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HDI trends. Poverty headcount ( based on national poverty line; not $1/day ). Actual. Required. 13%. Under-five mortality rate. 47. U5MR trends 1990-2006. 1990: All: 76 / Pak: 130 2006: All: 55 / Pak: 97. U5MR in 06. n=190. U5MR in 1990. U5MR by quintile. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • HDI trends

  • Poverty headcount(based on national poverty line; not $1/day)13%ActualRequired

  • Under-five mortality rate47

  • U5MR trends 1990-2006n=190U5MR in 1990U5MRin 061990: All: 76 / Pak: 1302006: All: 55 / Pak: 97

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    Sept 18th NEW progress class

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    Sept 18th NEW progress class

  • U5MR by quintile

  • Net primary enrollment ratio100%

  • DHS 2006/07: highlightsAlmost 1 in 10 children die before age 5; little changed since 200039% of deliveries by a health professionalSupplementation of breast milk starts earlyProportion of children fully immunized 47% in 2006; down from 53% in 200144% of ever-married women have heard of AIDSContraceptive prevalence rate plateau-ed at 30%Total fertility rate high at 4.1 population dividend

  • Pakistan: selected indicators by maternal educationAvg=39%Avg=47%Avg=44%

  • Next Asian Tiger or failed state?Serious economic turbulence aheadUnsustainable deficits trade, budget, energy, waterUnder-investment in basic servicesRecent growth spurt is ending; led to bubbles in real estate, KSE, consumer demandGrowth without development limited structural change & little trickle-down Polarized society many dimensions

  • Democratic or autocratic ?Sickly democracy in Asia: 2006 saw military coups in Thailand & Fiji; 2007 saw non-elected caretaker gov. in Bangladesh & state of emergency in PakistanEIU rank of 27 Asian countries (2007): 16 flawed democracies; 10 authoritarian; 1 full democracyDemocratic practice within political parties is poor. Dynastic parties are symptom thereofDemocracy in Pakistan will continue to wobble muddling throughSpace needed to make it home-grown