Group DaVinci ASEAN +3 Unclassified – Academic Use Only Geospatial Analysis of the Alliance of...

Group DaVinci

ASEAN +3

Unclassified – Academic Use Only

Unclassified – Academic Use Only

Geospatial Analysis of the Alliance of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) + 3Geospatial Analysis of the Alliance of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) + 3

Jim Epley

Stan Grossman

Meredith Hollowell

David Miller

Thomas Walker

Jim Epley

Stan Grossman

Meredith Hollowell

David Miller

Thomas Walker

Date: 03 March 2011Event: GGS 684 Assignment No . 2Date: 03 March 2011Event: GGS 684 Assignment No . 2

GGS 684: GROUP DAVINCI

ASEAN + 3UNCLASSIFIED – FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO)

UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Agenda

• GEOINT• Background• Challenges & Opportunities

– Conflict Between the Koreas– China as a Global Competitor– China as a Regional Superpower– Instability in Indonesia, Thailand, & Philippines

• Summary• Questions

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UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO)

GEOINT

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UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) GEOINT – Definition

“The term GEOINT was created to describe and encompass both the

standard and the advanced (integrated) capabilities of imagery, imagery

intelligence and geospatial information. The full power of GEOINT comes

from the integration and analysis of all three capabilities …”

Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) Doctrine

Publication 1-0

September 2006 4

“The term “geospatial intelligence” means- “the exploitation and analysis of

imagery and geospatial information to describe, assess, and visually

depict physical features and geographically referenced activities on the

Earth. GEOINT consists of imagery, imagery intelligence, and geospatial

information.”

Title 10 U.S. Code §467



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Specialized GEOINT Characteristics

• Incorporates intelligence analysis into all aspects • Uses multiple types of sensors and advanced sensor technology • Combines multiple types of geospatial data • Uses intelligence and data from other INTs to provide context • Adds more dimensions to standard geospatial products

• 3rd Dimension: provides the capability to visualize in three dimensions (3D) • 4th Dimension: integrates the element of time and movement (allowing for realistic

motion to create dynamic and interactive visual products)

Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) Doctrine

Publication 1-0

September 2006

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UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) GEOINT Structured Analysis Process

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Brainstorming

Brainstorming,Key Assumption Check, Quality of Information Check, Red Team

Brainstorming,Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

Brainstorming, Quality of Information Check,Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), Devil’s Advocacy

Bacastow, T.S. and Bellafiore, D.J. (2008-2010)




BACKGROUND

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UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) BACKGROUND: ASEAN + 3

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar(Burma)

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

China

South Korea

Japan




ASEAN EnvironmentGeography Land Cover

Climate



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) ASEAN Population Growth

% Growth 1990-2008

Average Annual Population Growth



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) ASEAN Energy Trends



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Food Trends

Availability ↑

Prices ↓



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Internet – 8 of Top-10 Users

Penetration(% Pop)

Growth(2000-2010)

Brunei Darussalam 80.7% 963.0%Cambodia 0.5% 1200.0%Indonesia 12.3% 1400.0%

Laos 7.5% 8690.0%Malaysia 64.6% 356.8%Myanmar 0.2% 10900.0%

Philippines 29.7% 1385.0%Singapore 77.8% 204.9%Thailand 26.3% 660.3%Vietnam 21.7% 12034.5%

China 31.6% 1766.7%South Korea 81.1% 107.1%

Japan 78.2% 110.6%North America 77.4% 146.3%



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Natural Resources



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Agriculture



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Manufacturing Resources



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Economic Reality of the Region

• Dominated by China• Japan – economic powerhouse, but aging

ASEAN Trade Balance

GDP($M)

CAB($B)

China $ 5,745,133 $ 296.20 Japan $ 5,390,897 $ 131.20

South Korea $ 986,256 $ 5.95 Indonesia $ 496,800 $ 11.01 Thailand $ 272,100 $ 15.77 Malaysia $ 214,700 $ 29.18

Singapore $ 192,800 $ 39.16 Vietnam $ 90,880 $ (6.99)

Philippines $ 86,000 $ 6.35 Brunei Darussalam $ 17,180 $ 5.99

Myanmar $ 13,700 $ 0.96 Cambodia $ 10,820 $ (0.31)

Laos $ 5,187 $ (0.71)

Imports Exports Balance2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Regional Superpower – Chinese Military

MilitaryBudget

ActiveManpower

ArmedFightingVehicles Aircraft Ships

Brunei Darussalam $ 530 7 55 5 Cambodia $ 9,000 122 430 20 Indonesia $ 4,000 300 930 95 22

Laos $ 15 28 55 24 Malaysia $ 4,000 109 1,600 70 17 Myanmar $ 6,000 405 600 120

Philippines $ 1,200 107 520 55 13 Singapore $ 7,500 72 2,100 110 Thailand $ 3,400 300 1,800 170 19 Vietnam $ 3,700 450 2,600 230

China $ 55,000 2,100 13,000 2,600 219 South Korea $ 28,000 680 6,700 620 65

Japan $ 48,000 240 1,850 440 124

USA $ 580,000 1,500 34,000 5,800 201



UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Geopolitical Relations

• Governance– Dictatorial → Communistic → Full Democracy

• Historical Animosities– China – Vietnam– China – Taiwan– Japan – Korea

• Economic Animosities– Spratly Islands (Vietnam, China, Malaysia, Philippines,

Brunei Darussalam)• US Relations

– Contentious → Ambivalent → Ally• Economic• Militarily




CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

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UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Pressure Points

• Conflict between the Koreas

• China as a global competitor

• China as a regional superpower

• Instability in Indonesia, Thailand,and Philippines

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CONFLICT BETWEEN THE KOREAS

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North Korea threatens the stability of Northeast Asia

North Korea will not unify with South Korea by 2025, and its WMDs will continue to be a threat.

China maintains North Korea as a buffer state.

North Korean aggressive military actions continue.

North Korea increases its nuclear weapons stockpile.

North Korea develops longer-range ballistic missiles.

South Korea restarts its nuclear weapons program.

Japan uses technology to counter North Korea.

Japan and South Korea form a security alliance.

U.S. military presence recedes from the region.

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Players in the North Korean Challenge

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• North Korea diverts more money to weapons development and uses military threats to get food for its desperate population. Dependence on China increases due to UN economic sanctions.

• China props up North Korea, fearing a loss of a strategic buffer and a flood of North Korean refugees across the Chinese border.

• South Korea, sensing a decline in U.S. resolve, confronts North Korean military provocations with new weapons programs, including nuclear weapons. South Korea increasingly turns to Japan for political and military support.

• Japan, threatened by North Korea’s missiles and nuclear weapons, pours resources into missile defense, with land, sea, and space systems. It maintains a regional lead in space technology.




Monitoring North Korea

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Economic elements• Crop health and productivity• Rate of deforestation and soil erosion• Refugee movement due to famine• Effect of UN sanctions on economy• Chinese support in circumventing sanctions

Military elements• Ballistic missile launches• Nuclear weapons development• Pollution caused by banned military activities• Military attacks against South Korea or others




CHINA AS A GLOBAL COMPETITOR

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• Time Required to start a business: 35 days• Agricultural Products: rice, wheat, potatoes, corn, peanuts,

tea, millet, barley, apples, cotton, oilseed, pork, fish- only 10% of land is suitable for cultivation – 329 Million Chinese Farmers

• Industry: iron, steel, coal, textiles• Trade and Investment - Exports: $1,220,000,000,000.00• GDP: $2,668,071,000,000.00• Gross National Income: $1,130,000,000,000.00• Second larges t producer of manufacturing output

China - Global Investments

http://blogs.reuters.com/india-expertzone/2011/02/07/chinas-investment-overseas-in-2010/




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http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/global/mobile-internet-more-popular-in-china-than-in-u-s/

http://www.digitaleastasia.com/2010/01/18/chinas-internet-population-approaches-400-million/

-Mobile Internet users increased by more than 100% since the end of 2008 to reach a total of 233 million,-8% of users now access the Internet only through their mobile phones,-Rural Internet users increased 26.3% year-over-year to 106.8 million at the end of 2009,-The use of the Internet for travel reservations, stock trading and e-banking grew by 77.9%, 67% and 62.3% respectively.

January 2011: Number of Phones = 853,400,000 (62.8%)

China- Information Exchange




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China’s National Defense in 2006 published by, The Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China. “The Army is speeding up the upgrading and informationization of its active main battle equipment to build a new type of ground combat force which is lean, combined, agile and multi-functional.”

ARMYTotal Land-Based Weapons: 31,300 Tanks: 8,200 [2004] Armored Personnel Carriers: 5,000 [2004] Towed Artillery: 14,000 [2004] Self-Propelled Guns: 1,700 [2004] Multiple Rocket Launch Systems: 2,400 [2004] Mortars: 16,000 [2001] Anti-Tank Guided Weapons: 6,500 [2004] Anti-Aircraft Weapons: 7,700 [2004] NAVYTotal Navy Ships: 760 Merchant Marine Strength: 1,822 [2008] Major Ports and Harbors: 8 Aircraft Carriers: 1 [2010] Destroyers: 21 [2004] Submarines: 68 [2004] Frigates: 42 [2004] Patrol & Coastal Craft: 368 [2004] Mine Warfare Craft: 39 [2004] Amphibious Craft: 121 [2004] AIR FORCETotal Aircraft: 1,900 [2004] Helicopters: 491 [2004] Serviceable Airports: 467 [2007] Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Most_powerful_military_in_the_world#ixzz1FCiFKDjp

http://www.japanprobe.com/2010/11/28/should-japan-fear-chinas-military-build-up/

China- Military Development

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Most_powerful_military_in_the_world#ixzz1FCiFKDjp

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Most_powerful_military_in_the_world#ixzz1FCiFKDjp




30http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ch&v=24

China- Population Distribution

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-03/26/content_6565723.htm

• Zhaoqing : 3.9m• Frosham: 5.4 m• Guangzhou: 11.7m• Dongguan: 6.4m• Jiangmen: 3.8m• Zhongshan: 2.4m• Zhuhai: 1.5m• Shenzhen: 8.9m• Huizhou: 3.9m




CHINA AS REGIONAL SUPERPOWER

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China - Pivotal to ASEAN Region’s Maritime Commerce• China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years

than any other country.

– Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as China’s and India’s development of blue-water naval capabilities.

– Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to:

• Increased tensions, • Rivalries, and • Counterbalancing moves

– Will also create opportunities

for multinational cooperation

in protecting critical sea lanes.

– In particular, protection/control of the South China Sea basin is a maritime region which is vital to ASEAN +3 Commerce.

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UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) China- Political Development Model for Client States

• Russia, China and India have linked their national security to increased state control of and access to energy resources and markets through their state-owned energy firms.– China, especially, has emerged as a new financial heavyweight, claiming

$2,000,000,000,000 (USD) in foreign exchange reserves in 2008. –

• China offers an alternative model for political development in addition to demonstrating a different economic pathway.

– This model may prove attractive to under-performing authoritarian regimes, in addition to weak democracies frustrated by years of economic underperformance.

– State capitalism is the loose term used to describe a system of economic management that gives a prominent role to the state.

– Other rising powers (in ASEAN +3): South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, also used state capitalism to develop their economies.

– China’s growing middle class increases the chances (of democracy) but does not make such a development inevitable.

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UNCLASSIFIED - FOR ACADEMIC USE ONLY (FAUO) Essential Elements of Information

• Maritime Commerce– Ship Nationality– Type of Ships– Ports of Call– Type of Cargo– Naval/Coast Guard– Shipping Routes– Environment

• Client States– National Identity– Shipyards– Ports/Cargo Facilities– Raw Materials/Products– Strength of Military– Transportation Systems

Rail, Waterways, Highways, Airfields

– Disaster Preparedness– Financial System– Health of Economy– Population Centers– Population Demographics– Commercial Industries

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Commonality

Imagery Sources will Include: Visible, Infrared, Panchromatic, Hyper spectral, Multispectral, Thermal, Aerial Vector /Map

Other GeoINT will include: SAR, LiDAR, DTED, Demographics

Mulit-INT will include: HUMINT, SIGINT, MASINT,




INSTABILITY IN INDONESIA, THAILAND & PHILIPPINES

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INDONESIA

Key Factors:– Assassination

attempt on Indonesian President

– 2009 bombings of 2 hotels in Jakarta

– Targeting foreigners and government entities

THE PHILIPPINES

Key Factors:– Kidnappings of foreign

workers– December 2009 prison

break of 30 AS and MILF members

– Election-related violence in 2010 in Mindinao (57 killed)

– 500+ areas identified as hotspots for violence

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Active Terrorist Organizations:• Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)• Tanzim Qaedat al-Jihad (Malay

Archipelego)

• Abu Sayyaf (AS)• Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)• Communist New People’s Army (NPA)• Moro National Liberation Front

SOUTHERN THAILANDKey Factors:

– Muslim separatist violence (300 killed in 2009)

– Thai gov’t unwilling to recognize insurgency

– Insurgent use of IEDs– Estimated 3,600 killed

since 2004 (no reported foreigners)

The growth of terrorist organizations in the region threatens stability and economic growth




Essential Elements of Information

• Monitor movement in and out of borders

– porous maritime borders in The Philippines and Indonesia

• Political Gauges– Election years– Perception of government legitimacy and corruption– Media freedom and media content

• Economic Gauges– Black Market Trading– Financial Stability

• Poverty Level• Quality of Life

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SUMMARY

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Summary

• GEOINT overview• ASEAN regionally robust, resource rich• Four significant concerns to monitor

– Koreas– China globally– China regionally– Regional political instability

• Next steps– Further develop EEIs– Construct collection Strategy




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Group DaVinci

GGS 684 Assignment No. 2

Group DaVinci ASEAN +3 Unclassified – Academic Use Only Geospatial Analysis of the Alliance of...

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