Group 5Group 5

Bojariu, Roxana Bojariu, Roxana National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology,National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology,

Bucharest, RomaniaBucharest, Romania Srnec, LidijaSrnec, LidijaMeteorological and Hydrological Service, Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, CroatiaZagreb, Croatia

Velea, LilianaVelea, LilianaNational Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology,National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, RomaniaBucharest, Romania

Sensitivity of the Sensitivity of the local response over local response over Europe to extreme Europe to extreme

NAO phasesNAO phases

MotivationMotivation

NAONAO It’s a dominant circulation pattern in the It’s a dominant circulation pattern in the

Northern Hemisphere winter.Northern Hemisphere winter. It’s a source of predictability for the It’s a source of predictability for the

European regions.European regions. It has socio-economic impacts (e.g. power It has socio-economic impacts (e.g. power

and water management, marine ecosystem and water management, marine ecosystem resources, agriculture)resources, agriculture)

Questions:

Does the model represent the NAO signal?

What is the effect of ocean flux parameterization scheme on the simulated NAO signal?

Experiment designExperiment design

Domain: Domain: 80x70x1880x70x1846N,8E46N,8E

Period of simulations:Period of simulations: January 1995January 1995(CRU NAO (CRU NAO

index=+2.7)index=+2.7)

January 1996January 1996 (CRU NAO index=-(CRU NAO index=-

3.71)3.71) Data:Data: ECMWFECMWF

NCEP2NCEP2CRUCRU

Ocean flux scheme: Ocean flux scheme: ZengZengBATSBATS

PRECIPITATION 1995CRU

ECMWF NCEP2

TEMPERATURE Jan 1995CRU

ECMWFNCEP2

PRECIPITATION JAN 1996CRU

ECMWFNCEP2

TEMPERATURE JAN 1996CRU

ECMWFNCEP2

DIFFERENCE PRECIPITATION (COMPOSITES) 95-96(NCEP2)CRU NCEP2

DIFFERENCE TEMPERATURE (COMPOSITES) 95-96(NCEP2)CRU NCEP2

PRECIPITATION Jan 1995(ECMWF)CRU

Zeng BATS

PRECIPITATION JAN 1996 (ECMWF)CRU

ZengBATS

PRECIPITATION JAN 1996 (NCEP2)CRU

ZengBATS

TEMPERATURE JAN 1995(ECMWF)CRU

ZengBATS

TEMPERATURE JAN 1996(ECMWF)CRU

ZengBATS

Preliminary conclusionsPreliminary conclusions

Local features of the NAO-type patterns are well Local features of the NAO-type patterns are well represented.represented.

Relevant local responses due to topography are Relevant local responses due to topography are identified.identified.

Zeng ocean flux parameterization scheme Zeng ocean flux parameterization scheme seems to be more realistic in precipitation field, seems to be more realistic in precipitation field, but the differences are not pronounced.but the differences are not pronounced.

Follow upFollow up

Extended simulation intervalExtended simulation interval

More analysis methodsMore analysis methods