Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia GCP Regional Carbon Budgets WS Beijing, China, 15-18 Nov. 2004 S....
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Transcript of Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia GCP Regional Carbon Budgets WS Beijing, China, 15-18 Nov. 2004 S....
Greenhouse Gas Balance of RussiaGreenhouse Gas Balance of Russia
GCP Regional Carbon Budgets WSGCP Regional Carbon Budgets WSBeijing, China, 15-18 Nov. 2004Beijing, China, 15-18 Nov. 2004
S. Nilsson,S. Nilsson,aa E.A. Vaganov, E.A. Vaganov,bb V.A. Rozhkov, V.A. Rozhkov,bb A. Shvidenko,A. Shvidenko,aa V. Stolbovoi, V. Stolbovoi,aa I. McCallum, I. McCallum,aa
M. Jonas,M. Jonas,aa and M. Obersteiner and M. Obersteineraa
((aa IIASA; IIASA; bb Russia) Russia)
1
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Full Carbon Accounting for Russia Full Carbon Accounting for Russia (1988–1992)(1988–1992)
5
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Some layers of the Some layers of the Integrated Land Integrated Land
Information SystemInformation System
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Terrestrial Full Corg Balance for Russia (1988–1992)
V
NPP: 4354 ( 118)
Con: 682 (41)
RO: 62 (14)
HR + Ant:4026 ( 131)
SRO: 9 (3)
306(156)
H 62(14)L 20
(7)
A -351-(176)
Dis: 143 (16)
P -38-(155)
Det: 3222 (93)
HR: 3201 (123)
Leak: 20 (7) URO: 50 (13)
Dep: 23 (7) Dep_H:3 (1)
Dep_P: 20 (7)
CSRO:12 (4)DOS: 70 (15)
Plab: -69 -(±155)
Pstab: 31 (±9)
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IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
CARBON FLUXESCARBON FLUXES
tC/ha
tC/ha
Vegetational Fluxes (1990)
Soil Fluxes (1990)
23
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Total NTotal N22O 1990O 1990
15
Total Emissions 0.64 Tg N2O
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
CHCH44 1990 1990
Big variation in the fossil emission in 1990: 5–16 Tg CH4 16
Total Emissions 48 Tg CH4
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
CO2
CH4
N2O
Combined GHG GWP Effect
Global Warming Potentials in CO2 Equivalents over 100 Year Time Horizon of Terrestrial Emissions and Fossil Fuels of Russia in 1990
Global Warming Potentials in Tg (CO2 equivalents) 1990
SectorSector COCO22 CHCH44 NN22OO TOTALTOTAL
IndustryIndustry 21382138 443443 1212 25932593
AgricultureAgriculture -411-411 9999 6262 -250-250
Natural EcosystemsNatural Ecosystems -877-877 460460 123123 -294-294
TOTALTOTAL 850850 10021002 197197 20492049
17Nature neutralizing ~20% of industrial emissions
-0.80 -0.55 -0.30 -0.05 0.20
Atmospheric Sink Strength [PgC yr-1]Terrestrial Sink Strength [PgC yr-1]
Russian Terrestrial FCA: 1988Russian Terrestrial FCA: 1988––19921992Average Annual Atmospheric Sink StrengthAverage Annual Atmospheric Sink Strength
-0.35 ± 0.10 (This Study, 2003)
-0.15 ± 0.12 (Nilsson et al., 2000)
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IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Conclusions for 1990 EstimatesConclusions for 1990 Estimates Modified systems view with respect to soils and Modified systems view with respect to soils and
inclusion of more detailed lateral and horizontal inclusion of more detailed lateral and horizontal fluxes resulted in doubling the net terrestrial sink fluxes resulted in doubling the net terrestrial sink capacity. Combination of process based methods capacity. Combination of process based methods with inventorieswith inventories
The assessment of the atmospheric/terrestrial The assessment of the atmospheric/terrestrial exchange is sensitive to small changes in surface exchange is sensitive to small changes in surface and sub-surface fluxesand sub-surface fluxes
The uncertainties are substantially reducedThe uncertainties are substantially reduced
Underlining the need for thorough and full Underlining the need for thorough and full accounting including all fluxesaccounting including all fluxes
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IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Top down ….. Bottom Up(cit. Daniel Muridiyarso)
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Up Scaling of the Terrestrial Sink Up Scaling of the Terrestrial Sink Strength Bottom-up Results for RussiaStrength Bottom-up Results for Russia
RegionRegion Vegetated Area Vegetated Area 101012 . 12 . mm22
RussiaRussia 1616
EurasiaEurasia 3636
Northern Extra-tropicsNorthern Extra-tropics 56 56
Inverse Modeling
Northern Extra-tropical Eurasia
-1.45 - 0.79
Up Scaled Bottom-up Values
Northern Extra-tropical Eurasia
-1.22 - 0.77
Valid for the Northern Extra-tropical Region
PgC•yr-1
9
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
ConclusionsConclusions Our full C account of Russia is closer to Our full C account of Russia is closer to
atmospheric inversion than existing C atmospheric inversion than existing C inventory + model techniquesinventory + model techniques
Combined top downCombined top down––bottom up based bottom up based approach has smaller uncertainties than approach has smaller uncertainties than pure top down approachpure top down approach
The combination of bottom up (FCA) with The combination of bottom up (FCA) with top down (atmospheric inversion) is the top down (atmospheric inversion) is the way to achieve ultimate verificationway to achieve ultimate verification
No “Missing SinkNo “Missing Sink””10
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Trends in Total Carbon (TgC) Trends in Total Carbon (TgC) Emissions Emissions
in Russia 1988in Russia 1988––20022002
-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100200300400500600700800
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Fossil
Total
Terrestrial
TgC
-351-689 -518
25
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Years
Are
a (m
il h
a)
SatellitemeasurementsOfficial data forprotected area
Vegetation fire in Russia in 1971-2002
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
INSECTS & DISEASES OUTBREAKS IN INSECTS & DISEASES OUTBREAKS IN RUSSIAN FORESTS (MILLION HA)RUSSIAN FORESTS (MILLION HA)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
DIS
OI
LG
NG
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Carbon D Fluxes (Tg C)Carbon D Fluxes (Tg C)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
Years
C F
luxe
s (T
g C
) Log
TF
Biotic
Abiotic
Total
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Summarized assessment of C fluxes due Summarized assessment of C fluxes due to disturbances for 1961-2002 (Tg C yrto disturbances for 1961-2002 (Tg C yr-1-1))
Logging and forest productsLogging and forest products 83.1 [56 to 99]83.1 [56 to 99] Veg Fire (direct emissions)Veg Fire (direct emissions) 69.7 [12 to 229]69.7 [12 to 229] Veg Fire (post D emissions)Veg Fire (post D emissions) 68.9 [62 to 81]68.9 [62 to 81] Veg Fire – totalVeg Fire – total 138.6 [81to 303]138.6 [81to 303] BioticBiotic 75.7 [62 to 89]75.7 [62 to 89] AbioticAbiotic 27.5 [16-36]27.5 [16-36] Overall totalOverall total 325 [262 to 479]325 [262 to 479]
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
FacitFacit
Bringing the biosphere into a carbon trading Bringing the biosphere into a carbon trading system adds substantial uncertainty and risksystem adds substantial uncertainty and risk– Lemmons marketLemmons market– Compliance in a stochastic environmentCompliance in a stochastic environment
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
Classification of D in boreal forestsClassification of D in boreal forests
ClimaticGeomorpho-
genicBiogenic Pyrogenic Anthropogenic
Weather
Climate Change
Denuadation
Cryogenic
Volcanogenic
Genus
Type
Zoogenic
Pathogenic
Landscape Fire
Site Degradation
•Pollution•Industrial Land Transformation
•Forest Management
IIASA Forestry Program IIASA Forestry Program
MODELLING OF CARBON FLUXES DUE MODELLING OF CARBON FLUXES DUE TO DISTURBANCE TO THE TO DISTURBANCE TO THE
ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERE
Total carbon flux caused by disturbance Total carbon flux caused by disturbance r r during during year year t1t1
TCFTCFr,t1r,t1 = DF = DFr,t1r,t1 + PDF + PDFr,t<t1r,t<t1,,
where where DFDFr,t1r,t1 is direct emission during year is direct emission during year t1, and t1, and
PDFPDFr,t<t1r,t<t1 is post disturbance biogenic is post disturbance biogenic fluxflux