Annual Global Power Generation Forecasts 2011

Growth Opportunities in the Energy & Power Industry to 2030

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Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Installed Capacity Forecasts (World), 2010-2030

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Electricity Generation Forecasts (World), 2010-2030

Global installed power generation capacity is forecast to rise from 5,015 GW in 2010 to 7,906 GW in 2030, with electricity generation rising from 20,834 TWh to 32,750 TWh over the same period.

To meet rising demand for electrical energy, installed capacity will have grown by 32% in 2020, and by 58% in 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

All fuel sources apart from oil will expand but coal will remain the dominant fuel source throughout the forecast period, accounting for nearly 28% of installed capacity and over 34% of generation in 2030.

World Power GenerationInstalled Capacity and Electricity Generation

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Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Coal31.1%

Oil5.3%

Gas24.8%

Nuclear7.6%

Hydro19.2%

Wind8.1%

Other renewables

3.8%

FuelGW

(2010)GW

(2015)GW

(2020)GW

(2025)GW

(2030)CAGR

(2010-20)CAGR

(2020-30)

Coal 1,605 1,918 2,055 2,106 2,185 2.5% 0.6%

Oil 435 429 349 292 251 (2.2)% (3.2)%

Gas 1,296 1,527 1,635 1,750 1,920 2.4% 1.6%

Nuclear 396 430 505 558 612 2.5% 1.9%

Hydro 992 1,119 1,271 1,410 1,520 2.5% 1.8%

Wind 194 361 536 700 848 10.7% 4.7%

Other renewables 96 157 252 388 570 10.1% 8.5%

Total 5,015 5,941 6,603 7,204 7,906 2.8% 1.8%

World Power GenerationInstalled Capacity Forecast

2010 – 5,015 GW 2020 – 6,603 GW 2030 – 7,906 GW

Coal27.6%

Oil3.2%

Gas24.3%

Nuclear7.7%

Hydro19.2%

Wind10.7%

Other renewables

7.2%

Coal32.0%

Oil8.7% Gas

25.8%

Nuclear7.9%

Hydro19.8%

Wind3.9%

Other renewables

1.9%

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Installed Capacity Forecasts by Fuel (World), 2010, 2020 and 2030

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Coal34.4%

Oil1.6% Gas

21.4%

Nuclear14.0%

Hydro16.0%

Wind6.7%

Other renewables

5.9%

FuelTWh

(2010)TWh

(2015)TWh

(2020)TWh

(2025)TWh

(2030)CAGR

(2010-20)CAGR

(2020-30)

Coal 8,503 10,190 10,642 10,971 11,257 2.3% 0.6%

Oil 973 793 680 606 514 (3.5)% (2.8)%

Gas 4,416 5,243 5,820 6,390 7,013 2.8% 1.9%

Nuclear 2,798 3,120 3,712 4,150 4,593 2.9% 2.2%

Hydro 3,380 3,844 4,369 4,846 5,238 2.6% 1.8%

Wind 366 756 1,226 1,728 2,210 12.8% 6.1%

Other renewables 397 589 870 1,312 1,925 8.2% 8.3%

Total 20,834 24,535 27,319 30,003 32,750 2.7% 1.8%

World Power GenerationElectricity Generation Forecast

2010 – 20,834 TWh 2020 – 27,319 TWh 2030 – 32,750 TWh

Coal40.8%

Oil4.7% Gas

21.2%

Nuclear13.4%Hydro

16.2%

Wind1.8%

Other renewables

1.9%

Coal39.0%

Oil2.5%

Gas21.3%

Nuclear13.6%

Hydro16.0%

Wind4.5%

Other renewables

3.2%

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Electricity Generation Forecasts by Fuel (World), 2010, 2020 and 2030

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

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2010-20 2020-30

World Power GenerationGrowth Trends by Power Generation Technology

Electricity generation will expand at a CAGR of 2.7% through 2020, with the growth rate slowing to 1.8% per annum over the subsequent decade as growth in emerging markets is reduced and energy efficiency measures begin to have a greater impact.

During the current decade, gas, nuclear and hydro will expand at similar global growth rates but coal will not be far behind, as emerging nations such as China and India rely strongly on that fuel. Growth of coal-fired generation is expected to fall massively during the subsequent decade as developed countries decommission capacity and emerging nations become more diversified in their fuel mix.

Non-hydro renewables will see the strongest expansion, though wind will become more saturated after 2020.

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Electricity Generation Average Annual Growth Rates by Technology (World), 2010-2030

Average Annual Growth Rate in Electricity GenerationAverage Annual Growth Rate in Electricity Generation

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Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Installed Fossil-Fired Capacity Shares (World), 2010-2030

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Fossil-Fired Electricity Generation Shares (World), 2010-2030

World Power GenerationFossil-Fired Electricity Portfolio

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Coal Oil Gas

Despite attempts to gradually decarbonise power supply, fossil-fired electricity will still account for 55% of installed capacity and 57% of power generation by 2030.

The relative proportions of the thermal fuels are changing over time. The share of coal in the mix will keep expanding over the next few years before gradually starting to fall as gas picks up a greater share. Coal’s share will increase to 62.8% of conventional thermal power output in 2015, before gradually declining to 59.9% in 2030. The share of gas will rise from 31.8% in 2010 to 37.3% in 2030. Oil’s share is progressively declining as developed countries effectively phase it out and replace existing installations with cleaner gas-fuelled plants.

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Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & SullivanNote: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Net Gas-Fired Capacity Changes (World), 2010-2030

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Net Coal-Fired Capacity Changes (World), 2010-2030

World Power GenerationGas and Coal Regional Capacity Growth

Whilst gas-fired capacity will see a substantial net increase in most regions of the world, overall coal-fired capacities will only see major growth in emerging regions, specifically in China, India and ASEAN.

Gas-fired additions will be massive in the Middle East during the current decade but then decline dramatically as high economic and population growth is curtailed and the fuel mix becomes more diversified. In a number of other regions, such as North America, China, India and ASEAN, growth is greater in the post-2020 period. This is due to increasing need for a more flexible generation system in light of the growth of intermittent renewable energy sources. Coal growth during this decade is completely dominated by China up to 2020 but becomes more evenly spread across the emerging regions.

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Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & SullivanNote: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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World Power GenerationShifting Regional Power Balance

Over the next two decades, the traditional developed regions will lose ground to emerging markets where rapid urbanisation and the creation of a middle class will drive electricity demand, as a wealthier population takes up electric appliances that are considered standard in the developed world. The bulk of this growth is anticipated to come from India and China, with the combined share of these two countries alone rising from 23.6% in 2010 to 34.5% in 2030. Power generation in China will overtake that of North America by 2015.

Over the 2010-2030 period, the combined share of the developed regions of EU, North America and OECD APAC will drop from 49.6% in 2010 to 37.5% in 2030. The combined share of the Middle East and Africa region, meanwhile, will increase from 7.0% in 2010 to 7.9% in 2030.

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Electricity Generation Shares by Region (World), 2010-2030

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Electricity Generation ShareElectricity Generation Share

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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World Power GenerationGrowth Trends by Region

Electricity demand between 2010 and 2030 will rise fastest in India, at a CAGR of 5.2%, followed by the ASEAN group of nations at 4.6% and China at 4.0%. Conversely, the three above-mentioned developed regions will all record relatively anaemic demand growth of below 1% per annum as stagnant population increases and more efficient energy use curtail demand growth. Overall Middle East and African growth rates will fall short of those of the leading Asian nations but will be healthy at CAGRs of 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively.

The largest growth difference between the two time periods will be in China as economic growth declines, the population stabilises and energy use becomes more efficient. Only ASEAN will see even higher growth in next decade compared to the current one, reflecting continuing high population growth and the assumed end of isolation for Myanmar.

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Electricity Generation Average Annual Growth Rates by Region (World), 2010-2030

Average Annual Growth Rate in Electricity GenerationAverage Annual Growth Rate in Electricity Generation

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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China India Rest of the World

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Share of Global Electricity Generation by Technology (China and India), 2010

Given their status as rapidly developing economies, it is not surprising that their share of global electricity generation is growing across all fuel sources.

Their role and future impact is most prominent in coal, where they account for 43.8% of the total in 2010, with this forecast to rise to 57.0% by 2030. The two countries are also very strong in hydro and wind, with China expanding particularly strongly in hydro and India in wind power. It is, however, in gas and nuclear where the growth in these nations will massively outpace developments in most other regions. Their gas share will rise from 4.0% to 14.3%, while their nuclear share will increase massively, from only 3.6% in 2010 to 20.9% in 2030.

World Power GenerationThe Growing Role of China and India

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Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Share of Global Electricity Generation by Technology (China and India), 2030

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Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & SullivanNote: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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World Power GenerationA Nuclear Renaissance?

Nuclear power’s share of electricity generation is strongest in Europe, where the fuel accounts for 29% of the total in 2010. The leading nuclear generating nation is France, which covers approximately 47% of the EU’s nuclear power output. Germany accounts for 16%, with Sweden, Spain, the United Kingdom (UK) and Belgium each accounting for between 5% and 7% of the continent’s nuclear output. Nuclear power is also a key part of the fuel mix in Russia, the United States of America (USA) and Japan.

The OECD APAC region has ambitious nuclear growth plans though it is yet too early to assess the full implications of the Japanese nuclear disaster on the country’s nuclear energy strategy. Despite steep rises in China’s nuclear capacity, the fuel’s share will remain below 10% by 2030.

Whilst nuclear power’s share will remain stable in North America, its role will decline in Europe as renewable energy is promoted.

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Nuclear Electricity Share of Total Power Generation by Region (World), 2010-2030

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Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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EU Russia Middle East Africa North America

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China India ASEAN OECD APAC

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World Power GenerationRenewable Energy Expansion

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Share of Total Power Generation by Region (World), 2010-2030

Strong growth is expected for renewable energy across the world over the next two decades as governments aim to curb fossil fuel emissions, partly in order to comply with international agreements on climate change and partly to support new industries in the field of the green economy. Non-hydro renewables (wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and marine) are expected to increase their global share from 3.6% in 2010 to 7.7% in 2020 and 12.6% in 2030.

Europe’s lead globally, where strong political and financial support has led to the industry flourishing, will be maintained but North America will be expanding even faster, albeit from a lower base. China and India are both expected to see strong growth as they aim to diversity away from fossil-fired generation. The highest growth, however, will be in the Middle East and Africa, where solar power developments in particular will receive increased attention.

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Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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World Power GenerationFocus on Renewable Energy Technologies

Whilst hydropower is the largest renewable energy technology, it is also the most mature, particularly in the developed world, with substantial growth potential largely limited to China, India and Africa. Hydropower output is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.2% over the 2010-2030 period.

Wind power is expected to see massive growth during this decade before growth declines dramatically post-2020 as developed regions such as the EU become saturated, having already developed the best wind sites. Solar PV will also expand strongly but the highest growth, albeit from a small base, is reserved for concentrated solar power (CSP) which – based on early initiatives in Spain, North Africa and the USA – will see its installed capacity rise from 1 GW in 2010 to 18 GW in 2020 and 52 GW in 2030. Marine energy is still in its infancy and will see more substantial growth only post-2020.

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Renewable Electricity Generation Average Annual Growth Rates by Technology (World), 2010-2030

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Hydro

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Average Annual Growth Rate in Electricity GenerationAverage Annual Growth Rate in Electricity Generation

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Share of Carbon-Free Electricity Generation by Region (World), 2010

Annual Power Generation Forecasts: Share of Carbon-Free Electricity Generation by Region (World), 2030

World Power GenerationTowards a Carbon-Free Power Generation System

Carbon-free electricity generation accounted for 33% of power generation worldwide in 2010.

It is highest in Latin America, where hydropower generation has traditionally been the mainstay of power generation, and lowest in the Middle East, a region endowed with rich fossil energy resources. Among the developed regions, the EU has the highest carbon-free share, testament to the group’s strong focus on renewable energy as well as nuclear power.

Despite attempts to gradually decarbonise power supply, fossil-fired electricity will still account for 57% of world power generation by 2030.

*Carbon-Free includes nuclear and all renewable energy sources*Carbon-Free includes nuclear and all renewable energy sources

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & SullivanNote: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan

48%33%

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