@gregbonnette - Ironside · Manchester, NH Police Department 2015 Year To...
Transcript of @gregbonnette - Ironside · Manchester, NH Police Department 2015 Year To...
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@gregbonnette
linkedin.com/in/gbonnette
Greg Bonnette Vice President, Strategy & Innovation
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This is NOTMinority Report
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POPULATION
110,000SQUARE MILES
35SWORN OFFICERS
237CRIME (2014)
649 Violent4743 Property
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Rise in Crime (5 Year)
• Robbery
• Burglary
• Theft from MVs
Lack of Resources
• Reduced Manpower
• Increased Demand
• Shrinking Budgets
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It is not uncommon at many police departments,
according to the National Alliance on Mental Illness,
for more than 20% of daily calls
for service to involve people who
are emotionally disturbed.
Mental illness cases swamp criminal justice system, Kevin Johnson, USA Today, 2014
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“We have replaced the hospital bed with the jail cell, the homeless shelter and the coffin”
“Some are looking to the police department to do things that you never imagined. Dealing with the mentally ill is part of that.”
“Police should not be involved this process at all, but nobody else can or wants to do it.”
“Law enforcement did not ask for this additional challenge.”
They end up here (the criminal justice system), because we are the only system that can’t say no.”
Mental illness cases swamp criminal justice system, Kevin Johnson, USA Today, 2014
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491 OVERDOSE CALLS 59 DEATHSManchester, NH Police Department 2015 Year To Date
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Govt Growth Private Growth
2015 US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Government, Private)
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Reduce Crime
Increase ActionableIntelligence for Officers
Improve Agency Efficiency & Effectiveness
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Descriptive Hot Spot Policing
2014: Descriptive
Hot Spots
• Data clean up
• Refine policing tactics
• Organizational preparedness
Predictive Hot Spot Policing
Results
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Suitable Targets
(Victims)
Motivated Offenders
Lack of Capable
Guardians
Cohen and Felson (1979)
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Crime will cluster in certain sectors of urban zones, while others remain crime free¹
Over 50% of crimes occur in 3% of places²
1) Sherman 1988,1989), 2) Pierce et al. 1988, Sherman et al. 1989a,b
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Initial results exposed data quality issues
Process issues caused incident clustering at HQ and Local Hospitals
Internal campaign to improve data quality
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Koper (1995)
12-16 Minutes = 2 Hours
Mitchell (2011)
Violent & Property (Part 1) Crimes Down 25%
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Descriptive Hot Spot Policing
2014: Descriptive
Hot Spots
• Data clean up
• Refine policing tactics
• Organizational preparedness
Predictive Hot Spot Policing
Q1 2015: Ironside
• Initial Proof of Concept
• Acquired IBM SPSS Modeler
• Data Science Mentoring & Development
Results
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Data Collection
Crime Analysis
Police Operations
Criminal Response
AlteredEnvironment
Data Management
PredictionIntervention
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Record Management
System
Parole & Probation
Liquor Licensing Traffic
Weather
Event Detail
Integration & Automation
Crime Analysis Data Hub
Crime Analysis Workbench
Community Specific Models
Data Management
Predictive Hot Spots
FullAutomation
Reporting & Visualization
Ad-hocAnalysis
Descriptive Hot Spots
Heat Maps
Other Offender, Perpetrator, Spree, Victim Analysis
Data Collection Crime Analysis Police Operations
IBM SPSSModeler 17
GIS
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IBM SPSS Modeler
Not a black box - we wanted to know what was going on underneath
Graphical - Light on coding, easy to learn
Not limited to hot spots only
Easy to merge multiple sources
Ironside
POC demonstrated significant improvement over retroactive hot spots
Brought strong data science mentors who knew the technology
High-touch side-by-side model build to transfer all knowledge
End result was acquiring a department capability to do all things predictive policing, not just a hot spot scoring engine.
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History in this square and 8 adjacent
Crime History & Incident Category
Time of Day
Day of Week
Weather Conditions
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Predictive Hot Spot Maps
15 Minute Hot Spot Patrols
=CRIME
+
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Descriptive Hot Spot Policing
2014: Descriptive
Hot Spots
• Data clean up
• Refine policing tactics
• Organizational preparedness
Predictive Hot Spot Policing
Q1 2015: Ironside
• Initial Proof of Concept
• Acquired IBM SPSS Modeler
• Data Science Mentoring & Development
Results
Q3 2015: Deployment
• 15 Minute Hot Spot Patrols
• Hot Spot Radio Call-Ins
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Robbery Burglary Theft from MV
Vs. Prior 15 Week Period 32% 7% 40%
Vs. SamePeriod Last
Year43% 11% 29%
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Manchester NH, Police Department is rated “Cutting Edge” with their Predictive Hot Spots Policing Initiative
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Mayor Ted Gatsas & Board of Alderman
•Approval & Funding
Chief Nick Willard
•Primary Sponsor
•Drove Alignment
•Created Accountability
Officer Matthew Barter, S.W.A.T.
•Champion / Evangelist
•Crime Analyst
•Subject Matter Expert
Krista Comrie
•Crime Analyst
•Subject Matter Expert
Chi Shu
•Ironside Data Scientist
•Statistics and Machine Learning Domain Expert
Tony Schaffer
•Manchester , NH IS
•City GIS and Data Systems Domain Expert
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Top down support (Police Driven)
Willingness to Change
Focus on Interested Personnel
Collaboration with IT Staff Early & Often
Organizational Preparedness Create System of Accountability (e.g. CompStat) Align on Data Quality
Keep Deployment Simple
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Less is More
Be Prescriptive to a Point
Set Performance Goals
Make it Competitive
Make it Accountable
Highlight Wins Publicly
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Offender Based Modeling
Predictive Hot Spot methodology for traffic accidents Areas to increase traffic enforcement
Secure grant funding
Gun Crime Analysis
Everyday Data Prep Tasks Faster ability to run queries
Create streams so information can be routinely run
Dash Boards, Improved KPI tracking, etc.
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https://youtu.be/BNeMoIbEgI8
http://nh1.com/news/predictive-analytics-help-manchester-police-solve-crimes-with-computers-not-guns/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/05/12/mental-health-system-crisis/7746535/
http://www.usatoday.com/longform/news/nation/2014/07/21/mental-illness-law-enforcement-cost-of-not-caring/9951239/
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES9000000001
http://cops.usdoj.gov/html/dispatch/06-2012/hot-spots-and-sacramento-pd.asp
http://www.dhhs.nh.gov/dcbcs/bdas/documents/issue-brief-heroin.pdf
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR233.html
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9735.html
http://www.rand.org/blog/2013/11/predictive-policing-an-effective-tool-but-not-a-crystal.html
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR531.html
https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/Publications/abstract.aspx?ID=167664