HDI trends Poverty headcount ( based on national poverty line; not $1/day ) 13% Actual Required.
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Transcript of HDI trends Poverty headcount ( based on national poverty line; not $1/day ) 13% Actual Required.
HDI trends
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Norway Indonesia Pakistan Niger
26%
34%
24%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Poverty headcount(based on national poverty line; not $1/day)
13%
Actual
Required
140
105100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Under-five mortality rate
47
U5MR trends 1990-2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
n=190
U5MR in 1990
U5MR
in
06
1990: All: 76 / Pak: 1302006: All: 55 / Pak: 97
U5MR by quintile
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Pakistan 1990 Bangladesh 2004 India 1998
Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top
46% 42%52%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Net primary enrollment ratio
100%
DHS 2006/07: highlights• Almost 1 in 10 children die before age 5;
little changed since 2000• 39% of deliveries by a health professional
• Supplementation of breast milk starts early
• Proportion of children fully immunized 47% in 2006; down from 53% in 2001
• 44% of ever-married women have heard of AIDS
• Contraceptive prevalence rate plateau-ed at 30%
• Total fertility rate high at 4.1 – ‘population dividend’
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Delivery w/ healthprofessional
Children 1-2 years oldfully vaccinated
Married women whoheard of AIDS
None Primary Middle Secondary Higher
Pakistan: selected indicators by maternal education
Avg=39%
Avg=47%
Avg=44%
Next Asian Tiger or failed state?• Serious economic turbulence ahead
• Unsustainable deficits – trade, budget, energy, water
• Under-investment in basic services
• Recent growth spurt is ending; led to bubbles in real estate, KSE, consumer demand
• ‘Growth without development’ – limited structural change & little trickle-down
• Polarized society – many dimensions
Democratic or autocratic ?• Sickly democracy in Asia: 2006 saw military
coups in Thailand & Fiji; 2007 saw non-elected caretaker gov. in Bangladesh & state of emergency in Pakistan
• EIU rank of 27 Asian countries (2007): 16 ‘flawed democracies’; 10 ‘authoritarian’; 1 ‘full democracy’
• Democratic practice within political parties is poor. Dynastic parties are symptom thereof
• Democracy in Pakistan will continue to wobble – ‘muddling through’
• Space needed to make it ‘home-grown’
