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Cascade® Measurement System- Keys to Reliable Knowledge -

This report provides a detailed description of the Cascade® Measurement System (Cascade®), an exclusive and proprietary research method, offered by Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. The report contains information on: (a) uses of the system, (b) the Cascade® contribution to the field of survey research, (c) Cascade® research approaches, (d) the method’s mathematical and theoretical foundations, (e) and reliability measures. References and testimonials also are provided.

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The Cascade® Measurement System (Cascade®)- Keys to Reliable Knowledge -

Table of Contents PageTYPICAL RESULTS ……………………………………………………………………………..

4Research Applications …………………………………………………………….. 4

HEB Grocery …………………………………………………………………. 4 House Ear Institute……………………………………………………….. 4

James J. Blanchard ……………………………………………………….. 4American Lumenetics Corporation ……………………………….. 4

Health Maintenance Organization …………………………………. 4Nation of Israel ………………………………………………………….....

4New York State Department of Energy …………………………. 5Silicon Valley Manufacturer ……………………………………………. 5Community Crime Prevention Organization …………………. 5Michigan United Conservation Club ………………………………… 5California Credit Union …………………………………………………… 5

Employee Opinion Studies ……………………………………………………….. 6User Comments ………………………………………………………………….......6

HEB Grocery …………………………………………………………………… 7 House Ear Institute…………………………………………………………. 7 Coakley Heagerty Companies ……………………………………….. 7

Xerox ……………………………………………………………………........... 7

CommonWealth Central Credit Union …………………………….. 7McClintock Metal Fabricators …………………………………………… 7Hill and Knowlton ………………………………………………………...... 7HomeComputer Software ………………………………………………...

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ABOUT MARKETING & MARKET RESEARCH ………………………………………….. 8Market Research

………………………………………………………………........... 9Marketing Communications Research ………………………………………….

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SURVEY RESEARCH ………………………………………………………………………………… 9

Straw Polls ………………………………………………………………………………….. 9

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Sampling………………………………………………………………………………………. 11

Message Strategies ……………………………………………………………………. 11

Cascade® RESEARCH APPROACHES …………………………………………………….. 12

Open-Ended Questions ……………………………………………………………….. 12

Unbounded Fractionation Methods ……………………………………………...13Metric Multidimensional Scales ……………………………………………….....13

Four Research Advantages ……………………………………………....14

Underlying Relationships …………………………………………………..14

MATHEMATICAL & THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS ……………………………….. 14Measurement Theory

………………………………………………………………….. 17Real Numbers

…………………………………………………………………… 17Change Over Time ……………………………………………………………

18A Practical Research Tool ……………………………………………… 18Subjective Magnitude …………………………………………………... 18Multidimensional Space …………………………………………………

18A Diffusion of Innovation Model ……………………………………………… 20

Risk Traits ……………………………………………………………………… 20

The Diffusion S-Curve …………………………………………………… 20

EXAMINING HUMAN ATTITUDES ……………………………………………………….. 22

CASCADE® COMMUNICATION AUDIT RESULTS & DISCUSSIONS …… 22

CORPORATE CAPACITY ………………………………………………………………………. 24

CORPORATE EXPERIENCE ……………………………………………………….. 25

Partial Client Roster ………………………………………………………………….. 25

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TESTIMONIALS …………………………………………………………………………………….. 27

SUMMARY ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 28

CITATIONS……………………………………………………………………………………………. 28

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The Cascade® Measurement System (Cascade®)- Keys to Reliable Knowledge -

Cascade® is a proprietary behavioral, market research, and marketing communications research method, developed by Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. It is the world’s most accurate and advanced system for measuring human opinions and attitudes.

Typical Results Cascade® has been used – successfully – in a variety of different ways

by many satisfied clients.

Research Applications Here are a few specific examples of instances in which Cascade® has

provided benefits to specific clients:

HEB commissioned a Cascade® study to improve customer use and loyalty to its pharmacies and increased prescription fills and customer usage and revenues within 6 months.

The House Ear Institute used Cascade® to determine what message platform would best reach young adults about the importance of protecting their hearing from noise-induced hearing loss. Awareness of the issue and attitudes about self-care improved 49% in 6 months. Use of HEI’s educational website about hearing protection increased 48% in 6 months.

James J. Blanchard (the former governor of Michigan) commissioned a Cascade® study to outline the key message strategy for his congressional campaign and secured his election.

American Lumenetics Corporation, a California energy management firm, developed its entire marketing strategy around the message themes generated in a Cascade® study and reduced its sales cycle by eight months (from six months above the industry average to two months below).

Cascade® research was used by a Health Maintenance

Organization to achieve targeted membership growth goals, with results that helped attain the five-year objective in less than six months.

The Nation of Israel based a public relations campaign,

promoting the increased use of its beaches, on Cascade® results.

The New York State Department of Energy identified key themes for an effective energy communication campaign.

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A Silicon Valley Manufacturer of semiconductor equipment recaptured a leadership position in its industry by adopting the marketing strategies suggested by detailed Cascade® results.

A Community Crime Prevention Organization used Cascade® to develop a program which led to marked decreases in reported crimes in Buffalo, New York, over the first six months.

The Michigan United Conservation Club did a one-time study to develop campaign themes which achieved electoral passage of bottle bill legislation in their state.

A large California Credit Union surveyed 500 of its members, with a Cascade® instrument, to develop a marketing program which led to substantial increases in the use of the complete array of financial services offered by the organization.

Cascade® also has been used in strategic campaigns by Intuit, Ford Motor Company, Coca Cola Bottling, Upjohn, L’Eggs Brand Hosiery, NASA, Shedd’s Peanut Butter, Midas Muffler, General Electric Company, Pacific Northwest Bell, Culler Scientific Systems, Leasametric, and Volkswagen of America. Intuit, Apple Computer, Steelcase, Intel, IBM, Philips, Chrysler/Daimler, BioReliance, Asyst Technologies, National Semiconductor, California & Hawaiian Sugar, Geothermal Food Processors, TeraData/NCR/AT&T, House Ear Institute (HEI), HEB Grocery, San Jose Ballet, Hill and Knowlton, Modesto City Hospital, Outsource Group, Pacific Western Bank, Infant Toddler Day Care Center, Spectra-Physics, Sun Microsystems, Westinghouse Electric, and many other corporations.

Cascade® research can measure the most miniscule of changes and differences in a client’s relevant market.

Employee Opinion StudiesApplications are not confined to external market research studies. The

precision and accuracy of Cascade® methods can be applied – with equal effectiveness – to in-house organizational development research.

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By coupling a custom-design analysis with a standardized Cascade® comparative assessment approach, this procedure studies a client’s specific concerns and strengths in relationship to directions, patterns, and other trends.

Cascade® values will identify – precisely – where the organization stands; what action plans should be implemented; and, most crucially, on what schedule. No other analytical approach can do this with anywhere near the same levels of accuracy in the ways Cascade® can.

The program removes the guesswork from action planning. Results from the Cascade® analytical process enable a client to

establish priorities and step up to the challenges which the company faces. Exclusive modeling methods enable the client to see the best possible pathway to action; they reveal what must be done to improve productivity and organizational effectiveness.

The original application of Cascade®, within General Electric Corporation, was for a 1982 organizational design study. As a result of this work, three members of Dr. Hamlin’s Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. staff received the top award of the International Communication Association (ICA) for that year’s leading contribution to organizational research as well as an award from General Electric corporation for most significant contribution to organizational performance.

Manufacturers, hospitals, multi-national corporations, consumer food processors, and financial institutions are among the many satisfied users of this specific Cascade® program.

User CommentsHere are excerpts from letters which have been sent to Hamlin

Harkins, Ltd. by users of the Cascade® method: HEB: “Cascade® research is a great marketing investment.

This proprietary method gives keener insights into customers’ thoughts. But it goes beyond better-honed customer knowledge. It provides approaches you can really implement to create the best message – even the best language to use – for highly effective, target audience positioning and communications. I prefer Cascade® over other research approaches because it gives you a holistic perspective – marketing, human resources and services

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combined, telling you where you are in the market, where you need to be, and the best approach for getting to that point for best results. Highest marks!”

House Ear Institute: “We were very impressed with the Cascade® method. It is highly comprehensive, thorough and takes market research information a step beyond what more traditional methods can provide. It was highly recommended to us as a proven and powerful research tool, and it lived up to all of our expectation and more. It is ideal for getting to the heart of consumer choices, behavior and lifestyle patterns. It is certainly a top choice for our market research purposes.”

The Coakley Heagerty Companies: “I have been very pleased with the ability of Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. to provide innovative research methods which have resulted in cost-effective solutions to client problems.”

Xerox: Without any qualification whatsoever, I would recommend Cascade® (for either employee opinion surveys, communication audits, or market research) to anyone who wants to learn the real state of attitudes which affect their organization.

CommonWealth Central Credit Union: “We were very pleased with the presentation of the results, explained so concisely and thoroughly at our planning conference. It is the consensus of the Board and Management that this survey was very crucial in this stage of the credit union’s growth. It seems the value of research can never be overestimated.”

McClintock Metal Fabricators: “I know I speak for the entire McClintock team in saying that your advanced research methodologies, exemplified by the Cascade® Measurement System and the professionalism of your people, has been a crucial element in setting the strategic direction of our company.”

Hill and Knowlton: “Repeatedly, your Cascade® system has shown us the keys to development of creative and efficient public relations campaigns. Because your methods provide such a clear path to effective action, we have saved considerable time and effort – for both ourselves and our clients – in avoiding false starts and unproductive message strategies.”

HomeComputer Software: “You displayed a clear-cut, no-nonsense evaluation that reflects a genuine understanding of the software industry. Your research helped us avoid entering a marketplace that would not have been profitable.”

About Marketing & Market ResearchIn many engineering-oriented firms, especially in Silicon Valley, where

Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. works with technology companies, “marketing” often is

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a term which is either little understood or misunderstood. The most common error involves using the term interchangeably with “sales,” both conceptually and in actual practice. It is an error which can have disastrous consequences in the marketplace.

Marketing and sales are not the same thing!They are, of course, integrally related. Marketing is a strategic activity;

sales is tactical. The purpose of marketing is two-fold: (1) to maximize sales potential and (2) to lower the cost of actual sales.

Strong analogies can be drawn with “development engineering” and “manufacturing” because most individuals readily will acknowledge these are not the same thing either. There are many parallels between “development engineering” and “marketing” and between “manufacturing” and “sales.” In the same way it is virtually impossible to manufacture a quality product unless a solid engineering effort has come first, it is equally difficult to conduct a cost-efficient sales program until a good marketing program provides the sales force with the necessary tools and information to do their job.

Another parallel involves the reality that – to be effective – both “development engineering” and “marketing” must be preceded by accurate research.

In technology areas, this research usually is called “applied research;” for marketing, the terms are “market research” and “marketing communications research.”

Market ResearchStudies in this area define the client’s relevant market, and position

within this market. They identify potential prospects, the types of individuals who make purchase decisions, the competition, and all important competitive factors.

Such information provides the foundation for marketing communication research.

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Marketing Communication ResearchStrong market research will identify who in a prospect firm makes the

buying decisions; good marketing communication research, such as Cascade®, will tell the client how to get them to buy!

It is a well-known that such decisions, almost never, are rational ones (e.g., “it was the lowest price”). For virtually every product in existence, research repeatedly shows that people buy things on the basis of a set of multiple, interrelated elements which are both emotional and ‘practical.’

This complex of factors which influence buying decisions is dynamic. Environmental influences can dramatically, or subtly, influence buying

patterns for a specific product. Cascade® can identify the key factors that profile the buyer mindset.

The method makes it possible for users to implement responsive marketing programs, i.e., ones which (a) drastically reduce the time required to close and secure sales, and (b) detect and address changes in customer expectations in a timely, effective fashion.

Cascade® is marketing communications research at its best. Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. is one of three research firms in the world which

uses unbounded fractionation methods and metric multidimensional scales for marketing communications research. These techniques represent the third major revolution in the half-century history of professional survey research.

Survey ResearchPrior to the 1930s, attitudinal research was pretty much of a catch-as-

catch-can proposition. To the extent that it was done at all, practitioners simply went out and

asked a few people what they thought about a specific subject. Then, they acted on the information that was given them.

Unsurprisingly, such actions seldom led to the desired results.

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Straw PollsThe first sprinkling of professionalism in survey research came, in the

early 1930s, when some researchers figured out their results would be more reliable if they asked a lot of people their opinions, instead of just a few.

These data collection methods are called “straw polls.” While they have some merit, frequently they are inaccurate because they are unsystematic and do not take into account various personal and demographic considerations which, typically, are more important than sheer numbers.

The classic case of thundering failure in straw polling was the famous Literary Digest survey of the 1936 presidential election. The publication, which at that time was one of the most prestigious in the U.S., conducted a telephone poll among thousands of voters throughout the country.

Results overwhelmingly indicated that Alfred M. Landon, the Republican candidate, would trounce the Democratic incumbent, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, in the general election. The magazine predicted flatly that this would happen.

They hardly could have been more wrong. When the electoral votes were tallied, Roosevelt had 523; the two

states which Landon carried (Maine and Vermont) were worth 8. How could the magazine have been so far off? Their mistake, of course, was in not understanding that professional survey research requires a whole lot more than the involvement of lots and lots of people.

The Literary Digest poll was conducted over the telephone, at a time when relatively few persons could afford such a luxury. During the depression years, the only individuals likely to have phones were wealthy; they also were likely to be traditional Republican voters. Indeed, these people undoubtedly did vote for Alf Landon, but the vast majority of the American electorate did not.

The reputation of the Literary Digest was so tarnished by this fiasco that the magazine soon went out of business.

SamplingRight after World War II, most of the familiar names in opinion polling

(e.g., Gallup, Crosley, Roper, Hooper, and Nielson) earned their fame by

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developing scientific sampling concepts which greatly reduced the cost – and, more importantly, increased the accuracy – of marketing research.

These individuals showed it was more important to select the correct individuals to be surveyed than to select a lot of individuals. In other words, if the market research effort is done correctly, the marketing communications research can be made considerably more cost effective. The two go hand in hand.

Message StrategiesThis is the area which puts Cascade® on the crest of the wave which

represents the third major revolution in survey research. Constructed on the theoretical foundation provided by MIT

mathematician Warren S. Torgerson (1958), Cascade® demonstrates – with extraordinary reliability – the capability to measure human attitudes with more precision than any other survey system. Cascade® can select, from a myriad of potential features, the two or three concepts which create the strongest buyer attraction. Because it is based on the real number system, Cascade® can attain highly-reliable results from relatively small sample frames – a major plus in keeping costs down.

Until the late 1970s, virtually any survey research firm could tell clients where they stood on a specific issue relative their prospect base. Yet, no one had instruments which – in themselves – uncovered definite strategies for improving their position with such key audiences.

The Cascade® research approach is capable of providing this valuable information.

Cascade® Research ApproachesCascade® is a proprietary attitudinal research method. Offered by

staff professionals at Hamlin Harkins, Ltd., a full-service management consulting firm based in California, Cascade® has been used – by a wide array of organizations – to identify key messages strategies and other variables which are crucial to successful marketing efforts.

Most Cascade® instruments combine open-ended question, unbounded fractionation methods, and metric multidimensional scales.

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Open-Ended QuestionsSurvey research should include open-ended questions – with

associated second-level probes – to identify those key rational and emotional concepts which are important to respondents.

Only rarely can all of the relevant variables be generated in client meetings because those individuals who develop, manufacture, and market products and services have a perspective which is bound to differ from that of their potential customers.

Clients inevitably are committed to their specific product or service; psychologically and emotionally, they already have “bought.” Their primary interest, obviously, should be in the opinions of those prospects who do not have that commitment.

By using open-ended questions and probes, researchers invariably uncover new and important concepts, themes, and variables which – prior to the study – had received scant attention, at best. This information is extremely valuable in developing marketing campaigns which will increase the congruence between a client product or service and the psychological profile of a typical prospect.

Unbounded Fractionation MethodsBoth accuracy and the ability to measure change over time are

founded on the avoidance of any form of traditionally bound scales (e.g., percentages, one-to-ten, always-sometimes-never, very good-good-fair-poor-very poor).

These traditional scales have major limitations in any important research study because they only have the capability to yield broad trend data. Finite distinctions between concepts cannot be made. Moreover, they are not useful in over time studies because they cannot uncover important shifts in attitudes among those respondents who feel most strongly about a given subject.

With Cascade®, ratio scales assign “0” as the value for “total lack of” and “10” as the value for “average.” These measures invariably lead to a wider range of answers than those more commonly used for market research.

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Almost always, answers are more thoughtfully-considered and demonstrate higher reliability quotients.

An additional advantage to these scaling procedures is the inherent ability they provide for linking answers (through a variety of correlation procedures) to reveal relationships among all variables which influence a purchase decision. This feature is particularly valuable in developing marketing and other action plans in response to the survey results.

It also makes it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of new programs in terms of actual sales (i.e., by linking concepts to results, over time).

Metric Multidimensional ScalesThese measures form the base for Cascade®/Peaks: the most

sophisticated and powerful component of the overall Cascade® Measurement System.

Cascade®/Peaks is non-standardized factor analysis. Based on a matrix of dissimilarities among concepts, the sample space

is attained by having respondents make n(n-1)/2 paired comparison estimates (where n = the number of concepts) with ratio scaling procedures.

Respondents are given a convenient “rod S” (Einstein, 1961) that is a specified distance between a criterion pair. The usual form of this technique is: “If x and y are p peaks apart, how far apart are concept a and concept b?” A matrix of mean distances among all concepts is generated by the aggregation of these distance estimates for the entire sample.

Results form a distance means matrix. Cascade®/Peaks converts these data to a series of loadings on a limited number of dimensions. The decomposition is accomplished by transforming the distance means matrix to a scalar products one with origin at the distribution centroid. Rotation of the spaces abut the centroid establishes a least-squares best fit.

Four Research Advantages. The basic benefits of the Cascade®/Peaks approach are: (1) links among a set of elements can be measured; (2) measures can be taken, essentially simultaneously, across an entire set of sample elements; (3) consensual measures, on a societal level, can specify the degree of change; and (4) unbounded fractionation methods can provide accurate measures of change at different times.

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Underlying Relationships. An assumption of such models is that the underlying relationship among the variables is linear and additive.

Extreme values (permissible in unbounded fractionation scaling) often lead to distribution curves which exhibit large positive skews, thus violating this basic assumption. In such cases, data must be transformed to state relationships in linear form. A log10 transformation is the most widely used.

Mathematical & Theoretical Foundations Robinson (1969) provides a serviceable statement which both defines

research, and discusses the role it plays in human affairs: In simplest terms, the word research sums up the methods used to obtain reliable knowledge. Thus, in a carefully conducted scientific research project – be it in chemistry or psychology – the scientist undertakes a systematic effort to learn something new, and, at the same time, to assure himself that his information is not spurious. [Emphasis added.]

Rarely is the quest for reliable knowledge relative to marketplace opinions and attitudes characterized by anything that can be called “a systematic effort to learn something new.” More typically, organizations (when they commission market research or marketing communications research efforts, at all) are content to live with broad trend data that can be gleaned from antiquated human measurement systems which are more than a half-century old.

Better methods have been available for more than 30 years. Any system of behavioral research demands the use of some form of

scaling. Stevens (1951) identifies four unidimensional scales: (1) nominal, (2)

ordinal, (3) interval, and (4) ratio. The first of these is not really a scale at all; it involves the arbitrary assignment of numbers to individuals (as with the numbers assigned to members of an athletic team’s roster).

In his classic work on the subject, Torgerson points out that “the characteristics of order, distance, and origin” define the remaining three scales.

Because ordinal scales only can be arranged in serial order with respect to a given property, they are not particularly useful for social science

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research. (Despite this, the vast majority of today’s researchers still rely exclusively on these antiquated methods.)

With interval scales, differences between numbers “reflect the sizes of the corresponding distances . . . the numbers are determined to within a linear transformation of the form y = ax + b, where a is any positive number, and b is any finite number whatsoever.”

Ratio scales (i.e., interval scales with a true zero) universally are considered the most accurate of the four because when “we add the determination in some sense of a unique natural origin to the requirements of the interval scale, we find that only one number may be assigned arbitrarily” and “the numbers are determined to within a linear transformation of the form y = ax, where a is any positive number.”

Any “systematic effort to learn something new” also demands attention to and analysis of the variety of potential responses. According to Danes and Woelfel (1975), a goal of the measurement process is to create a scale which will maximize the potential variance in the magnitude of a measured attribute.

Virtually all serious psychometric theoreticians would agree the best system for measuring human phenomena couple reliable scales with procedures which can yield a maximal range of human responses.

Thus, if a group of observers measure a set of stimuli, when they take a second measurement, the variances should be the same. For any single stimulus, however, the goal of the measurement process is for the different observers to agree on the precise magnitude of an attribute processed by the stimulus and, consequently, to limit the variance about the mean response.

For market research and marketing communications research, many different individual stimuli can be measured by a single question. An example of such an inquiry would be: “How much information on the software industry do you get from trade publications?”

This could evoke a variety of responses. There are many trade publications and, ideally, the measures would discriminate – with precision – their differences in the amounts of information that they make available to industry personnel.

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Therefore, the criterion for selection of a measurement system to observe marketplace communication should be one that yields the most variance and exhibits the greatest reliability. The direct magnitude estimate form of fractionation scales, originally described by Torgerson, does maximize the potential for variance; and its reliability in marketplace settings can be assessed with considerable precision.

Measurement TheoryThe process of measurement essentially involves setting (in a one-to-

one correspondence) the magnitude or quantity of some attribute possessed by a set of stimuli with a set of real numbers.

Real Numbers. The real number system has five properties which are important to the measurement process: the three mentioned earlier – (1) order, (2) distance, (3) and a true zero point – and (4) unboundedness, and (5) infinite density . . . i.e., between any two values, a third always can be placed.

Cascade® is the Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. response to an adamant belief that accurate measurement of marketing and organizational variables demands the selection of a measurement system which has all five properties because the tools of mathematics can be fully applied to the gathered data.

When choosing a measurement system that does not meet these specifications, the researcher is required to set aside certain assumptions before performing any mathematical operations.

Division, for example, requires an absolute zero point. Without it, ratios are meaningless.

Most opinion measurement systems use Likert-type items to measure attitude patterns.

Such bounded, limited-point, fixed-choice scales ordinarily meet only the first requirement (i.e., order) of the real number system. At best, they may have interval properties. Measurement precision is severely restricted.

Many large companies, for example, participate annually in a national opinion survey which allegedly measures employee morale.

In a rough sense, it does.

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Employees use five- and seven-point Likert scales to answer various questions regarding their feelings about aspects of their work.

These kinds of data carry enormous inherent handicaps. Because measurement depends on so few points, analysis and interpretation are confined strictly to aggregate, general trends. There is nothing wrong with having such information, as long as it is understood that it isn’t particularly useful. (And it is almost criminal when, as sometimes happens, a supervisor gets removed form the job because of a low ranking on this type of “morale survey.”)

Worse yet, these types of surveys prove unable to measure change across time periods. No bound scale can. For instance, employee who assigned a top-of-the-range rating to a supervisor in 1986 have no way of improving this score in 1987 – even if they perceive the supervisory performance as three times better than 1986.

Change Over Time. Woelfel and Fink (1980) emphasize the importance of over time measurement in the analysis of marketplace and corporate cultures when they state “that culture is a process, that is, a time-dependent structure, and it is this time-dependent structure which society tries to maintain.”

When instruments discriminate among only five different values, they build a 20 percent error into the measurement process. Because of their form, they are incapable of precision greater than 80 percent accuracy. When coupled with measurement error (i.e., assigning the stimulus to the wrong category) and unreliability, these measures may be further limited in validity.

Consequently, any recommendations based on their results are quite likely to be erroneous and invalid.

A Practical Research Tool. Cascade® is designed as a practical research tool which circumvents the shortcomings of such Likert-type instruments. Its development owes an enormous debt to the theoretical foundations provided by Torgerson, especially with respect to two specific ratio measurement concepts he defined: (1) fractionation method and (2) multidimensional scales. When these theoretical notions are mapped to Barnett’s (1978) associational model for the diffusion of innovation, a precise

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and effective method for both measuring – and predicting – change across time periods is generated.

Subjective Magnitude. The fundamental assumption which underlies fractionation methods is that respondents accurately can determine differences between two subjective magnitudes. Torgerson explains:

. . . if it is assumed for the moment that the subject is actually capable of carrying out the instructions, it is easy to see that the problems concerned with obtaining a linear scale which is referred to a rational origin, i.e., a ratio scale, are solved. For if the sense ratios among a series of stimuli are known, the assignment of a set of numbers to the stimuli which bear the same ratios to one another is straightforward. These numbers are then determined to within a linear transformation of the type y = ax.

Consequently, a researcher can specify a unit by arbitrarily assigning a value to a single stimulus in order to ascertain values for all other stimuli.

Multidimensional Space. Torgerson says that with multidimensional scaling “the notion of a single, unidimensional, underlying continuum is replaced by the notion of an underlying multidimensional space.”

As a starting point, Torgerson uses a Euclidean model (“the only one that has been considered at all seriously”) as the basic spatial model for multidimensional procedure.

Based on Torgerson’s ideas, the Galileo system of measurement (Gillham and Woelfel, 1977) was developed by a team of researchers at Michigan State University.

According to Wigand and Barnett (1976), marketing and corporate cultures can be measured through the use of Galileo metric multidimensional measures. The method forms a distance means matrix and converts these data to a series of loadings on a limited number of dimensions.

As with Cascade®/Peaks, the decomposition is accomplished by transforming the distance means matrix to a scalar products one with origin

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at the distribution centroid. Rotation of the spaces about the centroid establishes a least-squares best fit.

Once this is done, change over time is determined through subtraction of the coordinates and is expressed as velocities. [See the works of Dr. George Barnett for mathematical formulae used.]

Cascade®/Peaks has several parallels with the Galileo system. Barnett has demonstrated such multidimensional measures provide a

solid and sophisticated foundation for analyzing change through diffusion of innovation within cultures.

A Diffusion of Innovation ModelRogers (1983), probably the leading scholar in this particular discipline,

offers this definitional assistance.

Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system. It is a special type of communication, in that the messages are concerned with new ideas. Communication is a process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach a mutual understanding. This definition implies that communication is a process of convergence (or divergence) as two or more individuals exchange information in order to move toward each other (or apart) in the meanings that they ascribe to certain events.

Using a Y = f(x) conceptualization of theory (i.e., a dependent variable, Y, is a function, f, of an independent variable, X), cultural acceptance and adoption of change is a function of the personal characteristics of individuals in a social system (e.g., potential prospects in a specific industry).

Risk Traits. Any innovation, or change, is assumed to have these five risk traits: (1) relative advantage to a potential adopter, (2) compatibility on a homophily-heterphily continuum, (3) some degree of complexity, (4) the potential to be tried, and (5) a level of observability.

The less risk associated with these attributes, the greater the probability of adoption, according to Rogers with Shoemaker (1971). These authors have synthesized more than 1200 separate diffusion studies into 103

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generalizations (e.g., “early adopters are more likely to belong to well integrated systems than are later adopters”).

Most of the early studies (i.e., from the thirties and forties) which they summarize are from among the hundreds of rural sociological diffusion studies on the adoption practices of farmers living in small, well-defined communities involved with agricultural innovations such as the sulky plow and hybrid seed corn.

Later studies investigate such things as a fluoridation education campaign, contraception in Latin America, and television ownership, Data collected show an extremely consistent pattern for a wide variety of innovations in many different societies.

The Diffusion S-Curve. Displayed graphically (by plotting a cumulative number of adopters against time), Barnett describes this S-curve:

. . . initially, the rate is very slow and represented by a small positive slope; then, the rate increases exponentially until about half of the potential adopters have modified their conceptions of the innovation. At this point, the slope should peak at about 1.0. In the next stage, cultural change continues – but at a decreasing rate. Although still positive, the slope approaches zero and becomes asymptotic with the number of potential adopters . . .

For another view of this curve, when the frequency of social system members (e.g., prospective customers) who adopt an innovation is plotted across time periods, an approximately normal curve usually will result. Typically, several persons adopt very early, several very late, and most fall in between.

A central thrust of diffusion research has been to use the fundamental statistical tools of mean standard deviation to slice this essentially normal curve into five easy pieces as a way of categorizing members of the social system.

For many years, attempts to mathematically define the diffusion curve largely failed because of problems caused by the necessity of binary adoption, assumptions of an infinite population, lack of patterned interpersonal networks, and assumptions of equality in mass media usage.

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To arrive at a valid predictive model, Barnett placed limits, three standard deviations from the mean, on a curve normally distributed about the mean.

With this, problem caused by the assumption of an infinite population are circumvented by limiting the analysis to 99 percent of a social system’s population.

In other words, relatively few major (i.e., ones worth measuring) cultural changes in a marketplace are adopted by 100 percent of the people. Harkins (1981) has used this S-curve to demonstrate fundamental limits to professional communication processes and effects.

Examining Human Attitudes Cascade® is a proprietary method for examining human attitudes in

response to a measurement theory based on real numbers. Fractionation methods and multidimensional scales are configured to

provide the most precise measures of an associational diffusion of innovation model, a perspective that virtually all change-oriented clients demand.

Cascade® is the basic Hamlin Harkins, Ltd., Corp. method for examining human attitudes in any context (e.g., marketing studies, employee opinion surveys).

Cascade® Communication Audit Results & Discussion The Cascade® Communicaton Audit (Hamlin and Harkins, 1985) is a

specific application of Cascade®. To date, it has been administered within more than sixty organizations,

which span a range from profit-making to not-for-profit, from public sector to private, from successful to troubled.

While Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. is constrained by contractual arrangements with these clients from identifying them, by name, and from publishing specific results or recommendations, it is possible to show the ways in which this measurement system provides enhanced reliability with increased variance.

For example, Cronbach’s alpha (1948, 1958) for the mean of five organizations (as originally reported by Barnett, Hamlin, and Danowski, 1982)

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for each of the groups of items appears below. These are compared with reliability coefficients of the ICA Audit, as reported by Goldhaber and Rogers (1979).

Cascade® ICAInformation Received – Actual .862 .882Information Received – Ideal .918 .852Information Sources - Actual .798 .699Information Sources – Ideal .838 .756Organizational Outcomes .862 .876

In each case, the N of items is comparable. Next, scale variances that Goldhaber and Rogers report for the ICA

procedures are compared with the obtained variances from the Cascade® Communication Audit. Variances are multiplied by the reliabilities to demonstrate differences in amount of reliable variance between the two procedures.

Cascade® Variance X AlphaInformation Received – Actual 45,326.74 39,074.24Information Received – Ideal 75,078.55 68,922.11Information Sources – Actual 45,514.10 36,320.25Information Sources – Ideal 57,289.53 48,008.62Organizational Outcomes 57,773.66 49,800.90

ICA Variance X AlphaInformation Received – Actual 18.94 16.71Information Received – Ideal 11.74 10.00Information Sources – Actual 12.93 9.04Information Sources – Ideal 10.08 7.62Organizational Outcomes 16.86 14.77

These results demonstrate the procedures used in Cascade® are capable of obtaining more reliable variance than the traditional methodologies demonstrated by the ICA Audit.

Cascade® is flexible. As a prime tool, designed to make positive contributions toward the

marketing and organizational design goals of Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. clients, it accepts alterations and adjustments which enable researchers to investigate – with increased precision – client-specific situations.

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Cascade® works because it takes advantage of an advanced calculus which forms a solid foundation for sound communication and mathematical theory. It is sensitive to the requirements of variance and statistical reliability; it is considerate of the concerns of contingency opinion.

In describing the theoretical approaches and uses of a specific Cascade® study, one client (Carlton, 1983) wrote:

Results are applied to the messages emphasized in our employee communication efforts, our management and non-management training programs, organizational design approaches, and facility arrangements – in short, every aspect of our business. In this way, by continually monitoring the opinions of our people – and by closely tracking the relationship with productivity and financial goals – we know precisely which programs work and which do not.

It’s a cybernetic system that enables us to makes alterations as we go along. And we’re convinced it enables us to make the best possible use of our most treasured resource - our people.

Cascade® provides clients with the reliable knowledge they need to navigate change in ways that will enable their organizations to meet their overall objectives.

Corporate Capacity

Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. is a full-service management consulting organization, with specific expertise in strategic market research and marketing communications. The company has the corporate capacity to actualize research projects of virtually any size and scope.

In addition to it’s California office, the firm has affiliate partners who are licensed to sell Cascade® services. These include:

Moreland Associates (www.moreland.com), California,Donley Townsend Associates (www.donleytownsend.com) Texas, andIntrabond Corporation (www.intrabond.com) Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Corporate Experience

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http://www.intrabond.com/

http://www.donleytownsend.com/

http://www.moreland.com/


Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. has considerable experience in conducting Cascade® attitude research studies. Because of the nature of these assignments, we are contractually constrained from discussing any details associated with these projects.

We are authorized, however, to provide individual references and client listings. Partial Client Roster

The following is a partial listing of clients who have been served by Hamlin Harkins, Ltd.

Abbott Laboratories American Electronics Association American Cancer Society American Lumenetics Corporation Apple Computer Asyst Technologies Atalla Corporation AT&T At Your Door! Baltic Consolidated Gold Mines Bernard Hodes Advertising Beyond War Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. Cadcor, Inc. California & Hawaiian Sugar Co. California School Personnel Commissioners Assoc. CanCom Industries Central Illinois Power Co. Celebrity Sofware Coakley Heagerty Companies, Ltd. Commercial Scientific Corporation Commonwealth Central Credit Union Consolidated Freightways Cornell University Costumes Forever! Crime Solver Party Games Cuenca & Associates Insurance Culler Scientific Systems Cybernex Corpoation Dance Technology Dancer Fitzgerald Sample DecisionSource, Inc. Deico Electronics Dysan Corporation Electronics Association of California Edgecomb Corporation EOS Services

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Fairchild Corporation FMC Full Spectrum Productions General Electric Company Gilroy Foods Haas Enterprises HEB Hill and Knowlton House Ear Institute HomeComputer Software IBM IEEE Professional Communication Society Indonesia PT Hasfarm Dian Konsultan Interchange International Intermarkt AG Jared Ferrell & Associates Kummer & Associates Leasametric, In. Lockheed Missiles & Space Co. Madcad, Ltd. MarketTools Market Research Group of Seattle Maxtor Corporation McClintock Metal Fabricators McFadzean, Durgan & Peterson, Ltd. MicroData Corporation MIS Information Services Mission Elevator Company Modesto City Hospital Monsanto Electronic Materials Corporation Moore & Associates Morena Cosmetics MsBs, Inc. National Advanced Systems NBI, Inc. Neisar, Moody, Hill, Kregstein & Hamilton Nortronics Company Oral Hygeine Treatments, Inc. Pacific Northwest Bell Pacific Telesis Pevco Portola Valley Ranch Presidio of San Francisco Quazon Corporation Ridge Computer Corporation Rose Sunshades, Inc. Retired Senior Volunteer Program SAMI-D2 Enterprises, Inc. Schocal, Inc. Sentry Schlumberger

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Shugart Associates Sodaco SRL, Milano, Italia Source One Financial Services Square One Computer St. Martin de Tours Church Stearns Computer Systems SunWind, Ltd. Surferboy Productions Texaco Thomas Patti, Sculpture, Inc. Transamerica Deleval Telebit Corporation Televerket Swedish Telecom Tycer-Fultz-Bellack United Way of Santa Clara County University of San Francisco Upjohn Vasona Corporation Vitalink Communications Corporation Volkswagon of America Walls Alive, Etc. Web Feat Artist Management Westinghouse Electric Corporation Xerox Zentec

Testimonials

Please see our corporate website for specific client testimonials or

contact usabout individual references.

Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. provides a full-range of consulting services for: market research and analysis, strategic planning, computer and communications technology, press relations, communication production services, campaign development, organizational development, human resource planning, training and development, and venture counseling and fund development.

Our wide range of skills, and the multi-faceted talents of our staff, put us in a unique position to handle complex projects which involve a variety of interrelated variables.

Thus, the company is in a position to work closely with clients in the actual implementation of any programs or projects suggested by the results of Cascade® research.

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Summary Cascade® is the most advanced system for measuring human

attitudes and predicting future behavior. It has been used for a variety of applications (e.g., market research,

marketing communications research, employee opinion surveys, and communication audits) to provide clients of Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. with the most accurate and reliable knowledge on which to base strategic plans and tactical operations.

Citations Barnett, G.A. “An Associational Model for the Diffusion of Complex

Innovations.” Paper presented to the International Communication Association. Chicago. April 1978.

Barnett, G.A. & Hamlin, D.M. & Danowski, J.A. “The Use of Fractionation Scales for Communication Audits” in Communication Yearbook 5 (Burgoon, M., ed.) New Brunswick, New Jersey: Transaction Books. 1982.

Carlton, C. “New Approaches to Managing the Workforce.” Discover. July 1983.

Chronbach, L.J. “Response Sets and Test Validity.” Educational and Psychological Measurement, 6. 1946.

Chronbach, L.J. “Proposals Leading to the Analytic Treatment of Social Perception Scores,” in Person Perception and Interpersonal Behavior (Taguiri, R. & Petrullo, L., eds.). Stanford, California: Stanford University Press. 1958.

Danes, J. & Woelfel, J. “An Alternative to the ‘Traditional’ Scaling Paradigm in Mass Communication Research: Multidimensional Reduction of Ratio Judgments of Separation.” Paper presented to the International Communication Association. Chicago. April 1975.

Gillham, J. & Woelfel, J. “The Gallileo System of Measurement: Preliminary Evidence for Precision, Stability, and Equivalence to Traditional Measures.” Human Communication Research. Spring 1977.

Goldhaber, G.M. & Rogers, D.P. Auditing Organizational Communication Systems: The ICA Communication Audit. Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall/Hunt. 1979.

Hamlin, D.M. & Harkins, C. “Cascade® Communication Audit: The Use of Unbounded Fractionation Methods to Measure Corporate

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Culture.” Paper presented to the Western Speech Communication Association. February 1985.

Harkins, C. “Mathematical Considerations in Seeking Fundamental Limits to Professional Communication Processes and Effects.” Proceedings of the IEEE, 69(2). 1981.

Robinson, E.J. Public Relations and Survey Research. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts. 1969.

Rogers, E.M. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: The Free Press. 1983.

Rogers, E.M. with Shoemaker, F.F. Communication of Innovations: A Cross-Cultural Approach. New York: The Free Press. 1971.

Stevens, S.S. “Mathematics, Measurement, and Psychophysics” in Handbook of Experimental Psychology (Stevens, S.S., ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons. 1951.

Torgerson, W.S. Theory and Methods of Scaling. New York: John Wiley & Sons. 1958.

Wigand, R.T. & Barnett, G.A. “Multidimensional Scaling of Cultural Processes: the Case of Mexico, South Africa, and the United States” in International-Intercultural Annual III. Speech Communication Association. 1976.

Woelfel, J. & Fink, E.I. The Measurement of Communication Processes: Galileo Theory and Method. New York: Academic Press. 1980.

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If you are interested in knowing more about Cascade®, or any other service of Hamlin Harkins, Ltd., feel free to contact:

Dr. Donna M. Hamlin

Hamlin Harkins, Ltd. 888-338-4886

We are happy to hear from you!

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