Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and...

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Hazard Mitigation Planning

Transcript of Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and...

Page 1: Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate.

Hazard Mitigation Planning

Page 2: Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate.

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Workshop Objectives

• Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate hazard mitigation actions

• Review the basics of preparing multi-jurisdiction plans

• Integrate plan update requirements into the mitigation plan

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OverviewOverview: Hazard Mitigation Planning

Section 1Section 1: Risk Assessment

Section 2Section 2: Multi-jurisdiction Plans

Section 3Section 3: Plan Updates

• Each section of the Risk Assessment section will include citation to the corresponding CFR requirement

Workshop Structure

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What is Hazard Mitigation Planning?What is Hazard Mitigation Planning?

The effort to reduce loss of life and property by lessening the impact of disasters

How?How?

• Through risk-based analysis providing a foundation for mitigation activities to reduce damages to lives, property, and economy

• Creates a framework for risk-based decision making to reduce damages

Hazard Mitigation Planning

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• Break the cycle of disaster damage, reconstruction, and reoccurring damage

Hazard Mitigation Planning

ReconstructionReconstructionReoccurring Reoccurring DamagesDamages

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Mitigation Actions

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Reduces:

•Loss of life

•Damage to property, essential services, and critical facilities

•Economic disruption

•Short-term and long-term recovery and reconstruction costs

Why is Hazard Mitigation Important?

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Why is Hazard Mitigation Planning Important?

•Building more disaster resistant communities

•Raising awareness of risk and the need for risk reduction

•Creating a roadmap for coordinating hazard mitigation efforts

•Partnerships in the jurisdiction

• Increased communication and cross-education between jurisdiction agencies

•Eligibility for pre- and post-disaster grant funds

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Hazard Mitigation Plan Development Process

Step 1: Organizing Resources

Step 2: Assessing Risks

Step 3: Developing the Plan

Step 4: Reviewing the Plan

Step 5: Implementing the Plan

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Step 1: Organizing Resources

• Build the Planning Team

• Organize the Planning Team

• Hold Project Planning Meeting

• Consider Hiring a Consultant

• Engage the Public Benefits of Public Participation Document Public Involvement

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Step 2: Assessing RisksIdentify allall hazards that could occur and impact any portion of the planning area.

•First resource is the State Hazard Mitigation Plan

•Remember that just because a hazard has not occurred in the planning area in the recent past does not mean that it will not occur in the future (Dam or levee failure)

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Step 3: Developing the PlanUse risk assessment results risk assessment results to create a blueprint for reducing potential losses.

• Describe mitigation goals• Identify all possible actions and projects that would

prevent or reduce damage and/or protect citizens• Analyze possible actions and projects• Determine what is feasible• Prioritize actions• Document process and criteria for prioritization• Identify who initiates, administers, and implements

mitigation actions

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Step 4: Reviewing the PlanPlans should be monitoredmonitored and evaluatedevaluated according to the process outlined in the plan

•The hazard mitigation plan should be reviewed after major events and response to changes within the community.

•Plans mustmust be updated every 5 years or the jurisdiction becomes ineligible for a number of FEMA grants (i.e., HMGP, PDM, FMA, and SRL)

•Include steps for incorporating the plan into capital improvement plans, land use plans, development codes, etc.

•Invite the public and other agencies invited to participate in the plan maintenance process

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Step 5: Implementing the Plan

• Implementation of specific mitigation actions

• Conduct periodic evaluations

• Adopt the Plan

Plan must be relevant

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Section 1: Risk AssessmentRisk assessment provides the foundation for the rest of the mitigation planning process.

•The purpose of the risk assessment is for jurisdictions to gather existing risk information that enables them to identify and assign value to risk in order to prioritize mitigation actions and appropriate resources to reduce losses from all natural hazards.

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•Hazard: source of potential danger or adverse condition

•Hazard Identification: process of determining those hazards that threaten a given area

•Impact: damage or consequences resulting from a hazard

•Exposure: the number/value of all structures and other land, assets, etc that could potentially be impacted by a given hazard, typically based on geographic location

Risk Assessment Terminology

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•Extent: severity, intensity or magnitude of a hazard itself

•Probability: measure of how often an event is likely to occur

•Risk: potential for an unwanted outcome resulting from an event or occurrence, as determined by its likelihood and the associated consequences

•Vulnerability: the number/value of structures/built environment and other assets, etc. that are identified as most likely to sustain damage or loss of use from a given hazard.

Risk Assessment Terminology

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Risk Assessment

Three basic components of risk assessment:

1.Identify Hazards

2.Profile Hazard Events

3.Estimate Losses

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Identifying Hazards - CFRCFR §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the type … of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction.

Does the plan include a description of all natural hazards that affect any of the participating jurisdictions?

Suggestions

• Think about hazards that may have significant impacts but that occur infrequently

• Consult the State Mitigation Plan and/or with the State Hazard Mitigation Officer to identify hazards that may occur in the planning area.

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Identifying Hazards

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Some hazards like tornadoes, the flooding caused by dam or levee failure, and wildfires are not frequent but the effects can be devastating.

Take Note!!

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Determine Hazards That May Occur Locally

• **State Hazard **State Hazard Mitigation Plan**Mitigation Plan**

• U.S. Geological Survey

• Natural Hazards Center

• National Weather Service

• Flood Insurance Studies, FIRMs

• Watershed Studies

• Association of State Dam Safety Officials

• National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration

• National Severe Storms Laboratory

• Newspapers, Books, & Internet

• National, State, & Local Maps

• Experts (State Emergency Management, Weather Service, etc.)

Possible Resources:*Possible Resources:*

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Hazards to Consider

• Severe Storms

• Tornadoes

• Flooding

• Severe Winter Storms

• Drought

• Extreme Heat

• Earthquakes

• Dam or Levee Failure

• Mine Subsidence

• Lake Michigan Storm Surge

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Identifying Hazards - Tips

• Indicate in plan narrative that state plan was consulted

• Don’t eliminate hazards simply because you don’t have information about them

• Think about those hazards that have significant impacts even if they occur infrequently.

• Think about hazards relative to community vulnerabilities.

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Identifying Hazards - Tips• Where possible

map hazards. Illustrate locations subject to flooding, landslide or subsidence and areas subject to wildfire risks.

• Cite sources, address data limitations

• Think about low probability risks

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Identifying Hazards – Human-Caused HazardsHuman-Caused Hazards (sometimes referred to as man-

made hazards) are terrorism and technological hazards

• Hard to predict and change over time

• Natural hazards may lead to human-caused hazards

• Consideration of human-caused hazards is not required by DMA 2000 While FEMA recommends including all hazards, only

natural hazards are required

• Jurisdiction can decide whether to address human-caused hazards in the plan If human-caused hazards are included in the plan, they

must be fully profiled

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Group Discussion:1. How many dams in your community? Where would

you find this information?

2. Name one Illinois city or county that has completed more than 100 acquisitions of flood prone properties? Where would you find this information for your county?

3. What are the easiest references for the history of natural hazard events in your community?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/http://webra.cas.sc.edu/hvriapps/sheldus_setup/sheldus_login.aspx

Identifying Hazards – Exercise

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Profiling Hazards - CFRCFR §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the … location and extent of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. The plan shall include information on previous occurrences of hazard events and on the probability of future hazard events.

First step after hazard identification is to determine how each hazard affects the planning area by describing:

• Location affected by the hazard• Extent of the hazard • History of hazard events• Probability of future hazard events

* Only hazards that are chosen as affecting the jurisdiction should be profiled

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Profiling Hazards - LocationIdentify the location (i.e., geographic area affected) of each natural hazard addressed in the new or updated plan.

Specifically identify those areas of the jurisdiction that each hazard might affect

How?How?

• Narratives: description of a hazard or hazardous events and their effect on the jurisdiction

• Maps: common frame of reference when describing where and how hazards can affect a jurisdiction

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Profiling Hazards - LocationNarrativesNarratives

Describing the areas at-risk for hazards is the easiest way to communicate risks to community residents.

The most significant hazards in Region V have boundaries. Special flood hazards are typically mapped.

When people attend meetings on hazard mitigation planning they want to know the boundaries of hazards relative to their own homes.

Where the boundaries of hazard risks cannot be described—snow storms, tornadoes, hail storms—there is no requirement for describing areas affected because all areas are equally affected.

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Profiling Hazards - LocationMapsMaps

• Show locations affected by each hazard—maps should include clear and accurate reference points.

• Don’t try to show too much on one map!

• Dam and levee location maps should help clarify the areas downstream that may be affected by a failure or breach.

• Where modern flood hazard maps are available, there should be an effort to incorporate these maps in the local plan.

• If flash flooding is identified as a hazard, its location should be shown on a map or with narrative

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Use a Map to Show Locations• Maps are typically the easiest way to convey information

• Begin with a base map

• Transfer data for each hazard to the base map

Create a map showing Special Flood Hazard Areas and Base Flood Elevations

Create a map showing dam and levee locations

Create a map showing areas at risk of wildfire

Create other hazard maps—landslides, earthquakes, shoreline erosion if data exists

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Boundaries vs. Planning-area wide Hazards

Remember that not all hazards have a defined hazard boundary within the planning area

• Boundaries: Hazard has definable limits• Planning-area wide: Could impact any jurisdiction

Boundaries Planning-Area Wide

Flooding Thunderstorms

Dam Failure Hail

Levee Failure Tornadoes

Wildfire Winter Storms

Shoreline Erosion

Land Subsidence/Sinkholes

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Floodplain Maps

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Flood Hazard Maps can be overlaid on aerial photographs or structure base maps to highlight those structures, roads and public buildings at risk . The map at right illustrates the areas in Alexandria County within the boundaries of the 1% flood hazard.

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Dams/Levees in Rock Island County

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Map Areas Post-Disaster3-35

Campbell’s Island, 2001

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Map the Properties At-Risk3-36

Ottawa, Ohio, August 27, 2007 – Flooding in North Central Ohio damaged several towns during the summer of 2007. Mike Moore/FEMA

Flooding in Illinois April, 2011

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Areas of Land Subsidence Risks in Saline County

37Saline County Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Profiling Hazards - ExtentIdentify the extent (i.e., magnitude or severity) of each hazard addressed in the new or updated plan.

•Extent, as used in the Mitigation Plan, describes the expected magnitude of the hazard and should not be confused with impact

•Extent can be described in both quantitative and qualitative measures of the strength of a particular hazard event including a range of the hazard’s potential severity.

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Page 39: Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate.

Profiling Hazards – Extent• Severity is typically related to the size and scale of the

hazard event. Plans should include consideration of the probability of certain size events. There may be a low probability for the most catastrophic tornadoes but a much higher probability of smaller events.

Suggestions• Use scientific scales to describe extent• For floods, say “1-percent-annual-chance flood” or

“100-year flood event”• For tornadoes, say “five EF3 events”• Do this for each jurisdiction if multi-jurisdictional plan• If it is the same for all jurisdictions, say so

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Page 40: Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate.

Profiling Hazards – Severity/Magnitude

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Profiling Hazards – Historical Events

Provide information on previous occurrences of each hazard addressed in the new or updated plan.

•List previous occurrences of each hazard for each jurisdiction

Do this separately for each hazard Must have enough history to do an accurate

assessment

•Cite information sources

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Profiling Hazards – Historical Events

Suggestions

• Communities should keep records of their own histories of hazard events. Documenting high water marks, documenting property damages and losses, and identifying unique vulnerabilities will help future planning.

Keep a record. Document the impacts of significant events.

Include sufficient historical information to create probability estimates

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Page 43: Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate.

Think Outside the Box!Additional Resources for Historical Events

• Electrical Outages due to Inclement Weather

• School Closings due to Snow/Severe Winter Weather

• Weather Related Highway Closures

• Fire Department Data• Local Emergency Management Data

• Assessor’s Data

• National Funding Applications & Grants

• Historical Society records

Explore your jurisdiction’s resources

Historical Records

Anecdotal Evidence

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Profiling Hazards - ProbabilityInclude the probability of future events (i.e., chance of occurrence) for each hazard addressed in the new or updated plan.

•Estimate the probability of future occurrences of each hazard for each jurisdiction

If history shows that one hazard typically occurs every 4 years, say the probability in any year is 25% (1/4=0.25)

If probability is the same for all jurisdictions, say this!

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Profiling Hazards - Probability• Structural improvements—dams, levees, flood walls

may reduce risks but they do not completely eliminate risks. Many dams, levees and other structural safeguards were constructed years ago and some have not been adequately maintained.

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Profiling Hazards – Probability

Suggestions

• If probability cannot be calculated statistically, quantify the probability as , , or Describe how probabilities were determined

oQuantify the categories Define terms

o If history shows no occurrences of a hazard but it is still possible, say the probability is low

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Profiling a Tornado – ProbabilityUse FEMA & NOAA Maps and Data

Who has a higher tornado probability: Illinois or Wisconsin?Who has a higher tornado probability: Illinois or Wisconsin?

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Page 48: Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate.

Profiling a Flood – Probability

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Profiling Hazards – Ranking What is ‘ranking?

• Assignment of values or numeric scores to chosen elements of each hazard, such as severity, probability of future events, and warning time. Rankings are totaled, allowing prioritization Be sure that the descriptions and data match the score! (e.g.,

don’t score high if the data says it’s low)

How is this ranking helpful?

• Ranking prioritizes hazards which helps direct the prioritization of hazard mitigation actions

• Ranking is a commonly used approach to profiling hazards.

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Suggestions

• Use criteria used in the current Illinois Hazard Mitigation Plan

• Conduct jurisdiction-specific rankings for those hazards that have defined boundaries, such as flooding

• Conduct planning area-wide ranking or hazards that can impact the entire planning area

Profiling Hazards – Ranking

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Profiling Hazards - Ranking

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Profiling Hazards: Tornado Paths

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Profiling Hazards Tips• Present information in an organized manner

By hazardoUse consistent labels for hazards

By jurisdictiono Address area-wide hazards just once, but clearly

state that such hazards affect the entire area equally Use tables

• If data are not adequate Say so Include actions to improve the quality of the data in the

mitigation strategy

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Group Discussion:

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1. What is the flood of record in the State of Illinois?

2. What is the most severe tornado event in Illinois?

3. What is the probability of the 25 year flood over a 30 year mortgage? What is the probability of the 100 year flood over a 30 year mortgage?

Profiling Hazards –Exercise

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Assessing Vulnerability - CFRCFR §201.6(c)(2)(ii): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the jurisdiction’s vulnerability to the hazards described in paragraph (c)(2)(i) of this section. This description shall include an overall summary of each hazard and its impact on the jurisdiction

After identifying and profiling hazards, the next step in the Risk Assessment process is to conduct the Vulnerability Assessment. This needs to focus on the properties uniquely at risk for specific hazards.

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Assess Vulnerability - OverviewVulnerability: the number/value of structures,

infrastructure and critical facilities that are identified as most likely to sustain damage or loss of use from a given hazard.

Exposure vs Vulnerability…for example• The entire county may be exposed to winter storms but businesses

with flat roofs are more vulnerable to damage from heavy snow.• Homes in and adjacent to the floodplain are exposed to flooding but

elevated homes are less vulnerable to damage.• Farms are more vulnerable to damage from droughts.• The elderly may be more at risk for extreme temperatures than

others.• Places of assembly—schools, churches, community centers may

have greater vulnerabilities to tornadoes than buildings with different occupancies.

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Assess Vulnerability - SummaryExposure to a hazard event occurs in three specific

situations:

1. All locations in a jurisdiction are equally exposed to a hazard Example: severe winter storms

2. Location is within a hazard boundary Example: flooding in a FEMA designated flood zone

3. Location is in a group of structures with unique locational or structural characteristics Examples: mobile home parks, water treatment or

water pumping stations, or electrical distribution lines.

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Page 58: Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate.

•Describe each jurisdiction’s vulnerability to each hazard in a summary format

•Describe the types of structures, including structures, infrastructure, critical facilities, structures housing elderly, and low- to moderate-income housing

•Determine proportion of land or structures in the jurisdiction that could be affected by each hazard

•Remember that some jurisdictions might be equally exposed to a hazard in terms of probability of getting impacted, but their vulnerability could differ greatly 

Assess Vulnerability - Overview

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Page 59: Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate.

Assess Vulnerability - SummaryThe new or updated plan must include an overall summary description of the jurisdiction’s vulnerability to each hazard.

The plan must include an overall summary description of the jurisdiction’s vulnerability to each hazard

Suggestions• Describe vulnerability ( , , or ) of

each jurisdiction to each hazard – define the terms• The summary should be supported by data presented

in the plan and correspond to the description of impact.

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Page 60: Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate.

Assess Vulnerability - Summary• Determine which assets in which participating jurisdiction

are vulnerable to damage Are critical facilities vulnerable? Are major highways vulnerable? Are emergency shelters vulnerable?

• Guidance does not require discussion of special needs populations, but it is recommended

• Explain data deficiencies and include strategies for remedying the deficiencies in the next plan update

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Assess Vulnerability - Describe the Impact of Each HazardThe new or updated plan must address the impact of each hazard on each jurisdiction.

For each hazard, and for each jurisdiction, discuss:•Types of damage •Extent of damage to

Structures Infrastructure Critical facilities Major employers Cultural, historical, environmental assets Public assembly or public meeting facilities

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Assess Vulnerability – Inventory Assets

• Critical facilities• Structures:

–Residences–Businesses–Mobile Home jurisdictions –Government Facilities–Service Industries

• Cultural, Historical Resources• Vulnerable Populations• Economic Assets• Higher risk facilities--schools,

hospitals, stadiums, assembly halls, etc..

What assets are in your jurisdiction?What assets are in your jurisdiction?

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Assess Vulnerability– Inventory Assets: Critical Facilities

• Essential facilities- Hospitals, police and fire stations, emergency

operations centers, evacuation shelters, schools• Transportation systems

- Roads, airports, railroads, waterways• Utility systems

- Potable water, wastewater, natural gas, electricity, communications systems

• High potential loss facilities- Nuclear power plants, dams, military installations

• Hazardous material facilities- Produce and/or use corrosive, flammable,

radioactive, toxic materials

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Community Assets: 3-64

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Planning Tip3-65

Inventory those community assets that may be uniquely vulnerable to specific hazards.

Hospitals Schools and CollegesRecreation CentersAssisted Living Center and Nursing Homes

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Assess Vulnerability – Describe Impact Suggestions

• Impact can be described in terms of: Dollar value of losses Percentages of damages

• Where specific information for a hazard is not available, other acceptable methods would be to:

• base your assumptions on past experiences with each hazard in the planning area, or

• base it on an event scenario that could potentially occur in the jurisdiction

• Describe level of damage to structures, infrastructure, and critical facilities anticipated for each hazard

• Describe impact of each hazard on need for evacuation, emergency service, etc.

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Assess Vulnerability – Describing Impact

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Source: FEMA 386-2 Understanding Your Risks: Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses

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CFR §201.6(c)(2)(ii): [The risk assessment] must also address National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) insured structures that have been repetitively damaged floods.

Assessing Vulnerability - CFR

Repetitive Loss Structure: An NFIP-insured structure that has had at least two paid flood losses of more than $1,000 each in any 10-year period since 1978.

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Assessing Vulnerability - Repetitive Loss Structures• Describe the amount and types of NFIP repetitive

loss structures located in identified flood hazard areas

• Do not use specific street addresses

• Include estimates of potential dollar losses to repetitive loss properties

• If a significant issue, the plan should include maps of general areas of repetitive loss properties

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Assessing Vulnerability - Repetitive Loss Structures

Many local plans provide generalized maps identifying locations of repetitive loss properties.

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CFR§201.6(c)(2)(ii)(A): The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of the types and numbers of existing and future structures, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified hazard area …

Assessing Vulnerability - CFR

• Estimate the numbers of existing and future structures, infrastructure, critical facilities located in hazard boundaries in each jurisdiction (exposure)

Identification of existing structures Identification for future structures

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Assessing Vulnerability - Identifying Structures: Future Growth Does the new or updated plan describe vulnerability in terms of the types and numbers of future structures, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified hazard areas.

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CFR §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(B): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of an] estimate of the potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures identified in paragraph (c)(2)(ii)(A) of this section and a description of the methodology used to prepare the estimate …

Assessing Vulnerability - CFR

Suggestions• Methodology of estimating potential losses should

be described in the plan Include data sourcesLoss estimation tables can be based on previous

occurrences

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Assessing Vulnerability - Estimating Potential Losses

• Develop potential losses based on past hazard events

• Define methodology used to obtain data and perform calculations

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How do you estimate potential losses?1.Develop loss estimation tables2.Record methodology for loss estimation process

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Assessing Vulnerability - Estimating Potential LossesEstimate potential dollar losses in jurisdiction(s)

Suggestions• Estimate dollar losses for structures and contents• Estimate dollar losses for each hazard in each

jurisdiction• Estimate losses for the most likely events, not

necessarily for catastrophic events or worst-case scenarios

Be sure to describe the methodology used when estimating potential losses!!!

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Assessing Vulnerability - Methodology for Estimating Potential Losses

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Assessing Vulnerability - Methodology for Estimating Potential Losses

Reference: Neosho County, KS Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan77

• Estimated dollar losses based on past losses:

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Assessing Vulnerability Knox County, Illinois HM plan used hypothetical paths and model scenarios for estimating tornado losses from an F4 tornado path.Buffers were added around the F4 tornado path line to indicate the maximum

damage expected. The GIS analysis estimates that 1,798 buildings will be damaged. The estimated building losses totaled $102 million.

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Assessing Vulnerability - Methodology for Estimating Potential Losses• The update of the Illinois state plan includes estimates of

flood losses by county based on a statewide HAZUS analysis.

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Assessing Vulnerability - Methodology for Estimating Potential Losses• Estimating losses without GIS

NCDC data contains event data including limited estimated losses for property, crops, injury and death, but may only contain information regarding County-wide hazards.

80 Reference: NCDC

Page 81: Hazard Mitigation Planning. 2 Workshop Objectives Clarify process for identifying hazards and estimating potential losses, which form the basis for appropriate.

Assessing Vulnerability - Methodology for Estimating Potential LossesUsing NCDC data to help estimate potential losses:

-how you might estimate drought losses in Butler County, IA

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Assessing Vulnerability - Methodology for Estimating Potential LossesUsing NCDC data to help estimate potential losses:

-hail loss estimates for Harrison County, MS

82 Reference: Harrison County, MS Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan

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Use Hazus to Estimate Losses

Training is available at:• Emergency Management

Institute (EMI)• ESRI (online)

• U.S. Multi-Hazards Risk Assessment Tool• FEMA product• GIS based software

To inventory assets To estimate damages from: flood, earthquake, and

hurricane winds

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Suggestions Hazus Calculations (Flood)

Assessing Vulnerability - Methodology for Estimating Potential Losses

Reference: Johnson County, IN Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan84

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Suggestions Hazus Calculations (Earthquake)

Assessing Vulnerability - Methodology for Estimating Potential Losses

Reference: Monmouth County, NJ Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan85

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CFR §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(C): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of] providing a general description of land uses and development trends within the jurisdiction so that mitigation options can be considered in future land use decisions.

Assessing Vulnerability - CFR

• How is the area expected to develop over the next 10, 20, 50 years?

• Determine potential location and types of future development

Approved or anticipatedReview land use or comprehensive planAnalyze development trendsTalk to jurisdiction officials, developers

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Assessing Vulnerability – Existing Land Use and Critical Facilities

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CFR §201.6(c)(2) (iii): For multi-jurisdictional plans, the risk assessment must assess each jurisdiction’s risks where they vary from the risks facing the entire planning area.

Assessing Vulnerability - CFR

• For each jurisdiction, identify and assess all hazards that may affect it or any part of it

• Describe exactly which jurisdictions are affected by each hazard or say that a hazard affects the entire planning area equally

Jurisdiction Flood Earthquake Winter Storms Tornado Landslide Wildfire

Winter, Town of X X X X X X

Spring Lake, City of X X X X

Windsong, Town of X X X X

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Section 1 – Risk Assessment

Any Questions??

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Section 2 - Multi-Jurisdiction Plans Multi-jurisdiction plans bring local governments together

in a cooperative effort of planning and risk management. Local governments rely on mutual aid agreements and cooperative municipal service agreements and multi-jurisdictional planning is consistent these trends.

• risk assessments for multi-jurisdictional plans should present the “big picture” for the entire county and should also include community specific risk information.

• Multi-jurisdictional plans should demonstrate that local jurisdiction worked together in formulating the plan.

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Multi-Jurisdiction Plans

• Updated multi-jurisdiction plans must include information on which cities are in the updated plan OR dropped out of the plan. Update risk assessment to add or subtract jurisdictions

and their risk information

• If risk and vulnerability are the same for Cities A, B, C…indicate this! Show differences in jurisdictions where appropriate

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Multi-Jurisdiction Plans • Identify & address each hazard that might affect all or any part

of any jurisdictions involved

• When wide variances exist between the list of hazards for different participating jurisdictions, support that variance with data explaining why a hazard impacts one planning area but not another

• If data limitations prevent a full risk assessment, explain the situation and provide strategy for obtaining the data at the next plan update in 5 years

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Section 3 - Plan Updates

Take Note!!

Remember that the Plan Update is a new document, and is not just an annex to the approved plan — it stands on its own as a

complete and current plan.

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• Explain how the previous hazard identification section was reviewed during the plan update process Specify how the new hazard identification process is

different

• Identify and explain inclusion of new hazards or deletion of previously identified hazards Review current state plan to determine if hazards

have been added since previous plan approval If no new hazards are identified, explain why

Plan Updates

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• If improved hazard descriptions are available, they should be incorporated

• Note that plan updates should explain any changes in hazard location, and provide data to support this

Plan Updates

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Plan Updates

• Describe the recent history of hazard events—how has recent experience influenced local priorities and local mitigation strategies.

• Differences between jurisdictions may mean that an event is more severe in some areas and less severe in others. If the severity of a hazard is the same for all jurisdictions, state that in the text.

• If a ranking/scoring process is used, explain any changes to the scoring process or results.

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Plan Update Process

• Review the most recent State Plan to see if new hazards have been added – consider adding these new hazards to the local plan

• Incorporate additional and updated information on hazards – for example, the historical hazard events during the 5 years between the original plan and plan update should be included in the update

• Include a current inventory of existing and proposed structures, infrastructure, and critical facilities located within identified hazard areas. Identify any new structures that have been built since the last plan update.

• The update MUST address how previously identified data limitations were addressed and incorporated – failure to address must be explained

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Plan Update ProcessVERY IMPORTANT!!

• Outline any changes brought on by mitigation projects completed or in the works

• Describe changes that have occurred in the planning area since the previously approved plan, such as the loss of a major employer, new road construction, etc.

• If the planning area was part of a recent presidentially declared disaster, SBA disaster, state disaster, etc. – include a summary of the impact of those occurrences

• Changes in NFIP status or FIRMs must be noted

• Attribute any new hazards to the appropriate jurisdiction(s) or to the planning area as a whole. If the list of hazards has not changed, this must be stated.

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Wrap Up

Questions? Comments?

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Ultimate Source: “The Blue Book”

• This Workshop, based on FEMA guidance (the Blue Book), included the following subsections:

Identifying Hazards Profiling Hazards Assessing Vulnerability: Overview Assessing Vulnerability: Identifying Structures Assessing Vulnerability: Estimating Potential

Losses Assessing Vulnerability: Analyzing Development

Trends Multi-jurisdictional Risk Assessment

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Contact Information: Ron Davis State Hazard Mitigation OfficerIllinois Emergency Management

Agency 217-782-8719

Bryan Purchis Mitigation Planner Illinois Emergency Management

Agency 217-785-9888

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Contact Information