Great Debates in IR theory

• 1920s-Realists vs. Idealists-

basic assumptions, nature of human beings

• 1950s-Traditionalists vs. behavioralists-

methodology

Laws

• Patterns

• Regulatiries of IR or other physical phenomena

• How to explain laws?

Theory building

• Hypothesis generation

• If X then Y

• Independent –dependent variable

• Causal relationship

• Correlations

• Spurious relationship

Science as method

• Explain

• Predict

• Induction vs deduction

• Inductive fallacy

Theory

• Select facts/interpret facts

• To facilitate explanation

• Prediction

• Intellectual construct

• Composed of several sets of interrelated propositions to interpret and explain facts

Scientific approach

• What is scientific?

• accumulation of knowledge

• Systematic strategy-essential

• Aim is to control unsupported speculation

• Science is a matter of methods

Popperism-Karl Popper

• Testability

• Falsification

• Tentativeness

• Importance of methods over results

Popper

• Believe there is not such thing as absolute certainty

• But we can still falsify wrong conjectures

• Theoretical and methodological diversity

• Key strengths in social sciences

Traditional approach

• Participant observation

• Diplomatic history

• International law/treaties

• Memoirs

• Case studies

Behavioral/positivist approach

• Aggregate data

• Quantitative analysis

• Application of natural science methods to social sciences

• Mathematical modeling

• Simulation

Paradigms

• Sets of dominant theories at given periods

• Paradigmatic change- when a shift in dominant paradigm occurs, there is a scientific revolution (Kuhn)

• Newtonian physics vs Quantum physics

• Multiple Paradigms possible to explain same phenomena?

IR propositions

• When there is a balance of power, the likelihood of war increases

• When there is a preponderance of power, the likelihood of war increases

• The stronger a state’s military capabilities, the less the likelihood of an attack against that state

• Democracies are less likely to fight with each other

Rosenau-Thinking Theory thoroughly

• Avoid treating the task of formulating an appropriate definition of theory

• Empirical vs normative theory• Assume underlying order for all human behaviour• Sacrifice detailed description for general patterns• Accept ambiguity• Be ready to be proven wrong