Hazards Risks Disasters 1
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Hazards, Risks and Disasters I
David Alexander University College London
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• Theoretical basis
• Organisation of the field
• Emergency planning and management
• Information, perception and education
• Conclusion: challenges for the future.
Plan of this two-part lesson:-
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A basis of theory
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Resilie
nce
Synonyms and approximations
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Some characteristics of large emergencies
• the context of risk and vulnerability
can transform an incident into a disaster.
• 10% require a qualitative change
in management techniques
• 90% of emergencies do not
require special procedures
• events that cannot be managed
with normal resources
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Catastrophe
Disaster
Major incident
Incident
...but there are no quantitative definitions...
International
National
Regional
Municipal
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Partly after Tierney (2008) Incidents
Major incidents
Disasters Catastrophes
Impact Very
localised Generally localised
Widespread and severe
Extremely large
Response Local
efforts Some mutual assistance
Inter- governmental
response
Major international
response
Plans and procedures
Standard operating
procedures
Emergency plans
activated
Emergency plans fully activated
Plans potentially
overwhelmed
Resources Local
resources Some outside
assistance
Interregional transfer of resources
Local resources
overwhelmed
Public involvement
Very little involvement
Mainly not involved
Public very involved
Extensively involved
Recovery Very few challenges
Few challenges
Major challenges
Massive challenges
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Emergency planning and organisation of security systems
Warning and preparations;
damage prevention measures
Emergency action and damage
limitation measures
Restoration of basic services
Safety and security measures
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Time
Resp
onse
Emergency isolation phase
Major incident declared
Consolidation phase
Recovery phase
Investigation
Stand-down
Funerals Debriefings
Anniversaries Plan revision
Inquests Public enquiries
Trials Awards
Memorials Training
Court cases
Anatomy of a major incident
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Hazard monitoring & forecasting
Population (community) protection
Disaster management
Major incident
management
Incident management
Policies Plans Procedures Protocols
Human & material resources
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Disaster risk reduction
Incident management
Population (community) protection
Plans, procedures, protocols
Human and material resources
Hazard forecasting, monitoring,
etc.
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Organisation Resources
Self-organisation
Imposed organisation
Volunteerism
Community disaster planning
Laws, protocols, directives
Standards, norms, guidelines
Community resources
Governmental resources
Donations
International resources
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Volontary sector:
support and integration
Private sector:
integration
Disaster
Municipality or other local authority: emergency operations
Province, region, state, county: co-ordination, assistance
Nation: policies of compatibility, harmonisation
and co-ordination
International: exchange and support
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Harmonisation from above (national or regional levels)
Organisation and growth from below (local level: municipalities, volunteers, etc.)
Central control
Devolution
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Local incident Local response A
Threshold of local capacity
Small regional
incident Co-ordinated local response B
Threshold of intermunicipal capacity
Major regional
incident
Intermunicipal and
regional response B
Threshold of regional capacity
National disaster
Intermunicipal, regional
and national response C
Threshold of national capacity
International
catastrophe
Ditto, with more
international assistance C
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Devolution Centrism
Nation state
Municipality
Civil protection Civil defence
Nation state
Municipality
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Global Supernational National
National
Regional
Local
Disaster relief as a barter market for resources
DONATE
REQUEST
ALLOCATE
DEMAND
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The natural tendency from above subordinate control repress restrict
The less than natural tendency from above
harmonise negotiate
support accommodate
act autonomously empower enable liberate The natural tendency from below
conform cede
comply submit
The less than natural tendency from below
The pressures of devolution and centrism
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Organisational systems: management
Social systems: behaviour
Natural systems: function
Technical systems:
malfunction
Vulnerability Hazard
Resilienc
e
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Lesson: There are functional differences between the responses
to each level of incident or disaster.
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Civil Protection and Civil Defence
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Emergency preparedness has reached a crossroads....
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A new class
of disaster?
Forms of disaster
Natural: earthquakes,
floods, landslides, etc.
Social: riots, mass gatherings,
demonstrations
Intentional: acts of
terrorism
Technological: toxic spills,
transportation crashes, etc.
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"Homeland security"
"Civil contingencies" management
Business continuity
management Complex emergencies
Civil protection
The security industry
Emergencies and disasters
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Homeland security:
is reduction in civil liberties
acceptable?
What relationship of business continuity
management with civil
authorities?
Complex emergencies: How much aid from donor countries?
Civil protection: what degree of political support?
What role for the security industry in the general emergency?
What are the limits of civil contingencies management?
Emergencies and disasters
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Natural
disasters
Techno-
logical
disasters
Social
disasters
Inten-
tional
disasters
Natural Anthropogenic
Civil
defence
Civil contingencies
and Resilience
Civil
protection
"Homeland
Security"
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Civil Defence Civil Protection
Instability threats
Enhanced natural hazards
Complex hazards
Natural hazards
Evolving strategic situation
Large technological
hazards
Evolving climate change
'Na-tech' (hybrid) hazards
Major geophysical
events
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Armed aggression on the part of states
Civil defence
Natural disasters
Civil protection
"Homeland security" (civil defence) Armed aggression on the part of
groups of dissidents
"Generic" disasters
"Civil contingencies" (resilience)
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Paramilitary forces (National Guard)
Military forces
Police forces
Fire brigades
Public administrations
Civilian volunteer forces
PMF
MF
FB PA
CVF
PF
Italy
PMF
MF
FB PA
CVF
PF
UK
CVF
PMF
MF
FB PA
PF
USA
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Locus of control
Locus of collaboration
(support)
Tension of opposites
Command function principle
Support function principle
Spectrum of alternatives
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Locus of control
Locus of collaboration
(support)
Directed.......Ungovernable
Control.......Loss of control
Order..................Chaos
Initiative.......Obey orders
Collaboration.."Freelancing"
Autonomy.........Constraint
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Military Civilian Armed Civil administration forces Volunteers (civil society) Emergency services (army) [residual role] Civil defence Civil protection Command and control Co-ordination and co-operation Chain of command Autonomy
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Emergency management: an evolutionary approach
Proxy Participatory
Civil defence...............Civil protection
Command and control Vertical chain of command Population excluded Law and order Secrecy
Collaboration Task forces
Population consulted and included
Problem solving Openness
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Humanitarian assistance
Domestic disaster relief
Domestic civil institutions: • local • regional • national
Foreign civil institutions: • local • regional • national
International organisations and NGOs: UN, IFRC, etc.
Military aid to civil authorities and communities
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Broader scope and outcomes
Changing objectives of emergency management
Civil Protection
Disaster Management
Resilience
Civil Contingencies Management
Disaster Risk Reduction
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Scientists
Hazard
Evaluation
Administrators
Risk communication
Decision to warn
General Public
Warning
Protective action
The warning process
Organisational Social Technical
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Lesson: There are functional differences between the responses
to each level of incident or disaster.
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Counter-Terrorism
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• the age of CBRN?
• civil protection with a more restricted scope?
• emergency planning dominated by counter-terrorism preparations
• the resurgence of civil defence
• secrecy: "the public does not need to know".
Homeland security
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• Terrorism is a form of teleological disaster (i.e. piloted)
• it is potentially infinitely mutable
• designing remedies is a very expensive process
• the scenarios are highly debatable.
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Aum Shinrikyo (the "Religion of Supreme Truth")
20 March 1995 attack on five Tokyo metro trains:- • 5,510 people affected • 278 hospitals involved
• 98 of them admitted 1,046 inpatients • 688 patients transported by ambulance • 4,812 made their own way to hospital.
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Dead: 12 Critically injured: 17 Seriously ill: 37 Moderately ill: 984 Slightly ill: 332
• 110 hospital staff and 10% of first responders intoxicated
• "Worried well": 4,112 (85% of patients).
Aum Shinrikyo attack (1995)
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• a small, concentrated attack with a highly toxic substance: 210Po
• 30 localities contaminated
• tests on hundreds of people
• a strain on many different agencies
• problems of determining who was responsible for costs of clean-up.
The case of Alexander Litvinenko
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'Hot' area (contaminated)
'Warm' area (decontamination)
'Cold' area (clean treatment) >300 m upwind
PPE level A (contaminant unknown)
PPE level B (contaminant known)
PPE level D
Medical staff and
first responders
PPE level C
PPE=personal protection equipment
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The principal effect of terrorism on the
general public could be, not any direct involvement of people in an incident, but the disruption of
normal daily life...
...with huge costs to society.
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Laboratory error with
CBR emissions
Sabotage with poisonous agent
Nuclear emission (NR)
Disease epidemic or pandemic (B)
Terrorist attack with C, B, R or N contaminants
Industrial or military accident with CNR emissions
Chemical, biological
or nuclear warfare (CBN)
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Industrial accident
Medical accident
Nuclear accident
Epiphytotic (food chain)
Epizootic (food chain)
People (victims)
CBRN attack
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Organisation • procedures • event scenarios • emergency plans
Intelligence • collection • interpretation • warning
Training • plan dissemination • exercises
Stockpiling • equipment • supplies
Surveillance • automatic (CCTV) • manual (personnel)
Analysis • laboratory • forensic
Counter-terrorism activity
Involvement of civil protection
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Lesson: counter-terrorism activities have had a profound impact on the organisation
of other forms of disaster response.
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Planning
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Emergency environment
Emergency procedures
Emergency co-ordination
plan Spontaneous
imnprovisation
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Results Operations
Procedures
Plans
Policies
Command systems • operations centres • task forces • communications • chains of command
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Division and
integration
Hierarchical divisions
National, regional, local, etc.
Geographical divisions
Catchments, jurisdictions, areas, etc. Organisational
divisions
Police, Ambulance, Fire, etc.
Functional divisions
Government, healthcare,
commerce, etc.
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Incident
Contingency planning in the pre-emergency phase (days)
Emergency response planning
Permanent emergency plan
Operational planning
Short-term strategic planning (hours → days)
Short-term tactical planning (hours)
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Recovery and reconstruction
planning
Strategic, tactical & operational planning
Aftermath
Disaster
Monitoring prediction & warning
Permanent emergency plan
Business continuity plan
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NATIONAL EMERGENCY PLAN
REGIONAL AND COUNTY OR PROVINCIAL EMERGENCY
PLANS
MUNICIPAL EMERGENCY
PLAN
MUTUAL ASSISTANCE
PACTS
AIRPORT AND TRANSPORT EMERGENCY
PLANS
HOSPITAL AND HEALTH
SYSTEM EMERGENCY
PLAN
INDUSTRIAL AND
COMMERCIAL EMERGENCY
PLANS
CULTURAL HERITAGE EMERGENCY
PLAN
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Disaster
in the medical
centre
Disaster
in the system
of medical
centres
Disaster
in the external
environment
Disaster
planning for
the medical
centre
Disaster
planning
for the system
of medical
centres
Disaster
planning for
the external
environment
Co-ordinated
EMS Disaster
plans
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Planning • scenarios • risk analysis • emergency plans • protocols
Organisation • comand structure • task forces • operations centres • communications
Preparation • education & training • exercises • plan dissemination • revision of plans
Resources • materials • vehicles, equipment • communications • manpower
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Lesson: planning for emergencies and crises should be a continuous process, not an end.
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David Alexander [email protected]
emergency-planning.blogspot.com www.slideshare.net/dealexander
Thank you for your attention!