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Halofsky - Climate change trends for northern Rockies
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Transcript of Halofsky - Climate change trends for northern Rockies
Climate Change Trends for the Northern Rockies
Jessica HalofskySchool of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University
of Washington, Seattle, WA
Presenting assessments developed by:Linda Joyce, Charlie Luce, Jeff Morisette, Darrin Sharp, John
Stevenson, and Marian Talbert
Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Science-management partnership with the goals of:
• Increasing climate change awareness
• Assessing vulnerability of natural resources
• Developing adaptation strategies and tactics
The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Included assessments for:• Climate• Water• Fisheries• Vegetation • Disturbance• Wildlife
• Recreation• Cultural
heritage• Ecosystem
services
The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) Assessment Area
Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Outline- Historical and projected climate for the NRAP
region
- Central sub-region specific climate information
- Expected changes in hydrology
Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Historical Climate Data come from:
• Maurer et al. dataset (2002)
• PRISM (2014)
• TopoWx
Modeled climate data come from:
• CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data
• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): 4.5 and 8.5
• With Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) statistical downscaling algorithm (Wood et al. 2004)
• Looking at “normal” (~30 year averages) for 1979-2009, 2030-2059, and 2070-2099.
The NRAP Climate Summary Chapter used…
Future temperature
projections for the NRAP
assessment area
Future precipitation
projections for the NRAP
assessment area
Future climate in the Central Subregion
Sits at the boundary between the warm,
wet, maritime airflows from the
Pacific Ocean, and the cooler, drier
airflows from Canada
Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Central SubregionHistorical Climate
Statistically significant warming:
Tmax = 0.11 °F/decade
Tmin = 0.23 °F/decade
No significant trend in precipitation.
4km PRISM data
CMIP5 climate models project continued
warming, with emissions a major
uncertainty (RCP 8.5 vs RCP 4.5).
Tmax +5-11 °F by 2100, as compared to 1950-
2012.
CMIP5 climate models project continued
warming, with emissions a major
uncertainty (RCP 8.5 vs RCP 4.5).
Tmin +6-12 °F by 2100, as compared to 1950-
2012.
Projections for precipitation are
less certain, but it will probably be
slightly wetter on an annual basis.
Central SubregionMaximum
Temperature
Warmer in all seasons
Central SubregionMinimum
Temperature
Warmer in all seasons
Central SubregionSeasonal
Precipitation
Suggestion is for drier summers; wetter winters and springs; fall about the same.
Central Subregion Summary
• Over the last 100 years, Tmin increased more than Tmax.
• Tmax is projected to rise from 5 to 11 degrees F and T min from 6 to 12 degrees F over the next 100 years.
• Projections for precipitation have greater uncertainty than temperature.
• Seasonally, projected winter Tmax rises above freezing (32 oF) in mid-century.
• Summer temperatures will likely increase, and precipitation may decrease.
Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Climate HydrologySnowGlaciersStreamflowSoil Water -> Trees
Declines in Mountain Runoff 1948-2013
Frac
tio
nal
Ch
ange
in L
ow
est
Qu
arti
le 1
94
8-2
01
3
Luce, Abatzoglou, Holden 2013
Orographic Precipitation
Future Wind Changes – from GCMs
20 of 24 models show a decline for the region studied!
Luce, Abatzoglou, Holden 2013
Snow
Fraction of Nov-Mar PrecipitationThat is still snow on April 1
3°C Temperature Increase
April 1 SWE Sensitivity
3°C Temperature Increase
Residence Time Sensitivity
Percent Change in Snow Residence Time
Grinnell GlacierGlacier National Park, MT
USGS Repeat Photography Projecthttp://nrmsc.usgs.gov/repeatphoto/
T. J. Hileman photoCourtesy of GNP Archives1938 20091981 1998Carl Key photo
USGSD. Fagre photo
USGSLindsey Bengtson photo
USGS
Oblique view of Grinnell Glacier taken from the summit of Mount Gould, Glacier National Park. The relative sensitivity of glaciers to climate change is illustrated by the dramatic recession of
Grinnell Glacier while surrounding vegetation patterns remain stable.
Runoff
Kormos et al., in prep
Reduced Low Flows
Watersheds in NRAP
Mean Annual
Flow
% Change
Mean Summer
Flow
% Change
Center of Timing of
Streamflow(Days)
Δ Days
1.5-Year Flood
Magnitude (Bankfull)
% Change
• Snow will not last as long• April snowpack will mostly decline• Glaciers at extreme risk• Less water in summer
- Lower lows- Earlier center of timing
• Annual flows uncertain• More frequent flood occurrence in
winter vs. spring- Flood magnitude uncertain
Summary