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HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling Jeanette Onvlee...
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Transcript of HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling Jeanette Onvlee...
HARMONIE
a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE onhigh resolution modelling
Jeanette OnvleeCOSMO General Meeting
Cracow, 20080916
Outline
• Background and scope of the HARMONIE cooperation
• HARMONIE mesoscale modelling developments; status and plans
• Ensemble forecasting activities and plans• Other developments
History• Background: Wish to join forces to meet the challenges of
mesoscale modelling– Common ambitions– Play to each partner’s strengths– Good experiences in previous research cooperation
• Goals of cooperation: full code cooperation on common mesoscale model in IFS/Arpege code framework, joint development of short-range ensemble forecasting system
• A new name:– HARMONIE: HIRLAM-ALADIN Research on Mesoscale Operational
NWP In Euromed• Common activities:
– joint scientific/strategic planning– setup of ALADIN code-based systems in HIRLAM institutes– joint meetings and working/training weeks– from “division of labour” increasingly to interacting, mixed research
teams• ECMWF increasingly also involved (common stakes in IFS system,
research cooperation in physics, dynamics and EPS)
Present status of HARMONIE mesoscale
• Data assimilation:– 3D-VAR/FGAT– use of obs: basically everything which ECMWF assimilates is available;
in practice: SYNOP/SHIP/BUOY, TEMP, AMDAR, AMSU-A/B, GEO/AMVs, wind profiler, radar winds
– Var-QC• Forecast model
– dynamics: NH-ALADIN (spectral, SLSI)– Upper air model physics: three flavours
• AROME/ EDMF, explicit deep convection, ECMWF radiation• ALARO/ Bougeault/TKE, 3MT, ALADIN radiation• HIRLAM/ CBR, KFB, RK/CAM3, Saavijarvi radiation (baseline only)
• Surface model/DA: – Externalized scheme SURFEX: ISBA soil, canopy/forest, snow, urban,
lake– OI assimilation scheme– INCA analysis system for nowcasting, validation
• Monitoring, validation and verification tools
AROME’s resolved convection : a deep change for bench forecasters’ expertise job
Arome
Aladin
Radar observation
The ‘application side’ of the ‘double penalty’ syndrome for verification: details of AROME bring good information about the structure
of the field but they might be more misleading about the timing-position than their ALADIN counterparts at the latter’s
scale
Some other HARMONIE suites...
NRT suites with AROME/ALARO by almost all HIRLAM partners and some
more (Hungary...)Operational suites with ALARO/3MT in
several LACE countries
In total ~ 13 systems, typically 2.5km, 40 levels
Data assimilation: algorithms • 3D-VAR:
– Different ways of blending in info from larger scale 4D-VAR– LACE: implementation of 3D-VAR operationally in all LACE countries – Experimentation with rapid update cycling
• 4D-VAR in preparation; – Flow dependency by wavelets, ensemble assimilation; – Take in concepts from HIRLAM 4D-VAR experience: Jdfi, Jk, multiple
outer loops, ...• Experimentation with hybrid variational / ensemble assimilation
techniques - ETKF, Lorenc
• Surface: replace OI with EKF scheme • Initialization with scale-selective DFI
Data assimilation: use of observations
• Use of observations: Increase range of observations to be assimilated: – HIRLAM: Comprehensive observation impact studies (CIS)
• Now on synoptic scale (AMSU-A/B over sea/land/ice, GEO and MODIS AMV, scatterometer over Atlantic/Arctic, initial results positive; starting on convection exps with SEVIRI, radar winds, GPS)
• Transfer to mesoscale, focus on summer convection and radar– High-resolution sat data: e.g. SEVIRI, IASI, ADM; cloud– and
land-contaminated data, varBC, tuning of obs error stats and impact studies
– Radar winds/precip, GPS, BUFR TEMP• Radar processing inhomogeneity, data exchange, beam blocking
critical issues– Surface: screen level parameters, (scatterometer) soil moisture,
SST/sea ice, lake, snow, snow on ice
Psurf
T Hu
FF
DD
Assimilation of radar winds: Neutral to slightly positive scores in AROME-France:
Precip
R0
CNTRL RADAR
Forecast model: Dynamics
– NH core validation and comparison with hydrostatic: LACE, ECMWF
– Vertical Finite Element formulation– Variable map factor for use of SISL over large
domains – Improved quality of LBC – Nesting experiments with various configurations– More mass-conserving (less diffusive) SL
interpolators (also for coupling to chemistry)
Forecast model: upper air physics• AROME:
– Highest priority: solve presently remaining problems: overestimate of severe convection, extreme precipitation, negative wind bias over steep orography, minimum temp under very stable conditions
• Physics-dynamics interactions• Impact of additional deep convection parametrization (either within
EDMF or separate) • 3D-turbulence scheme• Tuning of microphysics• Representation of orographic roughness• Stable boundary layer modifications to turbulence scheme
– Surface: compare AROME/HIRLAM snow/forest schemes, add snow on ice parametrization
• ALARO/3MT:– Now operational in several LACE institutes– Comparison with AROME on 5km scale ongoing in HIRLAM
• Convergence between various physics options? Different coding strategies make common interfacing at low level in source code difficult.
2nd AROME training course, Lisbon, March 2008
16
AROME performance : low-level scores
• Objective scores of AROME-France using French automatic surface obs network (hourly data every ~30km)
• Beats ALADIN-France in most respects
Scores over France for 5-18 February 2008 (Arome in pink Aladin in blue)
10m windspeed
2m Temperatureforecast range (h)
forecast range (h) forecast range (h)
2m Humidity
3MT’s sampling of the ‘grey-zone’ (ALARO-0)
A0 with 3MT =>
A0 without 3MT =>
‘Resolved’ convection =>
Observed precipitations =>
Δx=9.0 km (2x) Δx=4.5 km (2x) Δx=2.3 km (3x)
Forecast model: other aspects
• Numerical efficiency and portability: profiling studies• Diagnostics, validation and verification:
– Exchange started, but should be intensified– HIRLAM: routine monitoring/verification system, increasingly
enhance with appropriate mesoscale diagnostics tools (incl from COSMO)
– ALADIN/LACE: Catching up with the state of the art – Exchange with other consortia within SRNWP/ Verification
project Programme.
• System aspects:– HIRLAM/LACE: Explore common script system?– SRNWP/Interoperability programme
Ensemble forecasting activities
Existing real-time LAM EPS systems within HIRLAM/ALADIN/LACE:
• LAEF: – Downscaling of Arpege, plus breeding, ETKF, physics perturbations;
Eur area + part Atlantic, +72h, 20km res, 16 members• NORLAMEPS:
– downscaling of ECMWF TEPS, N.Atl/Eur area, +72h, 12km resolution, 21 members
• SREPS – 5 regional models nested in 4 global models, with SLAF; NAtl/Eur
area, +72h, 27km resolution, 80 members
Under construction: GLAMEPS (others to be replaced by/integrated into this??)– Downscaling of EUROTEPS, plus HIRLAM/ALADIN SV’s, ETKF,
perturbations in physics and surface, ... – NAtl/Eur area, target resolution 10km, 40 layers, 50-60 members
Ensemble forecasting activities
LAEF:- New breeding/blending/multi-physics system
offers improvements over pure downscaling version => to be implemented operationally soon
- 1st + 2d moment calibration of pdf promising- Optimize operational setup through e.g.
introduction of SMS- Target resolution: 10km- Evaluate outcome of Beijing 2008
Verification for a two-month period: June-August 2007: Clear improvement of extended LAEF system
Impact of bias correction and 2d moment calibration
GLAMEPS
Joint multi-model EPS system for HIRLAM & ALADIN. Present status:• GLAMEPS prototype setup (version 0) implemented at ECMWF. • HIRLAM components: EUROTEPS,
physics perturbations, HIRLAM (forcing) SVs,ETKF, surface perturbations
• ALADIN components: breeding, blending,multi-physics, ETKF, ALADIN SV
• Calibration: BMA for 1st / 2d moment of pdf, Gaussian and non-Gaussian parameters
• Ongoing: configuration tests for prototype distributed GLAMEPS system (v1: March 2009). Continue parallel experimentation in laboratory
• Continue pursuit of Eur. LAMEPS coopera- tion in TIGGE-LAM
GLAMEPS
Model domain (for
HIRLAM components)
and EUROTEPS
targeting areas
for Northern,
Middle and Southern
Europe
Other (HIRLAM) developments (1)
Coupling with atmospheric chemistry Activities:• Make HIRLAM output better suited as input to ACT models
(postprocessing, vert resolution in BL, …)• Dynamics: better mass-conserving properties:
– more accurate interpolators– mass conserving SL scheme of Kaas et al.
• ENVIRO-HIRLAM coupled system being installed as HIRLAM chemistry branch at DMI
To be done: – include aerosols in microphysics– include desired physics options where necessary (e.g. radiation
scheme) – Start study of chemistry-cloud feedbacks
Current version of DMI-ENVIRO-HIRLAM modelling systems, showing the components of a forecast
WRF-CHEM
Gas-phase chemistry: RADM, RACM, CBMZAerosol dynamics: MOSAIC, SORGAMPhotolysis: MadronichCloud chemistryConvectionDepositionPlumerise
CAC-Aerosol Dynamics
Modal modelLog-normal modes: nuclei, accumulation, coarseMoment equations: Intra-modal coagulation, Intra-modal coagulation, condensation
-GEMS/TNO-EMEP
Min. number of advected quantities: RADM 2 gas-phase chemistry, no cloud chemistry, CAC aerosol dynamics ~ 50
Max. number of advected quatities: Carbon bond IV gas-phase chemistry, cloud chemistry, 8-bin Mosaic aerosol dynamics ~ 250
Other developments
• HIRLAM: Coupling with ocean model• HIRLAM/ALADIN: Simplified model version for
academia• HIRLAM/ALADIN: Models as tools for regional
climate modelling:– Update of HIRLAM as “climate branch”– Push use of ALADIN as tool for regional projections– Definition and setup of climate branch for HARMONIE
Downscaling EPS with HIRLAMRKKF - cloud scheme: verif. at 2007/08/22 12utc
+42-48
+18-24
]6/5Pr[ hmmP ]6/10Pr[ hmmP
RMSE difference
U
RHU
Expected extra from 3-hourly cycling: - more SYNOPs (Ps only)
- more AMDAR
- more AMV
- more Wind Profiler
- smaller error in the innovation vector for
ATOVS (due to more frequent analysis)
Preliminary results: - improvement for all fields (see figures on the
left where red shades indicate that
3h cycling is better than 6h cycling)
Next:
- diagnose spin-up in the 3h background forecast
Aladin Rapid Update Cycle (Ald-Hun)