Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker - Q4 2014

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Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends

23/12/2014

Q4 2014

Q3 2014

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House Price Outlook (HPO)

* benchmark given = £186,135 (source: Halifax HPI October 2014)

% mentioning

Q. …Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12

months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*]

4

33

24

7 3

20

Lower by

15% or

more

Lower

by 10%-

15%

Lower

by 5%-

10%

Lower

but less

than 5%

lower

The

same

Higher

but less

than 5%

higher

Higher

by 5%-

10%

Higher

by 10%-

15%

Higher

by 15%

or more

7

Don’t

know

Lower Higher

* * 1

Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

Base: 1,970 GB adults 16+, 5-21 December 2014

© Ipsos MORI

+9

-2

+7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33 +40

+64 +66 +65 +66 +62

+57 +62

-20

0

20

40

60

80

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or

will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI]


Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+

House Price Outlook trend

© Ipsos MORI

+9

-2 +7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33 +40

+64 +66 +65 +66 +62

+57 +62

-28 -32

-48

-14

-32

-9 -6

-19

0

+23

+15

+23 +29

+24 +19 +19

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Sep-14Nov-14Dec-14

HPO

EOI

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower

EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse


will it be the same? (HPO)

Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or

get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI)

Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI

(measures in advance of HMCT fieldwork)

HPO and EOI trends

Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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+9

-2

+7

+19

+15 +15 +20

+33

+40

+64 +66 +65 +66 +62

+57 +62

18 13

10

24

15 11 13

21

30

41

51 56 57 53 51

55

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

HPO

Sellingsentiment



Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property?

HPO and selling sentiment


Selling sentiment –

% agree good time

to sell)

HPO – + balance

of % higher

minus % lower


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‘Higher’ trends

3%

7%

24%

33%

20%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13Dec-13Mar-14 Jul-14 Sep-14Nov-14Dec-14




% the same

% < 5% higher

% 5 - 10% higher

% > 15% higher

% 10 - 15% higher


© Ipsos MORI

‘Lower’ trends

0% 1%

4%

20%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Dec-14




% the same

% < 5% lower

% 5 - 10% lower

% > 15% lower

% 10 - 15% lower


© Ipsos MORI

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80Net (±)

Net good time sell

Net good time buy

-43

-63

+18 +17

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?


-64

+15

-38

+24

-55

+23

-62

+27


Apr

2011

Oct

2011

Jan

2012

Mar

2012

June

2012

Oct

2012

Dec

2012

+20

-58

+25

-42

Mar

2013

+27

-26

June

2013

Sept

2013

+12

+35

-6

Dec

2013

Buying and selling sentiment

Mar

2014

+24

+25 +34 +25

+5

Jul

2014

+11

+19

Sept

2014

+26

+24 +14

+25

Nov

2014 Dec

2014

© Ipsos MORI

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?

Good time buy/ good time sell

16% 15% 39%

15%

Buying/selling sentiment combined



Good time buy/ bad time sell

Bad time buy/ good time sell

Bad time buy/ bad time sell

0 0 +4 -5 + change vs November 2014

© Ipsos MORI

59%

higher

Regional dimension: house prices

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12

months time or will it be the same?

Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax

67%

higher

GB London

South

England

74%

higher

North

England

75%

higher

5%

lower

Base: 1,970 GB adults 5-21 December 2014, including 357 in London, 289 South England (SE, SW), 557 North England (NW, NE, Y&H)

and 296 in the Midlands.

67%

higher

Midlands

8%

lower 4%

lower

6%

lower

5%

lower

© Ipsos MORI

Regional buying sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to buy a property?


GB London

South

England

North

England Midlands

37%

bad time

44/45%

bad/good time

56%

good time

65%

good time

16%

bad time

30%

bad time 30%

bad time



54%

good time

55%

good time

© Ipsos MORI

60%

good time

Regional selling sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to sell a property?


31%

bad time

GB London South

England North

England Midlands

55%

good time 47%

28%

bad time

37%

bad time



33%

bad time

55%

good time

27%

bad time

55%

good time

© Ipsos MORI

PRS rent expectations (PRS renters)

8%

53%

32%

3% 0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Q. What do you think will happen to the rents tenants are charged by private landlords that is individuals and

companies in the private sector (i.e. not local councils and housing associations). Taking your answer from

this screen and regardless of whether or not you rent your home, do you think that private rents will be

higher, lower, or will they be the same in 12 months time?


Base: c300-400 private renters

% a little higher

% the same

% a lot higher

% a lot/little lower

© Ipsos MORI

61%

50%

36%

29%

24%

13%

13%

7%

7%

4%

2%

2%

Raise deposit

Job security

Household finances

Rising property prices

Availability of mortgages

Concerns - interest rate rises

Fees and costs of buying a house

Shortage of property for sale

Shortage of the right type of property

Level of stamp duty / taxation

Falling property prices

Don't know

Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?


Barriers to buying

Change +

+4

+3

-3

+3

+2

-6

0

+2

0

0

0

0


© Ipsos MORI

0

20

40

60


% job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices

% raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy

% falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation

Q5. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think

are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?

Barriers to buying – trend data

61%

50%

36%

29%

24%

13%

7%

2%


Base: c.2,000 British adults 16+

4%

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23/12/2014 © Ipsos MORI

Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker - Q4 2014

Real Estate

Transcript of Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker - Q4 2014