had happened if the today globalization did not existed? I think, this question leaves a room

for another debating about past courses of human history –energy history, migration history, reasons for

Wars, technological choices, humans resitance to stress…and their goodness?

Lessons learnt from the Break-even analysis (5)The only reasons to be engaged in a water droning system would be :

the change in heart of organization for flood sufferers,

Development of broadband technologies in mission organization (but not leaving room for cahotic

networks. A bit of coordination would be an added value, thus avoiding the formal/paper organization

with conflicting rules and a hierarchical/functional organization to cut costs –but is it really cutting cost

when salvation army of flood forecaster and forecast at the scale of the world, always need more

spending for materials and people. –How to insure that there is a goog coordination? Perhaps, the

equilibrium is a « de facto » balancing act due to the reality. Is it good to just let it running to pave

a way for flood sufferers. Tough job, also in:

improving the legislations,

flood civilians themselves like the idea of pocket water purifier drops from drone

instead of drinking contaminated water,

gouvernment themselves take in charge humanitarian drone projects,

interesting parties could be also philantropic organizations, and bankers for poor people.

Another way to lever the water droning is to reduce costs of infrastructures, increase the CSR in global

firms and also create a flood civilian society that go beyond what is doing firebrigade station or

intergovernmental organization. Like improvment of the democracy and governance.

Sales 10 10

People 6 6

Raw materials

2 2

Fixed costs 0 0