Green Water Credits
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Transcript of Green Water Credits
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Green Water Credits
Use of quantitative tools to evaluate potentialGreen Water Credits options
Peter DroogersWilco Terink
Johannes HuninkSjef Kauffman
Godert van Lynden
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Blue and Green Water
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Example of potential benefits
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Introduction
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CONCEPTS BIOPHYSICAL ANALYSIS
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Tools and Information
Understand current water resources
Understand past water resources
Options for future- technical- socio-economic- policy oriented
TrendPast
Today
Future
• Observations• Remote Sensing• Analysis • Statistics
• Models
?
change
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Quantification GWC
Water Demand?
Water Consumption?
Water Supply?
Impact Changes?
Productive Use?
Soil Water Conservation impact?
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GWC Proof
• Observations in field (flows, erosion)– Precipitation dominant factor
• Large scale– experimental plots not possible
• Simulation model– experimental basin in PC– multiple options can be tested– various weather conditions (dry-wet)
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Tool Selection
Physical detaillowhigh
Spat
ial s
cale
field
system
basin
continentPodiumSTREAMSLURPWSBMSWATWEAPIQQMSWAPAquaCrop
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SWAT and WEAP
SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)
• Supply analysis
• Physical Based
• Impact soil-water-conservation measures
• Detailed farm management analysis
• Public domain• User friendly interface
WEAP(Water Evaluation And Planning systems)
• Demand analysis
• Conceptual based
• Benefit – Costs analysis
• Detailed upstream-downstream interactions
• Public domain• Very user friendly interface
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RIVER BASIN SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION
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Methodology
• Hydrological models as a tool to simulate the paths of water and soil movement
• Upstream-downstream interactions
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Methodology
• Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
• Physically based• Focus on water-erosion-land
management processes• Public domain• Large user-group worldwide• Successfully applied in many
other studies worldwide as well as in Kenya
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Data
• Data sets required:– Digital Elevation Model (DEM)– Climate– Land use and management– Soils– Streamflow– Reservoirs
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Data Sources
locally-sourced
non-RS
globalpublic-domain
RemoteSensing
Land Cover
StreamflowOperations
Climate
LAI
Soils
Topography
Socio-Economic
Groundwater
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Data
Elevation
Landuse
SoilsClimate
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Model Reliability
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Selection of GWC options
• 11 options explored• Bench terraces• Conservation tillage • Contour tillage• Fanya Juu terraces• Grass strips• Micro-catchments for planting fruit trees• Mulching• Rangelands• Ridging • Riverine protection• Trash lines
• Labor: intensive vs. extensive• Investment: low vs. high• Implementation on 20% of area ~ 100,000 farmers
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Results: Key Indicators
• Upstream– Crop transpiration– Soil evaporation– Groundwater recharge– Erosion
• Downstream– Inflow Masinga– Sediment load Masinga
• Climate– dry (2005)– wet (2006)
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Results: Key Indicators
Inflow Masi
nga
Sedim
ent inflow M
asinga
Crop tr
ansp
iration
Soil e
vaporation
Groundwate
r rech
arge
Erosio
n
Scenario Land use* Year MCM/y Mton/y mm/y** mm/y** mm/y*** ton/ha/y***dry 931 1.0 335 121 16 1.2wet 2508 4.2 308 140 128 7.9dry 1.1% -21% 0% -1% 3% -23%wet 1.9% -21% 0% 0% 2% -18%dry 0.1% -1% 1% -5% 1% -2%wet 0.1% -1% 1% -4% 0% -1%dry 1.1% -10% 0% -1% 7% -12%wet 0.8% -7% 0% 0% 3% -6%dry 0.4% -21% 1% -1% 4% -23%wet 1.3% -20% 1% 0% 2% -18%dry 0.6% -11% 0% -1% 3% -14%wet 0.6% -10% 0% 0% 1% -10%dry 0.6% -8% 0% -1% 2% -8%wet 0.6% -6% 0% 0% 1% -5%dry 0.4% -6% 3% -12% 3% -9%wet 0.5% -6% 2% -12% 2% -8%dry 0.1% -4% 0% -3% 1% -4%wet 0.0% -2% 0% -2% 0% -6%dry 1.4% -18% 0% -1% 23% -21%wet 1.0% -12% 0% -1% 10% -12%dry 0.0% -5% 0% -1% 0% -5%wet 0.0% -4% 0% 0% 0% -4%dry 0.6% -7% 0% -3% 3% -8%wet 0.6% -6% 1% -2% 1% -5%
*M=Maize, C=Coffee, T=Tea,A=Agricul tura l ASAL, R=Rangelands;
** Agricultura l areas ; *** Bas in-wide;
Baseline
Inflow Masi
nga
Sedim
ent inflow M
asinga
Crop tr
ansp
iration
Soil e
vaporation
Groundwate
r rech
arge
Erosio
n
Scenario Land use* Year MCM/y Mton/y mm/y** mm/y** mm/y*** ton/ha/y***dry 931 1.0 335 121 16 1.2wet 2508 4.2 308 140 128 7.9dry 1.1% -21% 0% -1% 3% -23%wet 1.9% -21% 0% 0% 2% -18%dry 0.1% -1% 1% -5% 1% -2%wet 0.1% -1% 1% -4% 0% -1%dry 1.1% -10% 0% -1% 7% -12%wet 0.8% -7% 0% 0% 3% -6%dry 0.4% -21% 1% -1% 4% -23%wet 1.3% -20% 1% 0% 2% -18%dry 0.6% -11% 0% -1% 3% -14%wet 0.6% -10% 0% 0% 1% -10%dry 0.6% -8% 0% -1% 2% -8%wet 0.6% -6% 0% 0% 1% -5%dry 0.4% -6% 3% -12% 3% -9%wet 0.5% -6% 2% -12% 2% -8%dry 0.1% -4% 0% -3% 1% -4%wet 0.0% -2% 0% -2% 0% -6%dry 1.4% -18% 0% -1% 23% -21%wet 1.0% -12% 0% -1% 10% -12%dry 0.0% -5% 0% -1% 0% -5%wet 0.0% -4% 0% 0% 0% -4%dry 0.6% -7% 0% -3% 3% -8%wet 0.6% -6% 1% -2% 1% -5%
*M=Maize, C=Coffee, T=Tea,A=Agricul tural ASAL, R=Rangelands;
** Agricul tural areas; *** Bas in-wide;
11 Trash l ines
Baseline
1 Bench terraces
2 Conservation tillage
3 Contour tillage
4 Fanya Juu terraces and variations
5 Grass strips
6 Micro-catchments for planting fruit trees
7 Mulching
8 Rangelands
9 Ridging
10 Riverine protection
MCT
M
M
MCT
MCT
MCT
MCT
MCT
AR
M
MCTA
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Results: Spatial
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OVERALL BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS
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WEAP Tool
• Impact of changes in water-soil dynamics on:– upstream
• rainfed improved production– downstream
• hydropower• domestic water supply• irrigation
• Benefit-cost analysis
• Integrations tool: WEAP
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WEAP Tool
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WEAP: Validation
Masinga Inflow
Masinga Outflow
Kamburu Outflow
Gitaru Inflow
Kindaruma Outflow
Kiambere Outflow
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Results: Reduction in water shortage
00_Base 01_Bench 02_ConsTill 03_ContTill 04_FanyaJuu 05_GrassStrips 06_MicroCatchments 07_Mulching 08_Rangelands 09_Ridging 10_Riverine 11_TrashLines
Unmet DemandAll Demand Sites (13), All months (12)
2005
Milli
on C
ubic
Met
er
0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5-3.0-3.5-4.0
-4.5-5.0-5.5-6.0-6.5-7.0
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Results: Increase in hydropower
00_Base 01_Bench 02_ConsTill 03_ContTill 04_FanyaJuu 05_GrassStrips 06_MicroCatchments 07_Mulching 08_Rangelands 09_Ridging 10_Riverine 11_TrashLines
Hydropow er GenerationAll Reservoirs (9), All months (12)
2005
Thou
sand
Gig
ajou
le
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
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Results: Increase in Benefits
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Results: Benefit-Cost Analysis
• 20% of area ~ 100,000 smallholders
Benefits Costs mUS$/y ha 01_Bench 9.9 92,865 02_ConsTill 1.0 52,766 03_ContTill 4.9 52,766 04_FanyaJuu 9.0 92,865 05_GrassStrips 5.3 92,865 06_MicroCatch 1.6 1,000 07_Mulching 5.1 92,865 08_Rangelands 0.8 136,916 09_Ridging 8.9 52,766 10_Riverine 2.0 10,000 11_TrashLines 3.4 92,865
Costs Construction Maintenance
ha US$/ha US$/ha /y mUS$/y 92,865 100 20 2.8 52,766 0 0 0.0 52,766 0 0 0.0 92,865 200 20 3.7 92,865 50 20 2.3 1,000 500 20 0.1
92,865 0 0 0.0 136,916 50 0 0.7 52,766 100 20 1.6 10,000 100 20 0.3 92,865 50 20 2.3
B/C
mUS$/y mUS$ 2.8 7.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.9 3.7 5.3 2.3 3.0 0.1 1.5 0.0 5.1 0.7 0.1 1.6 7.3 0.3 1.7 2.3 1.1
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DISCUSSIONS, CONCLUSIONS
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Conclusions
• GWC beneficial for:– upstream– downstream
• Analysis tools:– SWAT: (upstream) supply– WEAP: (downstream) demand
• Steps– Understand current situation– Explore options
• GWC– Biophysical component– Socio-economics– Institutional– Financial
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Discussion / conclusions
• Smaller focus area– current study: 1.8 million ha total; 0.5 million ha rainfed
• Definition of GWC options– effectiveness of implementation
• Convincingness of current approach– Rainfed farmers– Downstream beneficiaries
• Monitoring system
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THANK YOU