Greening Development: Inger Andersen, 7 March 2011
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Transcript of Greening Development: Inger Andersen, 7 March 2011
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Greening Development:
Rio+ 20 and beyond
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Things have changed since the early 1990s
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An explosion in purchasing power–
particularly in developing countries
Population: +1.2 billion
GDP: +$5.5 trillion
(+130%)
GDP per capita: +80%
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Greater wealth has led to greater consumption…
still dominated by rich countries
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1992 2009
Co
nst
an
t 2000 $ t
rillio
n
High income countries
Low & middle income
countries
2009
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Substantial progress on social indicators, even
if much remains to be done
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35
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45
1990 2005 2015
Poverty rate ($1.25/day)
-445 million
people
-453 million people
But 918 million people still
expected to live in poverty
by 2015
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Much less progress on the environmental side
50
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130
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170
1992
1993
1994
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1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
PM10, country level CO2 emissions
Reduced air pollution from particulates, but
massive increase in GHGs….
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Time to rethink our growth paradigm
Y=F (K, L, A, E)
with A=F(…E, Epol)
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Trust in our ability to innovate and green at
low cost
EU Nitrates
Directive
EPA SO2
reductions
(Phase 1)
EU
IPPC
Directive
EPA Dinoseb
ban
EPA
phase-out
of leaded
gas
EU
packaging
waste
Directive
EU
regulation
in the
power
sector
Ozone
Depleting
Substances
phase-out
(Harrington et al. 2000), Oosterhuis (2006)
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Green growth – a new emphasis within
sustainable development
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Green growth – a new emphasis within
sustainable development
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Why might
this work now?
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A rethinking of current growth paradigm
Fragility and volatility…
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Doubts on its ability to deliver from a social and humanitarian point of view
64
36
20
80
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And even more so from an environmental point
of view
Rockström et al., Nature 2009
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How to make
it happen?
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Get the prices right….
necessary, non sufficient…
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Consumption
Subsidies to fossil
fuels
Cost of support
to renewable
energy
billio
n $
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Technology transition…
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Infrastructure transition— Today’s choices will
lock in lifestyles, energy use, and vulnerability
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Infrastructure transition— Today’s choices will
lock in lifestyles, energy use, and vulnerability
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Cities are growing fast….
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1
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1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Billions of people living in urban areas
Urban
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Natural resource management transition
Loess plateau- before
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Natural resource management transition
Loess plateau- after
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Human capital transition
Source: World Development Report 2010 based on UNESCO Institute for Statistics.
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Social capital transition
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A green growth knowledge platform to focus
our efforts around:
Green Growth
Platform
Innovation
Efficiency
Jobs & Poverty
Economic & Environmental
Risks