Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe: trends and...

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1 Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe: Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe: trends and projections trends and projections François Dejean Climate change and energy European Environment Agency Annual Meeting of the Climate Broadcasters Network – Europe Monte-Carlo, 6 April 2008
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  • 1

    Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe:Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe: trends and projectionstrends and projections

    François Dejean

    Climate change and energyEuropean Environment Agency

    Annual Meeting of the Climate Broadcasters Network – Europe

    Monte-Carlo, 6 April 2008

  • 2

    ContentsContents

    1. Short background on EEA2. Short background on reporting of GHG

    emissions3. Main GHG emission sources4. Progress to Kyoto targets in Europe5. What EU and countries do to reduce

    emissions6. Main trends (past/projected) by sector

  • 3

    European Environment AgencyEuropean Environment Agency

    • The EU body dedicated to providing timely, targeted, relevant and reliable information on the environment

    • To help the EU and member countries make informed decisions about improving the environment

    • 32 members + collaborating countries

    www.eea.europa.euMember countriesCollaborating countries

  • 4

    Legal basis for reporting GHG Legal basis for reporting GHG emissions and national programmesemissions and national programmes

    • UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol• IPCC Guidelines• IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty

    Management• UNFCCC Guidelines on annual GHG inventories• UNFCCC common reporting format tables• National Communications to UNFCCC

    • European Community• Council Decision 2004/280/EC concerning a

    mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol, and implementing provisions.

  • 5

    EEA annual report on GHG inventoriesEEA annual report on GHG inventories 2006 report on Kyoto 2006 report on Kyoto assigned amountsassigned amounts

  • 6

    EEA annual report on GHG trends and EEA annual report on GHG trends and projections in Europeprojections in Europe

  • 7

    EnergyEnergy--related emissions cause 80% related emissions cause 80% of EU GHG emissionsof EU GHG emissions

  • 8

    Kyoto targets in European countriesKyoto targets in European countries-350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50

    EU-15 -8.0%

    Germany -21.0%

    United Kingdom -12.5%

    Italy -6.5%

    Denmark -21.0%

    Netherlands -6.0%

    Belgium -7.5%

    Austria -13.0%

    Luxembourg -28.0%

    Finland 0.0%

    France 0.0%

    Sweden +4.0%

    Ireland +13.0%

    Portugal +27.0%

    Greece +25.0%

    Spain +15.0%

    Poland -6.0%

    Romania -8.0%

    Czech Republic -8.0%

    Bulgaria -8.0%

    Hungary -6.0%

    Slovakia -8.0%

    Lithuania -8.0%

    Estonia -8.0%

    Latvia -8.0%

    Slovenia -8.0%

    Cyprus (no target)

    Malta (no target)

    Greenhouse gas emissions (Mt CO2 equivalent)

    Kyoto commitment period: 2008-2012Kyoto targets can be met through:• Domestic policies and measures

    (actions within national territory)• Use of “flexibility mechanisms”

    (credits through carbon cutting activities in other countries) must be “supplemental to domestic action”!

  • 9

    92.1

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    EU-27 GHG emissions

    Inde

    x 10

    0 =

    base

    yea

    r (EU

    -15)

    Inde

    x 10

    0 =

    1990

    (EU

    -27)

    EU-27 2020 target (-20%)

    92.1

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    Inde

    x 10

    0 =

    base

    yea

    r (E

    U-1

    5)In

    dex

    100

    = 19

    90 (E

    U-2

    7)

    EU-15 GHG emissions EU-27 GHG emissions

    Kyoto period

    2008-2012

    EU-15 Kyoto target (-8%)

    EU-27 2020 target (-20%)

    98.0

    92.1

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    Inde

    x 10

    0 =

    base

    yea

    r (E

    U-1

    5)In

    dex

    100

    = 19

    90 (E

    U-2

    7)

    EU-15 GHG emissions EU-27 GHG emissions

    Kyoto period

    2008-2012

    EU-15 Kyoto target (-8%)

    EU-27 2020 target (-20%)

    98.0

    103.7

    92.1

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    Inde

    x 10

    0 =

    base

    yea

    r (E

    U-1

    5)In

    dex

    100

    = 19

    90 (E

    U-2

    7)

    EU-15 GHG emissions EU-15 CO2 emissions EU-27 GHG emissions

    Kyoto period

    2008-2012

    EU-15 Kyoto target (-8%)

    EU-27 2020 target (-20%)

    EU greenhouse gas emissions 1990EU greenhouse gas emissions 1990--20052005

  • 10

    90.793.4

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions

    Inde

    x 10

    0 =

    1990

    leve

    l European Council 2020 reduction target

    `

    90.793.4 92.5

    80

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    Inde

    x 10

    0 =

    1990

    leve

    l

    EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions EU-27 with existing measures projections

    European Council 2020 reduction target

    `

    93.4 90.7 92.5

    8088.9

    92.1

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    Inde

    x 10

    0 =

    1990

    leve

    l

    EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions EU-27 with existing measures projections

    EU-27 with additional measures projections

    European Council 2020 reduction target

    `

    93.4 90.7 92.5

    8088.9

    92.1 94

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    Inde

    x 10

    0 =

    1990

    leve

    l

    EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions EU-27 with existing measures projections

    EU-27 with additional measures projections EU-27 projected 2020

    European Council 2020 reduction target

    `

    EUEU--27 emissions are projected to be 10% 27 emissions are projected to be 10% below 1990 with all measuresbelow 1990 with all measures

  • 11

    -12%

    -10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%Reductions achieved in 2005

    (-2.0 %)

    EU-15 Kyoto target: - 8 %

    -12%

    -10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    Projected reductions by 2010with the existing measures

    (-4.0 %)

    Reductions achieved in 2005 (-2.0 %)

    EU-15 Kyoto target: - 8 %

    -12%

    -10%

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    Projected reductions by 2010with the existing measures

    (-4.0 %)

    Reductions achieved in 2005 (-2.0 %)

    EU-15 Kyoto target: - 8 %

    Total reduction by 2010: -11.4 %(projections from 2007)

    Implementation of planned additional measures (-3.9 %)

    Use of Kyoto mechanisms (-2.5 %)

    CO2 removal by carbon sinks (-0.9 %)

    EU-15 Member States projections (2007) for the Kyoto period

    EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in 2005

  • 12

    EUEU--15 emission trends and projections15 emission trends and projections

    96.9 96.6 96.0

    98.0

    92.1

    88.6

    80

    90

    100

    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

    GHG emissions (Base-year level = 100)

    EU-15 trendEU-15 with existing measures projectionsEU-15 with additional measures projectionsEU-15 with add. measures projections,carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanismsEU-15 Kyoto target (2008-2012)

    Kyoto Protocol commitment period

    2008-2012

    Use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanismsEU-15 Kyoto target

  • 13

    4.0%

    -10.7%

    -7.4%

    -1.4%

    5.4%

    17.3%

    0.9%

    19.6%

    3.9%

    9.6%

    30.2%

    9.7%

    39.9%

    19.6%

    11.3%

    27.3%

    -3.4%

    -11.2%

    -10.4%

    -4.7%

    -3.9%

    -3.4%

    -2.0%

    -0.9%

    -0.7%

    -0.4%

    -0.1%

    0.0%

    0.5%

    2.0%

    14.2%

    -4.1%

    -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

    EU-15

    United Kingdom

    Sweden

    Germany

    Netherlands

    Portugal

    France

    Finland

    Belgium

    Ireland

    Austria

    Greece

    Luxembourg

    Italy

    Denmark

    Spain

    Percent points over-delivery (-) or shortfall (+) respective of emission targetProjections for 2010 with existing measuresProjections for 2010 with all measures, use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms

    Three EU15 MS project not to reach their targets Three EU15 MS project not to reach their targets (gaps smaller than in 2006; EU ETS not fully taken into account)(gaps smaller than in 2006; EU ETS not fully taken into account)

  • 14

    GHG emissions of new Member States reduced 28% GHG emissions of new Member States reduced 28% (1990(1990--2005), but will increase (to 20% below 1990)2005), but will increase (to 20% below 1990)

    72.270.8

    80.7 82.6

    80.3

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    1990

    1995

    2000

    2005

    2010

    GHG emissions (1990 level = 100)

    New MS trends New MS with existing measures projections New MS with additional measures projections

    Kyoto Protocol commitment period

    2008-2012

  • 15

    All new EU MS project to reach their targetsAll new EU MS project to reach their targets-48.6%

    -38.2%

    -29.0%

    -23.9%

    -22.5%

    -22.4%

    -22.2%

    -17.8%

    -12.2%

    14.8%

    -51.9%

    -40.6%

    -33.7%

    -27.8%

    -20.8%

    -15.3%

    -4.7%

    -22.7%

    -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

    Estonia

    Latvia

    Bulgaria

    Romania

    Hungary

    Poland

    Lithuania

    Czech Republic

    Slovakia

    Slovenia

    Percent points over-delivery (-) or shortfall (+) respective of emission targetProjections for 2010 with existing measuresProjections for 2010 with all measures, use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms

  • 16

    Key EU (domestic) policies and Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce GHG emissionsmeasures to reduce GHG emissions

    • EU emissions trading scheme• Promotion of electricity from renewable energy• Promotion of combined heat and power (CHP)• Improvements in the energy performance of

    buildings and energy efficiency in large industrial installations

    • Promotion of the use of energy-efficient appliances• Promotion of biofuels in transport • Reducing the average carbon dioxide emissions of new

    passenger cars• Energy taxation• Recovery of gases from landfills• Reduction of fluorinated gases

  • 17

    The EU emissions trading schemeThe EU emissions trading scheme

    • Brief description• 10 800 installations in the EU (energy and industry sectors)• CO2 emissions only (so far)• ~ 40% of total EU GHG emissions• 7% of installations represent 80% of emissions from ETS• Maximum annual emissions allowed for each installation• Trading of allowances on a European carbon market• Use of Kyoto mechanisms allowed up to a certain limit (0-20%)

    • 2005-2007 (phase I)• not much abatement observed (overallocation)

    carbon prices fell to almost 0 €/tCO2• useful as a trial phase

    • 2008-2012 (phase II)• Kyoto commitment period• much stricter caps reinforced by European Commission (7 %

    below 2005/2006 emissions)• current carbon price (04/04/2008): 23 €/tCO2

  • 18

    Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI) by Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI) by 12 EU MS is about 2.5% of 12 EU MS is about 2.5% of --8% target (107.5 Mt)8% target (107.5 Mt)

    Member State

    Planned use of Kyoto mechanisms by

    government to meet its burden sharing target

    Projected emission reduction 2008–12 [Million tonnes CO2 -

    equivalents per year]

    Allocated Budget [EUR million]

    Austria Yes 9.0 319

    Belgium Yes 7.0 104

    Denmark Yes 4.2 152

    Finland Yes 2.4 120

    Germany No - 23

    Ireland Yes 2.4 290

    Italy Yes 19.0 170

    Luxembourg Yes 4.7 300

    Netherlands Yes 20.0 693

    Portugal Yes 5.8 354

    Spain Yes 31.8 310

    Sweden Yes (1.2)a 25

    EU-15 Yes 107.5 2 860

    Slovenia Yes < 0.6 -

  • 19

    EUEU--15 GHG emissions decreased (except transport) 15 GHG emissions decreased (except transport) and projected to further decrease in most sectorsand projected to further decrease in most sectors

    -7%

    -4%

    -3%

    4%

    0%

    -3%

    25%

    -4%

    -9%

    0%

    -38%

    -11%

    -16%

    -1%

    -1%

    -50% -30% -10% 10% 30%

    Waste

    Agriculture

    Industrial processes

    Transport

    Energy excl. transport

    Waste

    Agriculture

    Industrial processes

    Transport

    Energy excl. transport

    Waste

    Agriculture

    Industrial processes

    Transport

    Energy excl. transport

    Projected effect of additional measures, 2005–2010

    Past change in GHG emissions, base-year–2005

    Projected change with existing measures, 2005–2010

  • 20

    Thank you for your attention! Thank you for your attention! See you at See you at www.eea.europa.euwww.eea.europa.eu

    www.eea.europa.euwww.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/themes/climate KidsKids’’ zone: zone: http://http://ecoagents.eea.europa.euecoagents.eea.europa.eu & &

    http://http://honoloko.eea.europa.euhonoloko.eea.europa.eu

  • 21

    Additional slidesAdditional slides

  • 22

    Electricity production in thermal power plants (+38Electricity production in thermal power plants (+38 %) %) drove COdrove CO 22 emissions from electricity/heat production emissions from electricity/heat production up by +6up by +6 % between 1990 and 2005 in the EU% between 1990 and 2005 in the EU--1515

    106

    135

    149

    138 143

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    Inde

    x (1

    990=

    100)

    CO2 emissions (past) Electricity consumption (past)

    Electricity consumption (projected) Electricity production (past)Electricity production (projected)

    93

    129

    144

    130138

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    Inde

    x (1

    990=

    100)

    CO2 emissions (past) Electricity consumption (past)

    Electricity consumption (projected) Electricity production (past)

    Electricity production (projected)

    EU15 EU27

  • 23

    Share of renewable energy in EUShare of renewable energy in EU--27 electricity 27 electricity consumption increased to 14% in 2005 consumption increased to 14% in 2005

    (2010 target: 21%, total 2020 RES target: 20%), (2010 target: 21%, total 2020 RES target: 20%), many MS not on trackmany MS not on track

    1411.8

    48.4

    7.510.5

    3.2 3.9 2.8 4.5 1.1 2.9

    54.3

    6.8

    11.314.1 15

    57.9

    16

    0 0

    24.2

    10

    16.5

    28.2 26.9

    4.34.6

    35.8

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    EU

    27

    Rom

    ania

    Hun

    gary

    Bul

    garia

    Den

    mar

    k

    Latv

    ia

    Net

    herla

    nds

    Ger

    man

    y

    Luxe

    mbo

    urg

    Lith

    uani

    a

    Bel

    gium

    Cze

    ch R

    epub

    lic

    Est

    onia

    Pol

    and

    Finl

    and

    Uni

    ted

    Kin

    gdom

    Sw

    eden

    Irela

    nd

    Slo

    veni

    a

    Fran

    ce

    Gre

    ece

    Italy

    Spa

    in

    Slo

    vaki

    a

    Aus

    tria

    Por

    tuga

    l

    Mal

    ta

    Cyp

    rus

    % e

    lect

    ricity

    con

    sum

    ptio

    n

    Indi

    cativ

    e ta

    rget

    21

  • 24

    Share of electricity from combined heat Share of electricity from combined heat and power (CHP) in EUand power (CHP) in EU--27 electricity production 27 electricity production

    stabilised between 2000 and 2004 (10.5%)stabilised between 2000 and 2004 (10.5%)

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    45%

    50%EU

    27EU

    15EU

    12D

    enm

    ark

    Finl

    and

    Latv

    iaN

    ethe

    rland

    sR

    oman

    iaH

    unga

    ryPo

    land

    Cze

    ch R

    epub

    licSl

    ovak

    iaAu

    stria

    Lith

    uani

    aPo

    rtuga

    lLu

    xem

    bour

    gEs

    toni

    aG

    erm

    any

    Belg

    ium

    Italy

    Swed

    enSp

    ain

    Bulg

    aria

    Uni

    ted

    King

    dom

    Slov

    enia

    Fran

    ceIre

    land

    Gre

    ece

    Cyp

    rus

    Mal

    ta

    % to

    tal e

    lect

    ricity

    pro

    duct

    ion

  • 25

    COCO 22 emissions from households decreased emissions from households decreased by 1.7 % from 1990 to 2005, by 1.7 % from 1990 to 2005,

    the number of dwellings increased by 18 %the number of dwellings increased by 18 %

    102

    118

    124

    99

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    Inde

    x (1

    990=

    100)

    CO2 emissions (past) Number of households (projected), Mio

    Number of households (projected) Heating degree days

    93

    122

    101

    117

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    Inde

    x (1

    990=

    100)

    CO2 emissions (past) Number of households (projected)

    Heating degree days Number of households (past), Mio

    EU15 EU27

  • 26

    EUEU--15 greenhouse gas emissions from domestic 15 greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport increased by 26 % between 1990 and 2005 transport increased by 26 % between 1990 and 2005

    and could be stabilised at current levelsand could be stabilised at current levels

    EU15 EU27

    126 125118

    128

    139

    162

    173

    100

    115

    130

    145

    160

    175

    190

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012GHG emissions (past)GHG project ions with exist ing measuresGHG project ions with addit ional measuresPassenger kilometers in cars (past)Passenger kilometers in cars (projected)Freight kilometers on road (past)Freight kilometers on road (projected)

    126 126120

    131143

    159

    181

    100

    115

    130

    145

    160

    175

    190

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    Inde

    x (1

    990=

    100)

    GHG emissions (past)GHG projections with existing measuresGHG projections with additional measuresPassenger kilometers in cars (past)Passenger kilometers in cars (projected)Freight kilometers on road (past)Freight kilometers on road (projected)

  • 27

    Average COAverage CO 22 emissions of new passenger cars emissions of new passenger cars were reduced by 12were reduced by 12 % from 1995 to 2004, % from 1995 to 2004,

    but progress is slowing downbut progress is slowing down

  • 28

    The growth of transport emissions could The growth of transport emissions could annihilate all efforts to curb total emissionsannihilate all efforts to curb total emissions

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

    Inde

    x (1

    990=

    100)

    -60 %

    Total GHG emissions(EU-27)

    -80 %Annual growth rate: +1.3 % / year

    Transport emissions(excl. aviation)

    Source: European Environment Agency

  • 29

    Carbon sinks will bring play a minor role towards Carbon sinks will bring play a minor role towards reaching the Kyoto target (reaching the Kyoto target (--0.9% from base0.9% from base--year)year)

    • Carbon sinks are projected to represent 39 Mt CO2 /year, in the EU-15, equivalent to about 1/10 of the target reduction from EU-15 base-year emissions

    • Forest management is the main activity elected under Art. 3.4• 16 MS (10 from EU-15) elected forest management • Additionally, 3 EU-15 MS elected cropland

    management• 2 EU-15 MS elected grazing-land management• 1 new MS elected revegetation

    Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe:�trends and projectionsContentsEuropean Environment AgencyLegal basis for reporting GHG emissions and national programmesEEA annual report on GHG inventories�2006 report on Kyoto assigned amountsEEA annual report on GHG trends and projections in EuropeEnergy-related emissions cause 80% of EU GHG emissionsKyoto targets in European countriesEU greenhouse gas emissions 1990-2005EU-27 emissions are projected to be 10% below 1990 with all measuresSlide Number 11EU-15 emission trends and projectionsThree EU15 MS project not to reach their targets (gaps smaller than in 2006; EU ETS not fully taken into account)GHG emissions of new Member States reduced 28% (1990-2005), but will increase (to 20% below 1990)All new EU MS project to reach their targetsKey EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce GHG emissionsThe EU emissions trading schemeProjected use of Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI) by 12 EU MS is about 2.5% of -8% target (107.5 Mt)EU-15 GHG emissions decreased (except transport) and projected to further decrease in most sectorsThank you for your attention! �See you at www.eea.europa.euAdditional slidesElectricity production in thermal power plants (+38 %) drove CO2 emissions from electricity/heat production �up by +6 % between 1990 and 2005 in the EU-15Share of renewable energy in EU-27 electricity consumption increased to 14% in 2005 �(2010 target: 21%, total 2020 RES target: 20%), many MS not on trackShare of electricity from combined heat �and power (CHP) in EU-27 electricity production �stabilised between 2000 and 2004 (10.5%)CO2 emissions from households decreased �by 1.7 % from 1990 to 2005, �the number of dwellings increased by 18 %EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport increased by 26 % between 1990 and 2005 and could be stabilised at current levelsAverage CO2 emissions of new passenger cars �were reduced by 12 % from 1995 to 2004, �but progress is slowing downThe growth of transport emissions could annihilate all efforts to curb total emissionsCarbon sinks will bring play a minor role towards reaching the Kyoto target (-0.9% from base-year)