Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

16
Greencape Capital Bridges Financial Services Matthew Ryland November 2011

Transcript of Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Page 1: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Greencape CapitalBridges Financial Services

Matthew Ryland

November 2011

Page 2: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Greencape Capital

•Business• Boutique funds management business with blue chip institutional backing

• 65% owned by principals David Pace, Matthew Ryland, Marc Hester and David Tonkin

• 35% owned by Challenger

•People• Experienced, with track record of top quartile performance

• Stable team – worked together for many years

• Alignment

•Process• Structured, flexible and repeatable

Page 3: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Research and portfolio construction

Ratings list

Broadcap portfolio

High Convictionportfolio

(15 - 40 stocks)

Investment universe

(ASX 100 + circle of competency mid & smalls)

(45 – 70 stocks, currently 55)

Page 4: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Greencape product offering on Bridges APL

Greencape Broadcap

Fund

Benchmark S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index

Number of securities Between 45 and 70 stocks

Cash range 0% - 15%

Maximum position 5% active

Tracking error 2% - 6%

Portfolio manager Matthew Ryland

Offshore Nil

Page 5: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Investment philosophy

•Markets are inefficient

•Sentiment and short-termism can mask fundamentals

•Qualitative factors are generally underappreciated in investmentdecisions

Page 6: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Investment process: completing the investment picture

Idea generation-ASX 100+-Circle of competency

Stock selection criteria-Shareholder stewardship-Business evaluation-Market milestones-Valuation

Stock ranking-Stock investment rating-Team review

Portfolio construction

Page 7: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Rated universe (top 100 circle of competency)

Page 8: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Quarterly fund performance – 30 September 2011

Performance Quarter (%)

1 year (%)

2 years (%) p.a

3 years (%) p.a.

5 years(%) p.a

Inception (%) p.a

Greencape Wholesale Broadcap Fund -11.51 -5.49 -1.11 4.66 4.32 5.10

Growth return -12.69 -14.57 -6.83 -0.49 -1.28 -0.49

Distribution return 1.18 9.08 5.72 5.15 5.60 5.58

S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index -11.65 -8.71 -4.14 -0.10 -0.71 -0.17

Outperformance (Net) 0.14 3.22 3.03 4.76 5.03 5.27

Returns are calculated after fees have been deducted, assuming reinvestment of distributions. No allowance is made for tax. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Page 9: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Case study: Amcor

•SS = 5 from 3• Alcan well priced acquisition, genuine consolidation

• Wc/sales 12% 7%

• Remuneration, options majority > $7.07 TSR = nil < 50% of comps

•BE = 3• ROIC improvement

• 80% of exposure is sustainable growth e.g. healthcare, Asia, Latin America

• V = 5• DCF = $8.45

• MM = 4• US PET vols bounce

• Synergy outlook better than expected

Page 10: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Amcor

Ken McKenzie

CEO

Bill Long – PET

Nigel Gerrard - Aust

Chris Roberts Chairman

Geoff Tomlinson

Resin

Tech Inc

Constanta

CFO

Rexam

-Key Account Manager

-IR

-Ex CEO

Huhtamaki

CFO

Cheveron, C- Stores Walmart, Coca-cola

Pepsi Inc

CustomerClondalkin

CEO, CFO

Visy Corp

Colourpac CEO, CFO

Page 11: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

China

•Key discretionary item sought after by the growing middle class consumer

Page 12: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

China

•Auto factories keep producing with slower sales

Page 13: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

China

•Chinese fixed asset investment is at an unsustainable level of 60% of GDP

•The components of Chinese investment below show historically high investment growth driven by real estate and manufacturing investment, both of which have seen production exceed sales recently.

Page 14: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

China

Page 15: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Outlook

•This quarter, share market sell off has seen further value emerge, earnings expectations look more realistic and $AUD weakened.

•New negative is credit crisis building from the European debt problem. Growing mistrust on banks lending to each other.

•China has some concerning real economy trends emerging.

•Portfolio heavily biased towards companies which have earnings growth driven by “self help”rather than macro economic dependence.

•Remain patient and continue to seek observable opportunities rather than predict a market bottom.

Page 16: Greencape Teleconference November 2011 retail final

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is current as at 30 June 2011 unless otherwise specified and is intended solely for licensed financial advisers. It must not be passed on to a retail client. It should be regarded as general information only rather than advice. It has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs.

Offers of interests in the Greencape Broadcap Fund and Greencape High Conviction Fund will be contained in the Product Disclosure Statement to be issued by Challenger Managed Investments Limited ABN 94 002 835 592 AFSL 234668 which will be available on our website www.challenger.com.au and must be considered before making a decision about the product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The information on the Funds may change after the date of this document. See the current PDS for current information.