H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando...
-
Upload
fabiola-fitzhugh -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando...
![Page 1: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
HOUSING POLICY BEYOND 2012:PROSPECTS AND PERILS
Larry A. RosenthalUC Berkeley
NACCED OrlandoOctober 1, 2012
![Page 2: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Berkeley Guy's Uninvited Subtitle:
"HOUSING POLICY 2012:THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATEBOUND NOT TO HAPPEN"
![Page 3: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The (Dis)Advantages of Being Headline News
• Housing markets and shelter stability:Star power for four+ years!
• BUT neither major party has policy prescriptions sure to work and sure to fire up their base.
![Page 4: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Many say the bottom is behind us …
Source: RealtyTrac (US data)
![Page 5: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
But risk of a new bottom persistsin many places …
Source:RealtyTrac (US data)
![Page 6: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Conditions remain dire
• FL: 14% of mortgagesare in foreclosure
• NV: 6% foreclosure,6% seriously delinquent
• Nationally, three millionHHs in foreclosure or seriously delinquent
![Page 7: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Plan for remarks• Obamney:
Rough Comparison of Obama's Record & Romney's Positions
• Convergence and Consensus: Policy Frontiers to Come
• What IF?Concluding Thoughts
![Page 8: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
DISCLAIMER: Rosenthal/BerkeleyHas Nothin' On You• NACCED members have lived Obama's
housing and community development policies
• '09-'12, on balance: a blend of drastic measures, genuine vision & creativity, and steady-as-she-goes
• BUT politically: "It's the recession, stupid" (apologies to James Carville)
![Page 9: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Obama's Mixed Record: Examples
• Foreclosure Prevention, Or Facilitation?
• Distressed Homeowner Assistance:Some Helped. Many Frustrated.
• Homeless Preventionand Rapid Rehousing (HPRRP)
• Neighborhood Stabilization (NSP)
![Page 10: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
HUD Shortchanged Under FY2013 Proposal
![Page 11: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Obama and Cities: Murmurs of Genuine Federal Leadership• "Strong cities are building blocks
to strong regions"
• "Interdisciplinary approach that appreciates the interdependent nature of issues affecting urban communities"
• "Takes into account how cities, suburbs, and exurbs interact"
• "Revitalize urban areas holistically"
![Page 12: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Age of HUD Innovation? (examples)
• "Rental Alignment" conferences
• "Rental Assistance Demonstration"(RAD)
• FHA LIHTC Pilot
• Sustainable Communities
• Energy efficiency programs
![Page 13: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Source: Census SOMA
ARRA: LIHTC "Exchange" Saved Buildings
![Page 14: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Romney + Ryan = ?? predictions
• If landslide (control of Congress): –Voracious cuts-only deficit reduction–Across-the-board slashes • HCVs (sec8 & PBV) • CDBG• Aid to seniors, homeless• Full elimination of "unproven" HUD
innovation activities (pilots)
![Page 15: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
If narrow GOP victory …
• White House + control of one or fewer houses of Congress:
–A decidedly more nuanced picture
– Little signal on housing/urban policy leanings
–Until …
![Page 16: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Romney on housing:Five key ideas• Reform Fannie/Freddie
• Liquidate the US REO-foreclosure portfolio (>200k units)
• Make foreclosure alternatives easier
• Replace Dodd-Frank
• Jobs jobs jobs
![Page 18: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
"Reform Fannie & Freddie" (I)
• Overwhelmingly complex challenge – Obama punted out of necessity
• Policy intricacies approach health-care-reform levels
• Moderate Proposal: decoupling investment and market-stabilization elements of GSE's (UK "covered bonds" approach)
![Page 19: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
"Reform Fannie & Freddie" (II)
• Privatize riskiest elements of portfolios; soften affordability obligations
• Retain some CRA-style incentive system for sustainable-communities investments
• "End Too-Big-To-Fail" --> verbiage appeals to independents, but could involve "End GSEs"
• Details lacking ...
![Page 20: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Responsibly Liquidate 200,000+ Vacant Foreclosed Homes Now Owned by the Government
• Dems presumably agree
• Government's a bad landlord(consider public housing's fate)
• Owner/operator "foreclosure investment" firms springing up, particularly in higher-cost metros
• Caveat: fast offload can derail the recovery and shortchange lowest-income HHs
![Page 21: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
"Make foreclosure alternatives easier"
• Benefits banks and buyers, or current owners?
• "Short sales, deeds-in-lieu-of-foreclosure, shared appreciation vehicles"
• Raises serious concerns(local-law variation, tax implications)
• Independent voters may disfavor another round of "robo-signed" dispositions
![Page 22: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
"Replace Dodd-Frank To GetMortgage Credit Flowing Again" (I)
• Is Dodd-Frank really to blame for the credit crunch?
• Expansion in the home-lending sector will require upward adjustment in interest rates
• Stock markets are fully recovered mortgage capital should have followed suit by now ... no one really knows why
![Page 23: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
• Heightened lending standards implement fiduciary "suitability" thresholds
• Implementation still underway
• Can Romney win on a financial deregulation platform?
• President Obama's "let's not go backward" plea resonates here
• Details lacking ...
"Replace Dodd-Frank To GetMortgage Credit Flowing Again" (I)
![Page 24: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Improve the job market
• Many unemployed Obama-Biden '08 voters may wish to give the GOP a chance
• Despite Obama's current momentum, languid jobs recovery is indeed a weakness
• Q: What does this have to do with housing?
A: "Everything."
![Page 25: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Convergence & Consensus:Policy Frontiers To Come (I)
• Deregulate local land use restrictions: reduce barriers to new multifamily
• Reform mortgage interest deduction
• Add renter's tax credit
• Revisit multifamily disinvestment policies:can LIHTC be strengthened by more favorable tax treatment (vis-à-vis pre-TRA86)?
![Page 26: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
• Maintain "chronic" homelessness focus, coupled with housing referrals/assistance
• Expand Family Self Sufficiency Program
• Expand Project Based Vouchers
• Streamline Section 8 Habitability Inspections
• Portable Vouchers: Location Matters
Convergence & Consensus:Policy Frontiers To Come (II)
![Page 27: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
What if …
• What if housing & urban policy actually influenced the 2012 Outcome?
• Not such a far-fetched notion --> remember, we're headline news now!
• Consider what our fellow rational, common-sense voters are asking themselves
![Page 28: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Are foreclosures avoidable? Should government intervene? Can that ever succeed?
![Page 29: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
What part of our ongoing economic struggles are the President's fault? George W. Bush's fault? Nobody's fault? Our own fault?
![Page 30: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
If you believe government can heal the housing economy, does Gov. Romney deserve a chance to lead that effort?
![Page 31: H OUSING P OLICY B EYOND 2012: P ROSPECTS AND P ERILS Larry A. Rosenthal UC Berkeley NACCED Orlando October 1, 2012.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032517/56649c865503460f9493cd54/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
The Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street agree on at least one thing:
Government-as-usual helped get us into this mess, and may never be able to get us out.
What if existing policy tools aren't suitable for addressing new, fundamentally different challenges?