Gulf Coast Energy Outlook: Addendum. · 2 Overview • The inaugural Gulf Coast Energy Outlook...
Transcript of Gulf Coast Energy Outlook: Addendum. · 2 Overview • The inaugural Gulf Coast Energy Outlook...
Gulf Coast Energy Outlook: Addendum.
Center for Energy Studies Louisiana State University
Addendum accompanying whitepaper. See full whitepaper here.
Economics & Policy Research Group E.J. Ourso College of Business Louisiana State University
David E. Dismukes, Ph.D. Gregory B. Upton, Jr., Ph.D.
Christopher Coombs, Ph.D. Dek Terrell, Ph.D.
Gulf Coast Energy Outlook
2 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Overview
• The inaugural Gulf Coast Energy Outlook seeks to provide a broad overview of the current status of trends guiding energy markets with an emphasis on the Gulf Coast Region.
• The research initiative is a collaborative effort of Louisiana State University’s Center for Energy Studies and E.J. Ourso College of Business and focuses on the energy sector of the gulf Coast Region’s economy.
• This document is an addendum to the whitepaper that can be found on the LSU Center for Energy Study’s website.
• The whitepaper includes a number of graphs and figures and provides readers with a general understanding of the research vision and methodology.
• This addendum provides significantly more detailed figures for reader’s wanting a more supporting information.
Take-Aways
3 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Overview
• Lower prices reduced upstream activity, but a slow recovery has started given the OPEC-induced price increase.
• Natural gas experience shows that (crude oil) price recovery will be a long time coming.
• Recent crude oil drilling/production activity is contributing to a significant rebound in associated gas production that will likely sink the recent, short-lived natural gas price rebound.
• U.S. producers are very efficient and have reduced costs, increased capital & operating efficiencies, and increased well productivity (“the best solution for low prices is low prices.”)
• Crude oil and natural gas prices likely to remain range-bound with lower relative pricing volatility.
• Continued positive investment/development activity in mid-stream, refining, and processing/manufacturing – as well as energy exports.
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0
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Natural Gas Reserves Natural Gas Production
U.S. natural gas reserves and production.
Natural gas production and reserves are at levels not seen since the 1970s and both U.S. natural gas production and reserves are now at an all time recorded peak.
U.S
. Dry
Nat
ural
Gas
Pr
oved
Res
erve
s (T
cf)
U.S. N
atural Gas
Marketed Production (Tcf)
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 4 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
2012 reserve estimates mark the first decline in 14
years.
Overview
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0.5
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3.5
4.0
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45
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Crude Oil Reserves Crude Oil Production
U.S. crude oil reserves and production.
U.S
. Cru
de O
il Pr
oved
Res
erve
s (B
illio
n Bb
l) U
.S. Crude O
il Production (Billion Bbl)
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 5 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Crude oil production and reserves are climbing back to levels not seen since the early 1980s (reserves).
Overview
Recent Market Trends
6 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Recent energy market drivers/changes.
7 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Recent market changes: • Non-OPEC production surge.
• OPEC floods market with predatory production action.
• Post-price-crash industry restructuring and resiliency.
• Recent OPEC production cuts.
• U.S. drilling/production response.
Recent Trends
Monthly global and U.S. crude oil production.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
10
20
30
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60
70
80
90
100
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
World U.S. U.S. as a Percent of Total World
Prod
uctio
n (M
Bbl/d
)
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 8 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
In the last ten years, global crude oil production has increased at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent. The U.S. share has increased from seven percent
to over 11 percent.
Recent Trends Percent of Total (%
)
OPEC crude oil production agreements.
The recent OPEC agreements have had the largest most recent impact on supply and prices
9 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Note: *Indonesia has suspended its OPEC membership. Non-OPEC countries include Azerbaijan, Kingdom of Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Sultanate of Oman, the Russian Federation, Republic of Sudan, and Republic of South Sudan Source: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/press_room/OPEC%20agreement.pdf
ProductionReference Level
Production Effective EstimatedCountry Level Adjustment January 2017 Change
(%)
OPEC CountriesAlgeria 1,089 -50 1,039 4.6%Angola 1,751 -87 1,664 5.0%Ecuador 548 -26 522 4.7%Gabon 202 -9 193 4.5%Indonesia*Iran 3,975 -178 3,797 4.5%Iraq 4,561 -210 4,351 4.6%Kuwait 2,838 -131 2,707 4.6%LibyaNigeriaQatar 648 -30 618 4.6%Saudi Arabia 10,544 -486 10,058 4.6%UAE 3,013 -139 2,874 4.6%Venezuela 2,067 -95 1,972 4.6%
Total OPEC Adj. 31,236 -1,441 29,795 4.6%
Non-OPEC Countries -558Total Adjustment -1,999
-------- (MBbl/day) --------
Recent Trends
U.S. crude oil prices and rig count.
Rig counts have fallen precipitously, but are back on the rise.
10 © LSU Center for Energy Studies Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy; and Baker Hughes.
Num
ber o
f Rig
s
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
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200
400
600
800
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1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17
Crude Oil Rigs WTI Price
Crude O
il Price ($/Bbl)
WTI Price Rig Count Jan 2009 $42.40 340
Jan 2016 $31.48 514
Recent Trends
Monthly U.S. horizontal drilling rig activity (per major basin).
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400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Bakken Eagle Ford Marcellus Permian
Rig
Cou
nt
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 11 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Horizontal rig activity increased by 400 percent to 2015 but fell by over half during the ensuing price collapse. Current rebound is highly concentrated in
the Permian basin.
Recent Trends
Monthly U.S. crude oil production.
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2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
U.S
. Cru
de O
il Pr
oduc
tion
(Mill
ion
Bbl p
er d
ay)
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 12 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
U.S. crude oil production volumes are up by over 75 percent relative to historic trends. While production is down, it is still resilient and relatively
strong.
Recent Trends
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Marcellus
Permian
Other
Share of Production, 2016
Monthly U.S. natural gas production.
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 13 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Recent Trends
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Marcellus
Permian
Other
Share of 2016 Production
U.S. natural gas production has increased 42 percent in the last 10 years.
U.S
. Nat
ural
Gas
Pro
duct
ion
(Bcf
per
day
)
U.S. crude oil stocks.
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Crude Oil Stocks 5-Year Average
U.S
. Cru
de O
il St
ocks
(Bill
ion
Bbls
)
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 14 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
U.S. crude oil stocks have increased at an average annual rate of two percent. Between 2014 and 2015 stocks increased eight percent; and another five
percent in 2016.
Recent Trends
U.S. natural gas storage.
0.0
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1.0
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3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Working Gas 5-Year Min 5-Year Max 5-Year Average
U.S
. Nat
ural
Gas
Sto
rage
(Tcf
)
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 15 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Current natural gas storage levels are 16 percent above five year averages and 18 percent below the recent five year maximum.
Recent Trends
Associated natural gas production (shale production).
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16
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Bcf /
MM
Bbl
Growth in associated natural gas is rebounding quickly and tanking the short-lived rebound in natural gas prices.
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy
Associated natural gas production is starting to rebound with revived crude oil production,
particularly in the Permian Basin.
Recent Trends
Monthly drilled but uncompleted wells.
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1
2
3
4
5
6
Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16
Thou
sand
Wel
ls
Note: Share of wells is the average of the last six months, September 2016 through February 2017. Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 17 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Drilled but uncompleted wells have increased by almost 50 percent in the last few years.
Recent Trends
BakkenEagle FordHaynesvilleMarcellusNiobraraPermianUtica
Share of Wells
Wellhead breakeven prices for key shale plays.
18 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Recent Trends
66 58
40
29
85
70 61
38
73
62
45
34
81
65
49
33
98
83
55
39
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016
Bakken Eagle Ford Niobrara Permian Delaware Permian Midland
$ pe
r Bbl
Since 2013, the average wellhead break-even price for key shale plays has decreased from $80 per barrel to $35 per barrel, representing an average
decrease of over 55 percent.
Note: Author’s estimate from source. Source: Rystad Energy NASWellCube.
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
Crude oil price outlook.
Most crude oil price projections for 2017 are around $55 per barrel. Prices are expected to increase in 2018, but remain below $75 per barrel.
19 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
$93.26
$48.69 $43.14
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
2014 2015 2016
Perc
ent
Goldman Sachs, Q1:
$55.00
Goldman Sachs, Q2:
$57.50
Goldman Sachs $55.00
2017 2018
Deloitte $55.00
EIA $52.50
Jeffries $57.00
Bank of America $59.00
Street Consensus
$59.00
Raymond James $75.00
Morgan Stanley $64.00
Morgan Stanley $51.00
EIA $55.20
Recent Trends
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
Natural gas price outlook.
Natural gas prices are expected to stay below $3.55 per MMBtu in 2017 and under $3.75 in 2018.
20 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
$4.39
$2.63 $2.52
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
2014 2015 2016
Perc
ent
EIA $3.55
EIA $3.73
World Bank $3.00
World Bank $3.50
Wells Fargo $3.26
Wells Fargo $3.41 Deloitte
$3.25
2017 2018
Bloomberg $3.17
Bloomberg $3.14
IMF $3.00
IMF $3.10
Recent Trends
U.S. crude oil production trends and forecast.
21 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Prod
uctio
n (M
MBb
l per
day
)
US crude production will likely increase to over 10 MMBbls/d by 2020.
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6
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12
14
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Recent Trends
Forecast period
Gulf coast crude oil production trends and forecast.
22 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Prod
uctio
n (M
MBb
l per
day
)
The Gulf Coast forecast, which includes all Texas Permian production, accounts for a significant share of the gain in U.S. crude oil production.
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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Recent Trends
Forecast period
U.S. natural gas production trends and forecast.
23 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Prod
uctio
n (B
cf p
er d
ay)
U.S. natural gas production continues to be resilient and shows continued strong growth through 2020 and beyond.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Recent Trends
Forecast period
U.S. natural gas production trends and forecast.
24 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Prod
uctio
n (B
cf p
er d
ay)
The Gulf Coast makes a significant contribution to the 80 Bcf/d U.S. market, but the Marcellus accounts for the largest relative share.
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15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Recent Trends
Forecast period
Industrial outlook
25 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Industrial outlook
Natural gas pricing trends and volatility.
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
26 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17
Shale-based resources have changed natural gas price volatility.
$/M
cf
Average 2001-2008: $6.24 (standard deviation: $2.39)
Average 1997-2000: $2.89
(standard deviation: $1.46)
Average post 2008: $3.52 (standard deviation: $0.93)
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
An estimated $240 billion in new energy-based manufacturing development is expected, most of which should occur between 2015 and 2019.
Billi
on $
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Louisiana Texas Alabama/Mississippi
Source: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies.
Gulf of Mexico region: energy manufacturing capital expenditures (by state).
5.0 Manufacturing Renaissance
27
Industrial outlook
Of the proposed facility expansions in the Gulf of Mexico region, LNG export facilities comprise the majority of proposed capital spending.
LNG Export, 59%
Cracker/Polymer, 22%
Methanol/Ammonia, 11%
Other, 8%
Source: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies.
Gulf of Mexico region: total proposed capital expenditures by sector.
5.0 Manufacturing Renaissance
28
Industrial outlook
Louisiana energy manufacturing total capital expenditures by sector.
The continued low natural gas price outlook has facilitated considerable development of over $142 billion: $46 billion already completed, $96 billion remaining, but heavily
concentrated in LNG export facilities.
29 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Billi
on $
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
LNG Export Methanol/Ammonia Cracker/Polymer Other
Source: David E. Dismukes (2013). Unconventional Resources and Louisiana’s Manufacturing Development Renaissance. Baton Rouge, LA: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies and author’s updates.
Industrial outlook
Ammonia demand and capacity outlook.
Excess global supply may start to build through 2020. The degree to which the market potentially becomes over-supplied will be function of project cancellations (if any) and
continued growth.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
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200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demand World Capacity U.S. Capacity GOM Capacity
Mill
ion
met
ric to
ns
Source: Author’s construct from previous slides.
1. Ammonia/Nitrogen Manufacturing Industrial outlook
30
These projections do not account for the relative competitiveness of proposed capacity additions. In most instances, US-GOM commodity chemical production ranks relatively “low” on the global supply
curve (i.e., is very competitive).
Methanol demand and capacity outlook.
Excess global supply may start to build through 2020. The degree to which the market potentially becomes over-supplied will be function of project cancellations (if any) and
continued growth.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Demand World Capacity U.S. Capacity GOM Capacity
Mill
ion
met
ric to
ns
Source: Author’s construct from previous slides.
1. Ammonia/Nitrogen Manufacturing
31
Industrial outlook
These projections do not account for the relative competitiveness of proposed capacity additions. In most instances, US-GOM commodity chemical production ranks relatively “low” on the global
supply curve (i.e., is very competitive).
Ethylene demand and capacity outlook.
Excess global supply may start to build through 2020. The degree to which the market potentially becomes over-supplied will be function of project cancellations (if any) and
continued growth.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demand World Capacity U.S. Capacity GOM Capacity
Mill
ion
met
ric to
ns
Source: Author’s construct from previous slides.
1. Ammonia/Nitrogen Manufacturing
32
Industrial outlook
These projections do not account for the relative competitiveness of proposed capacity additions. In most instances, US-GOM commodity chemical production ranks relatively “low” on the global supply
curve (i.e., is very competitive).
GOM LNG capacity.
A
C
Existing
I E
Existing A. Everett, MA: 1.035 Bcfd B. Cove Point, MD: 1.8 Bcfd C. Elba Island, GA: 1.6 Bcfd (+0.5 Expansion) D. Lake Charles, LA: 2.1 Bcfd E. Northeast Gateway, Offshore MA: 0.8 Bcfd F. Freeport, TX: 1.5 Bcfd (+2.5 Expansion) G. Sabine, LA: 4.0 Bcfd H. Hackberry, LA: 1.8 Bcfd (+0.85 Expansion) I. Neptune, Offshore MA: 0.4 Bcfd J. Sabine Pass, TX: 1.0 Bcfd (+ 1.0 Expansion) K. Pascagoula, MS: 1.5 Bcfd Under Construction L. Corpus Christi, TX: 2.14 Bcfd Approved M. Fall River, MA: 0.8 Bcfd N. Port Arthur, TX: 3.0 Bcfd O. Logan, NJ: 1.2 Bcfd P. Port Lavaca, TX: 1.0 Bcfd Q. Port Baltimore, MD: 1.5 Bcfd R. LI Sound, NY: 1.0 Bcfd
G J
Regasification
Under Construction
Approved
Existing
Liquefaction
Under Construction
Approved
F
M R
N
O
P
Industrial outlook
© LSU Center for Energy Studies 33
K H
B Q
L D
Source: U.S. Department of Energy.
U.S. LNG capacity development outlook.
If all of the LNG export applications currently filed with the Department of Energy were to come online, U.S. liquefaction capacity would exceed 50 Bcf
per day by 2025. Most of this capacity would come online in 2020.
34 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Existing Capacity Additional Capacity
Cap
acity
(Bcf
/d)
Industrial outlook
Source: U.S. Department of Energy.
GOM LNG capacity development outlook.
If all of the LNG export applications currently filed with the Department of Energy were to come online, the GOM liquefaction capacity would exceed 45
Bcf per day by 2025. Most of this capacity would come online in 2020.
35 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Existing Capacity Additional Capacity
Cap
acity
(Bcf
/d)
Industrial outlook
U.S. refining capacity and utilization.
36 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Operable capacity at U.S. refineries has increased nearly 20 percent since 1995 while utilization has remained stable at 90 percent.
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013Operable Capacity Utilization
Surp
lus
Cap
acity
(MM
Bbl/d
) Industrial outlook
Gulf Coast petroleum net exports.
37 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Gul
f Coa
st P
etro
leum
Impo
rts a
nd E
xpor
ts
(MM
Bbl p
er d
ay)
The Gulf Coast region became a net exporter of petroleum products at the end of 2008. Since then net exports have increased at an average annual rate of 40 percent.
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-2004 Jan-2006 Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016
Imports Exports Net Exports
Industrial outlook
U.S. petroleum product imports and exports.
38 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Petro
leum
Pro
duct
Impo
rts a
nd E
xpor
ts
(MM
Bbl p
er d
ay)
In 2011, the U.S. became a net exporter of petroleum products. Net exports have increased 360 percent since then.
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Imports
Exports
Net exports
Distillate Motor gasoline Other petroleum products
Industrial outlook
GOM refinery capacity outlook.
GOM refinery capacity has been increasing annually at an average rate of 1.5 percent per year.
39 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Industrial outlook
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Existing Capacity Additional Capacity
Cap
acity
(MM
Bbl p
er d
ay)
Energy Employment Outlook
40 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
41 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Key Industries • Oil and Gas
• NAICS 211: Oil and Gas Extraction • NAICS 213: Support Activities for Mining
• Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing • NAICS 324: Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
(refineries) • NAICS 325: Chemical Manufacturing
Relative energy sector sizes as measured by employment.
42 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Percent of State Total Employment Percent of Industry Employment in US
Region
Oil and Gas Refining and Chemical
Manufacturing
Oil and Gas Refining and Chemical Manufacturing
Alabama 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.4%
Florida 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.3%
Louisiana 2.3% 1.9% 7.9% 4.0%
Mississippi 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9%
Texas 2.2% 0.9% 46.7% 11.1%
Gulf Total 1.3% 0.7% 55.7% 19.8%
US Total 0.4% 0.7% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015 annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data.
Relative energy sector sizes as measured by GSP.
43 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Percent of State Total Employment Percent of Industry Employment in US
Region
Oil and Gas Refining and Chemical
Manufacturing
Oil and Gas Refining and Chemical Manufacturing
Alabama 0.5% 3.1% 0.2% 1.1%
Florida 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.4%
Louisiana 7.7% 16.7% 4.6% 7.7%
Mississippi 1.5% 3.5% 0.4% 0.7%
Texas 14.3% 6.0% 56.7% 18.4%
Gulf Total 8.4% 5.1% 61.9% 29.4%
US Total 2.4% 3.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Louisiana oil and gas employment forecast
44 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Texas oil and gas employment forecast
45 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Louisiana refinery and chemical sector employment forecast
46 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
30,000
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Texas refinery and chemical sector employment forecast
47 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Conclusions
48 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Conclusions
• Crude oil and natural gas markets continue to be resilient. Prices anticipated to remain affordable and less volatile.
• Natural gas supply growth increasingly driven by “associated” natural gas – a byproduct of increasing production coming from higher hydrocarbon-based production (Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken). Crude production developments will continue to have implications for natural gas markets.
• Economic growth is likely the only near-term factor that will burn-off excessive commodity storage levels. Likely to continue to crude oil and natural gas prices to be range-bound with likely lower relative pricing volatility.
• Continued positive investment/development activity in mid-stream, refining, and processing/manufacturing – as well as energy exports.
Conclusions
49 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Acknowledgements
50 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Acknowledgement: The E.J. Ourso College of Business and the Center for Energy Studies appreciate the financial support provided by Regions Bank in the development of this inaugural Gulf Coast Energy Outlook.
Addition Employment Forecasts
51 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Alabama Oil and Gas Employment Forecast
52 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Florida Oil and Gas Employment Forecast
53 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Mississippi Oil and Gas Employment Forecast
54 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Gulf Total Oil and Gas Employment Forecast
55 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Thou
sand
jobs
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Alabama Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing Employment Forecast
56 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Florida Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing Employment Forecast
57 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
20,000
20,500
21,000
21,500
22,000
22,500
23,000
23,500
24,000
24,500
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Mississippi Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing Employment Forecast
58 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
8,800
9,000
9,200
9,400
9,600
9,800
10,000
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment
Gulf Total Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing Employment Forecast
59 © LSU Center for Energy Studies
Jobs
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
185,000
190,000
195,000
200,000
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Employment