GRIDLOCK? TRANSPORT IN 2030

THE FUTURE FOR PRIVATE TRANSPORT

Professor Mike McDonaldDirector, Transportation Research GroupVice-Chair, European Road Transport Research Advisory Council

CONTENTS

FUNDAMENTAL ISSUESWHAT WILL CARS BE LIKE?WHAT WILL THE ROAD NETWORK BE LIKE?WILL ATTITUDES CHANGE?WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN FOR PRIVATE TRANSPORT?

FUNDAMENTAL ISSUESWE ALL MAKE TRANSPORT DECISIONS WHICH BEST SUIT US (Private and Business)FOR MANY PEOPLE, AT MANY TIMES AND IN MANY LOCATIONS CARS PROVIDE THE MOST ATTRACTIVE SOLUTION FOR TRAVELROAD IS THE ONLY REALISTIC CHOICE FOR MOST FREIGHT/GOODS MOVEMENTSA RELATIVELY SMALL REDUCTION IN DEMAND RESULTS IN A LARGE REDUCTION IN DELAY

WHAT WILL CARS BE LIKE?

How Well do Drivers Perform?LONGITUDINAL CONTROL

LATERAL CONTROL

LOCATION/ROUTE FINDING

Lane keepingAdvanced driver assistance functions offer: support in driving dynamics limitations increased safety, efficiency and comfortThe responsibility remains at the driver. The increase in safety and comfort are essential ! Curve- & Speed limit warnings Adaptive gearbox Traffic signs

NormalDrivingSafetySystemssoft level1.2.3.4.5.6.7.Active SafetyPassive SafetyCrashCrash ProbabilityWarningSystemsAutomatic-SafetySystemsAssistanceSystemsHolistic Safety Approach SafetySystemsfor minimal crashSafetySystemshard levelSafetySystemsafter Crash

Emergency/MaydaySystemscrashseverity sensingfor ignition levelsand belt tension

PedestrianairbagEmergencybrakingsystem,Collison avoidanceBrakeassistantLanedeparturewarningACCS&GetcOccupant ProtectionBasic Vehicle Safety RescueCollision AvoidancePre-Crash PhaseExamples for ADASE Level of critical safety situations

Integrated Driver-Adaptive SystemsErgonomics ApproachNomad systemsAftermarket systemsIntegratedIn-vehicle systems+

Picture courtesy of California PATH

ULTra at Heathrow

WHAT WILL THE ROAD NETWORK BE LIKE?

THE CHALLENGESTRAFFIC MANAGEMENTPolicySystemsManaging informationChanging technologiesDeveloping prioritiesCompetencesManaging expectationNew conceptsFinance and ownershipResearch

ROMANSE

NANO-TECHNOLOGYSource: ASTRA, Newcastle UniversityMotesASTRA trial concept - RTPI

NON INTRUSIVE MEASUREMENT OF VEHICLE EMISSIONS BY THE ROADSIDEREMOTE SENSING DEVICES (RSDS)

BASIC ACCESS CONTROL CONFIGURATIONSRamp metering with priority accessone lane controlled and one priority laneboth lanes controlled and new bypass priority laneRamp meteringboth lanes controlledLane closure with priority laneone open lane and one priority laneLane closureone open lane and one closed lane Access open for priority vehicles onlyAccess closed

INTEGRATION OPPORTUNITIES Network Measurements/MonitoringManagement OptionsSelectionTraffic Management Policy ObjectivesControl Option DevelopmentControl/Information DeliveryDriver ResponseDriver BehaviourNew Driver BehaviourNew IntegratedControl/ManagementOptionsNew ControlTechniquesNew VehicleTechnologies

WILL ATTITUDES CHANGE?

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?No magic technology bullet.Wide range of private vehicles with new approaches to ownership and usage.Managed network based on more comprehensive understandings.Acceptance of need to change because of energy costs/global warming.People will make fewer trips by car.Goods/freight movements will be rationalised.