Gresham "Group 150" - December 2010
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DECEMBER 2010 1 ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150 We are pleased to present the December edition of ‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation. The market value of the Group 150 at the end of November was $572 billion, up 1.4% from October. The entry point into the Group 150 was further extended during November with $110.1 million being the new threshold, up 37% from the $80.2 million required in the inaugural edition of Gresham Group 150 in March 2010. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index rose 1.1% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 1.2% and 1.7% respectively. In this edition of the Group 150 we provide comment on the uranium markets and provide an overview of the relative market rating of the ASX listed uranium peers using Enterprise Value/lb of resource. Improved market sentiment within the uranium sector, encouraged by the recovery in spot uranium prices and recent corporate activity has lead to strong share price performance by the producers and explorers in the past few months. Following the GFC, lower global energy demand, the reduced priority of carbon emission / trading schemes, and the unwinding of investment holdings and speculative funds led to a weakening uranium price, with spot prices falling to as low as US$40.50/lb (from a peak of c.US$138/lb in July 2007). Uranium prices have remained at or below US$50 for a majority of the time since January 2009. This has led to difficulties in meeting mining breakeven points, particularly for new supply. We note that industry commentators suggest an incentive price of c.US$60- US$80/lb may be the level required to support most future production. Recent spot price improvements have notably been driven by the return of non-discretionary trading activity by China and existing producers seeking to meet term contract commitments. However, exuberance over the potential for sustained stock-building by China and other nations, as well as the return of speculative demand, has thus far been kept in check. New reactor capacity is the process of coming on-line and significant planned builds/expansions are being scheduled. Global nuclear power demand is expected to rise from 375GWe (from 443 operating plants as at 2010), to c.530GWe capacity from 590 operating plants in 2020. Emerging countries are expected to drive demand, particularly China. The World Nuclear Association expect China’s uranium demand to rise to 20ktpa by 2020 to produce 85GWe (9 times current capacity) The finely balanced supply/demand situation means the market is susceptible to both demand and supply side shocks, so we expect to see volatility in spot prices in the short to medium term. However, in terms of the prospects for the next generation of uranium producers, of keener interest will be the direction of term prices, which are beginning to firm in the low – mid US$60’s. 2011 promises to be a very interesting year for the industry. Gresham Advisory Partners Limited GROUP 150 December 2010 Edition 9 Darren Martin Gresham Advisory Partners [email protected] +61 8 9486 7077 +61 412 144 719 Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.
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Gresham Group 150 - December 2010
Transcript of Gresham "Group 150" - December 2010
DECEMBER 2010
1
ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150We are pleased to present the December edition of ‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation. The market value of the Group 150 at the end of November was $572 billion, up 1.4% from October. The entry point into the Group 150 was further extended during November with $110.1 million being the new threshold, up 37% from the $80.2 million required in the inaugural edition of Gresham Group 150 in March 2010. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index rose 1.1% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 1.2% and 1.7% respectively. In this edition of the Group 150 we provide comment on the uranium markets and provide an overview of the relative market rating of the ASX listed uranium peers using Enterprise Value/lb of resource. Improved market sentiment within the uranium sector, encouraged by the recovery in spot uranium prices and recent corporate activity has lead to strong share price performance by the producers and explorers in the past few months.Following the GFC, lower global energy demand, the reduced priority of carbon emission / trading schemes, and the unwinding of investment holdings and speculative funds led to a weakening uranium price, with spot prices falling to as low as US$40.50/lb (from a peak of c.US$138/lb in July 2007).Uranium prices have remained at or below US$50 for a majority of the time since January 2009. This has led to difficulties in meeting mining breakeven points, particularly for new supply. We note that industry commentators suggest an incentive price of c.US$60-US$80/lb may be the level required to support most future production.Recent spot price improvements have notably been driven by the return of non-discretionary trading activity by China and existing producers seeking to meet term contract commitments. However, exuberance over the potential for sustained stock-building by China and other nations, as well as the return of speculative demand, has thus far been kept in check.New reactor capacity is the process of coming on-line and significant planned builds/expansions are being scheduled. Global nuclear power demand is expected to rise from 375GWe (from 443 operating plants as at 2010), to c.530GWe capacity from 590 operating plants in 2020. Emerging countries are expected to drive demand, particularly China.The World Nuclear Association expect China’s uranium demand to rise to 20ktpa by 2020 to produce 85GWe (9 times current capacity)The finely balanced supply/demand situation means the market is susceptible to both demand and supply side shocks, so we expect to see volatility in spot prices in the short to medium term. However, in terms of the prospects for the next generation of uranium producers, of keener interest will be the direction of term prices, which are beginning to firm in the low – mid US$60’s. 2011 promises to be a very interesting year for the industry.
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
Group 150
December 2010
Edition 9
Darren MartinGresham Advisory [email protected]+61 8 9486 7077+61 412 144 719
Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.
Top 150 ASX LiSTed reSource compAnieS - novemberBy Market Capitalisation
Group 150
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Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %
Nov Oct Company 30-Nov-10 31-Oct-10 Change Nov Oct Company 30-Nov-10 31-Oct-10 Change
1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $237,750.6 $233,318.4 1.9% 51 42 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $706.5 $809.2 (12.7%)
2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $161,294.8 $162,227.9 (0.6%) 52 66 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $644.0 $456.0 41.2%
3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $30,340.7 $30,550.0 (0.7%) 53 58 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $641.7 $521.4 23.1%
4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $19,669.1 $19,447.2 1.1% 54 122 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $603.0 $149.5 303.3%
5 5 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $9,745.1 $9,697.5 0.5% 55 65 Allied Gold Ltd. (ASX:ALD) $594.1 $473.2 25.5%
6 7 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $4,955.0 $4,927.4 0.6% 56 54 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $578.7 $578.7 0.0%
7 6 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $4,855.9 $4,953.5 (2.0%) 57 64 Straits Resources Ltd. (ASX:SRL) $564.0 $476.0 18.5%
8 8 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,051.5 $4,076.4 (0.6%) 58 53 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $551.0 $589.1 (6.5%)
9 9 Equinox Minerals Ltd. (ASX:EQN) $4,002.3 $3,949.6 1.3% 59 78 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $540.9 $347.5 55.7%
10 10 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $3,578.8 $3,599.7 (0.6%) 60 51 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $538.3 $675.6 (20.3%)
11 13 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $3,527.5 $2,945.4 19.8% 61 56 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $527.3 $537.9 (2.0%)
12 11 Andean Resources Ltd. (ASX:AND) $3,503.4 $3,477.2 0.8% 62 63 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $525.7 $476.2 10.4%
13 12 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $3,327.2 $3,435.8 (3.2%) 63 61 Giralia Resources NL (ASX:GIR) $524.2 $495.4 5.8%
14 17 Riversdale Mining Ltd. (ASX:RIV) $3,228.9 $2,530.4 27.6% 64 77 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $521.8 $354.8 47.1%
15 14 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $3,149.4 $2,807.4 12.2% 65 68 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $514.0 $426.7 20.5%
16 15 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $3,141.8 $2,786.6 12.7% 66 67 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $512.5 $451.2 13.6%
17 20 Lynas Corp. Ltd. (ASX:LYC) $2,584.9 $2,427.5 6.5% 67 59 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $504.1 $517.5 (2.6%)
18 16 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $2,464.5 $2,719.2 (9.4%) 68 57 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $494.7 $528.6 (6.4%)
19 18 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $2,264.1 $2,481.5 (8.8%) 69 62 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $459.5 $484.1 (5.1%)
20 21 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $2,127.7 $2,201.0 (3.3%) 70 73 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $457.6 $385.6 18.7%
21 23 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $2,114.3 $1,861.3 13.6% 71 72 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $426.3 $388.7 9.7%
22 22 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $2,100.2 $2,186.8 (4.0%) 72 70 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $410.4 $404.0 1.6%
23 25 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $1,596.7 $1,355.6 17.8% 73 69 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $397.2 $414.7 (4.2%)
24 27 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,561.8 $1,318.6 18.4% 74 91 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $373.3 $275.8 35.4%
25 29 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $1,517.7 $1,254.0 21.0% 75 74 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $369.8 $380.7 (2.9%)
26 24 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,459.2 $1,481.7 (1.5%) 76 71 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $355.1 $389.2 (8.8%)
27 26 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $1,435.1 $1,329.6 7.9% 77 79 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $348.3 $342.1 1.8%
28 28 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,327.8 $1,259.7 5.4% 78 76 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $344.0 $357.1 (3.7%)
29 34 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $1,220.7 $1,044.8 16.8% 79 92 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $339.9 $272.9 24.6%
30 31 Citadel Resource Group Limited (ASX:CGG) $1,183.8 $1,148.3 3.1% 80 86 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $333.6 $297.0 12.3%
31 38 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $1,103.0 $896.8 23.0% 81 159 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) $324.2 $93.3 247.5%
32 30 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $1,075.3 $1,167.4 (7.9%) 82 85 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $322.4 $300.2 7.4%
33 32 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $1,049.4 $1,058.4 (0.9%) 83 75 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $320.7 $358.0 (10.4%)
34 33 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $1,017.5 $1,055.2 (3.6%) 84 84 Dominion Mining Limited (ASX:DOM) $313.7 $308.5 1.7%
35 35 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $1,013.9 $1,013.9 0.0% 85 87 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $306.3 $293.0 4.5%
36 36 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $1,006.5 $975.9 3.1% 86 80 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $303.9 $330.5 (8.0%)
37 48 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $989.1 $715.9 38.2% 87 95 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $301.3 $256.6 17.4%
38 44 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $975.6 $785.9 24.1% 88 82 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $296.4 $323.9 (8.5%)
39 43 Independence Gold NL (ASX:IGO) $970.9 $798.4 21.6% 89 96 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $292.7 $253.3 15.6%
40 37 Avoca Resources Ltd. (ASX:AVO) $961.6 $952.5 1.0% 90 83 Jabiru Metals Limited (ASX:JML) $292.6 $309.1 (5.3%)
41 39 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $893.5 $887.7 0.7% 91 49 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $291.3 $697.0 (58.2%)
42 60 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $869.1 $504.7 72.2% 92 93 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $281.7 $270.2 4.3%
43 47 Mantra Resources Limited (ASX:MRU) $867.3 $755.2 14.8% 93 105 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $279.4 $209.8 33.2%
44 45 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $864.1 $783.4 10.3% 94 94 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $274.3 $270.1 1.6%
45 40 OceanaGold Corporation (ASX:OGC) $851.2 $867.1 (1.8%) 95 89 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $272.5 $279.2 (2.4%)
46 41 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $830.3 $810.8 2.4% 96 98 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $270.8 $221.6 22.2%
47 50 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $826.9 $678.2 21.9% 97 90 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $267.2 $277.4 (3.7%)
48 46 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $813.5 $776.7 4.7% 98 97 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $266.9 $232.9 14.6%
49 55 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $774.9 $576.4 34.4% 99 99 Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) $263.0 $220.2 19.4%
50 52 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $751.5 $642.0 17.1% 100 88 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $259.9 $283.5 (8.3%)
Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas
DECEMBER 2010
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new enTrAnTS - november eXiTS - november81 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU)118 Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD)124 Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX)141 Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH)144 Bannerman Resources Limited (ASX:BMN)145 Citigold Corporation Limited (ASX:CTO)147 Pluton Resources Limited (ASX:PLV)149 Venture Minerals Ltd. (ASX:VMS)
Based on market capitalisation as at 31 November 2010 vs 31 October2010
Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %
Nov Oct Company 30-Nov-10 31-Oct-10 Change Nov Oct Company 30-Nov-10 31-Oct-10 Change
101 102 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $256.7 $217.7 17.9% 126 123 Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) $153.5 $146.7 4.6%
102 81 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $251.0 $326.3 (23.1%) 127 124 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $151.7 $146.0 3.9%
103 111 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $247.6 $194.1 27.6% 128 135 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $147.0 $123.1 19.4%
104 101 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $245.7 $218.4 12.5% 129 131 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $146.3 $132.8 10.2%
105 109 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $236.9 $198.0 19.6% 130 126 Golden West Resources Limited (ASX:GWR) $145.2 $140.2 3.6%
106 100 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $223.1 $219.2 1.8% 131 117 Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI) $140.3 $168.8 (16.9%)
107 113 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $218.4 $185.1 18.0% 132 134 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $139.2 $127.5 9.2%
108 106 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $211.9 $208.0 1.9% 133 132 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $138.6 $131.9 5.1%
109 104 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $210.8 $210.4 0.2% 134 121 Chalice Gold Mines Ltd. (ASX:CHN) $138.5 $151.0 (8.3%)
110 112 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $207.9 $193.0 7.7% 135 142 Sihayo Gold Limited (ASX:SIH) $138.2 $116.2 18.9%
111 107 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $207.1 $199.5 3.8% 136 141 IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) $136.5 $117.1 16.6%
112 115 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $206.0 $181.8 13.3% 137 125 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $135.2 $144.8 (6.6%)
113 120 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $203.6 $152.2 33.8% 138 128 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $133.9 $137.1 (2.3%)
114 110 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $193.1 $196.3 (1.6%) 139 140 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $128.7 $118.0 9.1%
115 130 Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) $191.5 $134.1 42.8% 140 129 Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI) $125.2 $135.7 (7.7%)
116 114 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $190.6 $181.9 4.8% 141 154 Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) $123.8 $99.6 24.3%
117 116 Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC) $189.5 $177.1 7.0% 142 148 Morning Star Gold NL (ASX:MCO) $122.5 $104.5 17.2%
118 - Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD) $189.2 - - 143 127 Bendigo Mining Ltd. (ASX:BDG) $122.3 $140.2 (12.8%)
119 118 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $182.9 $161.3 13.4% 144 152 Bannerman Resources Limited (ASX:BMN) $121.0 $101.9 18.7%
120 108 Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLV) $178.1 $199.4 (10.7%) 145 156 Citigold Corporation Limited (ASX:CTO) $120.6 $95.5 26.3%
121 119 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $175.8 $153.1 14.8% 146 138 Macquarie Harbour Mining Ltd (ASX:MHM) $115.0 $119.6 (3.8%)
122 103 Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA) $168.6 $211.9 (20.4%) 147 153 Pluton Resources Limited (ASX:PLV) $112.2 $99.4 12.9%
123 136 Nyota Minerals Limited (ASX:NYO) $165.5 $122.3 35.3% 148 145 Chesser Resources Limited (ASX:CHZ) $111.5 $108.3 3.0%
124 158 Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX) $161.0 $93.7 71.8% 149 157 Venture Minerals Ltd. (ASX:VMS) $110.5 $94.6 16.8%
125 137 Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE) $159.2 $120.6 32.0% 150 139 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $110.1 $119.5 (7.9%)
Group 150 LeAderS And LAGGerS - mArkeT cApiTALiSATion performAnce - november
Leaders Laggers
Source: Capital IQ
* Included placement, acquisition and/or material option conversion during month
Centennial Coal Co. Ltd. (ASX:CEY)Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL)Elemental Minerals Limited (ASX:ELM)Talisman Mining Ltd (ASX:TLM)Magma Metals Ltd. (ASX:MMW)WPG Resources Ltd (ASX:WPG)Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES)Thundelarra Exploration Ltd. (ASX:THX)
Group 150
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Group 150 SecTor mArkeT cApiTALiSATion - november
merGer & AcquiSiTionS - Announced in november
Date Announced Target Acquirer Value
(A$m)
Percent Sought
(%)
Premium - 1 Day Prior
(%)
Premium - 1 Month Prior
(%)
Consideration Offered
23-Nov-2010 Argent Minerals Ltd (ASX:ARD) US Nickel Limited (ASX:USN) 15.3 73 6.7 15.3 Equity
11-Nov-2010 Straits Resources Ltd. (ASX:SRL) PTT Mining Limited. 438.9 100 - - Cash
10-Nov-2010 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) Wah Nam International Aust Pty. Ltd. 696.8 77 39.1 70.8 Equity
10-Nov-2010 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) Wah Nam International Aust Pty. Ltd. 217.1 80 48.3 65.8 Equity
Source: Capital IQ Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m
Group 150 mArkeT cApiTALiSATion
ASX indeX performAnce - november
Mar
ket C
apit
alis
atio
n (A
$b)
DECEMBER 2010
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SupplyThe uranium market appears finely balanced in the medium term. Post GFC, lower global energy demand, reduced priority of carbon emission / trading schemes, and the unwinding of investment holdings or speculative funds led to substantial uranium price erosion, with prices falling to as low as US$40.50/lb (from a peak of c.US$138/lb in July 2007).
Uranium prices have remained at or below US$50 for 88% of the time since Jan 2009. This has led to difficulties in meeting mining breakeven points, particularly for new supply.
We note that most commentators suggest a price of c.US$60-US$80/lb may be the level required to support most future production.
The finely balanced supply/demand situation means the market is susceptible to both demand and supply side shocks.
Recent spot price improvements have notably been driven by the return of non-discretionary trading activity by China. However, exuberance over the potential for sustained stock-building by China and other nations, as well as the return of speculative demand, has thus far been kept in check.
Shocks are more likely to be from the supply side, which may include:
• Lower than expected production by existing producers
• In Q2 and Q3 2010, ERA announced lower than expected production from its Ranger mine, forcing it to buy on spot to meet commitments. ERA’s operational issues appear to remain unresolved thus may threaten future incremental supply/reduce spot uranium availability.
• Rossing mine has reported “subdued grades”, impacting uranium supply in 2010 and potentially beyond.
• After playing a primary role suppressing prices in the past, Kazakhstan is showing greater supply discipline by revising down production this year. However, an improved business and political risk environment is expected to improve Kazakhstan’s responsiveness to changes in demand/spot prices in future.
• Secondary supply diminishing: US/Russian agreement expiring 2013 and unlikely to be renewed.
• Olympic Dam: Project slated to deliver sizable volumes, timing is uncertain.
• Cigar Lake: Has faced numerous setbacks (was due to come on-stream in 2008). Future uncertain.
DemandThere have been limited new reactor openings since 1990. However, new capacity is the process of coming on-line and significant planned builds/expansions are being scheduled.
Global demand is expected to rise from 375GWe (from 443 operating plants as at 2010), to c.530GWe capacity from 590 operating plants in 2020. Emerging countries are expected to drive demand, particularly China
To illustrate the potential impact China’s demand alone may have, it is understood that the return of Chinese non discretionary demand since July has been the driving factor behind the recent recovery in uranium spot prices to 12 month highs.
China is believed to be building stockpiles of uranium for new reactors. It is expected to import 5kt in 2010 (more than twice what it consumes).
The World Nuclear Association expect China’s uranium demand to rise to 20ktpa by 2020 to produce 85GWe (9 times current capacity)
Producers are also reported to be buying in the spot market to deliver into term contracts.
urAnium - mArkeT fundAmenTALS
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urAnium – mArkeT rATinGSentiment has improved based on a view that the long-awaited push by China to position itself in the industry may have begun.
Market sentiment within the uranium sector has improved markedly in the last few months, encouraged by the recovery in spot uranium prices. The strengthening uranium spot price has been supported by a record 41 uranium spot market trades in October, totalling 5.6Mlb according to UxC Consulting (previous monthly record was 32 in May 09).The chart below supports the uranium related miners/explorers having outperformed the market since June 2010.Recent months have also seen increased corporate activity in the sector from strategic and financial investors including, Paladin’s offer for NGM, Hanlong’s funding agreement with Marenica Energy, Berkeley’s placement to RCF and on-going discussions with Severstal and A-Cap’s MOU with KORES.
Source: Capital IQ, Company reports. Net Debt (for Enterprise Value calculation) taken as at 30 June 2010
Uranium Peers - Share Price Performance since 30 June 2010
Peer multiples (A$ EV/lb U3O8)
EV/lb
U3O
8 (A
$)Sh
are
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rfor
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Sinc
e Ju
ne 2
010
24.01
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Share Price Performance - November 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
bASe meTALS - SecTor performAnce
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Copper Nickel Zinc
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Share Price Performance - November 2010
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diverSified - SecTor performAnce
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induSTriAL minerALS - SecTor performAnce
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Share Price Performance - November 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
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Share Price Performance - November 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
iron ore - SecTor performAnce
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Share Price Performance - November 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
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urAnium - SecTor performAnce
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Shar
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e Per
form
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Shar
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form
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DECEMBER 2010
13
conSenSuS commodiTy price forecASTS - november
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low
Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ)
Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb)
Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb)
Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb)
AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl)
$1,372 $1,350 $1,300 $1,150 $1,000
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$27.21$21.89 $21.00 $19.81 $18.32
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$3.73 $3.78 $3.95 $3.65 $3.80
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$10.17 $10.49 $11.02$9.60 $9.25
$0.00
$4.00
$8.00
$12.00
$16.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$0.94$1.07
$1.20$1.02 $1.10
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$0.99 $1.08 $1.17$0.98 $1.00
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$10.84 $9.86 $9.04 $7.97 $8.48
$0.00$2.50$5.00$7.50
$10.00$12.50$15.00$17.50
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$59.90 $61.50 $57.85 $60.00 $53.00
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$0.96 $0.96 $0.88 $0.84 $0.78
$0.00
$0.25
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$85.02 $85.00 $92.50 $105.50 $95.00
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
Group 150
14
Gresham Advisory Partners LimitedA.B.N. 97 003 344 269
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Advised BHP Billiton on its
$204m offer for United Minerals
Corporation.
Advised BG Group on its $1bn takeover offer for
Pure Energy Resources Limited.
Advised IAMGOLD Corporation on its $265m acquisition
of Gallery Gold.
Advised Gem Diamonds on its
$300m acquisition of Kimberley Diamonds.
Advised Polaris Metals NL on
$178m takeover offer by Mineral
Resources Limited.
Advised Tethyan on its $220m
competing takeover offer by Crosby and Antogafasta/Barrick.
Advised Iluka on its $114m
institutional placement and
$353m accelerated right issue.
Advised Bannerman
Resources on its financing with
Resource Capital Funds.
Advised Iluka Resources on its
$54m Narama coal divestment to
Xstrata.
Advised Murchison Metals
on its joint venture with Mitsubishi.
2010
2010
Advised BHP Billiton on its
US$116bn iron ore production
joint venture with Rio Tinto.
2010
Introduced Denham Capital to
Trans Tasman Resources resulting
in NZ iron sands investment.
2010
2009
Advised Indophil on $545m
recommended offer from Zijin
2010
Advised BHP Billiton on the disposal of the Yabulu Nickel
refinery.
2009
Advised Allied Gold on its $54m
acquisition of Australian
Solomons Gold.
2009
Advised Brandrill Limited on its
$45m takeover offer by Ausdrill
Limited.
2009
2008
Advised Kalahari Minerals on its
$140m proposed merger with
Extract Resources.
2008
Advised Centaurus
Resources on its $20m merger
with Glengarry Resources.
2010
2009/08
2008
Advised Summit Resources on its
A$1.2bn takeover by Paladin Energy.
2007
2008
2006
2007
2008
Advised Guandong Rising on its $216m
cornerstone investment in Pan
Aust.
GRAM2009
Advised Energy Metals on its $86m
proportional takeover offer by China
Guangdong Nuclear Power Group.
2009
Mergers and Acquisitions
Takeover Defence
Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets
recenT reSourceS TrAnSAcTionS
Takeover Defence
Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets
Mergers and Acquisitions
