Guestworkers in the High-Skill US Labor Market - Analysis of Supply and Employment Trends of the IT...
-
Upload
julesla995768 -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
1
description
Transcript of Guestworkers in the High-Skill US Labor Market - Analysis of Supply and Employment Trends of the IT...
GUESTWORKERS IN THE HIGH SKILL U S LABOR MARKET:
Online Press Conference will begin Wednesday, April 24th at 11:30 AM
GUESTWORKERS IN THE HIGH‐SKILL U.S. LABOR MARKET:Analysis of Supply and Employment Trends
of the IT WorkforceApril 24, 2013
Hal SalzmanJ J H ld i h C t f W kf D l tJ.J. Heldrich Center for Workforce DevelopmentE.J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public Policy
Rutgers [email protected]
Daniel KuehnDepartment of Economics
American [email protected]
B. Lindsay LowellInstitute for the Study of International Migration
Georgetown [email protected]
This report is based on research funded by the Alfred P. Sloan FoundationFindings and conclusions are those of the authors.
Full report available at:
http://bit.ly/guestworkersOR:
http://www.epi.org/publication/bp359‐guestworkers‐high‐skill‐labor‐market‐analysis
Key Questions:Key Questions:
• Is there a shortage of STEM workers in the U.S.?
• What is the impact of high skill guestworker• What is the impact of high‐skill guestworkervisa programs?
Th IThe Issues
Are there enough high‐performing/ STEM educated students?STEM‐educated students?
H l i h fl f hi h killHow large is the flow of high‐skill guestworkers? And what are the h i i f h k ?characteristics of these workers?
What are the employment and wage trends in the IT labor market?
FindingsgAmple supply of STEM graduates
Only one of every two STEM graduates employed in a STEM job
Computer Science and Engineering produce 50 percent more graduates than hiredp g
Supply is responsive to demandSupply is responsive to demandWhen wages increase, so does the number of
d tgraduates
When wages stagnate, so does the number of graduates
Does the U S la kDoes the U.S. lackSTEM‐potentialSTEM potential
Students
’ d h l hDon’t students in the U.S. lag the world in performance?world in performance?
U.S. Has Largest Shares of Global Supplyof High‐Performing Students
Science Math Reading
U.S.33 7%K
Canada5 0%
France5.0%
Turkey5.0%U.S.
14 1%Canada
5.1%France5.1%
U.K.5.1%U.S.
33 0%Germany
9.0%
Canada5.0%
33.7%
Germany
Korea6.9%
5.0%14.1%Germany
11.1%
5 %33.0%U.K.11.0%
Other OECD Japan
Germany7.9%
Other OECD Japan15.2%Other OECD
t iJapan17 0%
Source: These figures are reproduced from: Salzman and Lowell, 2008; “Making the Grade” Nature 453, 28-30].
countries24.8%
Japan11.9%countries
28.3%Korea16.2%
15.2%countries25.0%
17.0%
Graduates Respond to Wages:Computer Science Graduates
9.00%$85,000.00
7.00%
8.00%
$80,000.00
5.00%
6.00%$75,000.00
3.00%
4.00%
$65,000.00
$70,000.00 Programmer salary
Programmer unemployment rate
1 00%
2.00%
$60,000.00
0.00%
1.00%
$55,000.00
Graduates Respond to Wages:Computer Science GraduatesComputer Science Graduates
90,000
209%
190%
210%
70,000
80,000
1998
2004
150%
170%
50 000
60,000
Percentage Increase from 1998
116%
130%40,000
50,000
101%
90%
110%
20,000
30,000
72%
50%
70%
0
10,000
C S i G d BS C S i MS C S i AA C S iComp Sci Grads (Domestic; all degrees)
BS Comp Sci MS Comp Sci AA Comp Sci
Petroleum Engineering Starting Salariesg g g
$90,000
$86,220
$70,000
$80,000
,
$55,987$61,516
$50 000
$60,000
$70,000
$43,674$50,400
$30 000
$40,000
$50,000
$20,000
$30,000
$0
$10,000
1997 1999 2003 2005 2010
Source: IPEDS; Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010Salary data from BLS & NACESource: IPEDS; Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010Salary data from BLS & NACE
Petroleum Engineering GraduatesTotal and U.S. [citizen & perm. resident] grads
700
800
600
400
500
200
300
Total BS US BS
100
200
12Source: IPEDS; Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010Salary data from BLS & NACE
What is the Impact of High‐Skill Guestworkers?
• How many?• How many? – H‐1B….but also L, OPT, OPT STEM‐extension, and others
• Concentrated in IT industry
Guestworker visas issued annually, by program or visa category, 1991–2011
160,000
180,000
H-1B
120,000
140,000
visa
s
L-1
OPT80,000
100,000
umbe
r of v
L 1
L-240,000
60,000
Nu
OPT-STEM extension
0
20,000
99 993 99 99 999 200 2003 200 200 2009 201991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Note: Optional Practical Training (OPT) visa numbers for 2009, 2010, and 2011 are estimated based on the 2008 total reported by the Department of Homeland Security. The initial OPT estimates use the OPT-extension ratio to initial OPT in 2008, and the OPT-STEM extension statistics for 2007–2013 are used to estimate 2009, 2010, and 2011 initial OPT visas.
Source: Department of State (2012) and Department of Homeland Security (2008 and unpublished DHS data)
Annual Guestworker Population:Estimated Total and Certified for Employment in IT, FY2010‐2011
100%
65,858 36,07148,724
3,396
80%
90%
160,75557,712
60%
70%
11,10340%
50%
63,276 34,65719,237
32,48220%
30%
0%
10%
Total NewGuestworkers
Not‐IT For IT Employment For IT employment
Guestworkers and New Hires in IT
450,000
500,000 Total Annual New IT Hires
350,000
400,000 Guestworkers (low estimate)
k (h h
250,000
300,000Guestworkers (high estimate)
49.85%
150,000
200,000
49.85%
33.23%
50,000
100,000
0
New Hires in IT (2010) and Qualified IT Guestworkers
500,000
400,000
450,00030 + years old
< 30 years old65.7%
300,000
350,000
200,000
250,000
34 05%
50 000
100,000
150,000
34.3%
34.05%
65.95%
0
50,000
New Hires with Bachelor's & above New IT Guestworkers
New IT Hires/GuestworkersAges 30 and below
160,000
180,000
120,000
140,000
80,000
100,000
20 000
40,000
60,000 64%
0
20,000
New Hires with Bachelor's & above New IT Guestworkers
IT guestworkers 2.25Change in programmer salaries and in numbers of U.S. STEM-related graduates and IT
g(estimated)
2
998=
1)
Computer science U.S. d
1.75
sala
ries
(19
graduates
1 25
1.5
num
bers
/s
Programmer salaries1
1.25
Chan
ge in
n
0.751998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
C
100%
Occupational Field of STEM College Majors One Year After Graduation, 2009
80%
90%
100%
67.8% 76.2%
Job in Field of Major
Job in Any STEM Field
60%
70%
64.5%74.4%
63.7%
30%
40%
50%53.9% 38.7%
10%
20%
22.5%
0%
Computer & Information Sciences Engineering and Eng. Tech
Biology, Physical Sci, Sci Tech, Math & Agriculture Health
Primary reason not working in field of college degree
60%
y g g g(for those working in job outside their field of major one year after graduation, 2009)
50%
60%
53%
Pay, Promotion, Working Conditions Job Not Available
30%
40%
31%32%26%
Other Reason Job Location
10%
20% 30%
10%
26%
5%12%
0%
Computer &Information Sciences
Engineering & Eng Tech
ConclusionsConclusions
STEM l i i t k t i l ( )• STEM supply is responsive to market signals (wages)• Guestworker flows are large and increasing• Wages stagnate in labor markets with large• Wages stagnate in labor markets with large guestworker in‐flows
• Two labor markets:Two labor markets:– Domestic – increase/decline in response to wages– Guestworker – plentiful at wages too low to significantly
d lincrease domestic supplyQUESTIONS: online, on phone, by email: [email protected] / [email protected]/ [email protected]
Full report available at the EPI website:
http://bit.ly/guestworkers
http://www.epi.org/publication/bp359‐guestworkers‐high‐skill‐labor‐market‐analysis