GS Market_monitor 2011.01.21
Transcript of GS Market_monitor 2011.01.21
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This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solic itation to buy or sell securities.
3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0%2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
1.0%0.3%
-2.4% -2.5%
Energy
Industrials
F
inancials
Info.
Tech.
Healthcare
S&P500
Utilities
Disc
retionary
Staples
Telecom
Materials
3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0%2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
1.0%0.3%
-2.4% -2.5%
Energy
Indus
trials
Financials
Info.
Tech.
Healthcare
S&P
500
Utilities
Discretionary
Staples
Telecom
Materials
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1/21/10 4/21/10 7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
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4.5
5.0
1 /2 1/ 08 7 /2 1/0 8 1 /2 1/0 9 7 /2 1/0 9 1 /2 1/ 10 7 /2 1/1 0 1 /2 1/11
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Morningstar US Equity Size & Style Returns3
10-Year Treasury Note Yields2
S&P 500 Trailing 1-Year Index Levels2
S&P 500 Sector Returns: Month-to-Date2 (As of 1/21/2011)
S&P 500 Sector Returns: Year-to-Date2 (As of 1/21/2011)
Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary.
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Commodities 2 1/21/11 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/09
Oil ($/bar rel) $89.11 $91.38 $79.97 $79.36
Gold ($/oz) $1,342.68 $1,420.78 $1,308.35 $1,096.95
Gasoline ($/gallon) $2.724 $3.073 $2.692 $2.651
Currencies2 1/21/11 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/09
Euro ($/) $1.3621 $1.3384 $1.3634 $1.4321Pound ($/) $1.6000 $1.5612 $1.5716 $1.6170
Yen (/$) 82.57 81.12 83.53 93.02
Value Core Growth Value Core Gro wth
1.6 9 % 1. 2 8 % 0 .8 8 % 1.6 9 %
M ont h- t o- Dat e Y ear- t o- D at e
3 . 14 % 2 .52 % 1. 0 9 % 3 . 14 % 2 .52 % 1.0 9 % Large
( as of 1/ 21/ 11)
1. 2 8 % 0 . 88 % M id
0 . 58 % - 0 .3 9% - 0 . 54 % 0 . 58 % - 0 .3 9% - 0 .54 % Small
January 21, 2011
Index Returns2
(as of 1/21/2011) 1 We ek MTD QTD YTD
DJIA 0.78% 2.68% 2.68% 2.68%S&P 500 -0.75% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14%
NASDAQ -2.39% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40%
MSCI EAFE (USD) -0.01% 1.86% 1.86% 1.86%
Barclays Aggregate -0.25% -0.12% -0.12% -0.12%
S&P GSCI -0.78% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33%
GS A RT Index -0.13% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
Bond Rates2 1/21/11 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/09
Fed Funds Target 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
3-Month Libor 0.30% 0.30% 0.29% 0.25%2-Year Treasury 0.61% 0.60% 0.43% 1.14%
10-Year Treasury 3.41% 3.30% 2.51% 3.84%2-10 slope 2.79% 2.70% 2.09% 2.70%
HY Corp. spread (bps) 522 561 631 657IG Corp. spread (bps) 150 156 175 172
EMD spread (bps) 277 274 303 288
High 4.27
Low 2.06
Current 3.41
High 1295.02
Low 1022.58
Current 1283.35
Upcoming Economic Releases1
Date Indicator GS & Co. Consensus Previous
S& P/C as e Sh ille r H om e Pr ic e I nd . ( No v) - 0. 5% - 1. 0% - 1. 0%
Consumer Confidence (Jan) 53.5 54.2 52.5Wednesday(1/26/11)
New Home Sales (Dec) Flat +3.5% +5.5%
Thursday(1/27/11)
Durable Goods Orders (Dec) +1.0% +1.5% -1.3%
Real GDPQ4 Ann (Adv) +3.0% +3.5% +2.6%
Core PCE Price IndexQ4 Ann (Adv) +0.3% +0.4% +0.5%
Forecast
Friday(1/28/11)
Tuesday
(1/25/11)
Economic & Market news GS & Co.1 The Empire Manufacturing Survey increased by a more-than-
expected 2.03 points in January from a level that was revised downby about 0.6 points. The modest increase in the headline index
masks much larger gains in orders, shipments, and employment
and continues to point to firm growth in manufacturing.
Housing starts decreased by 4.3% in December with the drop led
by a 9% drop in single-family starts not far from 50-year lows set in
early 2009. Multifamily starts were up 18%, although they remain at
exceptionally low levels.
Initial claims fell a sharp 37k to 404k in the second week of the
new year, suggesting that the surge reported for the preceding
week was probably a processing payback for earlier low holiday-
week readings. The latest reading on continuing claims was also
better than expected, falling for the third week by 26k to 3.86mm.
Existing home sales roseby a more-than-expected 12.3% in
December. In a remarkably even performance across the country,
sales rose at a double-digit pace in all four major census regions.
The Philadelphia Fed Survey held roughly steady in January, at
19.3 versus 20.8 in December, but the composition of the report
was substantially stronger. The report showed broad growth in
orders and employment, and existing home sales rising faster than
expectations.
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This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solic itation to buy or sell securities. 2
GENERAL DISCLOSURES
January 21, 2011
The first two paragraphs of the disclosures below do not apply to the information sourced to footnote 1.
This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.
This material has been prepared by GSAM and is not a product of the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR) Department. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of the GIR Department or other
departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and GSAM has no obligation toprovide any updates or changes.
The information contained in this presentation is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations. This presentation makes no implied or expressrecommendations concerning the manner in which any clients account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the clients investment objectives.
This presentation is for general information purposes only. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. This information does notrepresent any Goldman Sachs product.
Special risks are inherent in international investing including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political, and economic events.
The economic and market forecasts presented herein have been generated by Goldman Sachs for informational purposes as of the date of this presentation. They are based on proprietary models and there can be no assurancethat the forecasts will be achieved.
Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives,restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance.
Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may changematerially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.
Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments can go down as well as up. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may
occur.
Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. No part of this material may, without Go ldman Sachs Asset Managements prior written consent, be ( i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in
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Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.
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and completeness of all information available from public sources.
This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
1 Source: Goldman, Sachs & Co. (as of 1/18/2011 1/21/2011)2 Source: Bloomberg (as of 1/21/2011)
3 Source: Morningstar (as of 1/21/2011)
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