Hanover Seminars Peter Clarke Malcolm Baker Philip Hannah

Introductions [who are we]? [why are we here]? [what we want to talk about]? [why is it important]? [how do we want you to leave]?

20t

h  C

entu

ry  C

ris

es

21s

t ce

ntu

ry

cr

ises

PERSONAL REFLECTIONS •  TRAINED IN 20TH CENTURY CRISES –

BRADFORD, ZEEBRUGGE, HILLSBOROUGH, CLAPHAM

•  FACED WITH 21ST CENTURY CRISES – BALI, RICIN, 7/7, 21/7, AIRLINES PLOT, FOREST GATE, LITVINENKO

 WHAT HAS CHANGED? HOW CAN WE BE BETTER PREPARED?

complex

FROM  IRISH  TO  ISLAMIST....  

 Domes2c  

                                             Global  

 Tightly  Structured  

                                               Fluid  

 Avoid  Capture  

 Suicide  

 Restricted  Casual2es  

 Mass  Murder  

 Warnings  

 No  Warnings  

 Bombs  and  Bullets  

 Unconven2onal  

 Nego2able  Agenda  

 No  Poli2cal  Solu2on  

8  

Humanitarian

Assistance

Centre

Help/Support Line

Crisis Support team(s)

Temporary Mortuary

Body Holding Area(s)

Family and Friends Reception Centre(s) Family Liaison

Officers Rest Centre

Survivor Reception Centre

Documentation team(s)

Casualty Clearing Station(s)

Implement structures according to need & time.

Casualty Bureau

Evacuation Assembly

Point

uncertain

UNCERTAINTY

•  RISK OF INFORMATION OVERLOAD AND CONSEQUENT LACK OF CLARITY e.g BEHAVIOURAL INDICATORS

•  ON 21/7, FEAR OF CBRN •  FRAGILITY OF PHONE SYSTEMS – 9/11

AND 7/7 •  WILL THERE BE FURTHER ATTACKS?

9/11, 7/7 AND AIRLINES PLOT.

interconnected

Interconnected Consequences

INTERCONNECTED  CONSEQUENCES

•  CONTAMINATION  •  PUBLIC  HEALTH  •  CRIME  •  INTELLIGENCE  •  DIPLOMACY  

unclear

UNCLEAR

•  DESPITE  CLEAR  C2  AND  MODERN  COMMUNICATIONS  -­‐  LACK  OF  CLARITY  AS  TO  7/7  ATTACKS  FOR  SOME  HOURS    

•  DESPITE  MODERN  MEDICINE  AND  SCIENCE,  IT  TOOK  WEEKS  TO  UNDERSTAND  LITVINENKO’S  CONDITION.  

•  WHAT  IS  THE  INTELLIGENCE  ACTUALLY  TELLING  US  –  eg  FOREST  GATE?  

UNCLEAR

•  RISK  OF  INFORMATION  OVERLOAD  AND  CONSEQUENT  LACK  OF  CLARITY  e.g  BEHAVIOURAL  INDICATORS  

•  ON  21/7,  FEAR  OF  CBRN  •  FRAGILITY  OF  PHONE  SYSTEMS  –  9/11  AND  7/7  

•  WILL  THERE  BE  FURTHER  ATTACKS?  9/11,  7/7  AND  AIRLINES  PLOT.  

THE UK IEM MODEL •  ANTICIPATE •  ASSESS •  PREVENT •  PREPARE •  RESPOND •  RECOVER

But  does  our  training  and  exercising  actually  address  all  of  these?    Is  there  a  model  that  does?  

“If it is broken …”

Hanover Seminars Peter Clarke Malcolm Baker Philip Hannah

Hanover Seminars

Building Resilience

•  Horizon scanning

•  Gap analysis

•  Functional analysis

•  Stakeholder analysis

•  Relationships

•  Trust & confidence

•  Proven methodology

Co-ordination of Activity

Like a parachute …..…

… the mind only works when

it is open

Many heads are better than one …

… a comprehensive approach to reduce threats, vulnerability and risks.

strategic overview

Hanover Seminars Peter Clarke Malcolm Baker Philip Hannah

How does it work? What does it look like?

strategic overview

“twin tracks”

tactical & operational

focus

deep dive

value of wargaming

transparency

How much are you leaving to chance?