Guide to Scanning for ChangeGuide to Scanning for Change

Prepared by:

Scanning ‘ Channel’ via:

part one part one

part two part two

LearningContent Platforms:

Primary Scanning Tool:

Scanning 101:Identifying & Monitoring Change

‘Scanning’ is a term used to describe the disciplined monitoring of change over time This structured approach to actively building our knowledge base of drivers of change is the foundation of foresight and futures thinking.

While there are formal ways to categorize and document our scanning efforts, this guide is more loosely structured around a simple goal: to change our behavior related to observing changes in areas critical to our future.

What are we looking for when we scan? There is one major outcome and one major output to scanning. First, we are focused on expanding our knowledge base on a cross section of domains (e.g. demographics, technology, policy). The goal is to learn about new things!

Second, we are looking to identify and share specific ‘scan hits’ that might have relevance to the future of our industry or field.

Judging Scanning Sources & Scan HitsIn general terms our scanning sources (e.g. media brands, people, etc) and ‘scan hits’ should be judged based on the following categories:

Credibility Newness Degree of UncertaintyDegree of Impact

Discovering a new ‘trend’ or emerging concept via Time™ magazine or widely read industry publications is not proper scanning! We must expand our radar of resources for weak signals on emerging issues that could eventually change how we live in the world.

Scanning 101

Applying Scanning Scanning can be applied across a wide spectrum.

We may scan for personal reasons as lifelong learners.

We may scan for insights as part of our own self directed professional development. Or we may scan to support strategic planning activities or scenarios.

When used to support Planning or Scenario activities there are three possible results of a scan hit. It may:•Confirm assumptions of one scenario outcome•Diminish the likelihood of a particular scenario•Create a new scenario to consider

Scanning 101 How do I begin? Keep is Simple & SocialThe best way to start scanning is to avoid complicated scanning forms and processes. Just ‘read more broadly and challenge yourself by learning about things that might intimidate you!

And rather than do it alone, consider forming a ‘scanning club’ that meets once a week or month to share top ‘scan hits’ and discuss how they might have an impact on how you improve your products, processes or services.

"Brand You" Thoughts from Tom Peters – Out-Read the Other Guyhttp://www.youtube.com/user/LittleBigThings#p/u/23/rijXiwAQnfI

If you are looking for inspiration – listen to Tom Peters’ advice: Out read everyone else!

Social(Demographics / Culture)

T

E

E

P

Aging of Baby Boomers

Mobile Computing

New Type of Payment Transactions

Distrust of Political Parties

Carbon Pricing Schemes

Value shifts

‘Semantic’ Web (‘Smart Linked Data’)

Rise of BRIC Nations (Brazil, Russia, India & China)

Changes to 501(c)3

Climate Change

echnology

conomic

nvironment

olitics

Scanning across STEEP CategoriesFirst, we must be sure to scan ‘widely’ across different domains. Sit down and imagine the various types of trends, emerging issues and/or events associated with the following STEEP categories (imagine ‘buckets’ that you fill with scan hits!)

Trends

Choices

Events

Plausible Future ‘Most Likely’

Possible Futures

Preferred Futures

Scanning for Three Types of Change Second, imagine the spectrum of types of change that you might be observe. Trends are long term, gradual changes over time (e.g. aging). Events can be large or small but often lead to discontinuities and alternative futures. And finally Choices are reflected in decisions made by people and organizations that we might serve.

Mainstream Resources• Indus try Ne ws • Indus try Confe re nce s• Mains tre am Me dia • Mains tre am Thinke rs (‘Expe rts ’)• Focus Groups

• [Confirm e xis ting as sumptions / ‘Comfortable ’ outcome s]

Fringe Resources Exte rnal Ne ws Indiv iduals (‘Advocate s ’) Re se arch Ce nte rs Local Me dia S ocial We b (Blogs ; Twitte r, e tc) S tart ups

• [Challe nge s old assumptions ; ‘Uncomfortable /Ove rwhe lming ’]

Establishing a Broad Set of Sources ScanningNext we must constantly revise and expand our list of resources for scanning across two types of resources: more widely read ‘mainstream’ resources and less commonly read ‘fringe’ resources. Mainstream resources help us understand the maturing of issues, but often simply confirm existing assumptions rather than challenge us in how we see the world.

Atlantic Magazine (RSS)Arts and Letters Daily (RSS)BBC World News (RSS)Chronicle.eduCNN (RSS)CNET (US; Global) (RSS) Daily RepublicDaily NewspaperDiscovery (RSS)Economist (RSS)Guardian (RSS) Harpers (RSS)Huffington Post (RSS)KPPC (Radio) (RSS)

SF Gate Chronicle (RSS)Times Herald (RSS)Time Magazine (RSS) Today ShowUSA Today (RSS)Vanity Fair (RSS)Washington Post (RSS) Wall Street Journal (RSS)

List of Mainstream ResourcesThe following ‘starter’ list was compiled from resources submitted by workshop participants at ‘Forecasting the Future of California Museums’ held on May 25, 2010

Local broadcast newsLucky MagazineMarket Watch (RSS)MSNBC (RSS)National Geographic (RSS)National Public Radio (RSS)New York Times (RSS)New Yorker (RSS)Nightline (RSS) PBS Newshour (RSS)Public Policy Institute

Boing BoingFast CompanyWiredMuseum 2.0 blogMuseum 3.0 blogCenter for Future of Museums DispatchesLA Times “Culture Monster” BlogGoogle NewsUS CensusYoutubePaste MagazineSpecial interest / organization newslettersMake Magazine (DIY Culture)BlackbaudConferences (Non-museums)London Review and BooksTimes Lit. SupplementLa Republica (Rome)KCSM Jazz RadioBookstore Magazine Rack!Non fiction books GizmodoAldaily.comBooks and culturePodcasts: Robert Reich, Things you should know, Cartalk, This American Life, etc.

Crooked timberAlistapard.orgTrendwatchChris BroganSlash Dot (Blog)Download book previewsTyler Cowen’s BlogGrantmaker in the ArtsJon Stewart’s Daily ShowSteven Colbert ReportOxford AmericanThe Awl (online)Daily KOSLA istLA ObservedDaily TrojanThe SuperficialFishbowl LAHigh Country NewsSlake Los AngelesTED TVVogue.com – Absolute Powers by John PowersPoyntner, RemenskoIndie moviesMetrodad (blog)Local political blogsNationPacifica Radio

List of Fringe ResourcesThe following ‘starter’ list was compiled from resources submitted by workshop participants at ‘Forecasting the Future of California Museums’ held on May 25, 2010

Orweb.cxlc.orgDailyfireball.netWorking MotherHarvard Business ReviewRon Heifetz (Adaptive leadership theory)Popular TV ShowsPopular Events (state fair, festivals, etc)LA WeeklySSIRChronicle of PhiladelphiaSports radioSeattle PI onlineThe Strangers (Seattle)College alumni, periodicalsLife, etc.Snowboarder MagazineArt JournalMarin I.J.CA AA & DesignMamapediaBarry’s BlogMarin MagazineFacebookTwitterLiveJournalShipoffools.comPolitico playbook

GOOD magazineRedditEasy Bay ExpressInterns!UCLA Urban Sensing programCAISEExhibitfiles.orgInformalsciences.orgKids National GeographicCAM e-NewsMashable.comWestmuseLocal newspapersTalk radioHistorical documentsFlyers in BerkeleyCollege radioConcertsChronicle of PhilanthropyVisitors Studies journalCuratorThe ExhibitionistMMCLeadership theory literatureSymphony magazineHistory Books

Limit of Possibility

The Future as a ‘ Cone of Possibility’

Past

Present

Limit of Plausibility

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario CScenario

D

Scenario E

Scenario F

Scanning and the Cone of PlausibilityRemember that scanning helps us avoid surprises by reducing the uncertainty of shock related to discontinuities in the world. Scanning wider than mainstream resources helps to fill that ‘cone of plausibility’!

• Who is now involved? • How has the amount of dedicated resources to

grow the idea changed?• Shifts in regulations, patents, company mergers

or partnerships, et al? • Interrelated with other scan hits?• Is this change accelerating, or close to a tipping

point? • Or is it stalling and not meeting expectations?• What are implications – both direct and

indirect that might affect us?

Tracking the Development of Ideas, Issues & Trends

Questions for Tracking Development of ChangeAs you progress in your scanning start to imagine key questions that you want to ask that might provide insight to the development of change over time. Is your scan hit a ‘leading indicator’ event of change to come, or a much more concrete decision made by an incumbent that signals a new era has arrived?

ScanningHit

1s t Orde r Implication

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1s t Orde r Implication

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2nd Orde r Implication

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Scanning & Implications Wheel Eventually you might apply your scan hits to foundation foresight frameworks such as an implications wheel:

News Corp buys Digital Reader Company

News Corp expands its digital offerings

First newspaper to focus on ‘E-Reader’ hardware

News Corp purchases Dell

News Corp begins to collapse, consolidate, and shut down brands

National news becomes more competitive

National news mergers result in ‘Big 4’: NYTimes, NewsCorp, NPR, and Google

Example Scan Hit & extending implications

Two potential outcomes of this ‘scan hit’ extended into the future

: Exploring Implications Futures Wheel

S can hit summary

: Blue Arrows Opportunities Financial (Inve stme nt, Re ve nue , Acquis ition) Marke t (Expanded S egme ntations) New Inte rnal Skills & Capacitie s (Mashup se rv ice s) New Behav ior (More transactions)

: GreenArrows Constraints Resource s (Lack of; Highe r Cos ts) Offe rings (Cannibaliz e exis ting offe rings) Marke t S iz e (e .g . Narrow Cus tome r S egmentation) Policy Change (New Regulation is Introduce d ) Wild cards (Product re call)

When filling in implications, be sure to consider:•Cus tome r•Company•Co-worke rs•Ne w Product / S e rv ice•Change in Marke tplace

Scanning ‘ Channel’ via:

part one part one

part two part two

LearningContent Platforms:

Primary Scanning Tool:

Scanning 101:Identifying & Monitoring Change

RSS ‘Feed’Really Simple Syndication

By subscribing to ‘RSS’ Feeds

Primary Tool The best way to organize all of our scanning resources is to use a free web-based ‘aggregator’ tool called Google Reader. This will allow to organize ‘subscriptions’ to media outlets and also share within a group of friends and colleagues who also use Google Reader. We’ll begin by looking at Google Reader & the notion of RSS.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSPZ2Uu_X3Y

Google Reader ExplainedWatch this fantastic video by Common Craft that helps explain Google Reader in ‘Plain English’.

Watch for logo variations!!

RSS ExplainedNow learn about RSS or Really Simple Syndication

And various RSS Platforms that

automate feeds:

http://www.youtube.com/user/GoogleReaderHelp

Google Reader – More ResourcesThe Official YouTube channel for Google Reader can be helpful in learning more about this tool!

Visit: google.com/reader

Follow ‘Sign up’ steps using any email address (e.g. aol.com) or your ‘gmail.com’ Note: there are some benefits to having a ‘gmail’ email linked to Reader for accessing other Google Applications. But it is not necessary.

Having Trouble ‘signing up’? Search Youtube.com for:

Google Reader Tutorials

Google Reader Sign up Dive right in!! Learn by Doing!

1) S ubscriptions 3) Conte nt (Re ad Artic le s ; Add Ke yword Tags)

2) S hare Ite ms

Identify the following sections: 2.Subscribe 3.Subscription List4.Friends (for Sharing)

Google Reader SectionsThis is a cut-out version of the major sections for Reader (not to scale)

Note!!! You can view by ‘list’ (headlines only) or ‘expanded’ (short text)!

Google is constantly updating its steps for ‘Following’ People via its various applications including ‘Buzz’ and ‘Reader’. It is best to follow the instructions and be aware of requests to email ALL of your contacts to follow you on Reader.

In most cases you will want to select which colleagues (internally/externally) you wish to connect with via Reader.

Note: They can only see what items you choose to ‘Share’

Google Reader“Share Settings” [Public or Private/Select Groups]

Google Buzz is a separate ‘sharing’ option that includes Twitter, Facebook, et al including Reader.

Learn how to follow People & ‘Share’

3) S hare Ite ms

Sharing by one-clickIf you want to ‘Share’ a scan hit with your network (of ‘Followers’) you simply click ‘Share’ (or ‘Unshare’) inside the Google Reader box

Finding RSS FeedsAs you find new web-based resources you want to look for the orange ‘RSS’ icon. Most websites allow ‘one-click’ subscription (automatically launches Reader). You can also ‘copy link’ and past it in the Google Reader ‘Add Subscription’ line.

Easy way to build your RSS ListA quick way to build out your scanning resource base is to find ‘curators’ on the web who are passionate about a particular topic. If they list a ‘blog roll’ of sites they endorse you now have access to an ‘A’ list of resources to explore!

Google Reader & Twitter RSS FeedsThe next section will deal with Twitter! But before we dive into the land of Tweeting, note that you can use Google Reader as a way of pulling in Twitter accounts using…. RSS!

Scanning ‘ Channel’ via:

part one part one

part two part two

LearningContent Platforms:

Primary Scanning Tool:

Scanning 101:Identifying & Monitoring Change

How do you find the right conversations and communities using…

Beyond ReaderWe can also ‘scan’ by watching and joining conversations on the web through Comment sections on blog sites, or through services such as like Twitter.

?

The most effective professional applications for Twitter connect people who like to share ideas and insights (not excessive updates on mundane personal aspects of their lives)

Demystifying the Value of Tweeting!There are strong feelings of both love and spite towards Twitter! So let’s focus on the professional applications of Tweeting!

•Status updates ‘I am…’

•Activities updates ‘I am doing..’

•Insight updates ‘I just read…’

Three Types of Tweets or Status Updates

RT =‘Re-tweet’ @ = Name of Person / Organization

“Hash Tag”(Events, People, Place, Campaign )

Tiny URL (External Links)

Tweeting Language: RT, @, Hash Tags, Tiny URLs

Back Channel Conversations use ‘tag’ or ‘hash tags’ to allow people (who don’t know each other) but are interesting in a particle event or topic to connect. #museweb, #artsedu, #edu, #museums

Hash Tags and ‘Back Channel’ Conversations

Searching Twitter based on the #aam10 (LA Conference Hash Tag’)

See results on the next page…!!!

Note:

RT = ‘Re-Tweet’

What are useful ‘tags’ for building connections in the museum community?

•Organizations•Types of Arts Experiences•Events (#aam10, #aam11, #cam)

Scanning ‘ Channel’ via:

part one part one

part two part two

LearningContent Platforms:

Primary Scanning Tool:

Scanning 101:Identifying & Monitoring Change

Learning Content Platforms We can also scan and learn through one of the many emerging platforms for self-directed and social learning via podcasts, videos and slide deck presentations.

The challenge of 21st century education will be leveraging the abundant resources of the web – this very long tail of interests – into a “circle of knowledge-building and sharing.” Perhaps, Brown proposes, the formal curriculum of schools will encompass both a minimal core “that gets at the essence of critical thinking,” paired with “passion-based learning,” where kids connect to niche communities on the web, deeply exploring certain subjects. Brown envisions education becoming “an act of re-creation and productive inquiry,” that will form the basis for a new culture of learning.

Video Lectures and PanelsThe next best thing to being in the presence of thought leaders is to watch them via video! While TED Talks have gained popularity there are dozens of video-based content sites on the web to explore!

Slide Share / PresentationsSome people love to learn by reading through ‘slide decks’ or presentations curated on a popular site called: SlideShare.