Forest Mortality, Economics, & Climate

Linnia Hawkins1, Philip Mote2, Beverly Law3, Andrew Plantinga4, Jeffrey Hicke5, Myles Allen6 & Richard Betts7

1Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State University, Oregon, USA

2Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon, USA

3College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Oregon, USA

4Natural Resource Economics and Policy, UC Santa Barbara, California, USA

5Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Idaho, USA

6School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University, Oxford, UK

7Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

Photo by Jeff Hicke

Climate Induced Forest Mortality

Phillip J. van Mantgem et al., 2009

Allen et al., 2010

OBJECTIVES

Identify regions vulnerable to climate-induced tree mortality.

Quantify the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem services.

Investigate feedbacks among climate, forest response, and economic factors.

Identify policy and management strategies that preserve forest function.

Approach

Quantity

Price

Demand

Supply

Timber market

Climate

Dynamic Vegetation

Economics

Bark Beetle Attack

CLM 4.5 Drought & Fire

Climate RCP8.5 2040-2069 minus 1970-1999 M

iroc5

IP

SL

_C

M5

A_

MR

Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature Precipitation

Bark Beetle Model

1998 2002 2006

05

00

15

00

25

00

Cascades

Are

a w

ith m

ort

alit

y (

km

2)

1998 2002 2006

02

00

40

06

00

80

0Sierra Nevada

Are

a w

ith m

ort

alit

y (

km

2)

1998 2002 2006

02

00

40

06

00

80

0

Columbia Plateau

Are

a w

ith m

ort

alit

y (

km

2)

1998 2002 2006

05

000

15

00

02

50

00

Northern Rockies

Are

a w

ith

mo

rtalit

y (

km

2)

Observed

Predicted Single Region

95% CI

Combined Regions

1998 2002 2006

01

00

03

00

05

00

0

GYE

Are

a w

ith

mo

rtalit

y (

km

2)

1998 2002 2006

20

00

40

00

60

00

80

00

Southern Rockies

Are

a w

ith

mo

rtalit

y (

km

2)

-20 -15 -10 -5 0

-3-2

-10

12

3

Cascades

Winter T min (C)

log

-odds o

f tr

ee m

ort

alit

y

-20 -15 -10 -5 0

-3-2

-10

12

3

Sierra Nevada

Winter T min (C)lo

g-o

dds o

f tr

ee m

ort

alit

y

-20 -15 -10 -5 0

-3-2

-10

12

3

Columbia

Winter T min (C)

log

-odds o

f tr

ee m

ort

alit

y

-20 -15 -10 -5 0

-3-2

-10

12

3

Northern Rockies

Winter T min (C)

log

-odds o

f tr

ee m

ort

alit

y

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

-3-2

-10

12

3

GYE

Cold tolerance

log

-odds o

f tr

ee m

ort

alit

y

-20 -15 -10 -5 0-3

-2-1

01

23

S Rockies

Winter T min (C)

log

-odds o

f tr

ee m

ort

alit

y

1998 2002 2006

05

00

15

00

25

00

Cascades

Are

a w

ith m

ort

alit

y (

km

2)

1998 2002 2006

02

00

40

06

00

80

0

Sierra Nevada

Are

a w

ith m

ort

alit

y (

km

2)

1998 2002 2006

02

00

40

06

00

80

0

Columbia Plateau

Are

a w

ith m

ort

alit

y (

km

2)

1998 2002 2006

05

000

15

00

02

50

00

Northern Rockies

Are

a w

ith

mo

rtalit

y (

km

2)

Observed

Predicted Single Region

95% CI

Combined Regions

1998 2002 2006

01

00

03

00

05

00

0

GYE

Are

a w

ith

mo

rtalit

y (

km

2)

1998 2002 2006

20

00

40

00

60

00

80

00

Southern Rockies

Are

a w

ith

mo

rtalit

y (

km

2)

Land Surface Model CLM4.5

1. LANDFIRE: LANDFIRE 1.1.0, 30-m Mean Fire Return Interval layer. U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. [Online].

2. Threshold data, Vickers, D. et al. Tellus B, 2012; ASWC data from Mathys A. et al., Forest Ecology and Management, 2014.

Forest Cover Fire Vulnerability Drought Vulnerability

Forested area with more than 90% coverage Areas of Mean Fire Return Interval less than 40 years Areas of Available Soil Water Content < 122mm/year

Economic Model

Biomass

Growth Rate

Price point

Harvest

Dynamic Vegetation Model

Slide courtesy of Doug McNeall, Met Office, Exeter, UK

Needle-Leaf Forest Fraction

Initial NL fraction

2nd equilibrium Change in NL fraction

1st equilibrium

Outcomes

Determine how climate induced changes in

forest ecosystems will affect critical ecosystem

services.

Identify high priority regions most vulnerable to

morality by fire, drought, temperature and

beetle attack.

Explore the the ecological and economic effects

of policy scenarios.

Demand

Supply

Climate

Vegetation

Economics

Bark Beetle

CLM 4.5 Drought & Fire

Extra Slides

Photo by Jeff Hicke

Bark Beetle Attack

photo bigsky.org

Recent outbreak:

Warmer winters

Summer drought

Climate drivers:

Winter minimum temperature

Fall temperature

Precipitation

Economic model structure

Quantity

Price

Demand

Supply

Quantity

Price

Demand

Supply

Lumber market Pulp market

Price in lumber market

determines demand by

lumber mills for timber

Quantity

Price

Demand

Supply

Timber market

Price in pulp market

determines demand by

pulp mills for timber

Prices in timber market

determine supply by

lumber and pulp mills

Chip sales

Private forest owners supply timber to the mill offering highest price

2020-2049 2070-2099

Difference

Annual carbon loss due to fire

Business as usual, Miroc5

Weather @ home

Super-ensemble

Uncertainty