Standardized Baseline Assessment for Rural Off-Grid Electrification in SSA, 11-2013
Has Off-Grid Electrification Come of Age?
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Transcript of Has Off-Grid Electrification Come of Age?
3
Taking stock of the Electricity Access Gap
Others Sub-Saharan Africa
40
11
Low-Access Countries 1 billion people with
no access to electricity
591 million people now
in Sub-Saharan Africa
993 million people by
2030 in Sub-Saharan
Africa
Without Electricity Access
4
Taking stock of the Electricity Access Gap
…And yet another generation in Sub-
Saharan Africa will be denied the potential
opportunities provided by electricity access.
5
The World Bank Group’s Response
20122013
GLOBAL INITIATIVE FOR UNIVERSAL ACCESS BY 2030
BANK GROUP’S DIRECTIONS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR “Grid, mini-grid, and off-grid solutions will all be pursued for electricity. They are not mutually exclusive and can be implemented in parallel or, under specific conditions, in sequence.”
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Unpacking Off-Grid Electrification
Pico-solar photovoltaic charging products: Typically for lighting, cell
phone charging, radio
Individual systems: Typically rooftop solar home systems (SHS)
• household-sized systems
• larger systems for small community needs
Isolated network systems with generation plants
• Microgrids: diesel, hydro, biomass, photovoltaic, wind, or
hybrids
• Minigrid: larger systems that handle water pumping, processing
PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST
• Access to even small quantities of modern electricity is
transformative for the unconnected.
• Over time, people’s expectations for higher levels of access
tend to grow.
• Off-grid options have a crucial ‘pre-electrification’ role until
grid-quality electricity arrives…
• Dynamic transition from lack of access to pre-electrification
to grid-quality electricity needs comprehensive planning, and
staged implementation.
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Journey Towards Universal Access
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Global Tracking Framework distinguishes
five levels (Tiers) of access
Global Tracking Framework distinguishes five levels (tiers) of access: Tier 1 and Tier 2 market segments
that typify the first hugely transformative step for basic access…climbing up to Tiers 3, 4 and 5; with Tier 5
requiring grid-quality electricity
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Catalyzing Off-grid Markets - Pivotal
Achievements Supported by WBG
PRE-ELECTRIFICATION SCALE-UP: BANGLADESH
• Installed 750,000 rooftop Solar Home Systems
(SHS) by 2010;
• Rising exponentially to a cumulative 4 million by 2016
(12% of country population);
• Responded to then-stalled grid expansion
BA
NG
LA
DE
SH
Catalyzing off-grid markets –
Pivotal WBG-supported achievements
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RAPID MARKET PENETRATION OF SOLAR PRODUCTS FOR ACCESS TIERS 1 AND
2: THE LIGHTING AFRICA AND LIGHTING GLOBAL PROGRAMS
• More than 100 companies have sold over 14 million quality-certified pico-solar products.
• This has lifted 21 million people in Africa and Asia to Tier 1 of the energy ladder.
• IFC and World Bank’s Lighting Africa program and its successor, the Lighting Global program pioneered and ramped up this phenomenon through well-designed and targeted technical assistance for quality assurance and service delivery.
• Cost-effective support: Value of products sold is several multiple orders of magnitude higher than relatively small outlay of Lighting Africa and Lighting Global programs.
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Catalyzing Off-grid Markets - Pivotal
Achievements Supported by WBG
STAGED PRE-ELECTRIFICATION: SRI LANKA
• 268 village mini-hydro projects between 1997 and
2011 (serving 20 to 80 households each)
• As the Ceylon Electricity Board’s Grid expanded, per plan,
around 70 mini-hydros have been integrated with
the grid.
SR
I L
AN
KA
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Catalyzing Off-grid Markets - Pivotal
Achievements Supported by WBG
REMOTE AREA ELECTRIFICATION
• Argentina: 30,000 households (about 0.3 % of the
population in a universal access country)
• Peru: 100,000 households in remote and isolated
areas (about 1.6 % of the population, mostly living in
remote areas in a high access country)
AR
GE
NT
INA
PE
RU
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Catalyzing Off-grid Markets - Pivotal
Achievements Supported by WBG
NOMADIC POPULATION ELECTRIFICATION
Mongolia: covered 85 percent of nomadic herder
population with reliable supply chain sales and service
centers numbers.
MO
NG
OL
IA
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Mini and Micro-grids Activities
The World Bank Group supported minigrids on a
significant scale in a few countries (Nepal, Sri Lanka,
Mali, and Cambodia). Other relatively smaller efforts
were made in Bangladesh, Mongolia, and Vietnam.
Efforts are underway in Tanzania for a commercially
oriented larger-scale off-grid program scale-up,
leveraging private sector resources and promoting small-
scale power projects.
IFC’s review of business models for mini and micro-
grids concludes that this subsector holds real potential
and merits greater attention of operating companies,
policymakers and investors.
15
Towards Planned and Coordinated National
Grid and Off-grid Rollout Implementation for
Universal Access
Approach pioneered by WB in Rwanda and Kenya, and
underway in Myanmar marks a major break from piecemeal
electrification activities and initiatives
Anchored by a comprehensive least-cost geospatial plan
which:
• Serves to locate and target beneficiaries geospatially
• Enables least-cost placement and expansion of
electricity access infrastructure.
• Guides a dynamically coordinated strategic-level
rollout in space and time.
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Leveraging the Geospatial least-cost Rollout Plan
for Syndicated Investment Financing
Access rollout toward universal access requires sustained
financing over two decades for most low access countries
• The national geospatial least-cost strategic rollout plan
serves to anchor and foster closer alignment of multiple and
varied donor programs with national priorities.
• It also facilitates and directs financing support (syndication)
of the investment prospectus on-grid or off-grid and in space
and time.
• When backed by appropriate government policy and
regulatory environment, can attract wider range of donors
and private sector sources.
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Rwanda: Development Partner Pledges
Development Partner Financing amount (US$, million)
Programmed donor contribution
World Bank and Global Environment Facility
Dutch government
Japan International Cooperation Agency
African Development Bank
Committed donor funding (off-grid)
European Commission
New partners
Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa
OPEC Fund for International Development
Saudi fund
Government contribution ($10m/yr.)
ELGZ
Customers
TOTAL FINANCING
78
45
25
50
35
10
10
10
50
27
27
357
Rwanda: Prospectus Donor Financing Round Table 2009-2014
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Visible Progress: Rwanda’s 100% coverage
of public facilities nationwide ahead of
schedule
Rwanda: Access provided to public facilities (%)
InstitutionsBaseline
APR ’09 SEPT ‘12 SEPT ‘13 SEPT ‘14
Target
‘16
Actual
DEC ‘15
Off-Grid
Share
Schools 21 35 37 37 80 100 54
Administrative
Centers39 56 59 59 100 100 10
Health Centers,
Hospitals38 53 57 57 100 100 16
Kenya: Similar progress is noted; Myanmar: Underway
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Strategic Lessons/Implications for Operations
in Low Access Countries
Putting People (Beneficiaries) First, Not Technology
Solutions
• Time is of the essence. Deploy the most appropriate
technology to provide at least basic access quickly.
• Plan for the fact that over time, almost all aspire to electricity
services comparable to that of a of a well-managed utility-run
grid system.
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Strategic Lessons/Implications for Operations
in Low Access Countries
Grid versus Off-Grid:
A Falsely Framed Binary Choice
• Grid and off-grid technologies and access service delivery are not
necessarily either-or options.
• Off-grid and grid combination plays out differently in different country
contexts.
• Off-grid electrification has a significant role in most low-access
countries in the near future.
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Strategic Lessons/Implications for Operations
in Low Access Countries
Private and Public Sector: both have a role to play in
Tier 1 and 2 markets
WBG’s combined strengths come together for the benefit of low access
countries for:
• Catalyzing and enabling early stage (“pre-market") development
• Designing the participation of the private and public sectors working in
close partnership.
• Off-grid electrification has come of age in the Tier 1 and Tier 2
categories of electricity access.
• Universal access in low access countries calls for comprehensive national
plans for coordinated off-grid and grid and electrification in space
and time.
• A national geospatial least-cost strategic rollout plan also serves to align donor
programs with national priorities and to syndicate financing from
wider public and private sources.
23
What Works
evaluations that matter
Has Off-Grid Electrification
Come of Age?
Join the conversation on Twitter #Goal7Ramachandra Jammi
02.21.2017
http://ieg.worldbankgroup
.org/evaluations/offgrid-
electricity-services