Half-yearly Economic Report 2020 and latest economic ... · Sources : National HealthCommissionof...
Transcript of Half-yearly Economic Report 2020 and latest economic ... · Sources : National HealthCommissionof...
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Half-yearly Economic Report 2020&
Latest economic forecasts for 2020
14 August 2020
Hong Kong SAR Government
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Highlights of the economic situation in Q2 2020
• The Hong Kong economy remained very weak in Q2. Yet, as local epidemicreceded in May and June, and the rebound of the Mainland economy also renderedsupport to Hong Kong’s exports of goods, the overall economic situation tended tostabilise during the quarter
• Real GDP fell markedly by 9.0% year-on-year in Q2, and slightly by 0.1% from Q1
• Local consumption activities were severely disrupted by the threat of COVID-19.Yet the easing of social distancing requirements in May and June helped consumersentiment somewhat
• Exports of goods saw a visibly narrower decline; Exports of services plunged further, with inbound tourism remaining at a standstill
• Unemployment rate rose to the highest in over 15 years; Consumer price inflation eased visibly
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50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
二月
February三月
March四月
April五月
May六月
June七月
July八月一至十二日
1 - 12 August
內地
Mainland歐元區
Euro area美國
US印度
India巴西
Brazil其他
Others
數目
Number
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每日平均新增確診個案Average daily number of confirmed new cases
資料來源:中華人民共和國國家衞生健康委員會及世界衞生組織。Sources : National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China and the World Health Organization.
世界情況The world situation
The COVID-19 pandemic is still threatening many economies
Latest economic forecasts for 2020
• Global economic recovery is likely to be uneven and bumpy. The threat of the pandemic will continue to cloud the global economic outlook until an effective vaccine is widely available
• The tense China-US relations also fuel uncertainties
• Locally, the surge of COVID-19 infections since mid-July and the resultant tightening of social distancing measures have heavily weighed on private consumption and business sentiment. Containing the epidemic is pivotal to the recovery of local consumption activity
• Economic growth forecast for 2020 is revised downwards to -6% to -8%;Underlying inflation rate forecast is revised downwards to 1.8%
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Economic performance in Q2 2020
The Hong Kong economy contracted sharply year-on-year in Q2 amid the severe blows of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite signs of
stabilisation during the quarter
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Q12015
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-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
按年增減
Year-on-year change
經季節性調整後按季增減
Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)
本地生產總值
Gross Domestic Product
-9.0%
-0.1%
十年平均增長
10-year trend growth2.9%
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External sector
7
70
指數 與一年前比較的增減百分率 (以美元計算 ) Index Year-on-year rate of change in US dollar terms (%)
製造業採購經理指數 ̂ Manufacturing PMI^
Korea 台灣 JapanTaiwan
韓國
印度 India
日本
內地 The Mainland
20
15
10 60
5
0 50
-5
-10 40
-15
-20 30
-25
-30 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
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美國及歐盟合計的貨物進口 # US and EU goods imports#選定亞洲經濟體輸往世界各地的貨物出口 * Selected Asian economies' goods exports to the world*選定亞洲經濟體之間的貿易往來 *& Trade flows among selected Asian economies*&香港輸往亞洲的貨物出口 Hong Kong's goods exports to Asia
01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
註: (^) 內地的數字為官方製造業採購經理指數;其他經濟體的數字為 Markit製造業採購經理指數。
(*)「選定亞洲經濟體」包括中國內地、香港、新加坡、韓國、台灣、日本、印尼、馬來西亞、泰國和菲律賓。
(&) 貿易往來根據「選定亞洲經濟體」之中個別經濟體輸往其他九個經濟體的貨物出口總和計算。
(#) 歐盟在二零二零年第二季的貨物進口是根據二零二零年八月中的資料計算。 Notes: (^) Official manufacturing PMI for the Mainland; Markit manufacturing PMI for other economies.
(*) “Selected Asian economies” include the Mainland of China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. (&) The trade flows were measured by the sum of the individual economies’ exports of goods to the other nine economies within the “selected Asian economies”. (#) EU goods imports for the second quarter of 2020 are based on the information available as of mid-August 2020. 88
Regional trade flows slackened further in Q2 amid production disruptions in many Asian economies
Q12015
Q12016
Q12017
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-15
-10
-5
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5
10
15整體貨物出口
Total exports of goods
-2.4%
按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
2019 2020
Annual Q1 Q2
Mainland -5.1 -2.2 5.8
US -15.5 -25.9 -17.5
EU -7.4 -24.4 -9.0
Japan -7.5 -15.7 -1.6
India -11.7 -0.1 -43.3
Korea -0.2 -8.9 -10.8
Singapore 8.2 -14.8 -23.1
Exports of goods to the Mainland turned to a solid increase, but those to many other major markets saw declines of varying degrees
Total exports of goods by major markets
Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
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Exports of services plunged further, registering the sharpest decline on record
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-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20服務輸出
Exports of services
-46.1%
按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
1111
Exports of services
Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
Exports of travel services came to a halt; Declines in exports of transport, business and other services remained notable, but exports of financial
services still kept rising
Travel TransportFinancial services
Business and other services
2019 Annual -21.0 -7.6 -2.1 -3.8
Q3 -31.3 -10.7 -2.7 -5.1
Q4 -52.6 -15.4 -2.1 -5.0
2020 Q1 -80.6 -32.2 1.3 -13.7
Q2 -97.1 -37.7 4.0 -13.8
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Domestic sector
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Private consumption expenditure recorded the steepest ever decline, as local consumption activities were severely disrupted by the threat
of COVID-19
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Q12015
Q12016
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-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
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按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
-14.2%
私人消費開支
Private consumption expenditure
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Declines in retail sales and restaurant receipts narrowed in May and June along with receding local epidemic
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30
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01/2018 04/2018 07/2018 10/2018 01/2019 04/2019 07/2019 10/2019 01/2020 04/2020
食肆收益量
Restaurant receipts volume零售銷售量
Retail sales volume
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
-16.8%
-25.4%
06/2020
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-20
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-10
-5
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按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
-21.4%
本地固定資本形成總額
Gross domestic fixed capital formation
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Overall investment expenditure continued to tumble amid negative business environment
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Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
Overall investment expenditure
Machinery, equipment and
intellectual property products
Building and construction
2019 Annual -20.0 -6.2
Q1 -2.0 -4.3Q2 -12.2 -11.1Q3 -26.5 -2.8Q4 -32.3 -6.5
2020 Q1 -17.9 -11.5
Q2 -44.1 -3.6
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Labour market
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失業率 (%) Unemployment rate (%)
12
10
8
較低技術勞工 Lower-skilled workers
整體 Overall
專業及管理員工 Professional and managerial staff
7.3%
6.2% 6
4 3.8%
2
0 Q1 2000
Q1 2001
Q1 2002
Q1 2003
Q1 2004
Q1 2005
Q1 2006
Q1 2007
Q1 2008
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q1 2019
Q1 2020
註:Note:
除整體失業率外,其他均為未經季節性調整數字。 Not seasonally adjusted except the overall unemployment rate.
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Labour market continued to deteriorate with unemployment rate surging to the highest in more than 15 years
按年增減率 (%) 失業率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
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20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
-100
零售銷售量 volume
Retail sales volume
訪港旅客 Visitor arrivals
食肆收益量 Restaurant receipts
Unemployment rate(%)16
零售、住宿及膳食服務業 Retail, accommodation and food services sectors
餐飲服務活動業 Food and beverage service
activities sector
零售業 Retail sector
14.7% 14
12
10.7%10
-26.9% -32.5% 8 7.7%
6
4
2
-99.8% 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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Unemployment rates of the consumption- and tourism-relatedsectors saw particularly visible increases
Year-on-year rate of change (%)
Nominal growth Real growth
Index of payroll per person engaged (Q1 2020) 3.2 1.2
Wage index (March 2020) 2.2 -0.3
Average monthly employment earnings of full-time employees of the lowest three decile groups (Q2 2020) 3.7 2.1
Median monthly household income (Q2 2020) -10.2 -11.3
1919
Note: (*) Excluding foreign domestic helpers.
Income*
Wages growth decelerated, and household income fell sharply
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Inflation
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各主要組成項目對基本綜合消費物價指數按年變動率的貢獻Contribution to the year-on-year rate of change in the underlying Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI)
by major component
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1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8
0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1
1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3
1.3
1.1 0.9 0.7
0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7
0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0
1.0
0.8 0.8 0.6
0.4
2.8
2.3 2.1 2.1
1.4
2.0 1.7 1.6
2.4 2.4 2.8 2.9
2.7 2.9
3.3 3.0 2.9
1.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20
其他
Others交通
Transport私人房屋租金
Private housing rent食品
Food基本綜合消費物價指數
Underlying CCPI
(%)(%)
Consumer price inflation went visibly lower, as the year-on-year rise in pork prices slowed and price pressures on many other components receded
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Property market
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註: 中小型單位指實用面積小於100平方米的單位,而大型單位指實用面積至
少達100平方米的單位。
Note: Small/medium-sized flats refer to those with a saleable area of less than 100 m2, while large flats refer to those with a saleable area of at least 100 m2. 2323
85
95
105
115
125
135
07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
09/15 03/16 09/16 03/17 09/17 03/18 09/18 03/19 09/19 03/20
買賣合約數目
Agreements received
2000-2019年每月平均
2000-2019 monthly average
住宅售價
Flat prices住宅物業買賣合約數目
No. of S&P agreements for residential property指數(二零一五年七月=100)Index (Jul 2015=100)
中小型單位價格指數
Small/medium-sized flats price index
整體住宅價格指數
Overall residential price index
大型單位價格指數
Large flats price index
The residential property market turned active in Q2
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Index of home purchase affordability (i.e. mortgage repayment to income ratio) worsened
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
供款相對入息比率^ (%)Repayment-income ratio^ (%)
2000-2019年平均數: 452000-2019 average : 45
45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的住戶) 的比率。這比率與
金管局公布的平均供款與入息比率不同,後者是新批按揭貸款申請人的每月償還債務與每月收入的比率。
The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median incomeof households (excluding those living in public housing). This ratio is different from the debt servicing ratio published by the HKMA, which is theratio of actual monthly debt obligations of mortgagees to their monthly income of newly approved mortgages.
註︰ (^)
Note : (^)
(%)
負擔較重
LessAffordable
2020年第二季 : 762020Q2 : 76
25
Total medium-term private flat supply would stay at a high level of 92 000 units
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Q12007
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50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
住宅單位數目
Number of domestic units
未來三至四年可提供的私人住宅單位數目
Number of domestic units in the private sector to be available in the coming three to four years
以上數字包括已落成樓宇但仍未售出的單位數目、建築中而且尚未預售的單位數目,及已批出土地並可隨時動工的項目。
運輸及房屋局。
The above figures included unsold units in completed projects, units under construction but not yet sold by presale, and units from disposed sites whereconstruction may start anytime.Transport and Housing Bureau.
註︰
資料來源:
Note :
Source :
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Outlook for the rest of 2020
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The global economy shows signs of bottoming out,but COVID-19 remains a key threat to near-term outlook
Mainland: The economy has returned to solid growth due to successful containment of the epidemic at an early stage
US: The economy shrank sharply in Q2, but has shown signs of stabilisation in the latter half of the quarter
Euro area: The economy contracted at a historic rate in Q2, but economic sentiment improved in recent months
Rest of Asia: Many economies are troubled by the epidemic, weighing on regional trade flows
27
指數 指數 Index Index
70製造業採購經理指數 ̂ Manufacturing PMI^
歐元區 Euro area
美國 US
內地 The Mainland
70
60 60
50
50 40
30 40
20
30 10
0 20
美國 US
歐元區 Euro area
服務業採購經理指數 * Services PMI*
內地 The Mainland
01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20
註:
Notes:
(^) 內地的數字為官方製造業採購經理指數;其他經濟體的數字為 Markit製造業採購經理指數。 (*) 內地的數字為官方非製造業採購經理指數;其他經濟體的數字為 Markit服務業採購經理指數。 (^) Official manufacturing PMI for the Mainland; Markit manufacturing PMI for other economies. (*) Official non-manufacturing PMI for the Mainland; Markit services PMI for other economies. 28
The US and the euro area economies should have got out of their troughs, and the Mainland economy will likely show solid growth
IMF forecasts for IMF forecasts for
World
GDP growth in 2019
2020 GDP growth 2021 GDP growth
JunChange between
Jun and AprJun
Change between Jun and Apr
2.9 -4.9 -1.9 5.4 -0.4
US 2.2 -8.0 -2.1 4.5 -0.2
Euro area 1.3 -10.2 -2.7 6.0 +1.3
Japan 0.7 -5.8 -0.6 2.4 -0.6
Mainland China 6.1 1.0 -0.2 8.2 -1.0
Developing Asia 5.5 -0.8 -1.8 7.4 -1.1
Emerging market and developing economies
3.7 -3.0 -2.0 5.9 -0.7
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In view of the severe impacts of COVID-19 in the first half of the year and envisaged slower recovery in the second half, the IMF projected a deeper global recession for 2020
二月 三月 四月 五月 六月 七月 February March April M ay June July
每十萬人中新增確診個案數目 每十萬人中新增確診個案數目
600Number of new cases per 100 000 population
25Number of new cases per 100 000 population
500 20
400 15
300
10
200
5 100
0 0
感染率相對較高 Relatively higher infection rate
感染率相對較低 Relatively lower infection rate
美國 歐元區 英國 巴西 內地 南韓 馬來西亞 日本 US Euro area UK Brazil Mainland South Korea Malaysia Japan
資料來源:中華人民共和國國家衞生健康委員會、英國衞生及社會關懷部及世界衞生組織。 Sources: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, Department of Health and Social Care of the UK and the World Health Organization.
30
In the Mainland, the spread of COVID-19 has been well contained since March;Other economies generally faced more severe epidemic situations in Q2
31
註: (*) 淨差額展現了業務狀況預期較前一季的變動方向。它是填報「較佳」的機構單位百分比與填報「較差」的機構單位百分比的差距。正數指可能向上趨升,而負數則為可能跌勢。
Note: (*) Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation versus the preceding quarter. It refers to the difference inpercentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing “better” over that choosing “worse”. A positive sign indicates a likelyupward trend while a negative sign indicates a likely downward trend.
Business sentiment among large enterprises was less pessimistic on entering the third quarter
-60
-50
-40
-30
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-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q12008
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Q12020
統計處「業務展望按季統計調查」 -
業務狀況預期變動 (淨差額) (右標線)C&SD's Quarterly Business Tendency Survey -
Expected change in business situation (net balance) (RHS)
淨差額* (百分點)Net balance* (% point)
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
實質本地生產總值(左標線)
Real GDP growth (LHS)
32
Surging local infections since the second week of July
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
22/01 05/02 19/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04 13/05 27/05 10/06 24/06 08/07 22/07 05/08
單日個案 (左標線)Daily number of cases (LHS)
單日個案 (七日移動平均數) (左標線)Daily number of cases (7-day moving average) (LHS)
累計個案 (右標線)Cumulative number of cases (RHS)
數目
Number數目
Number
香港的新冠病毒感染個案數目
Number of COVID-19 infection cases in Hong Kong
13/08
01/15 01/16 01/17 01/18 01/19 01/2010
20
30
40
50
60
30
35
40
45
50
55
01/15 01/16 01/17 01/18 01/19 01/2015
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
指數
Index
中小企調查
Surveys on SMEs
渣打香港中小企
領先營商指數῀Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index῀
政府統計處編製的中小企
業務收益動向指數^Diffusion index^ on business receipts
for SMEs compiled by C&SD
其他調查
Other surveys指數
Index指數
Index
動向指數是按報稱「上升」的中小企百分比,加上報稱「相同」的中小企百分比的一半計算。動向指數高於50表示業務狀況普遍向好,低
於50則表示情況恰恰相反。受訪企業在填報意見時已撇除季節性因素的影響。
自二零一二年第三季開始提供的季度數據。
指數高於50,表示超過一半受訪貿易商的意見傾向正面,可解讀為業務向好和信心增強;指數低於50則表示情況恰恰相反。
The diffusion index is computed by adding the percentage of SMEs reporting “up” to one half of the percentage of SMEs reporting “same”. A diffusion index reading above 50 indicates that the business condition is generally favourable, whereas an index below 50 indicates otherwise. Respondents were requested to exclude seasonal effects in reporting their views.Launched in Q3 2012 and quarterly data.A reading above 50 indicates that more than half of the surveyed traders incline towards the upside, which can be interpreted as an upward trend and an increase in confidence, and vice versa for a reading below 50.
註︰ (^)
(~)(*)
Notes : (^)
(~)(*)
Markit 香港採購經理指數 (左標線)Markit Hong Kong PMI (LHS)
香港貿易發展局
出口指數* (右標線)Hong Kong Trade Development Council’s Export Index* (RHS)
33
More recent surveys showed that business sentiment worsened again
34
The threat of COVID-19 will continue to cloud the global economic outlook until an effective vaccine or treatment is widely available, with recovery path likely to be uneven and bumpy
The tense China-US relations and heightened geopolitical tensions also fuel uncertainties
Locally, the recent surge of COVID-19 infections and the resultant tightening of social distancing measures have weighed heavily on private consumption and business sentiment
The strength and speed of recovery in the Hong Kong economy will depend much on how fast local infection can be brought under control and also the progress of global economic recovery. The Government has been implementing the relief measures under the Anti-epidemic Fund and the 2020-21 Budget at full steam to safeguard jobs, support enterprises and relieve people’s financial burdens
Hong Kong’s near-term economic outlook is still highly uncertain
35
Latest economic forecasts for 2020 as a whole
Forecasts as released on 15 May Latest forecasts
Real GDP growth -4% to -7%* -6% to -8%
Underlying inflation 2.2% 1.8%
Headline inflation 1.4% 0.8%
35Note: (*) Announced by the Financial Secretary on 29 April.
36
Half-yearly Economic Report 2020&
Latest economic forecasts for 2020
14 August 2020
Hong Kong SAR Government
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