Greater Memphis MSA Market Overview

LAST UPDATED: July 2, 2020

• The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy in a recession on Monday, June 8. Starting in February, this recession ends a decade long period of economic expansion and the longest in recorded US history.

• This edition of the Greater Memphis MSA Market Overview highlights select labor market indicators that are published on a monthly and a weekly schedule.

• The higher frequency weekly indicators, noted on the following page, serve as leading indicators and could signal worsening or better employment outcomes for the region against the monthly reports.

Greater Memphis Market Overview –COVID-19 Edition

Indicators to Watch – Greater Memphis

Unemployment Rate, Memphis MSA

Seasonally Adjusted

Initial Unemployment Claims, New Claims Filed

Over the Month Job Change Weekly Job Postings

Monthly Weekly Monthly Weekly

May 2020

11.2%-2.2% MoM

Week Ending June 27

6,310+6.4% WoW

April/May 2020

+14,700+2.5% MoM-8.6% YoY

June 27

4,793+19.05% WoW

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Burning Glass Technologies Labor Insight

Greater Memphis MSA Unemployment Rate

LAST UPDATED: July 2, 2020

Memphis, 11.2

United States, 13.3

United States, 11.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-1

9Ap

r-19

May-1

9Jun

-19Jul

-19Au

g-19

Sep-19

Oct-1

9No

v-19

Dec-1

9

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-2

0Ap

r-20

May-2

0Jun

-20

Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted

Unemployment RateJanuary 2019 to YTD 2020, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the St. Louis Federal Reserve

Unemployment Rate

The Greater Memphis MSA has held competitive unemployment rates against the State of Tennessee and the Nation since the onset of the pandemic.

May 2020, the Greater Memphis MSA held an unemployment rate of 11.2%. Lower than both the State of Tennessee and the Nation at 11.3 and 13.3, respectively.

The June 2020 rate for the United States fell to 11.1%. The next release for metropolitan estimates will be July 29, 2020.

United StatesTennesseeMemphis MSA

Unemployment Rate Greater Memphis Counties

Fayette County, TN, 8.2

Tipton County, TN, 8.6

De Soto County, MS, 7.9

Tunica County, MS, 23.5

Tate County, MS, 9.1

Marshall County, MS, 8.3

Crittenden County, AR, 12.5

Shelby County, TN, 11.6

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-1

9Ap

r-19

May-1

9Jun

-19Jul

-19Au

g-19

Sep-19

Oct-1

9No

v-19

Dec-1

9Jan

-20Feb

-20

Mar-2

0Ap

r-20

May-2

0

Unemployment RateJanuary 2019 to YTD 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the St. Louis Federal Reserve

The unemployment rate for counties that comprise the metro area vary widely.

Tunica County, MS holds the highest May 2020 rate at 23.5%. De Soto County, MS holds the lowest May 2020 unemployment rate at 7.9%.

The unemployment rate for Shelby County in May 2020 was 11.6%

Greater Memphis MSA Initial and Continued Unemployment Claims

LAST UPDATED: July 2, 2020

236 622 483 418 436 442 363 355 369 357 543

4,702

11,902

13,521

9,52510,147

7,755 7,947

6,8906,349 6,209 6,076 6,288 5,706 5,929

6310

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Greater Memphis Counties

Average Weekly Claims Weeks Ending Jan 4 – March 7 408

Average Weekly Claims Weeks Ending March 14 – June 27: 7,237

April 4March 7Feb 1Jan 4

Source Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Greater Memphis portion of TN includes the counties of Shelby, Fayette, Tipton, and Lauderdale

Initial Claims

Weeks Ending Jan 4, 2020 to June 27, 2020

115,800New Unemployment Insurance Claims in Greater Memphis since the week ending March 14, 2020

May 2 June 6 June 27

3,141

55,91457,476

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

03/14

/2020

03/21

/2020

03/28

/2020

04/04

/2020

04/11/

2020

04/18

/2020

04/25

/2020

05/02

/2020

05/09

/2020

05/16

/2020

05/23

/2020

05/30

/2020

06/06

/2020

06/13

/2020

06/20

/2020

06/27

/2020

Continued Claims: Unemployment Insurance ClaimsGreater Memphis, TN Counties

Continued ClaimsMarch 14 to YTD 2020Continued Claims

A steady increase in continued unemployment claims indicates a workforce not yet re-entering the labor market.

Counties within the Tennessee portion of Greater Memphis saw a 2.8% increase in continued claims week-over-week June 20 to June 27th.

Source Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Greater Memphis portion of TN includes the counties of Shelby, Fayette, Tipton, and Lauderdale

Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment.

Greater Memphis MSA Jobs and Employment

LAST UPDATED: July 2, 2020

Over the Month Job ChangeNon-Farm Payroll Employment, Greater Memphis MSA

580

600

620

640

66020

07

2008

2009 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Non-Farm Payroll (Jobs)January 2007 to May 2020, Seasonally Adjusted

Jobs (‘000s)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the St. Louis Federal Reserve Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions

Great RecessionNon-farm payrolls (jobs) in the Memphis metropolitan area increased by nearly 15,000 in May 2020, a month-over-month increase of approximately 2.5%.

Although employment is still well below pre-pandemic levels, the May2020 jobs report provides a hopeful picture that labor market activity is returning.

Over the Month Job Change by Industry SectorNon-Farm Payroll Employment, Greater Memphis MSA

Jobs (‘000s)

-1.3

0.7

-3.8

0.3

-10.7

0.7

-0.2

0.1

-7.1

1.7

-7.4

1.9

-3.6

0.3

-3.3

0.1

-2.6

0.1

-30.3

8.8

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

April May

Construction

Other Services

Trade/Transportation

Information

Education and Health

Professional/Business Services

Manufacturing

Government

Financial Activites

Leisure and Hospitality

With dramatic losses in employment in April, May 2020 posted welcome relief to the

region’s labor market activity.

Shown above, Leisure and Hospitality posted the strongest gains in May, adding 8,800 jobs, nearly 30% of jobs lost in April. This is followed

by Professional and Business Services and Education and Health increasing 1,900 and

1,700, respectively.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the St. Louis Federal Reserve

Greater Memphis MSA Employer Demand

LAST UPDATED: July 2, 2020

4,228

2,016

4,793

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,0001/4

/20

1/11/2

0

1/18/

20

1/25/

20

2/1/2

0

2/8/

20

2/15

/20

2/22

/20

2/29

/20

3/7/

20

3/14

/20

3/21

/20

3/28

/20

4/4/

20

4/11/

20

4/18

/20

4/25

/20

5/2/

20

5/9/

20

5/16

/20

5/23

/20

5/30

/20

6/6/

20

6/13

/20

6/20

/20

6/27

/20

Job Posting ActivityOnline Job Postings within the Greater Memphis MSA

Online Job Postings

52% reduction in online job postings March 14 to

May 2, 2020

138% acceleration in online job postings May 2 to

June 27, 2020

Source: Burning Glass Technologies

+19.05% June 20 to June 27, 2020

Job Posting ActivityTop 20 In-Demand Occupations, last 60 days

Source: Burning Glass Technologies

902634

537453

380375370

340337

311301

294285283

272270

261238

214200

Laborer / Warehouse WorkerRetail Sales Associate (General)

Tractor-Trailer Truck Driver (General)Building and General Maintenance Technician

Customer Service Representative (General)Food Service Team Member

Registered NurseJanitor / Cleaner

Restaurant / Food Service ManagerRestaurant / Food Service Supervisor

Retail Store ManagerSales Representative

Maid / Housekeeping StaffForklift / Pallet Jack Operator

Security OfficerProduction Worker

CookWaiter / Waitress

Licensed Practical / Vocational NurseOffice / Administrative Assistant

Job Posting ActivityTop 20 Employers posting, last 60 days

Source: Burning Glass Technologies

563428

421206

196125124122121

115100

9190

8686

7977

737372

Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcarecbre

FedExBaptist Memorial Health Care Corporation

Carrols CorporationLowe's Companies, Inc

Mississippi Baptist Health SystemsAnthem Blue Cross

St. Jude Children's Research HospitalServiceMaster

University of TennesseeBurger King

Tenet Health SystemShelby County Schools

Allied UniversalDollar General

Universal Health Services, Inc.Inspire Brands

AmazonSprouts Farmers Markets

Insights

• The Greater Memphis MSA has held competitive unemployment rates against the State of Tennessee and the Nation since the onset of the pandemic. For May 2020, the Greater Memphis MSA held an unemployment rate of 11.2%. This is lower than both the State of Tennessee and the Nation at 11.3 and 13.3, respectively. However, Shelby County held a higher May 2020 rate of 11.6%.

• Both Initial and Continued Unemployment Insurance Claims increased week-over-week from June 20 to June 27th. This increase could be seen with the release of June 2020 numbers and could reflect headwinds being realized in tandem with the continued increases in COVID-19 cases.

• Non-farm payrolls (jobs) in the Memphis metropolitan area increased by nearly 15,000 in May 2020, a month-over-month increase of approximately 2.5%. Although employment is still well below pre-pandemic levels, the May 2020 jobs report provides a hopeful picture that labor market activity is returning.

• Leisure and Hospitality posted the strongest gains in May, adding 8,800 jobs, nearly 30% of jobs lost in April. Other notable increases within industry sectors included Professional and Business Services and Education and Health increasing 1,900 and 1,700, respectively.

• Online job postings, a proxy for employer demand, have accelerated rapidly. Since May 2, 2020 online job postings have increased 138%, 19.05% June 20 to June 27, 2020. While indicative of accelerated demand, opportunities to shift labor market displacement exists - leveraging skills of displaced workers for in-demand occupations within new industries.