Gross domestic product - Statistics South Africa€¦ · Gross domestic product 1st quarter 2018...
Transcript of Gross domestic product - Statistics South Africa€¦ · Gross domestic product 1st quarter 2018...
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Gross
domestic
product1st quarter 2018Embargo: 11:30am
@StatsSA
#GDP
GDP
Q1 2018
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
GDP
Q1 2018
GDP
production
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Real GDP
-2,2%in Q1 2018
(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
Real GDP
0,8%in Q1 2018(year-on-year)
Unadjusted
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
The largest contributors to negative growth in Q1 2018 were activities in the manufacturing, mining and agriculture industries
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GDP growth rates
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
The primary and secondary sectors recorded negative growth in Q1 2018. The tertiary sector’s contribution was positive
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
Growth rates in
various sectors
-4,9%
0,3%
-13,8%
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
0,3
0,1
0,2
0,1
0,0
-0,1
-0,8
-0,7
GDP
-2,2%
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
-0,4
-0,8
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q1 2018
Agriculture: Decreased production was reported for field crops and horticultural products
Mining: Decreased production was reported for gold and ‘other’ metal ores, predominantly the platinum group
metals and iron ore
Agriculture
24,2%13,8% 9,9%
PRIMARY
SECTORMining
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q1 2018
Manufacturing: The decline was driven largely by activities in the petroleum and chemical products, and basic iron and steel
Electricity: Electricity production declined in the first quarter while the distribution of water increased
Construction: Residential buildings and construction works activities decreased in the first quarter
Electricity
0,5% 1,9%
Construction
4,9%
SECONDARY
SECTORManufacturing
6,4%
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q1 2018
Trade
3,1%
Transport
0,9%0,3%
TERTIARY
SECTORFinance
1,1%
Government
1,8%
Personal
services
1,2%
Trade: Weaknesses in the trades as well as catering and accommodation contributed to the decline
Transport: Activities related to land freight transport and transport support services increased
Finance: Insurance, real estate activities and business services contributed to the 1,1% rise
Government: Increasing public sector employment numbers contributed to the rise in general government activity
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Nominal GDP values for Q1 2018
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Agriculture was up by R10 billion to R25 billion
Electricity was up by R6 billion to R39 billion
Mining was down by R16 billion to R75 billion
Trade was down R18 billion to R157 billion
Nominal GDP estimated at R1,184 trillion for Q1 2018,
R24 billion less than in Q4 2017
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Shares of
nominal GDP
Q1 2018
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
GDP
Q3 2016
GDP
Q2 2017
Expenditure
on GDP
GDP
Q1 2018
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Expenditure on GDP
-2,5%in Q1 2018
(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
Expenditure on GDP
1,7%in Q1 2018(year-on-year)
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
The fall in Q1 2018 was largely driven by decreases in net exports and gross fixed capital formation
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
Expenditure on GDP growth rates
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
0,9
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
Change in inventories: R11,6 billion (contribution of 0,1 percentage points)
Weak exports of goods and services leads to a negative growth in Q1 2018Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualised
Expenditure
on GDP:
-2,5%
0,2
-0,6
2,1
-5,2
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Household final
consumption
expenditure (HFCE)
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Household final
consumption expenditure
1,5%in Q1 2018
(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
Household consumption expenditure growth decelerated to 1,5% in Q1 2018 in line with a fall in retail trade sales
HFCE growth rates
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
0,5
0,7
0,2
0,1
0,4
0,2
0,2
-0,1
-0,4
0,1
-0,2
-0,1
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
1,5%
HFCE by
purpose
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
1,8
0,5
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
1,5%
HFCE by
durability
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
-0,1
-0,7
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Government final
consumption
expenditure (GFCE)
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Government final
consumption expenditure
1,2%in Q1 2018
(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Higher employment numbers in extra-budgetary and higher education institutions contributed to growth in Q1 2018
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GFCE growth rates
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Gross fixed capital
formation (GFCF)
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Gross fixed capital formation
-3,2%in Q1 2018
(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
The fall in Q1 2018 was largely driven by declining investments in construction works, machinery and residential buildings
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GFCF growth rates
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
1,9
0,1
-0,2
-1,5
-1,8
-0,6
-1,1
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
-3,2%
GFCF by
asset type
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Change in inventories
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
In Q1 2018, inventory build-ups were reported for manufacturing and electricity, gas and water
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
Change in inventories(R million)
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Exports and Imports
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Exports of goods
and services
-16,5%in Q1 2018
(quarter-on-quarter)
Imports of goods
and services
-6,5%in Q1 2018
(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Exports were down in Q1 2018, largely influenced by declining trade of base metals and articles of base metals and mineral
products
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
Exports growth
rates
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
The fall in Q1 2018 was largely influenced by declining trade in machinery and electrical equipment and vehicles and transport equipment
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
Imports growth rates
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Recap
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GDP and expenditure on GDP growth rates
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GDP
Q1 2018
Embargoed until: 11:30am
Real GDP
-2,2%in Q1 2018
(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
Real GDP
0,8%in Q1 2018(year-on-year)
Unadjusted