Hard facts on atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and

Hard facts on atmospheric CO2 concentration, and

a sure way to stabilise it???

11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Year

Gas fuel consumption

Liquid fuel consumption

Solid fuel consumption

Cement production

Gas flaring

Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the

manufacture of cement

(Unit: 109 kg)

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Year

Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the

manufacture of cement

(Unit: 109 kg)



275

300

325

350

375

400

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Year

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

(Unit: ppmv)



383.7


http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/graphics/gl_land.gif

Global temperature (land meteorological stations)


http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/graphics/gl_land_ocean.gif

Global temperature (land + ocean)


http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/graphics/nhsh.gif

Global temperature (North and South)

Global temperature has not variedby more than 1 or 2oC during the past 10,000 years.

Global temperature has risen by more than 0.6oC during the last 100 years.

Global Warming has begun, and so has the Climate Change.


Consequences…………

75% of the ice on Kilimanjaro

has been lost since 1912, and

all ice could vanish soon.11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini

Consequences…………


Consequences…………• death of coral reefs

• fewer cubs for polar bears

• spread of dengue and other diseases

• heavy rains & severe draughts

• fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes

• changed rainfall patterns

• warming and aridity

• loss of biodiversity11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year

Rate of increase of CO2 concentration

(Unit: ppmv/year)



350

375

400

425

450

475

500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

actual valueat 1.5 ppmv/ yearat 2.0 ppmv/ yearat 2.5 ppmv/ year

CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)


global temperaturemay be up by 2oC

-Accelerated Climate Change-Mass extinctions-Ecosystems breakdowns-Large scale discontinuities

At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO2

will be reached in 2018, and it is probable that the global temperature would go up by 2oC (compare it with the 0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF).


Some say, forget about the 2oC. The limit is not 400 ppmv

CO2. It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is

nearly twice the pre-industrial value), which we may reach

not. 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100Year

actual valueat 1.5 ppmv/ yearat 2.0 ppmv/ yearat 2.5 ppmv/ year

CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)


We are lucky. Are we?

How to stop further global warming, climate change, and the terrible consequences of increased CO2

concentrations in the atmosphere?


But, we replace our forests with cities, highways & golf courses.

Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs).

Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees.11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini

The forest cover is already too small

to help reducing global warming. How long does it take to grow

a tree like this?


Option 2: Change to non-CO2 emitting energy sources


What are they?Nuclear HydroRenewables (Geothermal,

Solar, Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power

Energy from sustainably managed renewable sources

Ulf Bossel – October 2005

Solar energy Photovoltaic DC electricitythermal AC electricity, hot water,

space heating etc.Wind energy AC electricityHydropower AC electricityOcean energy waves, tides AC electricityGeothermal heat AC electricity, hot water,

space heating etc.Biomass & organic waste

heat, organic fuels

Biomass & organic waste

heat AC electricity, hot water, space heating etc.


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Petroleum

Coal

Dry Natural Gas

Hydroelectric Power

Nuclear ElectricPower

Electric Power fromRenewables

Global Energy Consumption by Fuel (in 1015 BTU)


http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Petroleum

Coal

Dry Natural Gas

Hydroelectric Power

Nuclear ElectricPower

Electric Power fromRenewables

Global Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Fossil fuel

Nuclear Electric Power

Hydroelectric Power

Electric Power from Renewables




enlarge


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Hydroelectric Power

Nuclear Electric Power

Electric Power from Renewables



There is no immediate financial benefits for a switch to renewable energy in the profit-oriented energy markets.


More people

More pollution

Option 3: Reduce Population


If you are in USA, you will be lighting 15 bulbs, each with 100 W power

If you are in China, you will be lighting 2 bulbs, each with 100 W power 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini

in 2004

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

CO2 (metrictons per capita)

Population GDP percapita, PPP(const 2000

International $)

Low income

Lower middleincome

Upper middleincome

High income


in 2003

Should not we rethink about economic growth (increasing GDP per capita), at any cost?


The supreme Greek God Zeus told Prometheus:

“You may give men such gifts as are suitable, but you must not give them fire for that belongs tothe Immortals.”

– Roger Lancelyn GreenTales of the Greek Heroes

Puffin Classics


Option 4 to stabilise atmospheric CO2 concentration?


Think about it and come up with ideas. By the way, it would make a very good project for the sustainable development course.

Hard facts on atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and

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