Harnessing the carbon market to sustain ecosystems and alleviate poverty Draft REDD Methodology...

Harnessing the carbon market to sustain ecosystems and alleviate poverty

Draft REDD Methodology

BioCarbon Fund

Workshop, February 5 – 8, 2008

History and Plan2007:• 1st Draft• Reviewers: Ben de Jong, Bernhard Schlamadinger, Tim

Pearson + Comments from Andrea Garcia and Marc Steiniger

2008:• January: 2nd Draft• February: Comments from WB colleagues

Finalized 2nd Draft• March: 2nd round of comments by reviewers• June: 3rd draft submitted to VCS?

Existing guidanceIPCC (www.ipcc.ch):• Revised 1996 GL for National GHG Inventories. • 2003 GPG for Land Use, Land Use-Change, and Forestry .• 2006 GL for National GHG Inventories, Vol. 4, Agriculture, Forestry

and Other land Uses (AFOLU).

Winrock International (www.winrock.org):• Reducing GHG Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in

Developing Countries: a Sourcebook of Methods and Procedures for Monitoring, Measuring and Reporting.

• Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Projects.

Voluntary Carbon Standard (www.v-c-s.org):• Guidance for Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Projects

Issues

• Insufficient policy guidance on critical methodological issues:– Definitions (forest, deforestation, degradation)– Project and Baseline Emissions– Emissions from land-use after deforestation– Leakage (types, attribution, assessment)– Etc.

• Components of a baseline– Quantity– Location– Carbon stock changes

Applicability conditions

(a) Only “gross deforestation”.

(b) Deforestation agents, drivers and underlying causes can be identified.

(c) Deforestation and forest degradation agents are bound to a certain region and cannot migrate beyond that region.

(d) Information on forest cover and forest status before the start of the project activity is available for at least two points in time.

(e) Information on land use-use and land-cover on deforested land before the start of the project activity is available.

Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity: spatial, temporal, carbon pools and sources of greenhouse gas emissions.

Step 4. Project the quantity of future deforestation and forest degradation

Step 3. Analyze agents, drivers and underlying causes of deforestation and forest degradation

Step 5. Project the location of future deforestation and forest degradation by analyzing the spatial correlation between historical land-use and land-cover change and biogeophysical and socioeconomic factors (vicinity to roads, slope, population density, etc.)

Step 7. Estimate the expected baseline carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions.

Step 2. Analyze historical land-use and land-cover change in the reference region during the past 10-15 years and project potential forest regeneration.

Approach a: Linear projection. Deforestation and forest degradation are linearly projected from observed historical trends.

Approach c: Corridor. Deforestation and forest degradation are projected as a likelihood corridor to reflect uncertainty.

Step 6. Project future baseline activity data (the land-use and land-cover change component of the baseline) by combining the results of steps 2, 4 and 5.

Step 10. Calculate the expected ex ante net anthropogenic GHG emission reductions.

Step 8. Estimate the expected actual carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions.

Step 9. Estimate the expected leakage carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions.

Approach b: Multiple regression. Deforestation and forest degradation are projected using multiple regression.

Select the applicable baseline approach and justify the choice.




Step 5. Project the location of future deforestation and forest degradation by analyzing the spatial correlation between historical land-use and land-cover change and biogeophysical and socioeconomic factors (vicinity to roads, slope, population density, etc.)



Approach a: Linear projection. Deforestation and forest degradation are linearly projected from observed historical trends.

Approach c: Corridor. Deforestation and forest degradation are projected as a likelihood corridor to reflect uncertainty.

Step 6. Project future baseline activity data (the land-use and land-cover change component of the baseline) by combining the results of steps 2, 4 and 5.


Step 8. Estimate the expected actual carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions.

Step 9. Estimate the expected leakage carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions.

Approach b: Multiple regression. Deforestation and forest degradation are projected using multiple regression.

Select the applicable baseline approach and justify the choice.

Ex ante methodology steps


Ex ante = before validation

Ex ante = before validation

Ex post methodology steps





Step 11. Project monitoring.

Step 13. Adjustment of the baseline for future crediting periods.

Step 12. Ex post calculation of net anthropogenic GHG emssion reduction

Ex post = during project implementation

Ex post = during project implementation

Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity.

1.1 Spatial boundaries

1.2 Temporal boundaries

1.3 Carbon pools

1.4 Sources of emissions and GHG

Reference region

= Forest to be protected / managed

= Area where pre-project activities could be displaced

= Domain from which information on DD agents, drivers and rates is extracted and projected.


1.1 Spatial boundaries

Leakage belt

Project area


1. 2 Temporal boundaries

time

Project start Project end

End of 1st crediting period and start of 2nd crediting period

End of 2st crediting period and start of 3rd crediting period

min 20

max 100 yrs

max 10

yrs

Start of the historical reference period

End of the historical reference period

10-15

yrs


1. 3 Carbon pools

1. Above-ground biomass• Trees• Non-Trees

2. Below-ground biomass

3. Dead wood• Standing• Lying• Wood products

4. Litter

5. Soil organic carbon

Selection criteria:

• Principle of conservadurism.

• Expected magnitude of carbon stock change.

• Cost

Could be different carbon pools depending on the land-use/land-cover change category.

Trees Dead Wood

Soil Carbon

Non-treeVegetation

WoodProducts

Before Deforestation

After Deforestation

Car

bo

n S

tock

(Brown et al., 2007)

(Brown et al., 2007)

Car

bo

n S

tock

time

Trees

Non-Tree Vegetation

Dead Wood

Soil Carbon

Harvested wood



Under the REDD activity scenario:

GHG emissions that would occur in the baseline are avoided.

GHG emissions due to project activities are likely to occur.

GHG emissions due to leakage are likely to increase.

• Conservatively ignore them.• Can count non-CO2

emissions from forest fire.

• Reasonably assume that project emissions are less than baseline emissions ignore.

• Leakage prevention measures and activity displacement may lead to significant GHG emissions consider.



Source GHG Comment

Forest fires CH4 and N2O Avoided baseline emission

Fertilization N2O Leakage prevention measures

Enteric fermentation

CH4 Leakage prevention measures

Manure management

CH4 and N2O Leakage prevention measures

• Non-significant sources are omitted• Significance is tested using the EB-CDM approved tool

Step 2. Analysis of historical Land-Use and Land-Cover Change.

2.1 Select data sources

2.2 Define land-use/land-cover classes

2.3 Define LULC-change categories

2.4 Prepare LULC and LULC-change maps and LULC-change matrices

2.5 Assess map accuracy

2.6 Prepare a methodological annex


2.1 Select data sources

• Prefer existing LU/LC and LU/LC-change maps if they are already approved by the national authority and/or independently validated.

• Unclassified remotely sensed data (medium resolution – Landsat, Spot).

• Ground-truth data (high resolution remotely sensed data and/or field data).


2.2 Define land-use / land-cover classes

• Consistent with IPCC classes:- Forest Land - Wetland- Cropland - Settlement- Grassland - Other land

• Consult National GHG inventory for the definitions.

• Subdivide, as necessary, to build homogeneous carbon stock density classes.

Time

tCO2e ha-1

Undisturbed Forest

Initial degradation

Intermediate degradation

Advanced degradation

Forest Degradation

Forest Non- Forest

Carbon Density Classes

Degradation

tCO2e ha-1

TimeRecovered

ForestInitial

successionIntermediate succession

Advancedsuccession

Forest Plantation or Succession

ForestNon-Forest

Carbon stock enhancement(“Regeneration”)

Carbon Density Classes


2.3 Define LU/LC-change categories

Describe class transitions in case of degradation and carbon stock enhancement (= “ Forest Regeneration”).

Intact forest Cropland

Grassland

Wetland

Settlement

Other Land

Forest Land Non-Forest LandForest Regeneration

Forest Degradation

DeforestationDegraded forest

Managed forest

Non-Forest Degraded

ForestClass X

Forest

Non-Forest ForestClass X

Forest Regeneration

Class ANon-Forest

Degraded Forest

Class X

Forest Regeneration

Class B

Forest Regeneration

Class A

Degraded Forest Class X

Forest Regeneration

Class B

Regeneration (C-stock

enhancement)

Degradation Deforestation

Forest Regeneration

Class A

Forest Regeneration

Class B

Forest Regeneration

Class C

Forest Regeneration

Class D

Regeneration (C-stock

enhancement)

Degradation Deforestation

Forest Class X

Degraded Forest

Class Y

Possible class transitions during one crediting periodPossible class transitions during one crediting period

Step 2. Analysis of historical Land-Use and Land- Cover Change.

2.3 Prepare LU/LC and LU/LC-change maps and LU/LC-change matrices

• Forest cover benchmark map• Past and current LU/LC• Past LU/LC change• Potential forest regeneration map

2.5 Assess map accuracy

2.6 Prepare a methodological annex

Step 3. Analysis of agents, drivers, underlying causes and chain of events

3.1 Agents• Who is deforesting / degrading?

3.2 Drivers:• What drives the agents to cut the trees?

(a) Spatial variables (predisposing factors)(b) Economic and social variables.

3.3 Underlying causes:• Ultimate reasons explaining the drivers.

3.4 Chain of events:• Relationships between agents.• Typical sequence of events leading to

deforestation or degradation.


4.1 Analysis of remaining forest area that is suitable for conversion to non-forest use and logging activities

4.2 Selection of the baseline approach

4.3 Quantitative projection of future deforestation and forest degradation


4.1 Analysis of remaining forest area that is suitable for conversion to non-forest use and logging activities

Time

DD rates are likely to decrease once only “sub-optimal” areas remain available.

DD rates should decrease once only “marginal” areas remain available.

DD rates should be zero once no suitable area remains available.

DD rates are likely to continue at the historical level as long as “optimal” areas are available.Ha yr-1


4.2 Selection of the baseline approach

(a) Linear projection: Future deforestation and degradation is linearly projected from past trends.

(b) Modeling approach: Future deforestation and degradation is projected using multiple regression techniques (requires sufficient data points).

(c) Corridor approach:Future deforestation and degradation is projected as an average of the historical rate. The 90% confidence interval of the mean is calculated to determine a “corridor” of likely baseline deforestation and forest degradation.

Variable DD

Observed Projected

Approach b: Modeling approach

Monitoring and ex post adjustment (dynamic baseline)

time

ha

Constant DDDecreasing DDIncreasing DD

Observed ProjectedObserved Projected Observed Projected

Approach a: Linear projection

time

ha

time

ha

time

ha

Variable DD

Observed Projected

Approach c: Corridor approach

90% CI

time

ha

50% credit

0 credit

Full credit


4.3 Quantitative projection of future deforestation and forest degradation

Year Deforestation (ha) Degradation (ha)1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

…

Project end

Step 5. Project the location of future deforestation and forest degradation

Distance to roads

Distance to roads

Deforestation in year 1



Deforestation in year …

Suitability

Road

Road


5.1 Create driver maps from spatial variables.

5.2 Create suitability maps for deforestation and for degradation.

5.3 Select the most accurate suitability map for deforestation and for degradation.

5.4 Locate future deforestation and forest degradation.

Slope Vicinity to roads

Logging areasLand allocation projects

Suitability Map

Spatial variables Driver Maps

CATIE Study in Costa Rica (1996-2006)

Ex post correlation with actual deforestation: r = 0.91 (p < 0.001)

Step 4

Step 5

Deforested Potential

Degradation Mapyear 1

Category 1 of Categorized

Potential Degradation Map

Area that would be degraded in

year 1

DeforestedPotential



year 2



Deforested Potential



year 3



Continue

Categorized Potential

Degradation. Map

In case that degradation is taken into account…


At the end of Step 5 we have:

Initial LU/LC Cover Map

Potential Forest Regeneration Map

Potential Deforestation Map

Potential Forest Degradation Map

From step 2

From step 2

From step 5

From step 5

Step 6. Project future land-use and land-cover change

6.1 Identification of LU/LC-change categories in “forest land remaining forest land”

• Forest degradation

• Forest regeneration (= carbon stock enhancement)

6.2 Identification of LU/LC-change categories in “forest land converted to non-forest land”.

• Deforestation

LU/LC-Map year 0

Potential Deforestation

year 1

Deforested LU/LC-Map

year 1

Potential Degradation

year 1 Deforested & Degraded LU/LC-Map

year 1

Potential Regeneration

year 1

D&D & Regenerated LU/LC-Map

year 1

Potential Degradation

year 2

Potential Deforestation

year 2

Deforested LU/LC-Map

year 2

Deforested & Degraded LU/LC-Map

year 2

Potential Regeneration

year 2

D&D & Regenerated LU/LC-Map

year 2

LU/LC-Map year 1

Continue with all future years

Step 2

Step 5

Step 6


Forest land remaining forest land: Forest Degradation

Project year

Forest A to

Degraded Forest A1

Forest B to

Degraded Forest B1

Forest C to

Degraded Forest C1

Degraded Forest A1

to Degraded Forest A2

Degraded Forest B1

to Degraded Forest B2

Degraded Forest B1


Degraded Forest A2

to Degraded Forest A3

Degraded Forest B2


Etc. (as

needed) Total

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

1

2

3

…

n

Total crediting period

Total project duration


Degradation and carbon stock enhancement (“regeneration”).

Forest strata converted to non-forest land

Project year

Forest A Forest B Forest C Degraded Forest A1

Degraded Forest B1

Degraded Forest C1

Degraded Forest A2

Degraded Forest B2

etc. (as

needed) Total


1

2

3

…

n




Deforestation.

Step 6. Project future land-use and land-cover change


Three methods are available to do this projection:

(1) Historical LULC-change;

(2) Suitability modeling; and

(3) Ex post observations (dynamic baseline).

Non-forest land uses that would be established on deforested forest land

Project year

Grassland A

Grassland B

Grassland C

Cropland A

Cropland B

Cropland C

Wetland A

Wetland B Etc. (as

needed) Total


1

2

3

…

n





7.1 Estimation of the average carbon stock density of each LU/LC class.

7.2 Estimation of non-CO2 emissions from forest fires (if applicable).

7.3 Calculation of Emission Factors.

7.4 Calculations of carbon stock changes due to forest degradation and regeneration.

7.5 Calculation of carbon stock changes (and non-CO2 emissions) due to deforestation.

7.6 Estimation of total baseline carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions (CBASELINE)

Average carbon stock

in the "from" class Average carbon stock

in the "to" class Emission Factor

(Average carbon stock change)

CAB CBB CDW CL CSOC CAB CBB CDW CL CSOC CAB CBB CDW CL CSOC

LULC-change category tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

Forest A to Grass Land Forest B to Grass Land Forest C to Grass Land Forest A to Crop Land Forest B to Crop Land

Deforestation

Forest C to Crop Land Forest A to Forest B Forest B to Forest C

Regeneration

Forest C to Forest A Forest B to Forest A

Degradation Forest C to Forest B

LU/LC-change category

Deg

Reg

Def

7.3 Calculation of Emission Factors.

Emission Factor Activity

data Carbon stock change

CAB CBB CDW CL CSOC CAB CBB CDW CL CSOC Total

LULC-change category tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

ha tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e

Forest A to Forest B Forest B to Forest C

Regeneration

Forest C to Fores A Forest B to Forest A

Degradation Forest C to Forest B

Total for year (year)

7.4 Calculations of carbon stock changes due to forest degradation and regeneration.

Average carbon stock density Activity

data Total carbon stock

CAB CBB CDW CL CSOC CAB CBB CDW CL CSOC Total

LULC-class tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

tCO2e ha-1

ha tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e

Forest A Forest B Forest Land

Forest C Total for

Forest Land

Crop Land non-Forest Land Grass Land

Total for non-Forest Land

Carbon stock change =

Total for non-Forest Land

minus Total for

Forest Land (year)

7.5 Calculation of carbon stock changes due to deforestation.

Deforestation Forest Degradation Forest Regeneration Total Carbon Stock

Changes

Total non-CO2 Emissions

from Biomass Burning

Total

CA

B

CB

B

CD

W

CL

CSO

C

Tot

al

CA

B

CB

B

CD

W

CL

CSO

C

Tot

al

CA

B

CB

B

CD

W

CL

CSO

C

Tot

al

CA

B

CB

B

CD

W

CL

CSO

C

Tot

al

GH

GA

B

GH

GD

W

GH

GL

Tot

al

CB

ASE

LIN

E

Project year

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

tCO

2e

1 2 3 4 … n



7.6 Estimation of total baseline carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions (CBASELINE)

Step 8. Estimate the expected actual carbon stock changes.

• Estimations are based on planned project activities.

• The expected level of “activity data” is reported in tables similar to the previous ones.

• The numbers of reduced activity data for “degradation” and “deforestation” and the underlying assumptions must be explained and justified.

• If specific measures are undertaken to enhance carbon stocks in “regeneration” forest classes, the Potential Forest Regeneration Map must be adjusted accordingly .

Step 9. Estimation of expected leakage: carbon stock changes and non-CO2

emissions (CLEAKAGE)

measuresLKntDisplacemeLEAKAGE EEC

animalsLKionfertilizatLKmeasuresLK GHGGHGE ,,

EDisplacement = (CBASELINE - CACTUAL) * X%

Assumptions about attributability of different types of leakage

• Attributable to a REDD project activity are:– Activity displacement. – Emissions from measures implemented to prevent activity

displacement.

• Not attributable are:– Positive leakage (consistently with CDM). – Market effects:

• Project can not control markets and market actors, but government can• Market effects are attributable to governments• If market effects are not controlled by governments and carbon prices,

DD will continue.

CBASELINE CACTUAL CLEAKAGE CREDD CREDD Total

carbon stock

changes

Total permanent

GHG emissions

Total carbon stock

changes

Total permanent

GHG emissions

Total carbon stock

changes

Total permanent

GHG emissions

Total carbon stock

changes

Total permanent

GHG emissions

Total

Project year tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e tCO2e

1 2

3 4

… n

Total cred.

period

Total project

duration


LEAKAGEACTUALBASELINEREDD CCCC







Step 13. Adjustment of the baseline for future crediting periods.

Step 12. Ex post calculation of net anthropogenic GHG emssion reduction


11.1 Project implementation:• Measures to reduce deforestation and forest

degradation; • Measures to enhance carbon stocks; and • Measures to reduce the risk of leakage.

11.2 Land-use and land-cover change in the reference region, project area and leakage belt

11.3 Driver variables used to estimate the quantity and location of future deforestation and forest degradation

11.4 Carbon stocks

Step 12. Calculation of ex post net anthropogenic GHG emission reductions

LEAKAGEACTUALBASELINEREDD CCCC

Ex ante projection

Ex post measured

Ex post measured

Step 13. Adjustment of the baseline projections for future crediting periods

13.1 Adjustment of the land-use / land-cover change component of the baseline

13.2 Adjustment of the carbon stock-change component of the baseline

?BBB

timeT1 T2 T3 T4t-2 t-1 t1 t2t0

T3: 4 x A

A

A

A

A

T1: 1 x B

T1: 1 x A

A

B

T2: 3 x A

T2: 2 x B

A

A

A

BB

13.1 Adjustment of the land-use / land-cover change component of the baseline

T2: (PA+LKB)/RR = 2/3

T3: (PA+LKB)/RR= ?/4

T3: 2/3 = ?/4? = 2/3*4 = 2.6

Reference Region

Project Area and Leakage Belt

13.2 Adjustment of the carbon stock-change component of the baseline

• Measure and adjust, as necessary, the estimated average carbon stock density of LU/LC classes

• Adjust emission factors

End of ex post methodology steps

End of ex post methodology steps

Thank you!

Harnessing the carbon market to sustain ecosystems and alleviate poverty Draft REDD Methodology...

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