GS Market_monitor 2011.01.28
Transcript of GS Market_monitor 2011.01.28
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This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solic itation to buy or sell securities.
4.7%3.5% 3.3%
1.8% 1.6%1.1%
0.4%
-0.8%-1.3% -1.6%
-2.9%
E n e r g y
I n f o
. T e c h .
I n d u s t r i a l s
F i n
a n c i a l s
S & P 5 0 0
U t i l i t i e s
H e a
l t h c a r e
D i s c r e
t i o n a r y
S t a p l e s
M a t e r i a l s
T e l e c o m
4.7%
3.5% 3.3%
1.8% 1.6%1.1%
0.4%
-0.8%-1.3% -1.6%
-2.9%
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e r g y
I n f o . T
e c h .
I n d u s t r i a l s
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S & P
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c a r e
D i s c r e t i o
n a r y
S t a
p l e s
M a t e
r i a l s
T e l e
c o m
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1/28/10 4/28/10 7/28/10 10/28/10 1/28/11
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1 /2 8/ 08 7 /2 8/ 08 1 /2 8/ 09 7 /2 8/ 09 1 /2 8/ 10 7 /2 8/ 10 1 /2 8/ 11
1
Morningstar US Equity Size & Style Returns3
10-Year Treasury Note Yields2
S&P 500 Trailing 1-Year Index Levels2
S&P 500 Sector Returns: Month-to-Date2 (As of 1/28/2011)
S&P 500 Sector Returns: Year-to-Date2 (As of 1/28/2011)
Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary.
For More Information:Contact your Goldman Sachs representative:
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Commodities 2 1/28/11 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/09
Oil ($/bar rel) $89.34 $91.38 $79.97 $79.36
Gold ($/oz) $1,336.75 $1,420.78 $1,308.35 $1,096.95
Gasoline ($/gallon) $2.724 $3.073 $2.692 $2.651
Currencies2 1/28/11 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/09
Euro ($/€) $1.3611 $1.3384 $1.3634 $1.4321
Pound ($/£) $1.5860 $1.5612 $1.5716 $1.6170
Yen (¥/$) ¥82.12 ¥81.12 ¥83.53 ¥93.02
Value C ore Growth Value Core Gro wth
0 .8 3 % 0 .19 % - 0 . 4 7% 0 . 8 3 % 0 .19 % - 0 .4 7% Small
1. 56 % 1. 12 % Large
( as of 1/ 28 / 11)
1. 8 1% 1. 4 0 % M id2 . 0 5% 1. 8 1% 1. 4 0 % 2 . 0 5%
M ont h- t o- Dat e Y ear- t o- D at e
2 . 2 5% 1. 56 % 1.12 % 2 . 2 5%
January 28, 2011
Index Returns2
(as of 1/28/2011) 1 Wee k MTD QTD YTD
DJIA -0.41% 2.26% 2.26% 2.26%S&P 500 -0.53% 1.59% 1.59% 1.59%
NASDAQ -0.09% 1.31% 1.31% 1.31%
MSCI EAFE (USD) 0.41% 2.27% 2.27% 2.27%
Barclays Aggregate 0.39% 0.27% 0.27% 0.27%
S&P GSCI 0.65% 0.98% 0.98% 0.98%
GS ART Index -0.40% -0.30% -0.30% -0.30%
Bond Rates2 1/28/11 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/09
Fed Funds Tar get 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%3-Month Libor 0.30% 0.30% 0.29% 0.25%
2- Year Tr eas ur y 0.54% 0.60% 0.43% 1.14%10- Year Tr eas ur y 3.32% 3.30% 2.51% 3.84%
2-10 slope 2.78% 2.70% 2.09% 2.70%HY Corp. spread (bps) 518 561 631 657
IG Corp. s pread (bps) 150 156 175 172EMD spread (bps) 277 274 303 288
High 4.27
Low 2.06
Current 3.32
High 1299.54
Low 1022.58
Current 1276.34
Upcoming Economic Releases1
Date Indicator GS & Co. Consensus Previous
Construction Spending (Dec) +0.5% +0.1% +0.4%
ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan) 57.5 57.9 57.0
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index 57.0 57.0 57.1
Factory Orders (Dec) -1.0% +1.0% +0.7%
Unemployment Rate (Jan) 9.5% 9.5% 9.4%
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) +175,000 +135,000 +103,000
Forecast
Tuesday
(2/1/11)
Wednesday
(2/3/11)
Thursday
(2/4/11)
Economic & Market news – GS & Co.1 The Case-Shiller home price index declined less sharply than
generally expected, falling by 0.54% in November. As the index is basedon three-month averages and we saw declines of 1% in each
September and October, this release suggests that home prices mighthave stabilized in November. On a year-to-year basis, the Case-Shiller
index is down 1.6%. Consumer confidence rose to 60.6 from 53.3 in January. The latest
reading is the highest since May 2010, with the gain split about equallybetween expectations and the assessment of the present situation.
There was a substantial improvement in job market perceptions as thegap between respondents viewing jobs as "hard to get" vs. "plentiful"
narrowed. It is consistent with our expectation of incrementalimprovement in the labor market in coming months.
New home sales rose by 17.5% to 329k in December, far ahead of
expectations. According to the report, however, almost all of theheadline increase was due to a surge in new home sales in the West of the United States. Despite the sharp December increase, new home
sales remain at depressed levels. Pending home sales, which measures changes in the number of
existing homes under sales contracts that have not yet settled, rises
slightly ahead of expectations in December. Gains were largest in theSouth, Midwest, and Northeast, but declined in the West. While this
increase is moderately good news for existing home sales, the declineof mortgage applications during the last few weeks points to weakness
in existing and new home sales during the next couple of months.
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This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solic itation to buy or sell securities. 2
GENERAL DISCLOSURES
January 28, 2011
The first two paragraphs of the disclosures below do not apply to the information sourced to footnote 1.
This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.
This material has been prepared by GSAM and is not a product of the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR) Department. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of the GIR Department or other
departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and GSAM has no obligation toprovide any updates or changes.
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The economic and market forecasts presented herein have been generated by Goldman Sachs for informational purposes as of the date of this presentation. They are based on proprietary models and there can be no assurancethat the forecasts will be achieved.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments can go down as well as up. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may
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Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. No part of this material may, without Go ldman Sachs Asset Management’s prior written consent, be ( i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in
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Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.
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and completeness of all information available from public sources.
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1 Source: Goldman, Sachs & Co. (as of 1/24/2011 – 1/28/2011)2 Source: Bloomberg (as of 1/28/2011)
3 Source: Morningstar (as of 1/28/2011)
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