1

Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe:Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe: trends and projectionstrends and projections

François Dejean

Climate change and energyEuropean Environment Agency

Annual Meeting of the Climate Broadcasters Network – Europe

Monte-Carlo, 6 April 2008

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ContentsContents

1. Short background on EEA2. Short background on reporting of GHG

emissions3. Main GHG emission sources4. Progress to Kyoto targets in Europe5. What EU and countries do to reduce

emissions6. Main trends (past/projected) by sector

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European Environment AgencyEuropean Environment Agency

• The EU body dedicated to providing timely, targeted, relevant and reliable information on the environment

• To help the EU and member countries make informed decisions about improving the environment

• 32 members + collaborating countries

www.eea.europa.euMember countriesCollaborating countries

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Legal basis for reporting GHG Legal basis for reporting GHG emissions and national programmesemissions and national programmes

• UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol• IPCC Guidelines• IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty

Management• UNFCCC Guidelines on annual GHG inventories• UNFCCC common reporting format tables• National Communications to UNFCCC

• European Community• Council Decision 2004/280/EC concerning a

mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol, and implementing provisions.

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EEA annual report on GHG inventoriesEEA annual report on GHG inventories 2006 report on Kyoto 2006 report on Kyoto assigned amountsassigned amounts

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EEA annual report on GHG trends and EEA annual report on GHG trends and projections in Europeprojections in Europe

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EnergyEnergy--related emissions cause 80% related emissions cause 80% of EU GHG emissionsof EU GHG emissions

8

Kyoto targets in European countriesKyoto targets in European countries-350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50

EU-15 -8.0%

Germany -21.0%

United Kingdom -12.5%

Italy -6.5%

Denmark -21.0%

Netherlands -6.0%

Belgium -7.5%

Austria -13.0%

Luxembourg -28.0%

Finland 0.0%

France 0.0%

Sweden +4.0%

Ireland +13.0%

Portugal +27.0%

Greece +25.0%

Spain +15.0%

Poland -6.0%

Romania -8.0%

Czech Republic -8.0%

Bulgaria -8.0%

Hungary -6.0%

Slovakia -8.0%

Lithuania -8.0%

Estonia -8.0%

Latvia -8.0%

Slovenia -8.0%

Cyprus (no target)

Malta (no target)

Greenhouse gas emissions (Mt CO2 equivalent)

Kyoto commitment period: 2008-2012Kyoto targets can be met through:• Domestic policies and measures

(actions within national territory)• Use of “flexibility mechanisms”

(credits through carbon cutting activities in other countries) must be “supplemental to domestic action”!

9

92.1

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

EU-27 GHG emissions

Inde

x 10

0 =

base

yea

r (EU

-15)

Inde

x 10

0 =

1990

(EU

-27)

EU-27 2020 target (-20%)

92.1

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Inde

x 10

0 =

base

yea

r (E

U-1

5)In

dex

100

= 19

90 (E

U-2

7)

EU-15 GHG emissions EU-27 GHG emissions

Kyoto period

2008-2012

EU-15 Kyoto target (-8%)

EU-27 2020 target (-20%)

98.0

92.1

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Inde

x 10

0 =

base

yea

r (E

U-1

5)In

dex

100

= 19

90 (E

U-2

7)

EU-15 GHG emissions EU-27 GHG emissions

Kyoto period

2008-2012

EU-15 Kyoto target (-8%)

EU-27 2020 target (-20%)

98.0

103.7

92.1

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Inde

x 10

0 =

base

yea

r (E

U-1

5)In

dex

100

= 19

90 (E

U-2

7)

EU-15 GHG emissions EU-15 CO2 emissions EU-27 GHG emissions

Kyoto period

2008-2012

EU-15 Kyoto target (-8%)

EU-27 2020 target (-20%)

EU greenhouse gas emissions 1990EU greenhouse gas emissions 1990--20052005

10

90.793.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions

Inde

x 10

0 =

1990

leve

l European Council 2020 reduction target

`

90.793.4 92.5

80

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Inde

x 10

0 =

1990

leve

l

EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions EU-27 with existing measures projections

European Council 2020 reduction target

`

93.4 90.7 92.5

8088.9

92.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Inde

x 10

0 =

1990

leve

l

EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions EU-27 with existing measures projections

EU-27 with additional measures projections

European Council 2020 reduction target

`

93.4 90.7 92.5

8088.9

92.1 94

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Inde

x 10

0 =

1990

leve

l

EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions EU-27 with existing measures projections

EU-27 with additional measures projections EU-27 projected 2020

European Council 2020 reduction target

`

EUEU--27 emissions are projected to be 10% 27 emissions are projected to be 10% below 1990 with all measuresbelow 1990 with all measures

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-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%Reductions achieved in 2005

(-2.0 %)

EU-15 Kyoto target: - 8 %

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Projected reductions by 2010with the existing measures

(-4.0 %)

Reductions achieved in 2005 (-2.0 %)

EU-15 Kyoto target: - 8 %

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Projected reductions by 2010with the existing measures

(-4.0 %)

Reductions achieved in 2005 (-2.0 %)

EU-15 Kyoto target: - 8 %

Total reduction by 2010: -11.4 %(projections from 2007)

Implementation of planned additional measures (-3.9 %)

Use of Kyoto mechanisms (-2.5 %)

CO2 removal by carbon sinks (-0.9 %)

EU-15 Member States projections (2007) for the Kyoto period

EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in 2005

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EUEU--15 emission trends and projections15 emission trends and projections

96.9 96.6 96.0

98.0

92.1

88.6

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

GHG emissions (Base-year level = 100)

EU-15 trendEU-15 with existing measures projectionsEU-15 with additional measures projectionsEU-15 with add. measures projections,carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanismsEU-15 Kyoto target (2008-2012)

Kyoto Protocol commitment period

2008-2012

Use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanismsEU-15 Kyoto target

13

4.0%

-10.7%

-7.4%

-1.4%

5.4%

17.3%

0.9%

19.6%

3.9%

9.6%

30.2%

9.7%

39.9%

19.6%

11.3%

27.3%

-3.4%

-11.2%

-10.4%

-4.7%

-3.9%

-3.4%

-2.0%

-0.9%

-0.7%

-0.4%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.5%

2.0%

14.2%

-4.1%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

EU-15

United Kingdom

Sweden

Germany

Netherlands

Portugal

France

Finland

Belgium

Ireland

Austria

Greece

Luxembourg

Italy

Denmark

Spain

Percent points over-delivery (-) or shortfall (+) respective of emission targetProjections for 2010 with existing measuresProjections for 2010 with all measures, use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms

Three EU15 MS project not to reach their targets Three EU15 MS project not to reach their targets (gaps smaller than in 2006; EU ETS not fully taken into account)(gaps smaller than in 2006; EU ETS not fully taken into account)

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GHG emissions of new Member States reduced 28% GHG emissions of new Member States reduced 28% (1990(1990--2005), but will increase (to 20% below 1990)2005), but will increase (to 20% below 1990)

72.270.8

80.7 82.6

80.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

GHG emissions (1990 level = 100)

New MS trends New MS with existing measures projections New MS with additional measures projections

Kyoto Protocol commitment period

2008-2012

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All new EU MS project to reach their targetsAll new EU MS project to reach their targets-48.6%

-38.2%

-29.0%

-23.9%

-22.5%

-22.4%

-22.2%

-17.8%

-12.2%

14.8%

-51.9%

-40.6%

-33.7%

-27.8%

-20.8%

-15.3%

-4.7%

-22.7%

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Estonia

Latvia

Bulgaria

Romania

Hungary

Poland

Lithuania

Czech Republic

Slovakia

Slovenia

Percent points over-delivery (-) or shortfall (+) respective of emission targetProjections for 2010 with existing measuresProjections for 2010 with all measures, use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms

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Key EU (domestic) policies and Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce GHG emissionsmeasures to reduce GHG emissions

• EU emissions trading scheme• Promotion of electricity from renewable energy• Promotion of combined heat and power (CHP)• Improvements in the energy performance of

buildings and energy efficiency in large industrial installations

• Promotion of the use of energy-efficient appliances• Promotion of biofuels in transport • Reducing the average carbon dioxide emissions of new

passenger cars• Energy taxation• Recovery of gases from landfills• Reduction of fluorinated gases

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The EU emissions trading schemeThe EU emissions trading scheme

• Brief description• 10 800 installations in the EU (energy and industry sectors)• CO2 emissions only (so far)• ~ 40% of total EU GHG emissions• 7% of installations represent 80% of emissions from ETS• Maximum annual emissions allowed for each installation• Trading of allowances on a European carbon market• Use of Kyoto mechanisms allowed up to a certain limit (0-20%)

• 2005-2007 (phase I)• not much abatement observed (overallocation)

carbon prices fell to almost 0 €/tCO2

• useful as a trial phase• 2008-2012 (phase II)

• Kyoto commitment period• much stricter caps reinforced by European Commission (7 %

below 2005/2006 emissions)• current carbon price (04/04/2008): 23 €/tCO2

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Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI) by Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI) by 12 EU MS is about 2.5% of 12 EU MS is about 2.5% of --8% target (107.5 Mt)8% target (107.5 Mt)

Member State

Planned use of Kyoto mechanisms by

government to meet its burden sharing target

Projected emission reduction 2008–12 [Million tonnes CO2 -

equivalents per year]

Allocated Budget [EUR million]

Austria Yes 9.0 319

Belgium Yes 7.0 104

Denmark Yes 4.2 152

Finland Yes 2.4 120

Germany No - 23

Ireland Yes 2.4 290

Italy Yes 19.0 170

Luxembourg Yes 4.7 300

Netherlands Yes 20.0 693

Portugal Yes 5.8 354

Spain Yes 31.8 310

Sweden Yes (1.2)a 25

EU-15 Yes 107.5 2 860

Slovenia Yes < 0.6 -

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EUEU--15 GHG emissions decreased (except transport) 15 GHG emissions decreased (except transport) and projected to further decrease in most sectorsand projected to further decrease in most sectors

-7%

-4%

-3%

4%

0%

-3%

25%

-4%

-9%

0%

-38%

-11%

-16%

-1%

-1%

-50% -30% -10% 10% 30%

Waste

Agriculture

Industrial processes

Transport

Energy excl. transport

Waste

Agriculture

Industrial processes

Transport

Energy excl. transport

Waste

Agriculture

Industrial processes

Transport

Energy excl. transport

Projected effect of additional measures, 2005–2010

Past change in GHG emissions, base-year–2005

Projected change with existing measures, 2005–2010

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Thank you for your attention! Thank you for your attention! See you at See you at www.eea.europa.euwww.eea.europa.eu

www.eea.europa.euwww.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/themes/climate KidsKids’’ zone: zone: http://http://ecoagents.eea.europa.euecoagents.eea.europa.eu & &

http://http://honoloko.eea.europa.euhonoloko.eea.europa.eu

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Additional slidesAdditional slides

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Electricity production in thermal power plants (+38Electricity production in thermal power plants (+38 %) %) drove COdrove CO 22 emissions from electricity/heat production emissions from electricity/heat production up by +6up by +6 % between 1990 and 2005 in the EU% between 1990 and 2005 in the EU--1515

106

135

149

138 143

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

CO2 emissions (past) Electricity consumption (past)

Electricity consumption (projected) Electricity production (past)Electricity production (projected)

93

129

144

130138

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

CO2 emissions (past) Electricity consumption (past)

Electricity consumption (projected) Electricity production (past)

Electricity production (projected)

EU15 EU27

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Share of renewable energy in EUShare of renewable energy in EU--27 electricity 27 electricity consumption increased to 14% in 2005 consumption increased to 14% in 2005

(2010 target: 21%, total 2020 RES target: 20%), (2010 target: 21%, total 2020 RES target: 20%), many MS not on trackmany MS not on track

1411.8

48.4

7.510.5

3.2 3.9 2.8 4.51.1 2.9

54.3

6.8

11.314.1 15

57.9

16

0 0

24.2

10

16.5

28.2 26.9

4.34.6

35.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

EU

27

Rom

ania

Hun

gary

Bul

garia

Den

mar

k

Latv

ia

Net

herla

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Ger

man

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Luxe

mbo

urg

Lith

uani

a

Bel

gium

Cze

ch R

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lic

Est

onia

Pol

and

Finl

and

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Sw

eden

Irela

nd

Slo

veni

a

Fran

ce

Gre

ece

Italy

Spa

in

Slo

vaki

a

Aus

tria

Por

tuga

l

Mal

ta

Cyp

rus

% e

lect

ricity

con

sum

ptio

n

Indi

cativ

e ta

rget

21

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Share of electricity from combined heat Share of electricity from combined heat and power (CHP) in EUand power (CHP) in EU--27 electricity production 27 electricity production

stabilised between 2000 and 2004 (10.5%)stabilised between 2000 and 2004 (10.5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%EU

27EU

15EU

12D

enm

ark

Finl

and

Latv

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ethe

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oman

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unga

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Cze

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epub

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stria

Lith

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xem

bour

gEs

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Belg

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Italy

Swed

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ain

Bulg

aria

Uni

ted

King

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Slov

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Fran

ceIre

land

Gre

ece

Cyp

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Mal

ta

% to

tal e

lect

ricity

pro

duct

ion

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COCO 22 emissions from households decreased emissions from households decreased by 1.7 % from 1990 to 2005, by 1.7 % from 1990 to 2005,

the number of dwellings increased by 18 %the number of dwellings increased by 18 %

102

118

124

99

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

CO2 emissions (past) Number of households (projected), Mio

Number of households (projected) Heating degree days

93

122

101

117

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

CO2 emissions (past) Number of households (projected)

Heating degree days Number of households (past), Mio

EU15 EU27

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EUEU--15 greenhouse gas emissions from domestic 15 greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport increased by 26 % between 1990 and 2005 transport increased by 26 % between 1990 and 2005

and could be stabilised at current levelsand could be stabilised at current levels

EU15 EU27

126 125118

128

139

162

173

100

115

130

145

160

175

190

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012GHG emissions (past)GHG project ions with exist ing measuresGHG project ions with addit ional measuresPassenger kilometers in cars (past)Passenger kilometers in cars (projected)Freight kilometers on road (past)Freight kilometers on road (projected)

126 126120

131143

159

181

100

115

130

145

160

175

190

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

GHG emissions (past)GHG projections with existing measuresGHG projections with additional measuresPassenger kilometers in cars (past)Passenger kilometers in cars (projected)Freight kilometers on road (past)Freight kilometers on road (projected)

27

Average COAverage CO 22 emissions of new passenger cars emissions of new passenger cars were reduced by 12were reduced by 12 % from 1995 to 2004, % from 1995 to 2004,

but progress is slowing downbut progress is slowing down

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The growth of transport emissions could The growth of transport emissions could annihilate all efforts to curb total emissionsannihilate all efforts to curb total emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

-60 %

Total GHG emissions(EU-27)

-80 %Annual growth rate: +1.3 % / year

Transport emissions(excl. aviation)

Source: European Environment Agency

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Carbon sinks will bring play a minor role towards Carbon sinks will bring play a minor role towards reaching the Kyoto target (reaching the Kyoto target (--0.9% from base0.9% from base--year)year)

• Carbon sinks are projected to represent 39 Mt CO2 /year, in the EU-15, equivalent to about 1/10 of the target reduction from EU-15 base-year emissions

• Forest management is the main activity elected under Art. 3.4• 16 MS (10 from EU-15) elected forest management • Additionally, 3 EU-15 MS elected cropland

management• 2 EU-15 MS elected grazing-land management• 1 new MS elected revegetation