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Transcript of HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 1 HALO and...
![Page 1: HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 1 HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Johannes Kaiser Martin Schultz, Tony Hollingsworth.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052410/55154baf55034685568b52c6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 1
HALO and Wildfires in GEMS
Johannes Kaiser
Martin Schultz, Tony Hollingsworth
![Page 2: HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 1 HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Johannes Kaiser Martin Schultz, Tony Hollingsworth.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052410/55154baf55034685568b52c6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 2
Overview of Presentation
• Introduction: HALO and GEMS
• GEMS Requirements
• Existing Models of Fire Emissions
• Available Fire Earth Observations
• Strategy Proposal
• Conclusions
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 3
HALO Overview
![Page 4: HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 1 HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Johannes Kaiser Martin Schultz, Tony Hollingsworth.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052410/55154baf55034685568b52c6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 4
HALO – GMES Specific Support Action (SSA)
• Harmonised coordination of Atmosphere, Land and Ocean integrated projects of the GMES backbone (1/2/2004 – 1/1/2007)
• geoland (1/1/2004 - 1/2/2007)• Global and regional observatories & core services
• MERSEA (1/4/2004 – 1/4/2008)• Global to coastal scale models, EO and in-situ data
assimilation and modelling • GEMS (1/3/2005 - 1/3/2009)
• Global greenhouse and reactive gases, global aerosol and regional air pollution, EO-data assimilation and modelling
• HALO aims at formulating agreed recommendations to GAC and IPs
• Scientific thematic analysis of links:• Direct product exchange • Unaccomplished data demands • Common data
• Coordinated solutions to infra-structure in operational mode• Candidate solutions by Alcatel and Astrium
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 5
HALO-Partners
• GMES Integrated Projects• ECMWF (lead + GEMS + Meteorology )• Infoterra (geoland) • IFREMER (MERSEA)
• Industrial partners• Alcatel (Ocean – Atmosphere)• Astrium (Land – Atmosphere)
OceanMersea
LandGeoland
AtmosphereGEMSNWP
Halo
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 6
Overall System: More Details
Geoland
GEMS
MERSEA
RTlink
Off -linelink
ModelAssim.
RetrievalData
Satellite Agencies
CLSNERSC
m-fCMS
MFS TOPAZMercator
CSP
OFMECMWF
NWPUK-metoffice
FOAM
ONC
OLF
GEMS
In-situ
NWP
Coriolis
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 7
GEMS Overview
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 8
GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data
Coordinator A.Hollingsworth (ECMWF)
Projects Leadership
Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F)
Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D)
Aerosol O.Boucher (UK)
Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F)
Validation H.Eskes (NL)
Global Production System A.Simmons (ECMWF),
GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countrieswww.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 9
Objectives of GEMS
• Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition ready by 2009
• Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data • GREENHOUSE GASES (initially including CO2, and progressively
adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy),
• REACTIVE GASES (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species),
• AEROSOLS (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30)
• Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts
• Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007
• Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO2 and other trace constituents
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 10
ReactiveGases
Greenhouse
Gases
AerosolRegional
Air Quality
GEMS organisation in 6 sub-projects
Validation
greenhousegases
reactivegases
regional air qualityaerosols
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 11
Schedule of GEMS Work at Central Site
Year 1May 2005+12 mo
• Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. • Acquire data; build web-site
Year 2May 2006+12 mo
• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners• Provide feedback to data providers
Year 2-2.5May 2007 + 6 mo
• Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; • Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience
Year 2.5-3.5Nov 2007+ 12 mo
• Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• Build operational system, & interfaces to partners
Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo
• Final pre-operational trials • Documentation & Scientific papers
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 12
GEMS Requirements on Wildfires
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 13
Fire Emissions …
• … may dominate regional air quality in “severe air pollution” events
• … may elevate background after long range transport (Stohl et al. 2001)
• … significantly contributes to emission budgets of several gases (Kyoto, CLRTAP, …)
• … may influence weather by heat production and absorbing smoke.
• … provide essential a priori information for remote sensing
• … are variable on all time scales from hours to decades
near London-Luton, 2005-12-11 <news.bbc.co.uk>
NOAA, 2005-12-11
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 14
Interannual Variability
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 15
CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e GuianaGuiana
10 km
CO CO – – COCO22
300 ppb
Short-term Variability: CO, CO2
(courtesy M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 16
CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e GuianaGuiana
10 km
CO CO – – COCO22
300 ppb
Short-term Variability: O3
(Andreae et al. 2001)
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 17
GEMS Required Fire Products
• Products• amount emitted: aerosol, trace gases• location, time• injection height profile
• Availability• global• near-real time and retrospectively• time resolution of several hours to one day
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 18
Schedule of GEMS Wildfire Requirements
Year 2May 2006+12 mo
• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude
Year 2.5-3.5Nov 2007+ 12 mo
• Produce unified reanalyses for trace gases and aerosol• high-resolution (temporal & spatial) global fire products for 2000–2007
Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo
• Final pre-operational trials • high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 19
Existing Models of Fire Emission
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 20
Existing Emission Models
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 21
CLAIRE 1998 – Roraima FiresCLAIRE 1998 – Roraima FiresSimulation using CATT-BRAMSSimulation using CATT-BRAMS
(courtesy INPE/CPTEC, M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 22
CLAIRE 1998 – Roraima FiresCLAIRE 1998 – Roraima FiresSimulation using CATT-BRAMS Eulerian Transport ModelSimulation using CATT-BRAMS Eulerian Transport Model
1000 m --------------------- 11700 m1000 m --------------------- 11700 m
(produced by INPE/CPTEC, courtesy of M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 23
Some Conclusions on Existing Fire Emission Models
• No global operational system exists.
• (Some) severe events of pollution with aerosol and CO can be monitored and forecast with observations of fires only.
• It is possible.• Fire EO input is essential.
• High temporal frequency of fire observations is important.
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 24
Available Observations
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 25
emission X
land cover type
availablefuel load
hot spots
burnt area
fire radiativepower
emissionfactor X
burnt mass
combustionefficiency
fire radiativeenergy
leaf area index/ NDVI
burning area
fire temperature
burn scars
injectionheightprofile
sate
llite
obs
erva
tions
fire EO
Products from Fire EO
fire products
![Page 26: HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 1 HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Johannes Kaiser Martin Schultz, Tony Hollingsworth.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052410/55154baf55034685568b52c6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 26
GLOBCARBON Global Burnt Area Estimate
(courtesy of Olivier Arino)
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 27
Some Conclusions on EO Fire Products
• No current product satisfies all GEMS requirements.
• Many existing products are inconsistent. (Boschetti et al. 2004)
• very active area of research: Several new operational products are anticipated.
• Burnt Area from MODIS (D. Roy)• Fire Radiative Power from SEVIRI (M. Wooster)• WF_ABBA from global GEO system (E. Prins)• …
• Collaboration with geoland community is needed.
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 28
Strategy Proposal
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 29
GEMS Baseline Approach (AER)
• GWEM for amount, MPI-MET [Hoelzemann et al. 2004]
• BUOYANT for injection height, FMI [Nikmo et al. 1999]
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 30
Proposed Treatment of Wildfire in GEMS
Year 2May 2006+12 mo
• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude• climatology: RETRO, AEROCOMM-B & MOPITT2003
Year 2.5-3.5Nov 2007+ 12 mo
• Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• high-resolution (t&s) global fire products for 2000–2007• burnt area, hot spots from MODIS, GLOBCARBON…
Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo
• Final pre-operational trials • high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT• hot spots and/or FRP from MODIS, …
Year 5 - 2009 -
• operational phase • high-resolution global (t&s) fire products in NRT• hot spots and/or FRP from MODIS, …• WF_ABBA and/or FRP from GEO satellites
Part
ial
Fu
nd
in
g
No
Fu
nd
in
g
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 31
geoland, …
t GEMS
satellitefire product
satelliteradiance
land coverclimatology
fireclimatology
land coverproduct
fireproduct
Global FireAssimilation
System
reactive gasemissions
greenhousegases
reactivegases
aerosols
regionalair quality
greenhousegas emissions
aerosolemissions
regionalemissions
Proposed Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS)
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 32
emission X
land cover type
availablefuel load
hot spots
burnt area
fire radiativepower
emissionfactor X
burnt mass
combustionefficiency
fire radiativeenergy
leaf area index/ NDVI
atmospheric concentration X
burning area
fire temperature
burn scars
injectionheightprofile
sate
llite
obs
erva
tions
fire EO
Proposed GFAS, cont.
GEMS
GFAS
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 33
Conclusions
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 34
Conclusions
• The emission by wildfires of is one of several important cross-cutting issues in GEMS.
• The emission by wildfires is ultimately needed globally in near-real time as well as with a time lag.
• No suitable wildfire emission product is available.• Various fire EO products complement each other.• Several promising developments are visible.
• We propose a phased development strategy for wildfire emission modelling for GEMS:
Global Fire Assimilation System serving the GEMS subprojects, ultimately in near-real time.
• (Feedback through inverse modelling is ultimately expected.)
• We need feedback from and collaboration with the fire EO and land monitoring communities.
• We need additional funding.
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 35
More Info
• www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS• www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALO• [email protected]
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 36
Fire Observation Types
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 37
Diurnal Variability
(Justice et al. 2002)
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HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 38
Overall System Layout
Common data
MerseaGeoland
GEMS
Aerosol Aerosol
CO2 Flux Fires
Win
d
MO
DIS
ME
RIS
? River Input
Em
issi
ons
?
In-situ Precipitation ?
SS
T
NWP Satellite Agencies
Un-accomplished data
Direct product exchange
HALO DataCategories
![Page 39: HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 1 HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Johannes Kaiser Martin Schultz, Tony Hollingsworth.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052410/55154baf55034685568b52c6/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 39
HALO-Objectives
• “Optimising the efficiency of interaction the Atmosphere, Ocean and Land segments by formulating agreed recommendations to A - L - O IPs and GMES steering groups in areas of”
• Scientific thematic analysis and coordination• Coordinated solutions to shared problems• Recommendations to the transition to operational
status
OceanMersea
LandGeoland
NWPAtmosphere
GEMS
Halo