GSB Contrarian Gold Report November 2014 / Jason Hamlin

S&P 500 Adds 5%, Hits New All-Time High

Stocks made a v-shaped move during October, initially declining sharply and then bouncing back to a new all-time high. This happened despite the official end of the FED's quantitative easing program and slowing economic growth around the globe.

Labor Department figures showed the unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% and employers added 214,000 workers during October. This was lower than the 231k new jobs that analysts had expected, but the prior two months were revised upward by a net 31,000 jobs.

The labor force participation rate nudged upwards slightly to 62.8% - still near thelowest level in four decades (62.7%). The employment report highlighted 2.2 million "marginally attached" workers, people not in the labor force who want work, yet are not counted as unemployed because they haven't actively sought employment.

The employment-population ratio also moved higher from 59.0% to 59.2%. This is probably the best measure of the true health of the labor market. It is up from 58.2% in October of 2013, so there has been some improvement worth noting. However, many of the new jobs arelower-paying part-time jobs, so they are essentially swapping quality for quantity.

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Economic data gave mixed results over the past month. In the United States, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 59.0 in October, far above the 56.1 consensus estimate. However, China's October manufacturing PMI fell from 51.1 to 50.8 and the Eurozone manufacturing index slipped from 50.7 to 50.6. In Germany, factory orders rose just 0.8% in September after falling 4.2% in August. The rise was a third of the consensus forecast.

Retail sales dropped more than forecast in September on a broad pullback in spendingthat indicates American consumers provided less of a boost for the economy in the third quarter. Confirming this move, consumer spending unexpectedly fell 0.2% in September.

The IMF cut its global growth forecast from 4.0% to 3.8%. I suspect 3.8% may be a little too optimistic, but time will tell. China’s Q3 GDP grew at the slowest rate in 5 years.

Lower oil prices will help the economy, but the end to the FED's QE program is likely to counter any positive impact from lower energy prices. Of course, the FED is still buying bonds and holding interest rates near zero, so their stimulus efforts are not over, just reduced. The reduction was significant and many believe the FED will be forced to initiate a new QE program or similar increase in stimulus in the coming months as the market slides.

But for the time being, the party continues. Check out the v-shaped recovery from the S&P 500 during the past month. As the end of QE approached, equities sold off sharply. It was one of the worst declines in years and dropped the index through trend line support, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This degree of breakdown has not occurred since 2012.

Yet here we are back to new highs. 'Buy the dip' (BTD) appears to have been the correct moveagain, at least so far. However, the RSI is once again approaching overbought territory and I suspect we will see additional weakness in equities between now and year end.

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Energy Market Update

Oil fell sharply during the past month, falling nearly $25 and dropping out of the uptrend that had been in place for nearly five years. It fell through both moving averages and the RSI is now flashing oversold.

Theories suggest that the price is being managed downward in order to hurt Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Whatever the reason, the Saudis are not reducing production to support prices as they have done in the past.

Some believe that Saudi Arabia is trying to deprive Russia of valuable oil revenues because of its support of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria. Saudi Arabia is opposed to Assad. Another theory is that Saudi Arabia is manipulating the markets to try to quash competition, especially from new oil producers like those involved with the Canadian oil sands and the shale revolution in the U.S. This oil is more expensive to produce and margins get squeezed, while Saudi oil is still profitable at $75/barrel. Saudi Arabia also has $500B in reserves and the ability to ride out the low prices.

Conspiracy theories aside, increased production iscertainly a contributing factor to the price decline.Last month I stated: “I think absent a majorescalation in the Middle East, we are likely to seethe oil price drop into a new range of $70-$80.” ButI didn't expect prices to drop this far, this fast.

I think we are likely to see support around $75 holdas the RSI has now become oversold. This could be an opportunity to buy the dip and pick upvaluable energy producers at discount prices. However, we can't rule out the possibility that Saudi Arabia and OPEC will continue using their power to keep oil prices low for an extendedperiod of time and force competitors out of business.

Other than our long-term energy plays, I remain on the sidelines. But I will be looking for a bottoming pattern and opportunity to pick up oversold and undervalued energy plays on this dip. We will need to be patient and have a long-term time horizon, but I believe oil prices willcontinue their upward trajectory over the next five years. I added a new energy stock to the GSB Watch List this month.

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GasLog (NYSE: GLOG) Core Position

Bio: GLOG is a growth-oriented international owner & operator of liquefiednatural gas (LNG) carriers, providing support as part of their LNG logisticschain. Their fleet consists of 15 wholly-owned LNG carriers, many of whichboast the latest tri-fuel diesel electric (TFDE) propulsion technology. GLOG pays a quarterly dividend.

Update: GLOG fell 4% in the past month,but remains up 16% YTD. The stock isdown from nearly $32 in July to under$20 currently. I view this as an excellentopportunity to pick up a high growth,dividend paying stock at a good price.

The technical chart shows the dip to $16and subsequent rebound back above thelong-term trend line. In my estimation,anything under $20 is going to seem verycheap a year from now.

Status: Add to positions under $20

US Geothermal (NYSE: HTM) Speculative Position

Bio: U.S. Geothermal is a renewable energy company focused ondeveloping and operating clean, sustainable electric power fromgeothermal energy resources. Not only has the company been growingrevenues consistently, but they reported net income for the first time during Q3 of 2013.

Update: HTM climbed 8% in the past month and is up 48% YTD. The company plans to release its 3rd quarter 2014 financial results on Thursday November 13th, after the market close. During October, U.S. Geothermal announced the acquisition of Earth Power Resources. This gives the company geothermal leases covering 26,017 acres in Nevada and

three projects with energy potential in therange of 158 to 359 Megawatts.

The technical chart shows HTM falling below support and bouncing back in the past few weeks. The RSI is pointing higher and I expect a move back towards $1.00 in the next 12 months.

Status: Establish/add to positions under$0.55.

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Agriculture Update

The FAO food price index averaged 192.3 points in October 2014, its lowest level since August 2010. The drop in food prices is a welcomed development, but one wonders how long it can last given the widespread drought in Western farming regions.

Input Capital (INP or INPCF) Speculative Position

Bio: Input enters into multi-year canola streaming contracts, purchasing afixed portion of the canola produced, at a fixed price, for the duration of thecontract. Canola is the largest and most profitable crop in Canada. Input isfocused on farmers with quality production, excellent upside yield potential and strong management. Input is owner-operated with 26% inside ownership.

Update: Input's share price fell 9% in thepast month and is up 7% YTD on theCanadian exchange and down 1% on thepink sheets. An explosion at a canola plantin October will delay the completion of2013 crop deliveries and the revenueassociated with it by several weeks. Fiscal2015 Q2 results will be released onNovember 28, after market close.

The technical chart remains bearish,although support at C$2.00 may hold going forward. Status: Hold

iPath Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN (JO) Speculative Position

Bio: The iPath Bloomberg Coffee Total Return Sub-Index ETN is designed to provide investors with exposure to the Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Subindex Total ReturnService Mark.

Update: JO fell 15% in the past month, but remains up 58% YTD. This drop in price comes despite the worsening drought in the #1 coffee producing nation of Brazil. Much will depend on whether the rains return in the coming months.

The chart shows a decline below the key moving averages to what could be a third higher low, after a triple top in October. It will be important for the fund to bounce off support to confirm another higher low and maintain our bullish outlook.

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Gold Declines 3.5% Before Bouncing Gold dropped over $100 from $1,255 to around $1,130 before rebounding on Friday. The triple bottom that I thought might provide support failed, but gold has quickly bounced back towards this important support around $1,180.

It will be important for gold to climb back above this support level in order for our short-term sentiment to remain bullish. The $40 advance on Friday may be a sign of things to come as investors step in to gobble up as much gold as they can get at discounted prices. A follow-up move higher on Monday would confirm a key reversal for gold going forward. The RSI is pointing higher and has

plenty of room to run before gold becomes overbought. Some speculate that gold will be held down below $1,200 until the December futures contract expires and then be free to rise.

Silver Falls Another 9%, Briefly Hitting $15

The silver price fell sharply during the past few weeks, dropping from the October high of $17.82, all the way to $15. It has since bounced back to $15.83 and looks poised for more gains this week. Last month I mentioned $15 being the next support level to test and it occurred on Thursday. It will be very important for this level to hold going forward.

Backing out the chart, we can see the importance of support around $15 and down to $14.60. This is where the downward sloping support trend line intersects the horizontal support line from 2009/2010. This suggests that Friday's bounce might be sustained and continued this coming week.

To the downside, a test of $14.60 couldbe in the cards. However, the RSI is

deeply oversold and physical buying has spiked higher in the past few weeks.

I sense that the drop to $15 Thursday might be the absolute bottom for silver and I stepped in Friday to purchase more SLW and physical coins. What happens on Monday will give us a good indication if this instinct is correct or not. We have additional funds ready to buy if the

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price drops again, but this seems like a good time to at least start buying in tranches or nibbling on the dip. As usual, so much will depend on what the deep-pocketed leveraged players on the COMEX decided to do with their paper trading games.

Gold and Silver Fundamental Factors Thursday's major decline in precious metals looked like capitulation selling. It coincided with

a move by the USD to fresh highs not seen since 2010. However, the dollar index is now up against major resistance just above 88. This was the high from July of 2010 and may be a difficult threshold for the dollar to break through.

The RSI is flashing overbought once again, but as we have seen, it can remain in such a state for a while. Previous declines occurred following

the RSI becoming overbought, but the most recent decline was a shallow correction followed by a new high for the USD. The rally appears to have run its course, but some analysts believethe dollar will continue higher well into 2015. I think we will see another pullback this week, which will help push precious metals higher.

Over time, I think gold will de-link from the USD and be able to move higher alongside the dollar. But we should keep in mind that a strong USD does not equate to a strong dollar. The USD is only strong against other weaker currencies. While this relationship can persist a while longer, the global forces of de-dollarization will eventually be too much for the USD to withstand. The writing is on the wall. And no matter what the dollar does against other fiat currencies, I do not expect it to remain strong against tangible assets such as gold and silver.

Speaking of de-dollarization, Russia and China announced a second mega-gas deal whereby Beijing will become the largest buyer of Russian gas. The documents provide for the export of30 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to China annually for a 30-year period. This means China has now eclipsed Europe as Russia's biggest, and most strategic natural gas client.

Canada has also signed an agreement to bypass the U.S. dollar in international trade with China, and will trade using the Chinese Renminbi.

We also had signs of massive not-for-profit selling in the gold market during October and FT reported that UBS is about to "settle" allegations of gold and silver rigging.

In other news, Greenspan made some bullish comments about Gold during October, stating it was superior to paper currencies. And the U.S. Mint announced it was out of Silver Eagles due to massive demand on the price dip towards $15. Physical buying is picking up and

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should continue through the strong seasonal months from November through March. But it is not just coin sales that is causing demand to spike, Russia has expanded its gold stockpile the most since 1998 and analysts are estimating that China may have doubled its reserves over the past few years. The bottom line here is that low prices are not likely here to stay.

Current and Target Precious Metals Stocks

Central Fund of Canada (CEF) Core Position

Bio: Central Fund of Canada is an investment holding company. It invests assets inunencumbered, allocated and segregated gold and silver bullion, in international barform. At least 95% of their assets are in gold and silver bullion, split roughly 50/50.

Update: CEF fell 7% in the past month and is trading at a 6.7% discount. CEFworks well if you want exposure to bullion in a retirement account. However, I decided to sellpart of my position in the past week, as I prefer to hold physical metals in my possession and want to free up investment funds to take advantage of oversold mining shares.

Silver Wheaton (SLW) Core Position

Bio: Silver Wheaton is the largest metals streaming company in theworld. The company currently has fourteen silver purchaseagreements and two precious metals agreements where, in exchangefor an upfront payment, it has the right to purchase all or a portion of the silver production, at a low fixed cost, from high-quality mines located in politically stable regions. By 2017, annual attributable production is anticipated to increase significantly to approximately 43 million silver equivalent ounces.

Update: Silver Wheaton fell a modest 3.5% in the past month. It had dipped below $17 for the first time since early 2010, but promptly rebounded towards $19. The company will release Q3 results on November 12th.

The technical chart shows SLW dipping briefly below $17, before bouncing back quickly. There is support in the $16.75 to $17.50 range. The RSI is pointing higher with plenty of room to run.

I added shares on Friday and believe the stock is offering long-term investors tremendous value under $20.

Status: Buy/add below $20

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Sandstorm Gold (CVE: SSL or SAND) Core Position

Bio: Sandstorm is run by the previous CFO of Silver Wheaton – Nolan Watson.By making upfront payments to its partners, Sandstorm receives volume-basedproduction payments (i.e. metal stream deals). They get all of the upside ofexploration and new discoveries from their partners, with fixed cash costs and reduced risk. In 2014, Sandstorm should record annual gold production of at least 40,000 ounces. The company expects a 25%increase in gold production over the next two years.

Update: Sandstorm dropped by double digits again in October, down 34%. SAND will release Q3 financials on November 13th. The company has run into some issues with partner mines, made some questionable investments and has lost investor confidence. However, all of the bad news for SAND has been priced into shares and this article provides a compelling long case for SAND, arguing that the market is essentially giving ZERO value to their streams. Their royalties alone justify the current market cap and clearly their streams are worth a whole lot more than zero dollars. Furthermore, the company could be a compelling takeover candidate at current pricing. Lastly, both Primero Mining and Metanor Resources released encouraging Q3 results that are bullish for Sandstorm.

The technical chart for SAND is ugly.During Oct, the share price dropped toits lowest levels since 2009. It isoversold by all measures and I believewe will see shares climb back above $3and towards $4 in the coming weeks. Isee upside potential of 50% and verylittle downside risk at this juncture.

While I have been disappointed with theperformance of SAND and some of thedecisions of management, I am holdingmy shares and may even consider adding to my position under $3. It is not because SAND is my favorite gold stock, but because I view it as one of the most oversold and undervalued gold stocks currently trading. If gold continues higher this week, I think we will see SAND make a big move and offer excellent leverage to the movement of the gold price. Status: Risk-tolerant investors might consider picking up shares on this dip

Franco Nevada (NYSE: FNV) Core Position

Bio: Franco-Nevada is a gold royalty and stream company. They have adiversified portfolio of cash-flow producing assets and interests in someof the largest gold development and exploration projects in the world. Itsbusiness model benefits from rising commodity prices and new discoveries while limiting exposure to operating and capital cost inflation. Franco-Nevada has substantial cash with no debt and is generatingcash flow from its portfolio that is being used to expand its asset portfolio and pay monthly dividends.

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Update: FNV dropped just 3% in the past month, and remains up 24% YTD. There was no major news in the past month. During Q3, the company's net income fell slightly from $35.3 million to $33.2 million as the gold price fell. But they reported a 24% gain in attributable gold eq production, which rose from 56,000 to 70,000 ounces. The increase in production was due to new gold streams from partners Klondex Mines and Teranga Gold, as well as growth in gold production from the Detour Gold Mine. FNV increased guidance and declared

a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share (current yield just under 2%). Franco Nevada has a strong balance sheet and has been acquiring streams/royalties aggressively during this dip.

The technical chart shows FNV dropping below its longer-term trend channel and below $45 briefly. It also fell through both key moving averages. The RSI is pointing higher and has room to run. Last month I said to buy

any dip under $45 and if you did so, you picked the bottom of the latest dip. Status: Buy

SilverCrest (NYSE: SVLC) Speculative Position

Bio: SilverCrest’s flagship property is the 100%-owned Santa Elena Mine inSonora, México. The mine is a high-grade, epithermal gold and silverproducer, with low costs. Their expansion plan is expected to increaseproduction by 50%+ in 2014. The expansion has a base case IRR of 88%. Their La Joya property in Durango State has stated resources nearing 200 million ounces of Ag equivalent.

Update: SilverCrest bounced 10% on Friday, but was still down 8% in the past month. Q3 production climbed 26% to a new record. Production is expected to significantly increase in Q4 to meet 2014 guidance between 3.0 to 3.3 million AgEq ounces. The current focus is to optimize ball mill grind size in efforts to achieve throughput tonnages at or above the nameplate capacity of 3,000 tpd.Financials will be released Nov 12th

after the close of markets.

The technical chart shows a drop to$1.23 this past week. If it holds, itwould mark a higher low versus thedrip to $1.00 in 2011 and $1.13 in 2013.The RSI has been bouncing aroundnear oversold territory, but has turnedup after the rally on Friday.

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Status: Hold. I considered selling SVLC, but want to give them a change to finalize the transition to underground mining and see if Q4 results come in as strong as anticipated. I would not add until we see these results.

Royal Gold (NYSE: RGLD) Core Position

Bio: Royal Gold is engaged in the acquisition, and management of preciousmetals royalties and streams. Their gold-focused portfolio includes 38 producingand 20 development-stage royalties or similar interests.

Update: RGLD ended the month down just 2.8% after a 7% rally on Friday. Goldman Sachsupgraded the stock in the past week and gave RGLD a price target of $80. They reported net income of $18.7 million, or $0.29/share during the latest quarter, up from $15.2 million or $0.23/share. This came on revenue of $69 million, which was below estimates.

RGLD entered into a $175 million gold stream transaction with Euromax Resources during October. Royal Gold will make two advance deposit payments totaling $15 million towards completion of the definitive feasibility study on the Ilovitza project, followed by a third payment of $160 million towards project construction. Euromax will deliver 25% of any gold produced from the Ilovitza project until 525,000 ounces have been delivered, and 12.5%

thereafter at 25% of the spot price at time of delivery.

The chart shows RGLD bouncing off support just above the $55 level we had previously charted. It still needs to climbabove the moving averages and I expect a test of resistance at $82 if gold starts moving higher in the coming months.

Status: Buy/add on any dip under $60

Lake Shore Gold (NYSE: LSG) Speculative Position

Bio: Lake Shore Gold is a gold producer pursuing rapid growth through theexploration, development and operation of three wholly owned, multi-million ounce gold complexes in the Timmins Gold Camp. The Company is incommercial production at both the Timmins West and Bell Creek mines, with material being delivered for processing to the Bell Creek Mill. An expansion of the mill, to a capacity of 3,000 tonnes per day was completed in the third quarter of 2013. Gold production is expected to grow from 134k ounces in 2013 to 170k ounces in 2014, growth of 27%! I view LSG as a potential takeover target for Goldcorp.

Update: Lake Shore Gold dropped 12% in the past month, despite a 12% bounce on Friday. The stock is still up 78% year to date. The company reported $0.02 earnings per share (EPS)

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for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.03. RBC Capital downgraded shares of Lake Shore Gold Corp to “underperform” but kept a $1.30 price target on the stock.

The technical chart shows LSG fallingbelow the trend line support in October.Shares dropped below $0.70, before astrong bounce back to $0.82. I expectthe share price to climb back above$1.00 in the next few months andbelieve the company will offer excellentleverage during the next gold advance.The RSI is pointing higher with plentyof room to push higher.

Status: Buy/add under $0.80

Endeavour Mining (TSE: EDV or EDVMF) Speculative Position

Bio: Endeavour is a growing gold producer. Endeavour owns four goldmines producing more than 400,000 ounces per year in Mali, Ghana,Burkina Faso, and Côte d'Ivoire. In addition, in Nov 2013 a Feasibility Study for the Houndé Project wascompleted showing potential for 180,000 ounces per year over 8 years. The project is now in permitting.Endeavour is projecting 400k to 440k ounces in 2014, which represents growth of around 30%.

Update: Endeavour fell 28% in the past month, making it our worst performing position again. The stock is now down 11% YTD. This occurred despite impressive drill results and beating earnings estimates. In just 9 months of the year, the company has now already produced 346,000 ounces of gold, and is actually on track to beat its guidance of 400-440,000 ounces of gold. Their Agbaou Gold Mine has been exceeding expectations. Q3

adjusted EBITDA was $37.6 million with an AISC of just $991.

The technical chart shows a drop just below the support we have charted and a massive 15% bounce back above it on Friday. The RSI is oversold and I believe shares are very undervalued at current levels. Cannacord lowered theirprice target to $1.10, which still suggests upside of more than 125%!

Status: Buy/add to positions on dip

Keep track of important gold news in real time on the Gold Stock Bull Twitter page

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Gold Stock Bull Watch ListThe GSB Watch List contains companies that I believe have potential forrapid price appreciation over the next 12 to 24 months. As these companiesmake progress or come out with news, they may get added to the portfolio.

New Additions to the Watch List This Month: Roxgold on insider buying and my

belief that the company is ripe for a takeover from Newmont. They own the Yaramoko Gold Project,

located in Burkina Faso, West Africa. It is one of the highest grade gold projects in the world and is

economic even at $1,1oo gold. Buy on any dip below C$0.50. I also added Belo Sun Mining which

is developing Volta Grande in Brazil and was recently given a price target of more than 4X current

price. Lastly, I added Bellatrix Exploration, which is an energy play with huge insider buying

recently. The stock is down 50% since May and I believe we could see a sharp rebound in the coming

months. They have a P/E of 7, price target of more than double the current share price and the

company recently reported record production, revenues and net profits.

Top Performers This Month: INO +11% / FTNT +11% / RIC +14% / BAA +15% / SFM

+10% / CWCO +10%

Precious Metals

Kirkland Lake Gold (TSE: KGI or KGILF) Golden Queen Mining (TSE: GQM or GQMNF)

Belo Sun Mining (TSE: BSX) NEW Timmins Gold (NYSEMKT: TGD)

Richmont Mines (NYSEMKT: RIC) RoxGold (CVE: ROG or ROGFF)

Astur Gold (CVE: AST or ATRGF) Vista Gold (NYSEMKT: VGZ)

Guyana Goldfields (TSE: GUY / GUYFF) B2Gold Corp (NYSEMKT: BTG)

Premier Gold Mines (TSE: PG or PIRGF) IDM Mining (TSE: IDM or RVRCF)

Banro Corporation (NYSEMKT: BAA) Comstock Mining (NYSEMKT: LODE)

RoxGold (CVE: ROG or ROGFF) NEW

Agriculture / Energy

Sprott Resource Corp (TSE: SCP or SCPZF) Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ: SFM) )

Xylitol Canada (CVE: XYL) US Energy Corp (NASDAQ: USEG)

Bellatrix Exploration (NYSE: BXE) NEW

Other Sectors

Consolidated Water (NASDAQ: CWCO) Lightbridge Corp (NASDAQ: LTBR)

Focus Metals (CVE: FMS or FCSMF) Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: INO)

Fortinet Inc (NASDAQ: FTNT)

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Gold Stock Bull Portfolio The GSB portfolio had a painful month and slipped into the red for the year, down 3.8%. I am disappointed in this performance, but the portfolio is still fairing better than most minersthat are down double-digits YTD. Our top performers include RGLD (+42%) and HTM (+47%). The worst performer is EDVMF, down 44%. I cut losses on Kirkland Lake Gold after mis-timing the entry point and added Smith & Wesson on a dip towards $10. I also reduced my allocation to CEF and added to my position in SLW.

Last month I stated that “I think there could be more downside in the short-term.” That was an understatement. But I have turned increasingly bullish in recent days and decided to add SLW and physical silver on Friday. I am not trying to pick the exact bottom and backing up the truck at this point. I am simply nibbling during on this dip and subsequent bounce Friday. I have a feeling there is more upside ahead and that we have likely seen the worst.

The current portfolio, trade history and newsletter is available on the Premium Member page.

Cheers, Jason Hamlin

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed herein, are committed at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. View terms

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