HAMBURG - Start | COMFORT...COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 2 / 14 227,000 people on workdays and...
Transcript of HAMBURG - Start | COMFORT...COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 2 / 14 227,000 people on workdays and...
HAMBURG
TOP-SHOPPING METROPOLIS IS DEVELOPING - BUT ÜBERSEEQUARTIER IS RAISING QUESTIONS
DEZEMBER 2016
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 2 / 14
IN FIGURES Federal state: Hamburg
Inhabitants: 1,787,408
Population development: + 1.4 %
Employees: 912,650
Unemployment rate: 6.9 %
Purchasing power: 109.9
Centrality parameters: 112.2
Relevant shopping centres:
Europa Passage (C), Hanse-Viertel (C), Alstertal- Einkaufszentrum (S), Hamburger Meile (S), Elbe- Einkaufszentrum (S), Billstedt-Center (S), CCB City- Center Bergedorf (S), Phoenix-Center (S), QUARREE Wandsbek-Markt (S), Mercado Altona-Ottensen (S) Harburg Arcaden (S)
C=City S=District P=Outskirts
Hamburg is a city-state and the second largest city in
Germany with a population of almost 1.8 million. It is also one
of the most coveted locations for successful German and
international retailers and for property companies in Germany
and throughout Europe. There are many good reasons why
the city that is described as the “gateway to the world”
achieved an impressive second place for the second time in
succession in the renowned Emerging Trends in Real Estate
Europe 2017 survey (of almost 800 property experts through-
out Europe) which was published at the end of the year by
PwC and ULI.
Hamburg is a property location with a very diversified and
solid economic basis for trade, transport and services, plus
an extremely efficient transport infrastructure. The city has
the third-largest container port in Europe and its port
operations traditionally play an important role. Hamburg is
the undisputed number one place to work among the
northern German cities with a commuter surplus of around
227,000 people on workdays and an unemployment rate that
has now fallen below 7%. Macro-economic productivity (per-
capita GDP) is approximately EUR 59,000, which is one of
the highest figures for cities in Germany and in Europe.
THE CITY'S SIGNIFICANCE AS A RETAIL LOCATION
COMFORT believes that the overall development of
Hamburg’s retail framework has been very positive over
recent years. The city’s retail purchasing power index rating is
now 110 (source: GfK, national average = 100) and it has
experienced significant population growth. In addition to the
city’s own population and potential purchasing power, the
Hamburg retail sector traditionally draws upon a large
catchment area extending into Schleswig-Holstein and Lower
Saxony, where some 1.6 million people live. It therefore
enjoys impressively high potential demand from around
3.4 million consumers.
Hamburg is geographically located on the rivers Elbe and
Alster. It has a stimulating cityscape and atmosphere, as
well as an extensive leisure and lifestyle infrastructure
(sports, museums, concerts, the HafenCity experience),
which make the city a very popular tourist destination. Ham-
burg is now in third place behind New York and London as
one of the world’s most important cities for musical theatre
productions.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Prime retail rents
from 2006 - 2016 in EUR/m²
80-120m² 300-500m²
Source: state statistical offices, GfK GeoMarketing GmbH, Federal
Employment Agency
Source: COMFORT Research & Consulting
0 5 10 15 20 25
Proportion of retail space
in %
Proportion of sales in %
City centre area Hamburg > 1 Mio. Inhabitants
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 3 / 14
CATCHMENT AREA
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Stuttgart
Munich
Cologne
Hamburg
Frankfurt am Main
Düsseldorf
Berlin
Purchasing power Centrality parameters
PURCHASING POWER AND CENTRALITY PARAMETERS
0 50 100 150 200 250
Stuttgart
Munich
Cologne
Hamburg
Frankfurt am Main
Düsseldorf
Berlin
FASHION CENTRALITY
Source: COMFORT – Research & Consulting
Source: GfK GeoMarketing GmbH
Source: COMFORT – Research & Consulting, base map RegioGraph
It is also a port of call for cruise ships (around 170 ships with
approx. 700,000 passengers in 2016) and hosts the
internationally famous “Cruise Days” event every two years
in summer. Last, but not least, the Elbphilharmonie (Elbe
Philharmonic Concert Hall) is finally finished after a years-
long wait. Visitors have been able to access the Plaza
viewing platform since November, and the music
programme is scheduled to begin on the 11th of January with
an opening gala, when the Elbphilharmonie comes to life as
a beacon of culture and urban architecture with global
appeal.
Developments in the tourism sector have been particularly
dynamic and in 2016 the city is expecting to report an all-
time record of more than 13 million overnight stays. This
alone is an indicator of the revenue potential in Hamburg
for inner city retailers and there is no end in sight to the
upward trend, driven by a hotel development boom, with
many projects already completed and ready for opening
and others in the implementation and planning phases.
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 4 / 14
As Hamburg’s appeal and international profile continue to grow, the number of tourists is expected to increase and
make the city even more attractive to retailers, especially international retailers that prefer to expand into other
countries visited by their domestic customers. It is no coincidence that the Scandinavian brands Stadium, Clas
Ohlson and Illums Bolighus selected Hamburg as their first “port of call” in their international expansion strategies.
The Turkish fashion label Koton has also opened its first German store on Hamburg’s Spitalerstrasse last week on
December, 16th. As a result of these favourable relevant performance parameters, Hamburg’s retail centrality
index rating is very positive at 112, and its fashion centrality rating is even higher at around 166 due to the large
catchment area and its key sectors of clothing & textiles and shoes & leather goods.
In 2015 Hamburg had total retail space of almost 2.7 million square metres, which corresponds to around 1.5 m²
per capita and generated total retail sales revenue of around € 10.7 billion. The city centre is by far the most
significant retail location in the city and the metropolitan area. Within the historic Wallring, or inner ring, and to the
north of Ost-West-Strasse, annual retail sales amount to around € 1.89 billion on retail space of approximately
340,000 m². However, these impressive figures are put into perspective in relation to the size of the city, because
they represent just approx. 13% of the city’s total retail space and approx. 17% of its revenue. Of all the major
German cities, only Berlin has similarly low percentages. Against this background there is unanimous agreement
in Hamburg that the inner city retail scene has to be extended so that it can adequately or more effectively fulfil its
transcentral supply function for Hamburg and the metropolitan area.
Although the last 10 years have seen quite a few new developments and refurbishments in the city centre (see
map on page 7), simultaneously additional space has been created outside of the city – approx. 100.000 m² of
which could be found in shopping centres. It is therefore much more important to create more new and suitable
retail space for current innovative concepts and shops within the city centre, in order to preserve the city as the
region´s top retail destination for visitors from the outermost catchment area.
Jungfernstieg 38, clas ohlson
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 5 / 14
PRIME RETAIL RENTS in EUR/m²
PRIME LOCATIONS
SPITALERSTRASSE
Highly frequented main axis (nearly 14,000 people/hour at peak times) to and from the central rail station with a high concentration of young fashion shops,
high degree of chain stores
Highest net sales per m2
Hardly any leeway for additional retail space
Implemented development projects: Spitalerstrasse 22-26 (7,000 m² retail space exclusively let by COMFORT, new openings in 2016: Koton and O²; 2017: Mango, Reserved)
Other new tenants: & other stories, Spitalerstr. 28
The PERLE Hamburg also opened as a shopping passage to Gerhard-Hauptmann-Platz, with Cubus, Dänisches Bettenlager, Rossmann, My Toys, Butter Lindner and Gin Yuu as tenants
New concept restaurant by Steffen Henssler in the former Daniel Wischer premises, Spitalerstr. 12
H&M extended its existing store premises, to become its largest Europeen store with nearly 4.000 m²
Location USP: various retail units have entrances on both Spitalerstrasse and Mönckebergstrasse
Rents: approx. EUR 310/m² (small), approx. EUR 200/m² (medium-sized)
MÖNCKEBERGSTRASSE
Generous shopping street as connection between central station and Rathausmarkt
Hanseatic brick architecture, big department stores and clothing shops
Very different location quality depending on side and area of the street
Europa Passage fulfils important traffic function as strong connection between Mönckebergstraße and Jungfernstieg/City West
Most attractive section between P&C/Galeria Kaufhof/Saturn/Zara flagship store and Bergstraße
Further enhancement towards Rathausmarkt/Großer Burstah thanks to the establishment of the Business Improvement District (BID) in the Nikolai Quarter
Recent establishment of the new Mönckebergstrasse BID
Low tenant fluctuation, so very few new rental opportunities at the “MÖ”
New tenants: Roncalli Café, Chanel Cosmetics, Sabon
Rents: approx. EUR 240/m² (small), approx. EUR 150/m² (medium-sized)
310
80-120 m²
210
80-120 m² Spitalerstraße 22-26: Koton und O2 opened Flagships in the development of CENTRUM
200
300-500 m²
150
300-500 m²
240
80-120 m²
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 6 / 14
JUNGFERNSTIEG
Upmarket area with high footfall, traditional boulevard located on the Inner Alster, retailers along one side
Started redevelopment of the Alsterhaus department store by the KaDeWe Group will boost business
Very popular area for tourists
New tenants: Clas Ohlson, Läderach, Brandy Melville
Rents: approx. EUR 210/m² (small), approx. EUR 155/m² (medium-sized)
NEUER WALL
Luxury retail location with international standing and dynamic development
Differentiated location character along the street (3 districts)
Highest footfall in the luxury segment between Jungfernstieg and Poststrasse
Concentration of international luxury labels in the central area between Poststrasse and Bleichenbrücke
New concepts are improving the retail mix and increasing footfall
The Quantum development Stadthöfe (opening 2018) provides new impulses; obvious stronger focus on luxury
New tenants: Mont Blanc (relocation), Illums Bolighus, Ecco, WMF (soon) Rents: approx. EUR 275/m² (small), approx. EUR 170/m² (medium-sized)
210
80-120 m²
155
300-500 m²
275
80-120 m²
170
300-500 m²
Jungfernstieg 48, Brandy Melville
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 7 / 14
GROSSE BLEICHEN / HOHE BLEICHEN / POSTSTRASSE
GERHOFSTRASSE / GALERIEN
A city quarter with a mixture of premium and upmarket retailers offering excellent amenity value
Further location development with the implementation of the BID Passagenviertel (Shopping Arcade Quarter) in Poststrasse/Grosse Bleichen and Gänsemarkt (Gerhofstrasse/ Poststrasse)
Arrival of new concepts that don’t target the mass market
Concentration of shopping arcades, most of which have been refurbished (Kaufmannshaus, Alte Post, Giradet Höfe) or are newly developed (Kaisergalerie by Quantum)
In Hohe Bleichen Luxury brands like Prada, Armani moved to Neuer Wall, more focussing on premium and upmarket-brands
New tenants: Who’s perfect, North Sails, Friendly Hunting, Boggi Milano, White Wall
Rents: approx. EUR 105 to 210/m² (small), approx. EUR 68 to 155/m² (medium-sized)
Hamburg is still one of the top cities in the COMFORT City Ranking. This is partly due to the city’s average retail
space productivity of EUR 5,600 per square metre sales area, which is only surpassed by Munich city centre. But
considerable differences are evident across different Hamburg City Centre locations. This city’s high average pro-
ductivity value and the sustained high demand for retail space over a period of many years, as well as its attrac-
tiveness as a location, are a reflection of the retail space shortage in Hamburg.
This situation has driven a wide range of quantitative and qualitative improvements to the Hamburg retail scene
over recent years and many more optimisation projects are in the pipeline.
210
80-120 m²
155
300-500 m²
Relevant developments within Hamburg city centre 2005 - 2016
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 8 / 14
The City East (East of the Alsterfleet) is an existing prime location where the most notable development is the
Vattenfall building by CENTRUM. It is a result of the demolition of the energy company’s former customer service
centre and the development of a contemporary and generously dimensioned commercial property with 7,000 m² of
retail space which, when completed in the first quarter of 2017, will house four flagship stores operated by Mango,
Reserved, O² and Koton. The back of the building faces the former HSH Passage which has been extensively
refurbished by the HSH Bank into the “PERLE Hamburg” shopping passage. The new shopping passage has a
large restaurant area and has attracted a host of retailers such as Cubus, My Toys, Rossmann and others. An-
other direct neighbour in the former Café Wirth premises is the second & Other Stories store in Hamburg.
The Business Improvement District (BID) which is currently being developed on Mönckebergstrasse will also have
positive impacts on the core area of the East City. An extensive service package includes the set-up of over 50
state-of-the-art LED-streetlamps, ‘winter lights’ decoration as well as further service and communication utilities. In
the mid-term, there will also be some positive changes on the eastern city perimeter. After a delay of several
years, August Prien has now secured the contract to design the “City-Hochhäuser 2016” high-rise project.
The future development of what used to be a location with predominantly office buildings is also likely to result in
the relocation of retailers and restaurants along the extended section of Lange Mühren towards HafenCity.
Deutsche Bahn’s plans to extend and redesign its central station in a southerly direction (including Steintorbrücke
Bridge and the station forecourt) are significant for the entire eastern part of City East. Around 500,000 travellers/
visitors use the 110 year old central station every day. It has the highest passenger frequencies of all passenger
train stations and has already been operating at or near its capacity limit for a long time. For this reason, and in
order to provide central station visitors with a more appealing gateway to the city, which presently leads through a
tunnel, the prompt finalisation of these plans would be particularly welcome.
Several development projects in the peripheral streets near City Hall, Grosser Burstah and Alter Wall deserve
mention. One is the “‘Landmark” development by ArtInvest on Alter Wall in a top interface location between
Visualization of the planned BID-street, facade and effect lighting of Mönckebergstraße. Source: iGuzzini illuminazione Deutschland GmbH | MK Illumination Handels GmbH | Otto Wulff BID Gesellschaft mbH
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 9 / 14
Mönckebergstrasse/Rathausmarkt, Neuer Wall and the western section of Alter Wall, which includes 10,000 m² of
retail space and a new bridge over the Fleet. Another is the Commerz Real’s planned Burstah Ensemble on the
site of the former Allianz building complex, which is scheduled for demolition in 2018. These developments are
essentially part of the BID Nikolai Quarter, which regarding the constructional phase is already far advanced.
Most of BIDs in the City West, which is highly
attractive despite being comparably smaller in
terms of retail space and revenue, have already
been completed: BID projects on Neuer Wall,
Hohe Bleichen/ Heuberg, the Passagenviertel
quarter and the Opernboulevard, ushering in
dynamic development. These projects include
the Alte Post, the Kaiser-Galerie and the re-
modelling of the Kaufmannshaus. One of the
major developments is the extensive Quantum
construction project to build the Stadthöfe
(approx. 5,000 m² of predominantly small units
due for completion in 2017/18) on the former
City Building Authority site. Aachener Grund-
vermögen is also implementing a major devel-
opment project on the former Thalia premises at
Grosse Bleichen 19. The Giradet-Höfe project,
which is being implemented by Gator, will profit
from the Gänsemarkt BID which is already un-
derway. The Thomas i-Punkt and Vapiano store
openings will be followed by another consumer
magnet, the first city centre Globetrotter flagship
store in Hamburg.
By far the biggest retail development project in Hamburg is outside the city centre at HafenCity, in the Übersee-
quartier district, which is planned as the “centrepiece” of this urban regeneration project. The first stage of this new
mixed use city quarter involved the development of the (smaller) northern section by a consortium of investors,
and it was completed at the end of the last decade. The development of the southern section was “bogged down”
by factors such as the financial crisis, and the only evidence of development in this area for many years now has
been a concrete lined pit.
At the end of 2014 the City of Hamburg and HafenCity GmbH found a new investor, Unibail-Rodamco, and con-
cluded an agreement with it on the development of the southern Überseequartier. Deviating from HafenCity’s mas-
ter plan, the multifunctional urban development project on a gross area of around 225,000 m² (including a new
cruise ship terminal, offices, housing, hotel, restaurants, culture and entertainment) will include retail space with a
GFA of 80,500 m². That corresponds to 68,000 m² of net retail space. Added to the existing 8,000 m² of retail
space in the northern Überseequartier, there will be a total of 75,000 m² of retail space when the development is
finished, which is twice the area stipulated in the approved HafenCity master plan.
COMFORT agrees with the Trägerverbund Innenstadt organisation that this project merits critical evaluation:
The planned size and diversity of the retail space (almost 70,000 m² of new retail space, 200 retail units and
around 3,000 parking spaces), plus the shopping centre-like design (protection against wind and weather and a
wharf level) means that the City of Hamburg will be abandoning its urban development policy objective of network-
ing the City and HafenCity business districts in favour of a stand-alone concept. In Hamburg’s polycentric retail
district categorisation system, the shopping part of the planned southern Überseequartier district would continue to
function as a B2 zone rather than complementing the City retail scene. It will be a solitary, autonomous quarter
Stadthöfe – a project development by Quantum Immobilien AG (Source: bloomimages)
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 10 / 14
0 10 20 30 40
PURCHASE PRICE FACTOR
with its own weighting that does not require any connection or cross-fertilisation with the established City districts.
By comparison, there are only around 120 retail units in both prime locations of Spitalerstrasse and Möncke-
bergstrasse together as opposed to the planned 200 units in Überseequartier. And regarding dimension: the AEZ,
Hamburg’s biggest existing shopping centre operates on a retail rental space of 59.000 m². But in contrast to the
Überseequartier since the 1970’s this retail space was build up successively and grew far more compatible to-
gether with the market.
INVESTMENT
Over the past three quarters the German investment market has
gathered momentum after a slow start to the year. This won’t be a
record year, but it will be another very strong year that closes out not
far behind the excellent years of 2007 and 2015.
Demand for property in Hamburg is still strong and this city has
bucked two German-wide trends in 2016. The share of transaction
volume in the Big 7 has declined throughout Germany, reflecting an
increase in willingness on the part of investors to invest in other loca-
tions. Hamburg is the Big 7 city with the lowest decline in transaction
volume by far. The total transaction volume for retail properties in Germany has also declined due to the extreme
yield compression and low property availability. Hamburg has actually achieved growth in transaction volume by
selling some remarkable retail properties over the past one and a half years.
Project developer Art Invest, a company in the Bremen-based Zech Group, purchased the tradition-steeped Alter
Wall ensemble in 2012. It then initiated a development project behind the historical building facades that will run
until 2018 and involves the development of approx. 18,000 m² of office space and 12,000 m² of retail space right
next door to Hamburg City Hall. 40% of the shares in the project are held by a special-purpose fund set up by the
Hamburg Medical Association’s Pension Organisation. The other shares are in a special-purpose fund set up by
the project development company, and several other pension organisations have made investments in it.
A joint venture involving Pramerica Mercury and RFR Holding purchased Saturn on Mönckebergstrasse. Matrix
Immobilen and private investors in Munich had bought the property in 2013 with the intention of optimising its oc-
cupancy level and space utilisation concept, but they made very little progress in negotiations with the tenant Sat-
urn about relinquishing additional retail space. So they seized the opportunity to sell the property for around EUR
115 million, which is around 40% more than they originally paid for it.
A property on Neuer Wall was sold in a compulsory partition auction that took place because the community of
owners could not reach agreement on the property’s modernisation. Although some of the owners joined in the
bidding, they were unable to secure the property, and it sold for around EUR 18.5 million. This was a considerably
higher price than the auction estimate of EUR 11 million. The new owner, a family office that already has a re-
markable portfolio of properties in Hamburg city centre, is likely now planning the modernisation work that the pre-
vious owners couldn’t agree upon and the current tenant, Fahnenfleck, will probably be replaced by a luxury-
/premium retailer with an interest in the location.
The Burstah Ensemble on Grosser Burstah in the up-and-coming Nikolai Quarter, which is planned as a complex
with around 40,000 m² of rental space for hotel, office, retail and residential users, was sold by Quantum Immo-
bilien AG to Commerz Real at a very early stage of construction. This development project is incorporated in the
open-ended hausInvest fund and it is another aspect of the urban development concept for the district near
Mönckebergstrasse and Hamburg City Hall.
A similar building complex is the focus of Hamburg project development company Momeni and Black Horse In-
vestments, the family office of Düsseldorf’s Schwarz-Schütte family. The former Axel-Springer site near to Ham-
29,0 - 31,0
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 11 / 14
burg’s exclusive Hohe Bleichen will have around 45,000 m² of office, retail and residential space after renovation
and partial redevelopment. Axel Springer Verlag, the publishing company selling the property and the previous
occupant, will lease a substantial area of the office space there in future.
Momeni was also on the selling side when it sold Wallhaus, an office and commercial building on Neuer Wall with
around 5,000 m² of rental space, to a private investor for around EUR 60 million. The two luxury retailers Giorgio
Armani and Mulberry have now moved in there. This sale continues Momeni’s run of success in the immediate
vicinity of Neuer Wall, where it has already realised four projects.
Two smaller properties on Rathausmarkt and Jungfernstieg also changed hands. Quantum Immobilien purchased
the office and commercial building at Rathausmarkt 19 for one of its special-purpose funds. The retail tenants are
the Rathausapotheke pharmacy and the Nur Hier bakery. Jungfernstieg 47 (tenant O2) changed hands only very
recently in 2014. It has now been bought by the open-ended property fund “Leading Cities Invest” which is man-
aged by the KanAm fund company. The sale provided a hefty 20% profit to a family office in northern Germany.
Outside the city centre there have also been many investment transactions in the districts. For example, Frankfurt-
based DIC purchased a package of three retail properties, including two Marktkauf Centers in Hamburg-Harburg
and Hamburg-Bergedorf. Last year project developer HBB sold the W1 commercial building, a new development
project with tenants such as Decathlon, Rewe and dm, in Hamburg-Wandsbek to the Munich company KGAL, and
this year HBB purchased the Krohnstieg Center in Hamburg-Langenhorn. It plans to implement optimisations over
the next few years. CBRE Global Investors purchased the Rahlstedt Center, a shopping centre in the western
Hamburg district of the same name, and Hamburg’s Quantum bought a commercial property in Hamburg-
Blankenese with eight units and tenants including Deutsche Post and the DatBackhus bakery. Other smaller retail
properties, e.g. in sub-districts of Hamburg-Niendorf (Tibarg) and Bergedorf (Weidenbaumsweg), also changed
owners. In Wedel, which is located on the western Hamburg city limits, a commercial property with the tenants
Mönckebergstraße 1, SATURN
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 12 / 14
Rossmann and Hamburger Sparkasse was sold to a private investor in Hamburg. COMFORT Hamburg arranged
the lease with Rossmann and brokered the sale.
Sustained high demand for premium commercial properties in Hamburg City is likely to continue putting pressure
on yields. The low interest rates are not likely to change in the near future, so property investments continue to be
one of the most important institutional and private capital outlay options. Despite the historically low yields, further
yield compression in the next year cannot be ruled out. While yields as low as 2.5 to 2.0 % were recently being
accepted for selected properties with potential, investors looking for ‘completed products’ can now expect yields of
3.5 to 3.3% if they intend to invest in properties located in Hamburg’s prime city centre.
COMORT CITY-RANKING 2016
The COMFORT City Ranking assesses the economic basis, power of attraction, and performance of the retail trade and retail properties in city centres. The index serves as a factually substantiated basis for negotiating rental and purchase prices of city-centre retail properties in Germany. Technically, it is a weighted index of relevant key data and parameters relating to demography and (socio-)economics, the retail trade, location and retail properties. For the most important 60 cities, which are represented in this HIGH STREETS report with individual city reports, a total of 35 parameters determined topically and in the same manner for each individual city are entered. Using a scoring model, the parameters cover three major areas, within which individual sub-indicators are also analysed. In detail these are as follows: • Demography/(socio-)economic index (Parameters for population/development, GDP, employment, unemployment, tourism, retail purchasing power) • Retail trade index (Parameters for the catchment area: population size and level of demand, retail centrality, fashion centrality, as well as city centre sales, sales areas
and sales-area productivity) • Location and real-estate index (Parameters for the rents of small/medium-sized spaces, location / retail space structure of the city centre, industry/operator mix in the city
centre, rental demand, intensity of demand[Overall rental space demand in m2 in relation to the available retail spaces in the city centre])
Hamburg is currently ranked at the forefront of the COMFORT City Ranking, a weighted index with 35 parameters
benchmarking the performance and attractiveness of the retail sectors in cities throughout Germany. Scoring 91
out of a possible 100 points, Hamburg is the undisputed “jewel of northern Germany”. It achieved particularly high
scores for its macro-economic performance, retail performance and catchment area.
SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK
Hamburg is the dominant northern German city and the second-largest city in the entire country with a very solid
and sustainable macro-economic environment. Beyond its impressive endogenous potential, the external factor of
tourism adds to Hamburg’s weighting year after year. The Speicherstadt and the Kontorhaus quarter have re-
ceived UNESCO World Cultural Heritage status, and the city has another genuinely global highlight with the re-
cently opened Elbphilharmonie concert hall. All these developments are making the city even more attractive to
foreign tourists and international retailers wanting to expand to Germany.
In the overall framework of near-term inner city developments, a wide variety of projects are creating new and
generally high quality retail space. They will become established in the course of existing or BID development
processes, particularly on the perimeters of existing business districts. As a result, qualified retail locations in
Hamburg are expanding predominantly to the south-west (extending good locations in the vicinity of Grosse Blei-
chen, Neuer Wall, Alter Wall, Grosse Johannisstrasse, Grosser Burstah), though there is also a growing focus
along Alstertor and Ballindamm towards Binnenanalster and BID-related developments to the north on Opern-
boulevard. Development lines to the south (“a jump” across Steinstrasse) are evident by the new retail stores that
have opened recently (dm, Ligne Roset on both sides of the street) and reflected in the planned City-Hochhäuser
high-rise development project. Urban development policy aims to create a functional link between City and
Demography / (socio-)economy
Retail trade
Location and real estate
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 13 / 14
HafenCity and this is happening or, at least, developments appear to be moving in that direction because existing
retail locations are being successively extended towards HafenCity, although there are no developments in the
opposite direction.
In light of these extremely positive organic development processes, the development outlook in HafenCity, espe-
cially the southern Überseequartier, is strongly criticised by city centre property owners, investors and merchants.
The urban developers’ misguided attempt to set up a giant stand-alone concept – a current draft discussion paper
on the development of a new concept for central Hamburg actually calls it a UFO – is being exacerbated by the
commercial impacts on City retailers. According to a BulwienGesa report, significant revenue shrinkage of be-
tween € 120 and 150 million is to be expected, which will considerably weaken the position of established City
retailers.
If Hamburg goes ahead with its plans it is possible that a “critical mass” will be reached that will have a negative
impact on the sensitive supply and demand mechanisms in the retail space rental market. This will jeopardise the
continuation of the previously mentioned organic urban and retail developments and the success of the inner city
BID model, which has made Hamburg the envy of other German cities. It is important to remember that the BID
initiatives are financed from contributions made by the property owners and, like many other private sector
investments in inner city retail properties, dependent on the city developers acting reasonably in terms of whether
they would implement their original plans for the Überseequartier district or not.
COMFORT believes that the current plans are casting a dark shadow over urban development progress in the city
thus far, as well as over its future development outlook.
Development of the city centre location structure
COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 14 / 14
CONTACT:
DEFINITIONEN Rents in prime locations All statements pertaining to rents are to be read with the following in mind: New rent contracts drawn up in absolutely prime business locations for fictive, purely ground floor sales areas; ideal shop space has ground-level, step-free access, is fitted out to a high standard and, as far as possible,
its layout is at a right angle to a shop window with a minimum length of 6 m (for a size of 80–120 m²) or 10 m (for 300–500 m²); peak rents in EUR per
m², per month, plus statutory VAT and service charges
Purchasing power, Centrality parameters The purchasing power index complements the information on population size for a given location with qualitative criteria. The average value has been standardised nationwide at 100. A value above 100 signals that a location has above average purchasing power potential. However, the pur-chasing power index does not provide any information as to whether the available capital is in fact spent in the location in question or not. The centrality indicator shows whether, on balance, purchasing power is flowing into or away from a particular location. A value over 100 indicates that the inflow of purchasing power from the surrounding area is higher than the outflow from the city. The centrality indicator thereby sheds a special light on the attractiveness of a location for the retail trade.
Fashion centrality Analogous to the industry-wide centrality parameters (= retail centrality), the fashion centrality indicator sheds light on the situation in an important sub-sector – the key city-centre segment fashion, which in turn comprises the two product segments clothing/textiles and shoes/leather products.
Catchment Area
Cartographic representation of geographic areas in terms of the city’s importance to their resident population as a shopping destination. Blue repre-sents the core city area (zone 1) and red represents the immediate and extended catchment area (zone II).
RESEARCH & CONSULTING
OLAF PETERSEN
COMFORT Research & Consulting Phone: +49 40 300858-22 Mobile: +49 175 7217720 E-Mail: [email protected]
INVESTMENT
THOMAS A. HECKH
COMFORT Hamburg
Phone: +49 40 300858-17
Mobile: +49 175 7217734
E-Mail: [email protected]
LEASING
FRANK REITZIG
COMFORT Hamburg
Phone: +49 40 300858-13
Mobile: +49 175 7217723
E-Mail: [email protected]
Editor: COMFORT Holding GmbH Kaistraße 8A 40221 Düsseldorf
About the COMFORT Group The COMFORT Group has specialised in the sale and letting of commercial properties and retail units in prime city centre locations since it was established in 1979. As a proven retail property expert, COMFORT makes its know-how available via a consultancy services portfolio which includes expertises, second opinion appraisals and third party due diligence reports. The portfolio also includes shopping centre consultancy, management services and the special unit luxury retail. The COMFORT Group is headquartered in Düsseldorf and has offices in Berlin, Düs-seldorf, Hamburg, Leipzig, Munich, Vienna and Zurich. www.comfort.de
COMFORT Group media contact Frank Hinz, Corporate Communications Kaistraße 8A, 40221 Düsseldorf / Phone: +49 211 9550-144 / E-Mail: [email protected]