Story LineStory Line ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL.ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL. There is a There is a

Firm Scientific Consensus that People are Causing Major Firm Scientific Consensus that People are Causing Major Changes in the Earth’s Climate.Changes in the Earth’s Climate.

This Consensus was and Still is Opposed by a Major This Consensus was and Still is Opposed by a Major Disinformation CampaignDisinformation Campaign– At First, This Took Advantage of Lingering Scientific Uncertainty when At First, This Took Advantage of Lingering Scientific Uncertainty when

this uncertainty still Existedthis uncertainty still Existed– It Continues in the Absence of Significant Scientific DisagreementIt Continues in the Absence of Significant Scientific Disagreement– Or Else It Argues that it’s too Expensive to Do Anything. Or Else It Argues that it’s too Expensive to Do Anything.

The Kyoto Protocol was Negotiated and Came into EffectThe Kyoto Protocol was Negotiated and Came into Effect– Legally Binding on PartiesLegally Binding on Parties– US and Australia Refused to Join Kyoto Regime.US and Australia Refused to Join Kyoto Regime.– European Union and Some US States and Some Multi-National Firms European Union and Some US States and Some Multi-National Firms

are Taking Strong Precautionary Measures.are Taking Strong Precautionary Measures.– Kyoto Targets are not rigorous but are not being MetKyoto Targets are not rigorous but are not being Met

Copenhagen Meeting in December 2009 agrees on broad Copenhagen Meeting in December 2009 agrees on broad objectives but not on binding targets for emissions reduction.objectives but not on binding targets for emissions reduction.

Climate as an Exemplar of a Climate as an Exemplar of a Science-Intensive Issue of Science-Intensive Issue of

International AffairsInternational Affairs Scientific Discoveries Put Issue on AgendaScientific Discoveries Put Issue on Agenda Scientific Advice is Integrated into the Diplomatic Scientific Advice is Integrated into the Diplomatic

ProcessProcess International Cooperation (Functionalism) is International Cooperation (Functionalism) is

Needed to Manage a Global Issue Needed to Manage a Global Issue – New Alliances are FormedNew Alliances are Formed– Nations Still May Decide not to Join – Sovereignty Still Nations Still May Decide not to Join – Sovereignty Still

ControlsControls Politics Determines the Ultimate Outcome – But Politics Determines the Ultimate Outcome – But

Nature’s Laws are Inexorable: Inaction has Nature’s Laws are Inexorable: Inaction has Unavoidable ConsequencesUnavoidable Consequences– Hard Constraint on Decisions: Pay Now or Suffer LaterHard Constraint on Decisions: Pay Now or Suffer Later

SCIENCE CANSCIENCE CAN– Outline Possible FuturesOutline Possible Futures– Estimate ConsequencesEstimate Consequences– Estimate UncertaintiesEstimate Uncertainties– Point out Areas of IgnorancePoint out Areas of Ignorance

SCIENCE CANNOTSCIENCE CANNOT– Dictate What is ‘Dangerous’ or ‘Too Risky’Dictate What is ‘Dangerous’ or ‘Too Risky’– Trade Off Climate vs. Other Costs and RisksTrade Off Climate vs. Other Costs and Risks– Make Judgments under UncertaintyMake Judgments under Uncertainty

First, The ScienceFirst, The Science

Natural Greenhouse EffectNatural Greenhouse Effect

The Sun’s Rays are Converted into Heat at the The Sun’s Rays are Converted into Heat at the Earth’s SurfaceEarth’s Surface

Heat is Reradiated into Space and Heat is Reradiated into Space and Temperature Equilibrium is AchievedTemperature Equilibrium is Achieved

If the Earth were Bare Tumbling Rock, its If the Earth were Bare Tumbling Rock, its Temperature would be about –18C (0F)Temperature would be about –18C (0F)

Natural Greenhouse Gases (Water, CONatural Greenhouse Gases (Water, CO22, , Methane) Absorb Reradiated Heat and Methane) Absorb Reradiated Heat and Reradiate Some of it Back to Earth, Raising Reradiate Some of it Back to Earth, Raising the Equilibrium Temperature to ~15C (55F)the Equilibrium Temperature to ~15C (55F)

There’s Only One Earth, so We There’s Only One Earth, so We Can’t Do a Controlled Can’t Do a Controlled

Experiment – and the Future Experiment – and the Future Hasn’t Happened YetHasn’t Happened Yet

So Detection, Attribution, and So Detection, Attribution, and Prediction All Depend on ModelsPrediction All Depend on Models

How Do Climate Models Work?How Do Climate Models Work?

Identify the Physical Principles Identify the Physical Principles underlying Climate (These are Well underlying Climate (These are Well Known)Known)

Incorporate them into Computer Incorporate them into Computer Models that Simulate the Workings of Models that Simulate the Workings of a System that Includes the Sun, the a System that Includes the Sun, the Atmosphere and the OceansAtmosphere and the Oceans

Check that they ‘Post-Dict’: i.e., Check that they ‘Post-Dict’: i.e., Reproduce Data Known from the PastReproduce Data Known from the Past

So What’s the Problem?So What’s the Problem?

Climate is a Non-Linear System with Lots of Climate is a Non-Linear System with Lots of Feedback LoopsFeedback Loops

Representation of Geography Requires that the Representation of Geography Requires that the Earth be Split into 50 km Squares – Not Enough Earth be Split into 50 km Squares – Not Enough to Produce Adequate Detailto Produce Adequate Detail

Climate Involves Phenomena that span a Wide Climate Involves Phenomena that span a Wide Range of Scales – from Clouds (1 km) to Range of Scales – from Clouds (1 km) to Oceans (10,000 km)Oceans (10,000 km)

BUT THE MODELS ARE GETTING BUT THE MODELS ARE GETTING VERY MUCH BETTER at dealing VERY MUCH BETTER at dealing with these and other issueswith these and other issues

Models Must Include Human Models Must Include Human Contribution in Order to be Able to Contribution in Order to be Able to

Explain Past Records ofExplain Past Records of Average Temperatures in the Past at Many Time Average Temperatures in the Past at Many Time

ScalesScales Ocean Heat ContentOcean Heat Content Regional and Altitude Temperature PatternsRegional and Altitude Temperature Patterns

Alternative Models (Sunspots, the ‘Iris’ Effect of Alternative Models (Sunspots, the ‘Iris’ Effect of Clouds) are NOT Consistent with the Data. This is Clouds) are NOT Consistent with the Data. This is the Basis for the IPCC’s Conclusion (90% the Basis for the IPCC’s Conclusion (90% subjective probability) that Global Warming is Real subjective probability) that Global Warming is Real and Anthropogenic COand Anthropogenic CO2 2 is an Important Contributor

Impacts of Climate ChangeImpacts of Climate Change Physical ChangesPhysical Changes

– Increased Average Temperature (1.4-5.8C)Increased Average Temperature (1.4-5.8C)– Increase in Strong Hurricanes, Droughts, FloodsIncrease in Strong Hurricanes, Droughts, Floods– Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise– Glaciers are MeltingGlaciers are Melting

Impact on People and EcosystemsImpact on People and Ecosystems– Glacier-Fed Rivers (Mekong, Indus, Yangtze) Have Glacier-Fed Rivers (Mekong, Indus, Yangtze) Have

Less Water and Maximum Flow Before Farmers Need Less Water and Maximum Flow Before Farmers Need Irrigation WaterIrrigation Water

– Insect-Borne Disease Spreads: Malaria, DengueInsect-Borne Disease Spreads: Malaria, Dengue– Coasts Flood and Islands are SubmergedCoasts Flood and Islands are Submerged– Heat Waves Damage Agriculture, HealthHeat Waves Damage Agriculture, Health– Extinctions: Biodiversity Can’t Adapt Fast EnoughExtinctions: Biodiversity Can’t Adapt Fast Enough

Regional Impacts:Regional Impacts:Developing Countries Bear the Developing Countries Bear the

Brunt of Climate ChangeBrunt of Climate Change

Tropical Areas are Already HotTropical Areas are Already Hot Effects on Last Slide Affect Developing Effects on Last Slide Affect Developing

Countries DisproportionatelyCountries Disproportionately Adaptive Capacity is LessAdaptive Capacity is Less

– Less Money for Dikes, Infrastructure Less Money for Dikes, Infrastructure – Less Technical and Managerial Capacity Less Technical and Managerial Capacity

for Adaptation and Researchfor Adaptation and Research

This will Change U.S. Geography – This will Change U.S. Geography – Although No one Is Sure Exactly HowAlthough No one Is Sure Exactly How

Regional Impacts: EuropeRegional Impacts: Europe

All EuropeAll Europe Retreating GlaciersRetreating Glaciers Longer Growing Longer Growing

SeasonsSeasons Health Impacts from Health Impacts from

Heat WavesHeat Waves Inland Flash FloodsInland Flash Floods More Frequent More Frequent

Coastal FloodingCoastal Flooding

Southern EuropeSouthern Europe More VariabilityMore Variability High Temperatures High Temperatures

and Droughtand Drought Less Water for Less Water for

AgricultureAgriculture Health RisksHealth Risks More WildfiresMore Wildfires

Regional Impacts: AfricaRegional Impacts: Africa

Highly VulnerableHighly Vulnerable– Lack of Capital and Lack of Capital and

Technical CapacityTechnical Capacity Climate Variability Climate Variability

and Drought Hurt and Drought Hurt AgricultureAgriculture– Decreased growing Decreased growing

seasonseason– Decreased Arable Decreased Arable

LandLand– Decreased YieldsDecreased Yields

By 2020, 75-200 By 2020, 75-200 Million People Under Million People Under Water StressWater Stress

Yields from Rain-Fed Yields from Rain-Fed Agriculture (Most Agriculture (Most African African Smallholders) Smallholders) Reduced by Up to Reduced by Up to 50% by 202050% by 2020

Regional Impacts: AsiaRegional Impacts: Asia

Glacier Melting Glacier Melting Increases Flooding, Increases Flooding, Changes Hydrology so Changes Hydrology so Rivers Flow Before Rivers Flow Before Farmers Need IrrigationFarmers Need Irrigation– Major Investments in Major Investments in

Water Storage will be Water Storage will be RequiredRequired

Lower Water Availability Lower Water Availability will Affect up to a Billion will Affect up to a Billion People by 2050People by 2050

Risk of Coastal FloodingRisk of Coastal Flooding Crop Yields Could Crop Yields Could

Increase 20% in East and Increase 20% in East and SE Asia, Decrease 30% SE Asia, Decrease 30% in Central and South in Central and South Asia by 2050Asia by 2050

Diarrheal Disease to Diarrheal Disease to Increase in East, South Increase in East, South and SE Asiaand SE Asia

Possibility of Major Sea Level RisePossibility of Major Sea Level Rise

Collapse of West Antarctic Ice SheetCollapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet– 7 meter sea level rise7 meter sea level rise

Melting of Greenland Ice SheetMelting of Greenland Ice Sheet– 5 meter sea level rise5 meter sea level rise– Melting recently measured to be Melting recently measured to be

much faster than previously thoughtmuch faster than previously thought Melt Water Sinks via Moulins and Lubricates Melt Water Sinks via Moulins and Lubricates

Interfaces Between Glacier Ice and Earth at its Base, Interfaces Between Glacier Ice and Earth at its Base, Speeding Glacier Flow Speeding Glacier Flow

Plugs Melt and No Longer Hold Back Glacier FlowPlugs Melt and No Longer Hold Back Glacier Flow

This Would Happen to Florida if the This Would Happen to Florida if the Antarctic Ice Sheet Melts Antarctic Ice Sheet Melts

Another Outside but Scary Possibility: Another Outside but Scary Possibility: Changes in the Thermohaline Changes in the Thermohaline Circulation that Warms EuropeCirculation that Warms Europe

We Don’t Yet KnowWe Don’t Yet Know

Regional ImpactsRegional Impacts Ecosystem and Health VulnerabilitiesEcosystem and Health Vulnerabilities Possibility of Major Climate Change (e.g., Possibility of Major Climate Change (e.g.,

a Much Colder Europe)a Much Colder Europe) Possibility of Abrupt Climate Changes Possibility of Abrupt Climate Changes

(Years Rather than Centuries)(Years Rather than Centuries) Costs of Mitigation Costs of Mitigation

It’s Also Possible but Unlikely that It’s Also Possible but Unlikely that the Impact of Global Warming will the Impact of Global Warming will

be Minor or Even Beneficial. be Minor or Even Beneficial. Would You Like to Take this Risk? Would You Like to Take this Risk?

Or Would You Prefer to Take Or Would You Prefer to Take Precautions?Precautions?

Turning the BattleshipTurning the Battleship

Reduce Use of Carbon-Intensive Sources of Reduce Use of Carbon-Intensive Sources of EnergyEnergy

Use Renewable SourcesUse Renewable Sources GeoengineeringGeoengineering

– Capture Greenhouse GasesCapture Greenhouse Gases– Increase the Earth’s ReflectanceIncrease the Earth’s Reflectance

New Technology Will HelpNew Technology Will Help

Carbon Capture and SequestrationCarbon Capture and Sequestration Advanced GeothermalAdvanced Geothermal Plug-In Hybrid CarsPlug-In Hybrid Cars ‘‘Smart Grid’Smart Grid’ ‘‘Smart Houses’Smart Houses’

But There’s Plenty to Do with But There’s Plenty to Do with Technology that is Ready or Nearly Technology that is Ready or Nearly SoSo

The Inter-Governmental Panel on The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Climate Change (IPCC)

1988: Formation of IPCC, 1988: Formation of IPCC, >2000 Scientists Advising the UN>2000 Scientists Advising the UN

Comprehensive, 3-volume Review of Comprehensive, 3-volume Review of Evidence Every 5 Years:Evidence Every 5 Years:– Science, Impacts, and Human DimensionsScience, Impacts, and Human Dimensions– Percent Scale to Indicate UncertaintyPercent Scale to Indicate Uncertainty

FindingsFindings– 1995: ‘Balance of Evidence’ Favors Human Role1995: ‘Balance of Evidence’ Favors Human Role– 2001: ‘Detectable’ Anthropogenic Change2001: ‘Detectable’ Anthropogenic Change– 2007: “Human Effect ‘Very Likely’ 2007: “Human Effect ‘Very Likely’

90% Subjective Probability90% Subjective Probability

Attacks on the IPCC ReportsAttacks on the IPCC Reports A Minority of ‘Climate Skeptics,’ a Few of them A Minority of ‘Climate Skeptics,’ a Few of them

Scientifically Qualified, Argue that the Danger from Scientifically Qualified, Argue that the Danger from Global Warming is Minor or Non-ExistentGlobal Warming is Minor or Non-Existent– Generous Backing from the Fossil Fuel Industry Allows Generous Backing from the Fossil Fuel Industry Allows

them a High Profilethem a High Profile Their Criticisms of the ‘Mainstream Position’ Did Their Criticisms of the ‘Mainstream Position’ Did

Not Hold UpNot Hold Up New Scientific Evidence Has Eroded the Position of New Scientific Evidence Has Eroded the Position of

the Climate Skeptics, although they have not the Climate Skeptics, although they have not Stopped Repeating Discredited ArgumentsStopped Repeating Discredited Arguments

What Began as a Legitimate Scientific Argument What Began as a Legitimate Scientific Argument Evolved into a Major Disinformation Campaign that Evolved into a Major Disinformation Campaign that is Still Underwayis Still Underway

Scientists Struggle to Overcome Well-Orchestrated Scientists Struggle to Overcome Well-Orchestrated Campaign of Ignorant or Malevolent CriticismCampaign of Ignorant or Malevolent Criticism

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Binding Targets for Developed Country Binding Targets for Developed Country Parties: 5% Below 1990 Levels by 2012Parties: 5% Below 1990 Levels by 2012

No Binding Targets for Developing Country No Binding Targets for Developing Country PartiesParties

‘‘Clean Development Mechanism’: Get Credit Clean Development Mechanism’: Get Credit for Emissions Reductions by Paying for for Emissions Reductions by Paying for Emission Savings in Other CountriesEmission Savings in Other Countries

Seen as First Step: Little Net Emissions Seen as First Step: Little Net Emissions Reduction because Increased Emissions in Reduction because Increased Emissions in Developing Countries Compensate for Developing Countries Compensate for Decreased Emissions in Developed CountriesDecreased Emissions in Developed Countries

Underlying Ethical IssueUnderlying Ethical Issue: Who : Who Should Pay the Costs of Should Pay the Costs of

Precautionary Measures?Precautionary Measures? Developing Countries Argue for More Developing Countries Argue for More

Time: the Advanced Countries Put the Time: the Advanced Countries Put the COCO22 into the Atmosphere into the Atmosphere– LDC Annual Contribution has only just LDC Annual Contribution has only just

Caught Up with OECD Countries’ Caught Up with OECD Countries’ – LDC Aggregate Contribution Catches up in LDC Aggregate Contribution Catches up in

~2100~2100 OK, But We’re All on the Same Planet – OK, But We’re All on the Same Planet –

and China is Now the #1 Emitterand China is Now the #1 Emitter

US Senate (1998) Refuses (95-0) to Ratify Kyoto Protocol Unless LDCs Agree to

Conservation Targets.Newly Installed Bush Administration Abandons Kyoto Protocol on the Grounds of

Damage to Economy ‘Inadequate Science.’Little Net Reduction in Emissions

Refusal to Try to Improve Kyoto Furiously Resented by Europeans

Present SituationPresent Situation Kyoto Entered into Force, Kyoto Entered into Force, EU Has Instituted a Mandatory Trading Regime, EU Has Instituted a Mandatory Trading Regime,

and EU Members have Instituted Domestic and EU Members have Instituted Domestic Measures so as to Reach 2012 TargetsMeasures so as to Reach 2012 Targets– UK and Germany have an Advantage Because of UK and Germany have an Advantage Because of

Special Circumstances: UK Shrank Inefficient Coal Special Circumstances: UK Shrank Inefficient Coal Industry, Switched to Natural Gas. East Germany Industry, Switched to Natural Gas. East Germany Closed Massively Inefficient Industry. Closed Massively Inefficient Industry.

Targets, However Modest, are Now Out of Reach Targets, However Modest, are Now Out of Reach for Nearly All Other Countries, Given 1990s for Nearly All Other Countries, Given 1990s Economic Boom.Economic Boom.– US Target Would Require 30% Cut in Energy Use.US Target Would Require 30% Cut in Energy Use.

Policies for Reducing Policies for Reducing EmissionsEmissions

Regulated Emissions ReductionRegulated Emissions Reduction Market-Based Policy InstrumentsMarket-Based Policy Instruments

– Carbon Tax (i.e., a Tax on COCarbon Tax (i.e., a Tax on CO22 Emissions) Emissions) Economically Logical but Politically DifficultEconomically Logical but Politically Difficult

– Emissions Trading (not formally a tax)Emissions Trading (not formally a tax)

A Cap-and-Trade Bill (Waxman-Markey) has A Cap-and-Trade Bill (Waxman-Markey) has Passed the House, is Pending in the SenatePassed the House, is Pending in the Senate– Passage Not Assured: Impact is Especially Passage Not Assured: Impact is Especially

Heavy on States Dependent on Coal for PowerHeavy on States Dependent on Coal for Power

Post-Kyoto Regime Now Being Post-Kyoto Regime Now Being NegotiatedNegotiated

Cap-and-Trade IssuesCap-and-Trade Issues How is the Cap to be Set?How is the Cap to be Set?

– By Science? by Politics? or Both?By Science? by Politics? or Both? How are Allowances to be Allocated?How are Allowances to be Allocated?

– By Auction? By Past COBy Auction? By Past CO22 Emissions? Emissions? Are there to be Escape Clauses (‘Off-Ramps’) if Carbon Are there to be Escape Clauses (‘Off-Ramps’) if Carbon

Credits Become Too Expensive?Credits Become Too Expensive? Are International Transactions Allowed?Are International Transactions Allowed?

– ‘‘Joint Implementation’? ‘Clean Development Mechanism’?Joint Implementation’? ‘Clean Development Mechanism’? How Will Free Riders be Dealt with?How Will Free Riders be Dealt with?

– Impose a ‘Border Adjustment’ on Imports from Non-Impose a ‘Border Adjustment’ on Imports from Non-Participating Countries? (It’s in the House Bill.)Participating Countries? (It’s in the House Bill.)

– This may or may not pass muster with WTO, and Would This may or may not pass muster with WTO, and Would Threaten a Major Trade WarThreaten a Major Trade War

Existing Emissions MarketsExisting Emissions Markets

Public SystemsPublic Systems– European Union, 2005European Union, 2005

Teething Troubles: Price Collapse in 2006 from Teething Troubles: Price Collapse in 2006 from Over-AllocationOver-Allocation

Private SectorPrivate Sector– Internal Corporate Programs (BP)Internal Corporate Programs (BP)– Voluntary Multi-Corporation ProgramsVoluntary Multi-Corporation Programs

Chicago Voluntary ExchangeChicago Voluntary Exchange

Voluntary OffsetsVoluntary Offsets

Technical Post-Kyoto IssuesTechnical Post-Kyoto Issues Collaboration on Technology DevelopmentCollaboration on Technology Development

Carbon Sequestration is Particularly Important, Since China and Carbon Sequestration is Particularly Important, Since China and India Have Huge Coal ReservesIndia Have Huge Coal Reserves

Forests as Carbon SinksForests as Carbon Sinks– Credit for Planting Forests Credit for Planting Forests – Credit for ‘Avoided Deforestation’?Credit for ‘Avoided Deforestation’?

How to Verify?How to Verify? Who Gets the Money?Who Gets the Money?

– Government?Government?– Concessionaires?Concessionaires?– Forest People? Forest People?

‘‘Geoengineering’: Fertilizing the Ocean to Increase Carbon Geoengineering’: Fertilizing the Ocean to Increase Carbon Capture by PlanktonCapture by Plankton

– This May be within the Resources of Wealthy IndividualsThis May be within the Resources of Wealthy Individuals– An International Legal LimboAn International Legal Limbo

Post-Kyoto Non-Technical Post-Kyoto Non-Technical IssuesIssues

Targets? – Binding or Not?Targets? – Binding or Not? ‘‘Measurable, Verifiable, Reportable’ Measurable, Verifiable, Reportable’

(MRP) Actions(MRP) Actions

MoneyMoney

Bali Action Plan (2008): Basis for Bali Action Plan (2008): Basis for Post-Kyoto RegimePost-Kyoto Regime

Small Adjustment Fund to Help LDCs Adjust to Small Adjustment Fund to Help LDCs Adjust to Global WarmingGlobal Warming

Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation (REDD)(REDD)

Non-Binding National Action Plans for Non-Binding National Action Plans for Developing countriesDeveloping countries

Parallel Negotiating Tracks (Complicated!)Parallel Negotiating Tracks (Complicated!)– Technical Cooperation (Under UNFCC)Technical Cooperation (Under UNFCC)– Working Group on Extending KyotoWorking Group on Extending Kyoto

An International Conference in An International Conference in Copenhagen in December Begins Copenhagen in December Begins to Negotiate Post-Kyoto Regimeto Negotiate Post-Kyoto Regime

US Failure to Pass Waxman-Markey Hangs over US Failure to Pass Waxman-Markey Hangs over ConferenceConference

Developing Countries Refuse Binding Targets but Developing Countries Refuse Binding Targets but Acknowledge Importance Acknowledge Importance

Progress on REDD, Less on Other Issues, No Formal Progress on REDD, Less on Other Issues, No Formal AgreementAgreement

Obama Negotiates Last-Minute ‘Accord’Obama Negotiates Last-Minute ‘Accord’– Legal Status Unclear – But If Nations Comply, Who Cares?Legal Status Unclear – But If Nations Comply, Who Cares?

Major Economies Forum Will Continue Discussions Major Economies Forum Will Continue Discussions and Technical Cooperationand Technical Cooperation– Numerous Bilateral Agreements Exist, at Least on PaperNumerous Bilateral Agreements Exist, at Least on Paper

Take-Home Lessons (STIA)Take-Home Lessons (STIA) Science Puts Issue on the Agenda, Science Puts Issue on the Agenda, Governments Recognize the Value of Regular Governments Recognize the Value of Regular

Scientific Advice, and Integrate it into the Scientific Advice, and Integrate it into the Diplomatic Process Diplomatic Process

However, Even the Strongest Scientific Consensus However, Even the Strongest Scientific Consensus is not Proof against a Determined Counter-Attack is not Proof against a Determined Counter-Attack by Powerful Vested Interestsby Powerful Vested Interests

Multilateral For a are Tough Places to Negotiate Multilateral For a are Tough Places to Negotiate Complex Technical IssuesComplex Technical Issues

Sovereign Nations Decide the Political Response – Sovereign Nations Decide the Political Response – but Nature Has the Last Wordbut Nature Has the Last Word

Take-Home Lessons Take-Home Lessons (International Relations)(International Relations)

A Change in Our Notion of Security?A Change in Our Notion of Security?– If the Ocean Rises and Floods the Coast, What If the Ocean Rises and Floods the Coast, What

Good was the Navy?Good was the Navy? A Blurring of the Distinction Between Public A Blurring of the Distinction Between Public

and Private Issuesand Private Issues– Exxon’s and BP’s Policies are as Important as Exxon’s and BP’s Policies are as Important as

Australia’sAustralia’s A Blurring of The Distinction Between A Blurring of The Distinction Between

Domestic and International IssuesDomestic and International Issues– If COIf CO22 Originating in the US Affects the European Originating in the US Affects the European

Climate and the Flow of Major Asian Rivers, US Climate and the Flow of Major Asian Rivers, US Energy Policy Isn’t a Purely Domestic Issue Any Energy Policy Isn’t a Purely Domestic Issue Any More. It’s ‘Intermestic’!More. It’s ‘Intermestic’!

– The Same is True of China and IndiaThe Same is True of China and India

We Will Return to these Issues We Will Return to these Issues When We Discuss Energy.When We Discuss Energy.