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    High School Dropout, Race-Ethnicity,

    and Social Background

    from the 1970s to the 1990s

    Robert M. HauserDepartment of Sociology

    Center for Demography and Ecology

    Institute for Research on PovertyUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison

    Solon J. SimmonsDepartment of Sociology

    University of Wisconsin-Madison

    Devah I. PagerDepartment of Sociology

    University of Wisconsin-Madison

    December 12, 2000

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    High School Dropout, Race-Ethnicity,

    and Social Background

    from the 1970s to the 1990s

    Robert M. HauserSolon J. Simmons

    Devah I. Pager

    Abstract

    Between 1972 and 1998, data from October Current Population Surveys show that dropout is

    least among whites and greatest among Hispanics, and it has declined among whites and African-

    Americans since the late 1970s. Annual dropout rates are successively higher in each of the last three

    years of high school, and men drop out more than women. Social background favors school

    continuation among whites relative to minorities, but trends in background were favorable both to

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    Trends in High School Dropout

    among White, Black, and Hispanic Youth, 1972 to 1998

    Just as the earning power of high school graduates has declined relative to that of college

    graduates (Murphy and Welch 1989; Murnane and Levy 1993; Hauser 1993), so has the earning

    power of high school dropouts. Indeed, in most cases, high school dropouts are already unable to

    compete for jobs that pay enough to keep one out of poverty; clearly, the economic consequences of

    dropping out of high school have never been as severe. In this context the highly publicized National

    Goals for Education (U.S. Department of Education 1990) have proclaimed 90 percent high school

    completion among six primary goals.1 Since the middle 1980s, there has been a steady stream of new

    reports about the familial and economic origins of high school dropout (McLanahan 1985; Ekstrom,Goertz, Pollack, and Rock 1986; Krein and Beller 1988; Astone and McLanahan 1991; Haveman,

    Wolfe, and Spaulding 1991; Sandefur, McLanahan, and Wojtkiewicz 1992), and the National Center

    for Education Statistics has produced a regular series of annual reports on trends and differentials in

    high school dropout (for example, Frase 1989; Kaufman and Frase 1990; Kaufman and McMillen

    1991; Kaufman, Kwon, Klein, and Chapman 2000). Thus, the association of high school dropout with

    educational and economic deprivation, minority status, and family disruption is well documented, as is

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    for that matter on the academic achievements of high school graduates. That is, we are as yet poorly

    equipped to assess the costs and benefits of tradeoffs between the quality and quantity of high school

    graduates that may be entailed in standards-driven educational reforms.

    This paper will not greatly reduce our ignorance about these important matters. Indeed, it is not

    clear how long we may have to wait to observe the effects of educational change on dropout rates, or

    whether the effects of visible policy changes may be swamped by other changes, for example, in overall

    economic activity. Rather, it attempts to outline the recent social and historic context of high school

    dropout: Who drops out of high school? What are the major social and economic characteristics

    affecting high school dropout? And how, over the past three decades, have changes in social and

    economic background interacted with and contributed to trends in high school dropout?

    NATIONAL DROPOUT DATA OVER THREE DECADES

    We use a large set of repeated national cross-sectional surveys to assess trends and differentials

    in high school dropout among whites, African Americans, and Hispanics over the past 27 years in light

    of changes in the social and economic circumstances of their families of orientation. We describe the

    overall trends and differentials in dropout, the changing social background of high school students, the

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    in October of the survey year, and who was enrolled in school in the previous October. Thus, a tenth-

    grade dropout is a non-enrolled youth who completed the ninth grade in the survey year or who had

    completed the ninth grade in an earlier year, was enrolled in school in the previous October, but did not

    complete the tenth grade. A similar definition applies to eleventh-grade dropout. At the twelfth-grade

    level, the definition is the same except persons who completed high school during the survey year are

    separately identified and counted as non-dropouts.

    This definition is less than ideal because it combines persons who did not continue from one

    grade to the next in the survey year with persons who dropped out from the next higher grade level

    during the previous academic year, as if they were in the same cohort. For example, dropout in the

    10

    th

    grade includes youth who left school after completing the 9

    th

    grade as well as those who left schoolafter starting the 10th grade in the previous academic year. It also fails to identify return enrollees

    among this year's students at each grade level. Finally, the base of students at risk for 10th grade

    dropout does not include students who failed the 10th grade in the previous academic year unless they

    dropped out before the October survey.2 Despite these problems, the definition is useful, perhaps more

    so than definitions based upon grade completion and enrollment by a specific age, which fail to take

    account of variation in age-grade progression (Hauser 1997, Hauser 2000).3 It probably assesses high

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    Dixon 1993; Hauser and Hauser 1993), as updated and supplemented by similar files for 1991 to

    1998. For all potential dropouts, we know age, sex, race-ethnicity, grade at risk, region of residence,

    and metropolitan location. Except among nondependent youththose who are a householder or spouse

    of a householderand who are not a child or other relative of the householder, we have linked several

    relevant social and economic characteristics of the household and householders to the youth's record:

    female-headed household, employment status of household head, number of children in household,

    education of household head, education of spouse of head, occupation of household head, family

    income, and housing tenure.

    Over the past three decades, 3.1 percent of youths are nondependent at the tenth-grade

    transition; 5 percent are nondependent at the eleventh-grade transition; and 11.8 percent are

    nondependent at the twelfth-grade transition.5 In general, non-dependency is greater among women

    than men, and it is greater among Hispanics and others than among whites or blacks. For example, at

    the 10th grade level, non-dependency is 2.4 percent among men and 3.9 percent among women; at the

    12th grade level, non-dependency is 8.3 percent among men and 15.1 percent among women. At the

    12th grade level, 13.3 percent are nondependent among Hispanics, and 14.7 percent are non-

    dependent among those in other race-ethnic groups. At the same transition, 12.0 percent of whites and

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    that would be observed across all three years of high school. 8 These are only approximations for

    several reasons. First, they are based on annual, cross-section data, rather than on the experience of

    real cohorts across time. Second, they assume constancy in the probability of dropout across grades,

    rather than the observed tendency for dropout to increase with grade level. From 1972 to 1998, the

    dropout rate was 3.7 percent in the 10th grade, 4.7 percent in the 11th grade, and 8.9 percent in the

    12th grade. Third, they ignore repeated school re-entry and dropout, and they include only enrollment

    in regular school. Despite these drawbacks, we think the estimates provide valid information about the

    order of magnitude of dropout from secondary schools during the high school years.

    Dropout among African-Americans and Hispanics was similarly high throughout the 1970s 25

    to 30 percent. It rose toward the end of that decade, but was still lower among blacks at the end than

    at the beginning of the 1970s. However, the black and Hispanic rates diverged in the late 1970s.

    Dropout gradually declined among African-Americans to between 15 and 20 percent, while it peaked

    at close to 30 percent until 1985 among Hispanics and then declined to about 20 percent in 1993

    when the black rate was a lower 15 percent. Both minority groups (and non-Hispanic whites)

    experienced a sharp rise in dropout in the early to mid-1990s perhaps partly an artifact of changing

    survey methods in the early 1990s or a result of improving economic conditions9 but the overall

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    the three-year high school dropout rates to be 11.5 percent among whites and others, 18.3 percent

    among African-Americans, and 21.6 percent among Hispanics.

    Two of the most important factors associated with school dropout are metropolitan and

    suburban residence. Thus, before undertaking a more detailed analysis of the correlates of school

    dropout, we have examined trends and differentials in school dropout by location. In order to obtain