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  • Green growth?A consumption perspective on Swedish

    environmental impact trends using

    Mrten Berglund

    Grn tillvxt? Svensk miljpverkan ur ett

    konsumtionsperspektiv med tillmpning av

    UPTEC W11 021

    Examensarbete 30 hpJuni 2011

    inputoutput analysis

    inputoutput-analys

  • Abstract

    Green growth? A consumption perspective on Swedish environmentalimpact trends using inputoutput analysis

    Marten Berglund

    Consumption-based environmental impact trends for the Swedish economy havebeen generated and analysed in order to determine their levels compared to officialproduction-based data, and to determine whether or not the Swedish economy hasdecoupled growth in domestic final demand from worldwide environmental impact.Three energy resources (oil, coal and gas use, as well as their aggregate fossil fueluse) and seven emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO and NMVOC, as wellas the aggregate CO2 equivalents) were studied. An augmented single-regionalinputoutput model has been deployed, with world average energy and emissionintensities used for products produced abroad. A new method for updating inputoutput tables for years missing official inputoutput tables, was also developed.For each of the resources and the emissions, two time series were generated basedon two different revisions of Swedish national accounts data, one for the period19932003, the other for the period 20002005. The analysis uses a recently re-vised time series of environmental data from the Swedish environmental accounts,as well as recently published global environmental data from the IEA and fromthe EDGAR emissions database (all data from 2010 or later). An index decompo-sition analysis was also performed to detect the various components of the timeseries. For fossil fuels consumption-based data dont differ much from production-based data in total. For the greenhouse gases there is a clear increase (CO2eqemissions increase approximately 20 % from 19932005, mainly driven by an in-crease in CH4 emissions), resulting from increased emissions abroad due to theincreased demand for imported products. This suggests Sweden has not decoupledeconomic growth from increasing greenhouse gas emissions contrary to what theslightly decreasing official production-based UNFCCC data say. For the precursorgases (SO2, NOx, CO and NMVOC), emissions are generally decreasing, with theexception of SO2 and NOx which increase in the second time series. For all emis-sions studied, consumption-based data lie at much higher levels than the officialproduction-based UNFCCC data. However, further research is needed regardingthe resolution of the data of the energy use and the emissions generated abroadby the Swedish domestic final demand. Also, extension of the time series and ofthe environmental parameters to such things as material use is needed to find outwith more certainty to what extent Swedish growth has been sustainable or not.

    Keywords: Inputoutput analysis, emissions embodied in trade, environmentalKuznets curve, index decomposition analysis, green growth, IPAT equation, car-bon footprint, consumption-based accounting, fossil fuels, greenhouse gases, atmo-spheric pollution, Sweden.

    Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy,Uppsala University, Box 516, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden

    ISSN 1401-5765

    iii

  • Referat

    Gron tillvaxt? Svensk miljopaverkan ur ett konsumtionsperspektiv medtillampning av inputoutput-analys

    Marten Berglund

    I den har studien har konsumtionsbaserade tidsserier pa svensk fossilbranslean-vandning och pa svenska utslapp av luftfororeningar tagits fram i avsikt att jam-fora dessa med de officiella produktionsbaserade tidsserierna. Syftet har varit attavgora om det svenska samhallets paverkan pa resurser och miljo ur ett konsum-tionsperspektiv har minskat eller okat over tiden, och framforallt om en frikopplinghar skett mellan den svenska ekonomiska tillvaxten och den paverkan Sverige harpa miljon i Sverige och utomlands. Tre fossila branslen (olja, kol, gas samt aggre-gatet fossila branslen) och sju luftfororeningar (CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, COoch NMVOC samt aggregatet CO2-ekvivalenter) har analyserats. En enkelregion-al inputoutput-modell har tagits fram, utokad med globala medelintensiteter forden produktion som sker utanfor Sverige. En ny metod har ocksa utvecklats foratt generera inputoutput-tabeller for ar dar officiella sadana tabeller saknas. Forsamtliga energiresurser och luftfororeningar, upprattades tva stycken tidsserier,baserat pa tva olika revisioner av ekonomiska data fran nationalrakenskaperna.Den forsta tidsserien tacker aren 19932003, och den andra aren 20002005. Miljo-data togs fran nyligen reviderade tidsserier fran de svenska miljorakenskapernasamt fran IEA och den internationella luftfororeningsdatabasen EDGAR (alla da-ta reviderade 2010 eller senare). En komponentanalys utfordes ocksa, for att iden-tifiera olika bidragande komponenter i tidsserierna. Vad galler fossila branslen isin helhet, uppstar ingen markant skillnad mellan konsumtionsbaserade och pro-duktionsbaserade data. Vad galler vaxthusgaserna kan en klar okning urskiljas(20 procents okning av CO2-ekvivalenter mellan 19932005; CH4-utslappen hardar bidragit mest), vilket beror pa stigande utslapp utomlands orsakade av okadefterfragan pa importerade produkter. Detta antyder att den svenska tillvaxtenannu inte frikopplats fran okade utslapp av vaxthusgaser, vilket star i motsatstill den minskning i utslapp som de officiella produktionsbaserade siffrorna franUNFCCC-rapporteringen redovisar. For ovriga luftfororeningar (SO2, NOx, COoch NMVOC), sker i allmanhet en minskning, forutom for SO2 och NOx som okari den andra tidsserien. Samtliga luftfororeningar ligger vidare pa en betydligt hogreniva jamfort med UNFCCC-rapporteringen. Mer detaljerade studier behovs dockpa den energiforbrukning och de utslapp som svensk slutlig anvandning for medsig utomlands. Tidsserierna behover ocksa forlangas och fler miljovariabler somt.ex. materialanvandningen behover studeras for att kunna dra sakrare slutsatserkring i vilken utstrackning som den svenska tillvaxten har varit hallbar eller ej.

    Nyckelord : Inputoutput-analys, inbaddade utslapp, miljo-Kuznetskurvan,komponentanalys, gron tillvaxt, IPAT, kolavtryck, konsumtionsbaserad bokforing,fossila branslen, vaxthusgaser, luftfororeningar, Sverige.

    Globala energisystem, Institutionen for fysik och astronomi, Uppsala universitet,Box 516, 751 20 Uppsala

    ISSN 1401-5765

    iv

  • Preface

    This study is the result of a degree project within the Aquatic and Environ-mental Engineering Programme at Uppsala University. It has been performed atthe Global Energy Systems group at the Department of Physics and Astronomy.Supervisor has been Kristofer Jakobsson, and reviewer has been professor KjellAleklett, both at the Global Energy Systems group.

    At first Id like to thank my professor Kjell Aleklett who approved my proposal fordoing a study in the field of economic growth versus the environment within hisgroup. The next thanks goes of course to my supervisor Kristofer Jakobsson, whojust happened to possess a vast number of books in the subject of inputoutputanalysis which again happened to be the main method used in this field thanksfor all interesting discussions and for your support, patience and all encouragingwords during the project. Id also like to thank Mikael Hook in the group forinteresting discussions and help.

    People outside the group who need special mention, are Anders Wadeskog,Ann-Marie Brathen and Ida Bjork at the environmental accounts and nationalaccounts units of Statistics Sweden, who helped me a lot with the details of theinputoutput tables. Glen Peters at CICERO in Oslo gave me good introduc-ing articles in the field of environmental inputoutput analysis and Pontus vonBromssen at Skandia Liv was helpful in checking some of the maths. Id also liketo direct a special thanks to the librarians at the university library, who purchasedbooks and databases Ive asked for, and for being generally helpful.

    Finally, Id like to thank my family and all friends who have been supporting mewith encouraging talks and interesting discussions without which all my thoughtsabout this subject wouldnt have been much.

    Marten Berglund

    Uppsala, June 2011

    CopyrightMarten Berglund and Global Energy Systems, Department of Physicsand Astronomy, Uppsala University.

    UPTEC W11 021, ISSN 1401-5765

    Printed at the Department of Earth Sciences, Geotryckeriet, Uppsala university,Uppsala, 2011.

    v

  • Popularvetenskaplig sammanfattning

    I den har rapporten behandlas fragan om det ar mojligt att leva i ett samhallemed standig ekonomisk tillvaxt1 utan att samtidigt tara pa naturresurser och miljopa ett ohallbart satt. Manga menar att det ar dagens konsumtionssamhalle somar grundorsaken till vara miljoproblem, och att vi ar tvungna att sla in pa enannan vag om vi ska kunna radda var planet fran utarmade resurser och okadetemperaturer.

    En del menar a andra sidan att det ar den ekonomiska tillvaxten som gor att vihar rad att gora nagot at miljoproblemen, och som skapar mojlighet att utvecklanya energitekniker och renare industrier. En del statistik over landers ekonomiskautveckling och deras miljotillstand, visar till och med hur miljoproblemen i ett landvisserligen till att borja med forvarras med stigande BNP, men efter en viss nivatenderar dessa miljoproblem att avta ju hogre landets BNP blir. Detta samband,som kan beskrivas med en kurva som tar formen av ett uppochnedvant U, brukarkallas for miljo-Kuznetskurvan.

    Detta resonemang gar dock att problematisera ytterligare. Uppstar denna miljo-Kuznetskurva aven nar man tar hansyn till den miljopaverkan som ett land orsakarutomlands genom sin import? Kanske ar det sa att var