Great Decisions 2009:

The US and Rising Powers

ByDr. Alethia H. Cook

Brought to you by the World Affairs Council of Eastern North Carolina

Pivotal States

In the late 1990s, the idea of “pivotal states” in world politics was popularized by a book by Robert Chase, Emily Hill, and Paul Kennedy (eds)

Their basic argument at that time was that the US had to reconceptualize American foreign policy in light of the end of the Cold War and changing relative importance of states within the international system

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First… My process began with identification of the key

characteristics of states that allow them to impact world affairs into the future

Some states may be very powerful in one area (military, for instance) but weak in others (economics, development, etc.)

Importance was placed on a state’s ability to project power with the international instrument, rather than merely protect itself

Clearly, there is some bias involved in selecting the instruments of power and their relative importance, but this provides an interesting lens through which to view the states

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Variables

Instruments of Power in relative order of importance (perhaps)

– Economic

– Military

– Nuclear Weapons State

– Political

Facilitators or hindrances

– Development

– Dilemmas

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INSTRUMENTS OF POWER

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Economic During the Cold War, military power was the predominant

concern, with economic factors playing a supporting role– Money bought better military equipment– Political influence was tied to development money and military

aid

Today, economics are probably more important than military factors– 1991 Gulf War and current War in Iraq have major economic (i.e.

access to oil) elements– Current GWOT could also be tied to the economic impact of 9/11

and subsequent global recession

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Goldman Sachs Global Economy Projection to 2050

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Military

Military factors are still important, however

Most states in the international system lack the ability to impose their will—even on their immediate neighbors

The ability to project military power globally is held by only a few states

Regional power projection is also an important factor

– Can promise protection to neighbors

– Can punish recalcitrant states to assure regional blocs hold

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Wikipedia’s Comparison of Active Duty Troop Numbers

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Military Spending, 2008$ Billions

US expenditures=$711 billion11

Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear weapons are arguably a subset of the military instrument, but one that requires special attention

Nothing conveys power in the international system more effectively than a state’s command of the nuclear option

Several states are today using the threat of developing a nuclear weapon to manipulate others and gain favors from the international system

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Political

This overlaps considerably with economics and military

It includes a country’s ability to use carrots and sticks to influence the behavior of others

It is also manifest in the country’s formation and participation in coalitions and alliances with others

A state that can influence others politically and impact their behavior has significant power

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FACILITATORS AND HINDRANCES

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Development

Political, economic and social development are required of a state if it aspires to great power status

Development is difficult to measure, but is generally a scale from least to most developed

It is recognized that a country could conceivably follow a different path than that which has been taken by the current powers but still achieve higher status

Typically, however, powerful states have followed similar paths to development

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Dilemmas Countries experience a variety of challenges

domestically that may impact their ability to become world powers

Examples include:

– Poverty

– Lack of education

– Huge populations or increases in population

– Environmental or negative weather patterns

– Civil conflict

Another country’s dilemmas could either benefit or hurt the US as countries vie for power

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RISING POWERS

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China Economically, few can compete with the Chinese powerhouse

– Economic growth rates of about 9.7% since the 1970s– Decreasing poverty and increasing education– Trade surpluses with most countries

Political– One of the few reasons that China will allow a trade deficit is to

build political ties (i.e. influence) with neighbors

Military—second largest in manpower and funding—a nuclear power since 1964

Development—impressive, but could become a dilemma– Fourth in the world based on the World Bank’s World Development

Indicators

Dilemmas– Development has been uneven and many still live in significant

poverty with little education and access to healthcare– Poverty rate reduction has fallen since the 1990s, as the problems

become more intractable– Government has declared it will accept massive pollution in the

interest of continued economic development—causing degradation of rural natural resource base and the urban environment

– Enormous and growing population

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India In spite of impressive recent economic

growth (8% per year), 33.5% of India’s population lived on less than $1 per day according to recent World Bank reports

– Another estimate is that 77% of Indians live on less than ½ of a dollar a day

Politically, India has become an international darling, with the US declaring her to be a strategic partner

– It is also a vibrant democracy

India has a large and well-equipped military with some capacity for power projection and got nukes in 1998

While political development is strong, economic development has been extremely uneven

– World Bank puts India at 12th in the world for World Development Indicators

India’s population has seen some increase in their well-being, however, this has increased their demands on government for improvement in healthcare, employment, education, and infrastructure

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Iran The Iranian economy faces significant challenges

including high inflation, unemployment, subsidies, major hurdles to private sector development, and high levels of poverty

– Subsidies exaggerate the purchasing power of Iranians

– Many Iranians are angry that the promised economic growth has not been realized by Ahmadinejad

Iran’s military is among the largest and most advanced in the region

There are international concerns it is developing nuclear weapons, which has resulted in sanctions that have hurt the country economically

Politically, Iran’s current administration has alienated many in the world—however it still exerts significant regional influence

– Nature of the government makes its actions fairly unpredictable

Requires significant investment in its infrastructure to improve its economic performance

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The United States and Iran:

Policy Challenges and Opportunities

Alethia H. Cook and Jalil Roshandel

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Japan Almost did not make the list Economically, it is and has been a powerhouse

for a long time—but has suffered some recent setbacks with annual growth rate dropping from 4% in the 1990s to about 1.7% today

However, its military and political influence have been on the rise recently

US security cooperation with Japan has increased of late and has helped to stabilize the region

– It is a large contributor to international peacekeeping efforts

– Japan is a strong supporter of the US GWOT—but US preoccupation with it is sometimes a challenge

– US bases in the country are also a constant source of disagreement

Second (behind the US) in the World Bank’s World Development Indicators rankings

Dilemmas include Japan’s perpetual lack of natural resources, high dependence on international system for oil and foodstuffs (55%)

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Pakistan Has had an economic crisis due to high

international prices, internal strife, and a lack of policy action to address the problems

Has poor social services, in spite of recent improvements in education and health

The country has a strong military and nuclear weapons

– Politically, the military plays a significant role in the governance of the country

– The military is large and has a huge impact on the economy and society

US sees Pakistan as a pivotal ally in the GWOT

In critical need of infrastructure improvement

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Russia Since 2000, Russia’s economy has been growing at an

impressive rate of about 6.5% per year Politically, the country has achieved some stability

under the leadership of Putin– However, governance is highly centralized and

personalized in Putin– Has had several international diplomatic conflicts,

however, especially with the US– Looks like a “resurgent” Russia with strong anti-American

sentiments

Militarily, the country is in need of major investments (which 2008 saw indications were forthcoming) to modernize its military

– This year’s incursion into Georgia demonstrates it still has power projection capabilities

A nuclear power 11th in World Bank’s World Development Index Dilemmas include weak property rights enforcement,

inadequate competition, problems in public governance, and high dependence on oil and gas production

– Inflation is also high (11.9% in 2007) in the country– Organized crime and corruption are rampant

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Rogue Bloc

Hugo Chavez has been courting leaders from rogue states to join in his alliance against imperialism

Venezuela’s oil wealth has allowed him to try and expand his country’s influence

2007 world tour specifically targeted states at odds with the US

He also signed arms and energy deals along the way

While this may not be THE bloc that challenges us, the US should consider such alliances as the threat posed could exceed the sum of the parts

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•Economic

•Military

•Nuclear

•Political

•Development

•Dilemmas

US Policy Stoplight Chart

China India Iran Japan Pakistan Russia Rogue Bloc

Economic

Military

Nuclear weapons

Political

Development

Dilemmas

Based on US policy interests, a ranking from negative to positive was assigned

Negative characteristic

Neutral characteristic

Positive characteristic26