Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q4 2013

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Ipsos MORI summary of findings & trends

2/1/2014

Q4 2013

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+9

-2

+7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33 +40

+64 +66

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or

will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI]

Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+

House Price Outlook trend

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+9

-2 +7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33 +40

+64 +66

-28 -32

-48

-14

-32

-9 -6

-19

0

+23 +15

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


HPO

EOI

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower

EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse


will it be the same? (HPO)

Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or

get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI)

Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI

(measures in advance of HMCT fieldwork)

HPO and EOI trends

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+9

-2

+7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33

+40

+64 +66

13%

11%

15%

24%

10% 13%

18% 21%

30%

41%

51%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-20

0

20

40

60

80


HPO

Sellingsentiment(%)


will it be the same? (HPO)

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property?

HPO and selling sentiment


Selling

sentiment

(% agree good

time to sell)

HPO – balance

of % higher

minus % lower

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‘Higher’ trends

0

20

40


Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the

same? (HPO)


% the same

% < 5% higher

% 5 - 10% higher

% > 15% higher

34%

19%

8%

3%

% 10 - 15% higher

27%

© Ipsos MORI

‘Lower’ trends

0

20

40


Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the

same? (HPO)


% the same

% < 5% lower

% 5 - 10% lower

% > 15% lower 2%

3%

0%

% 10 - 15% lower

19%

1%

© Ipsos MORI

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80Net (±)

Net good time sell

Net good time buy

-43

-63

+18 +17

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?


-64

+15

-38

+24

-55

+23

-62

+27

Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+

Apr

2011

Oct

2011

Jan

2012

Mar

2012

June

2012 Oct

2012

Dec

2012

+20

-58

+25

-42

Mar

2013

+27

-26

June

2013 Sept

2013

+12

+35

-6

Dec

2013

Buying and selling sentiment

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Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?

Good time buy/ good time sell

23%

12%

38%

15%

Buying/selling sentiment combined


Base: 1,964 GB adults 16+, 29 Nov-5 Dec 2013

Good time buy/ bad time sell

Bad time buy/ good time sell

Bad time buy/ bad time sell

+8 -3 +1 -5

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Regional dimension: house prices

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12

months time or will it be the same?

Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax

72%

higher

6%

lower

GB London South

England

83%

higher

4%

lower

North

England

79%

higher

2%

lower

68%

higher

8%

lower

Base: 1,964 GB adults 16+, 29 Nov-5 Dec 2013, including 266 in London, 409 South England (SE, SW), 500 North England (NW, NE,

Y&H) and 336 in the Midlands.

58%

higher

10%

lower

Midlands

© Ipsos MORI

Regional buying sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to buy a property?


GB London South

England

North

England Midlands

63%

good time 57%

good time

39%

bad time

68%

good time

23%

bad time

62%

good time

28%

bad time

62%

good time



28%

bad time

28%

bad time

© Ipsos MORI

61%

good time

Regional selling sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to sell a property?


39%

bad time 31%

bad time

49%

bad time 41%

good time 25% bad time

GB London South

England North

England Midlands

51%

good time

69%

good time

48%

good time



40%

bad time

© Ipsos MORI

PRS rent expectations (PRS renters)

0

20

40

60


Q. What do you think will happen to the rents tenants are charged by private landlords that is individuals and

companies working in the private sector (i.e. not local councils and housing associations). Taking your

answer from this screen and regardless of whether or not you rent your home, do you think that private

rents will be higher, lower, or will they be the same in 12 months time?


Base: c300-400 private renters

% a little higher

% the same

% a lot higher

% a lot/little lower

52%

31%

11%

4%

© Ipsos MORI

61%

56%

36%

25%

25%

14%

10%

8%

6%

4%

3%

1%

Raise deposit

Job security

Household finances

Rising property prices

Availability of mortgages

Concerns - interest rate rises

Fees and costs of buying a house

Shortage of the right type of property

Shortage of property for sale

Falling property prices

Level of stamp duty / taxation

Don't know

Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?


Base: 1,964 GB adults 16+, 29 Nov-5 Dec 2013

Barriers to buying

Change +

-2

-2

-3

+1

+2

+3

+2

-1

+1

-2

+1

-1

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2/1/2014

Further information is available here

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http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3321/Halifax-Housing-Market-Confidence-Tracker.aspx

Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q4 2013

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q4 2013