Greg Brinkman Debbie Lew
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Greg Brinkman Debbie Lew National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Colorado USA Western Wind and Solar Integration Study: February TRC meeting – Transmission build test case
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Western Wind and Solar Integration Study: February TRC meeting – Transmission build test case. Greg Brinkman Debbie Lew. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Colorado USA. Transmission expansion. Use high-wind scenario as test case - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Greg Brinkman Debbie Lew
Greg BrinkmanDebbie Lew
National Renewable Energy LaboratoryGolden, Colorado USA
Western Wind and Solar Integration Study:
February TRC meeting – Transmission build test case
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
Transmission expansion
• Use high-wind scenario as test case• Assume both existing and new transmission is used
optimally• Run case in PLEXOS for full year• Build 500 MW along interfaces with “high” shadow price
• Cutoff is $10/MW per hour• $1600/MW-mi * 0.11/yr (FCR) * 250 miles * 1/8760 yr/hr =
$5/MW per hour
• Continue iterating until no more lines built• Initial run plus 9 iterations
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Transmission buildout statisticsit0 it1 it2 it3 it4 it5 it6 it7 it8 it9
MW interface capacity built 7500 6000 4000 3000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500
Curtailment (TWh) 30.7 19.3 13.2 8.6 6.4 4.9 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.5
Curtailment (fraction of wind + solar) 0.119 0.075 0.051 0.033 0.025 0.019 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.014
$/MWh reduction in curtailment (marginal) $29 $43 $38 $61 $44 $84 $403 $104 $222
$/MWh reduction in curtailment (average) $29 $34 $35 $37 $38 $39 $40 $41 $42
Production cost (billion) $15.2 $13.9 $13.3 $12.9 $12.6 $12.5 $12.3 $12.3 $12.2 $12.1
Δ production cost (billion) -$1.33 -$0.61 -$0.38 -$0.27 -$0.16 - $0.13 -$0.07 -$0.08 -$0.04
Build cost/yr (billion) - rule of thumb $0.33 $0.26 $0.18 $0.13 $0.07 $0.07 $0.04 $0.04 $0.02
Marginal value per $ 4.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.7
Average value per $ 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.73
Iteration 0
(original WECC LRS interface estimates)
MW transfer capacity between transmission zones
Iteration 1
MW transfer capacity increase from iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
Iteration 2
MW transfer capacity increase from iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
Iteration 3
MW transfer capacity increase from iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
Iteration 4
MW transfer capacity increase from iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
Iteration 5
MW transfer capacity increase from iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
Iteration 6
MW transfer capacity increase from iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
Iteration 7
MW transfer capacity increase from iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
Iteration 8
MW transfer capacity increase from iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
Iteration 9
MW transfer capacity increase from iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
Transmission expansion
• Decided at December TRC meeting to produce statistics for a high, low, and medium transmission buildout
• Metric for low, medium, high buildouts?• Value, shadow price, curtailment, etc.
• Levers to turn• Shadow price threshold• Number of iterations• “Art”
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Buildout by shadow price thresholdShadow price threshold ($/MWh)----> $ 5 $ 10 ** $ 15 $ 20 Alberta_to_British Columbia 5000 3500 2500 1500Alberta_to_Montana 0 0 0 0Arizona_to_California_South 1000 1000 1000 1000Arizona_to_Colorado 5000 1500 0 0Arizona_to_IID 500 500 500 500Arizona_to_LDWP 5000 500 500 500Arizona_to_Nevada_South 0 0 0 0Arizona_to_New Mexico 0 0 0 0Arizona_to_San Diego 500 500 500 500Arizona_to_Utah 500 500 500 500British Columbia_to_Northwest 4000 2000 0 0California_North_to_California_South 0 0 0 0California_North_to_Nevada_North 5000 1500 1500 1000California_North_to_Northwest 500 0 0 0California_North_to_San Francisco 1500 1500 1000 500California_North_to_SMUD 0 0 0 0California_South_to_IID 1500 500 0 0California_South_to_LDWP 0 0 0 0California_South_to_Nevada_North 0 0 0 0California_South_to_Nevada_South 0 0 0 0California_South_to_San Diego 0 0 0 0Colorado_to_Montana 1000 0 0 0Colorado_to_New Mexico 1000 0 0 0Colorado_to_Utah 0 0 0 0Colorado_to_Wyoming 1000 0 0 0Idaho_to_Montana 0 0 0 0Idaho_to_Nevada_North 3000 500 500 500Idaho_to_Northwest 0 0 0 0Idaho_to_Utah 5000 1000 0 0Idaho_to_Wyoming 0 0 0 0IID_to_San Diego 500 500 500 500LDWP_to_Nevada_North 0 0 0 0LDWP_to_Nevada_South 0 0 0 0LDWP_to_Northwest 500 500 0 0LDWP_to_Utah 0 0 0 0Mexico (CFE)_to_New Mexico 4500 500 500 500Mexico (CFE)_to_San Diego 4500 1500 1500 1500Montana_to_Northwest 5000 2500 1500 1000Montana_to_Wyoming 0 0 0 0Nevada_North_to_Nevada_South 500 500 500 500Nevada_North_to_Northwest 1000 1000 1000 500Nevada_North_to_Utah 0 0 0 0Nevada_South_to_Utah 500 500 500 500Utah_to_Wyoming 5000 3500 2500 1500
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** - $10/MW per hour was the shadow price threshold used for this analysis
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Questions?
Greg Brinkman303-384-7390 [email protected]
Debbie [email protected]
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Extra slides for addressing potential questions
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Renewable generation profilesSolar
• Remake all solar generation data, down to 1-min resolution• PV is 60% of solar, CSP is 40%
Distribution to regions based on the ReEDS resultsDistribution within regions based on the following rules:
• Rooftop PV is 40% of PV where possible • Capacity distributed by population (same capacity per person)• Maximum capacity per grid cell of 1 kW/person• All scenarios use same sites with different capacity per grid cell
• Distributed utility PV is ~20% of PV• Sited near population areas• Scenarios use subset of sites
• “Remote-site” utility PV is 40% of PV• Sited based on capacity factor• Scenarios use subset of sites
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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
Renewable generation profilesWind
• Sited by capacity factor within ReEDS region• Close capacity factor sites were sometimes substituted so not all wind
was in same location• Use WWSIS phase 1 data set• Statistically downsampled data available for subhourly analysis
Load• 2006 1-min data available from WECC VGS• 2004 or 2005?
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Sample map of solar sites
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1
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22 23
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36 37
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52 53
59
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135
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Unused Original Sites
Rooftop
Population located PV
CSP
Best Resource Utility
Point
Point
Point
Point
Point
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
High wind (25% wind, 4.8% PV, 3.2% CSP)
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Intermediate (16.5% wind, 9.9% PV, 6.6% CSP)
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High solar (8% wind, 15% PV, 10% CSP)
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Retirement Scenarios
• All scenarios (including base case TEPPC 2020)• Probably use WECC TEPPC DWG projections• May need to add capacity if additional units are retired from
TEPPC 2020 case• Gas CC added in locations where capacity is retired
• Sensitivity analysis on additional retirements for renewable scenarios• Amount retired will be based on capacity value of renewables
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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
Transmission zones
• Run zonally initially. Nodal runs at a later date for deeper dives.
• Propose to use these 20 TEPPC zones. Aiming at more rather than less zones to better approximate actual current operations.
• Commit and dispatch within each zone with no hurdle rates between zones to allow for interzone transfers.
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Capacity (GW) by state for 3 scenarios
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HighWind Intermediate HighSolar
Wind PV CSP Wind PV CSP Wind PV CSP
AZ 4.3 4.8 4.0 1.4 9.5 9.5 0.2 14.5 9.7
CA 11.1 11.6 3.0 5.9 16.1 3.8 5.4 19.4 9.2
CO 5.5 2.5 0.2 3.9 2.6 0.2 3.0 5.1 1.3
ID 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
MT 5.9 0.1 0.0 4.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
NM 4.2 0.4 0.1 2.8 2.1 0.3 0.5 3.2 0.6
NV 2.8 0.9 0.6 1.4 4.1 0.6 0.2 6.6 0.6
OR 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SD 2.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
TX 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0
UT 1.1 0.9 0.0 0.6 2.2 0.0 0.3 4.9 0.0
WA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
WY 9.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0
Total 47.3 21.3 7.8 29.6 37.1 14.4 13.0 54.2 21.3
