Grays Harbor County’s Shoreline Master Program...GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY GRANT NO. 1400448 C U M U L A...

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G RAYS H ARBOR C OUNTY G RANT N O . 1400448 C UMULATIVE I MPACTS A NALYSIS Grays Harbor County’s Shoreline Master Program Prepared for: Prepared by: February 2017 The Watershed Company Reference Number: 130726 Grays Harbor County 100 West Broadway Montesano, WA 98563 STRATEGY | ANALYSIS | COMMUNICATIONS 2025 First Avenue, Suite 800 Seattle WA 98121 This report was funded in part through a grant from the Washington Department of Ecology.

Transcript of Grays Harbor County’s Shoreline Master Program...GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY GRANT NO. 1400448 C U M U L A...

  • GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY GRANT NO . 1400448

    C U M U L A T I V E I M P A C T S A N A L Y S I S

    Grays Harbor County’s Shoreline Master Program

    Prepared for:

    Prepared by:

    February 2017

    The Watershed Company

    Reference Number:

    130726

    Grays Harbor County

    100 West Broadway

    Montesano, WA 98563

    STRATEGY | ANALYSIS | COMMUNICATIONS

    2025 First Avenue, Suite 800

    Seattle WA 98121

    This report was funded in part

    through a grant from the

    Washington Department of Ecology.

    http://www.co.grays-harbor.wa.us/GHCoHazardsMitigation/index.html

  • Cite this document as:

    The Watershed Company and Berk. February 2017. Cumulative Impacts Analysis

    of Grays Harbor County’s Shoreline Master Program. Prepared for Grays Harbor

    County, Montesano, WA.

  • The Watershed Company and BERK February 2017

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    TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

    Page #

    1 Introduction ......................................................... 1

    1.1 Background ....................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Document Approach and Overview ................................................................. 3

    2 Summary of Existing Conditions ...................... 4

    2.1 Queets-Quinault (WRIA 21) .............................................................................. 5

    2.1.1 Environment .......................................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 Land Use ............................................................................................................... 6

    2.2 Chehalis (WRIA 22/23) ...................................................................................... 7

    2.2.1 Environment .......................................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 Land Use ............................................................................................................. 12

    2.3 Willapa (WRIA 24) ........................................................................................... 12

    2.3.1 Environment ........................................................................................................ 13 2.3.2 Land Use ............................................................................................................. 13

    2.4 Marine and Estuarine Shorelines ................................................................... 13

    2.4.1 Environment ........................................................................................................ 13 2.4.2 Land Use ............................................................................................................. 15

    3 Future Development ......................................... 15

    3.1 Analysis of Development Trends ................................................................... 16

    3.1.1 Existing Land Use .............................................................................................. 16 3.1.2 Growth and Permit History ................................................................................ 17

    3.2 Analysis of Vacant Lands ............................................................................... 18 3.3 Summary of Reasonably Foreseeable Future Development ........................ 20

    3.3.1 Queets-Quinault (WRIA 21) ............................................................................... 20 3.3.2 Chehalis (WRIA 22/23) ....................................................................................... 20 3.3.3 Willapa (WRIA 24) ............................................................................................... 20 3.3.4 Marine and Estuarine Shorelines...................................................................... 21

    4 Application of the SMP ..................................... 21

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    4.1 Shoreline Environment Designations ............................................................ 22

    4.1.1 Potential Use Conflicts ...................................................................................... 25

    4.2 General Shoreline Regulations ...................................................................... 25

    4.2.1 Shoreline ecological functions ......................................................................... 25 4.2.2 Flood hazard reduction ...................................................................................... 26 4.2.3 Water quality, stormwater, and nonpoint pollution ........................................ 26 4.2.4 Other general regulations .................................................................................. 27

    4.3 Shoreline Uses ................................................................................................ 27

    4.3.1 Agriculture .......................................................................................................... 27 4.3.2 Aquaculture ......................................................................................................... 28 4.3.3 Marinas and boating facilities ........................................................................... 30 4.3.4 Commercial development .................................................................................. 31 4.3.5 Forest practices .................................................................................................. 32 4.3.6 Industrial development ...................................................................................... 33 4.3.7 Instream structural development...................................................................... 34 4.3.8 Mining .................................................................................................................. 35 4.3.9 Recreational development ................................................................................. 36 4.3.10 Residential development ............................................................................... 37 4.3.11 Transportation development ........................................................................ 39 4.3.12 Utilities ............................................................................................................ 40

    4.4 Shoreline Modifications .................................................................................. 41

    4.4.1 Beach and dune management .......................................................................... 41 4.4.2 Breakwaters, jetties, groins, and weirs ............................................................ 42 4.4.3 Dredging and dredge material disposal ........................................................... 43 4.4.4 Fill ........................................................................................................................ 44 4.4.5 Piers and docks .................................................................................................. 45 4.4.6 Shoreline habitat and natural system enhancement projects ....................... 46 4.4.7 Shoreline stabilization ....................................................................................... 47

    4.5 Coastal Ocean Use and Modification Provisions.......................................... 49

    4.5.1 General provisions ............................................................................................. 49 4.5.2 Oil and gas uses ................................................................................................. 50 4.5.3 Ocean mining development .............................................................................. 50 4.5.4 Ocean energy development .............................................................................. 51 4.5.5 Ocean disposal development ............................................................................ 52 4.5.6 Ocean transportation ......................................................................................... 53 4.5.7 Ocean research................................................................................................... 54 4.5.8 Ocean salvage .................................................................................................... 55

    4.6 Shoreline Restoration Plan ............................................................................ 56

    5 Effects of Other Regulatory Programs ........... 58

    5.1 County Regulations and Programs ............................................................... 58

    5.1.1 Grays Harbor County Comprehensive Plan and County Code ..................... 58

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    5.2 Tribal Regulations ........................................................................................... 58

    5.2.1 Quinault Indian Nation ....................................................................................... 58

    5.3 State Agencies/Regulations ........................................................................... 59

    5.3.1 Washington Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) ................................ 59 5.3.2 Washington Department of Ecology ................................................................ 59 5.3.3 Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife .................................................. 59 5.3.4 Ocean Resources Management Act ................................................................. 59 5.3.5 Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission – Seashore Conservation Area 60 5.3.6 State Forest Practices Act ................................................................................. 61 5.3.7 Surface Mining Act ............................................................................................. 61

    5.4 Federal Agencies/Regulations ....................................................................... 61

    5.4.1 Clean Water Act .................................................................................................. 61 5.4.2 Rivers and Harbors Act, Section 10 ................................................................. 62 5.4.3 Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) .......................................................... 62 5.4.4 Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) ........................................................... 62 5.4.5 Dredged Material Management Program ......................................................... 63

    6 Net Effect on Ecological Functions ................. 63 7 References ........................................................ 65

    L I S T O F TA B L E S Table 2-1. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Queets River AU 5 Table 2-2. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Quinault River AU6 Table 2-3. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Moclips/Copalis River AU

    ................................................................................................................ 6 Table 2-4. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Chehalis River AU8 Table 2-5. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Satsop River AU . 9 Table 2-6. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Wynoochee River AU

    ................................................................................................................ 9 Table 2-7. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Cloquallum and Mox

    Chehalis AU .......................................................................................... 10 Table 2-8. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Humptulips River AU

    .............................................................................................................. 10 Table 2-9. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Hoquiam River AU11 Table 2-10. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Wishkah River AU

    .............................................................................................................. 11 Table 2-11. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the South Grays Harbor

    Tributaries AU ....................................................................................... 12 Table 2-12. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the North River AU 13

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    Table 2-13. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Grays Harbor Estuary AU ......................................................................................................... 14

    Table 2-14. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Pacific Coast AU14 Table 3-1. Shoreline Land Use Pattern in Grays Harbor County. ............................ 16 Table 3-2. Vacant Land by Zoning District and Shoreline Environment Designation.18 Table 3-3. Vacant Industrial Lands by Shoreline Environment Designation. ........... 20 Table 4-1. Summary of potential impacts from agriculture. ..................................... 28 Table 4-2. Summary of key agriculture regulations that protect ecological functions.28 Table 4-3. Summary of potential impacts from aquaculture. ................................... 29 Table 4-4. Summary of key aquaculture regulations that protect ecological functions.29 Table 4-5. Summary of potential impacts from marinas and boating facilities. ........ 30 Table 4-6. Summary of key marinas and boating facilities regulations that protect ecological

    functions. ............................................................................................... 30 Table 4-7. Summary of potential impacts from commercial development. .............. 31 Table 4-8. Summary of key commercial development regulations that protect ecological

    functions. ............................................................................................... 31 Table 4-9. Summary of potential impacts from forest practices. .............................. 32 Table 4-10. Summary of key forest practices regulations that protect ecological functions.

    .............................................................................................................. 33 Table 4-11. Summary of potential impacts from industrial development. .................. 34 Table 4-12. Summary of key industrial development regulations that protect ecological

    functions. ............................................................................................... 34 Table 4-13. Summary of potential impacts from instream structures......................... 35 Table 4-14. Summary of key instream structural development regulations that protect

    ecological functions. .............................................................................. 35 Table 4-15. Summary of potential impacts from mining. ........................................... 35 Table 4-16. Summary of key mining regulations that protect ecological functions. ... 36 Table 4-17. Summary of potential impacts from recreational development. .............. 37 Table 4-18. Summary of key recreational development regulations that protect ecological

    functions. ............................................................................................... 37 Table 4-19. Summary of potential impacts from residential development. ................ 38 Table 4-20. Summary of key residential development regulations that protect ecological

    functions. ............................................................................................... 38 Table 4-21. Summary of potential impacts from transportation facilities. .................. 39 Table 4-22. Summary of key transportation regulations that protect ecological functions.

    .............................................................................................................. 39 Table 4-23. Summary of potential impacts from utilities. ........................................... 40 Table 4-24. Summary of key utilities regulations that protect ecological functions. ... 40 Table 4-25. Summary of potential impacts from beach and dune alterations. ........... 41 Table 4-26. Summary of key dune management regulations that protect ecological functions.

    .............................................................................................................. 41 Table 4-27. Summary of potential impacts from breakwaters, jetties, groins, and weirs.

    .............................................................................................................. 42 Table 4-28. Summary of key breakwaters, jetties, groins, and weirs regulations that protect

    ecological functions. .............................................................................. 43 Table 4-29. Summary of potential impacts from dredging. ........................................ 43 Table 4-30. Summary of key dredging regulations that protect ecological functions. 43 Table 4-31. Summary of potential impacts from fill. .................................................. 44 Table 4-32. Summary of key fill regulations that protect ecological functions. ........... 44 Table 4-33. Summary of potential impacts from piers and docks. ............................. 45

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    Table 4-34. Summary of key piers and docks regulations that protect ecological functions. .............................................................................................................. 46

    Table 4-35. Summary of potential impacts from shoreline habitat and natural system enhancement projects. .......................................................................... 47

    Table 4-36. Summary of key shoreline habitat and natural system enhancement projects regulations that protect ecological functions. ......................................... 47

    Table 4-37. Summary of potential impacts from shoreline stabilization. .................... 48 Table 4-38. Summary of key shoreline stabilization regulations that protect ecological

    functions. ............................................................................................... 48 Table 4-39. Summary of potential impacts from oil and gas uses. ............................ 50 Table 4-40. Summary of key oil and gas use regulations that protect ecological functions.

    .............................................................................................................. 50 Table 4-41. Summary of potential impacts from ocean mining.................................. 51 Table 4-42. Summary of key ocean mining regulations that protect ecological functions.

    .............................................................................................................. 51 Table 4-43. Summary of potential impacts from ocean energy. ................................ 52 Table 4-44. Summary of key ocean energy regulations that protect ecological functions.

    .............................................................................................................. 52 Table 4-45. Summary of potential impacts from ocean disposal. .............................. 53 Table 4-46. Summary of key ocean disposal regulations that protect ecological functions.

    .............................................................................................................. 53 Table 4-47. Summary of potential impacts form ocean transportation. ..................... 54 Table 4-48. Summary of key ocean transportation regulations that protect ecological

    functions. ............................................................................................... 54 Table 4-49. Summary of potential impacts from ocean research. ............................. 55 Table 4-50. Summary of key ocean research regulations that protect ecological functions.

    .............................................................................................................. 55 Table 4-51. Summary of potential impacts from ocean salvage. ............................... 55 Table 4-52. Summary of key ocean salvage regulations that protect ecological functions.

    .............................................................................................................. 56

    L I S T O F F I G U R E S Figure 1-1. Framework to achieve no net loss of ecological function. (Department of

    Ecology) .................................................................................................. 2 Figure 3-1. Population and housing units from 1990-2010 in unincorporated Grays Harbor

    County. Source: OFM, 2013; BERK, 2013 ............................................. 17 Figure 3-2. Shoreline permit applications in Grays Harbor County, 1972-2013. ....... 18 Figure 4-1. Distribution of proposed Shoreline Environment Designations within Grays

    Harbor County. ...................................................................................... 24 Figure 4-2. Shellfish growing areas in Grays Harbor. ............................................... 29

    file://///ws01/Company/PROJECTS/2013/07%20-%20July/130726%20-%20Grays%20Harbor%20SMP/Documents/CIA/Grays%20Harbor%20County%20DRAFT%20CIA%20013117.doc%23_Toc474315888file://///ws01/Company/PROJECTS/2013/07%20-%20July/130726%20-%20Grays%20Harbor%20SMP/Documents/CIA/Grays%20Harbor%20County%20DRAFT%20CIA%20013117.doc%23_Toc474315888

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    C U M U L AT I V E I M PA C T S A N A LY S I S GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY SHORELINE MASTER PROGRAM

    1 INTRODUCTION This Cumulative Impacts Analysis assesses the January 2017 proposed Grays Harbor

    County Shoreline Master Program (SMP) policies and regulations in relation to current

    shoreline conditions documented in the Shoreline Analysis Report (TWC et al. 2015) to

    assess if future development approved under the proposed SMP could achieve no net

    loss of ecological function. This Cumulative Impacts Analysis can help the County make

    adjustments where appropriate in its proposed SMP if there are potential gaps between

    maintaining and degrading ecological functions.

    1.1 Background

    The State Master Program Approval/Amendment Procedures and Master Program

    Guidelines (SMP Guidelines; WAC 173-26) require local shoreline master programs to

    regulate new development to “achieve no net loss of ecological function.” The

    Guidelines (WAC 173-26-186(8)(d)) state that, “To ensure no net loss of ecological

    functions and protection of other shoreline functions and/or uses, master programs shall

    contain policies, programs, and regulations that address adverse cumulative impacts

    and fairly allocate the burden of addressing cumulative impacts.”

    The Guidelines further elaborate on the concept of net loss as follows:

    “When based on the inventory and analysis requirements and completed consistent with

    the specific provisions of these guidelines, the master program should ensure that

    development will be protective of ecological functions necessary to sustain existing

    shoreline natural resources and meet the standard. The concept of “net” as used herein,

    recognizes that any development has potential or actual, short-term or long-term impacts

    and that through application of appropriate development standards and employment of

    mitigation measures in accordance with the mitigation sequence, those impacts will be

    addressed in a manner necessary to assure that the end result will not diminish the

    shoreline resources and values as they currently exist. Where uses or development that

    impact ecological functions are necessary to achieve other objectives of RCW 90.58.020,

    master program provisions shall, to the greatest extent feasible, protect existing ecological

    functions and avoid new impacts to habitat and ecological functions before implementing

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    other measures designed to achieve no net loss of ecological functions.” [WAC 173-26-

    201(2)(c)]

    In short, updated SMPs shall contain goals, policies and regulations that prevent

    degradation of ecological functions relative to the existing conditions as documented in

    that jurisdiction’s inventory and characterization report. For those projects that result in

    degradation of ecological functions, the required mitigation must return the resultant

    ecological function back to the baseline. This is illustrated in the figure below. The

    jurisdiction must be able to demonstrate that it has accomplished that goal through an

    analysis of cumulative impacts that might occur through implementation of the updated

    SMP. Evaluation of such cumulative impacts should consider:

    (i) current circumstances affecting the shorelines and relevant natural

    processes [Chapter 2 below and the Shoreline Analysis Report];

    (ii) reasonably foreseeable future development and use of the shoreline

    [Chapter 3 below and the Shoreline Analysis Report]; and

    (iii) beneficial effects of any established regulatory programs under other local,

    state, and federal laws.” [Chapter 5 below]

    Figure 1-1. Framework to achieve no net loss of ecological function. (Department of Ecology)

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    The Cumulative Impacts Analysis assesses the policies and regulations in the draft SMP

    to determine whether no net loss of ecological function will be achieved as new

    development occurs. SMP regulations fundamentally rely on the concept of mitigation

    sequencing to avoid, minimize, and mitigate for any unavoidable losses of function. An

    accompanying component of the SMP process that can bring environment conditions to

    an improved level is the Shoreline Restoration Plan, which identifies and prioritizes

    potential actions and programs that may be implemented on a voluntary basis. These

    actions, intended to improve existing environmental conditions through a combination

    of enhancement, restoration, and protection, cannot be required by SMP regulations, but

    Section 173-26-201(2)(f) of the Guidelines says: “master programs shall include goals,

    policies and actions for restoration of impaired shoreline ecological functions.” In certain

    communities or shoreline areas, the SMP may not be able to achieve no net loss of

    functions through regulations alone. For example, a community may expect a significant

    reduction in riparian vegetation coverage to accommodate a water-dependent use.

    Compensatory mitigation would be implemented to offset unavoidable impacts,

    perhaps through replanting of riparian vegetation in an adjacent site; however, it may

    take many years before the benefits from the compensatory mitigation are realized. In

    such a circumstance, as with others, the Shoreline Restoration Plan may help bridge the

    gap between the SMP-required mitigation outcome and no net loss of ecological

    function.

    As the SMP is implemented, the County will need to identify methods to track shoreline

    conditions, permit activity, and policy and regulatory effectiveness. County planning

    staff will be required to track land use and development activity, including exemptions,

    within shoreline jurisdiction, and may incorporate actions and programs of the other

    departments as well. With each project application, staff should consider whether

    implementation of the SMP is meeting the basic goal of no net loss of ecological

    functions relative to the baseline condition established in the Shoreline Analysis Report.

    A complete reassessment of conditions, policies and regulations will be considered

    every eight years, during the scheduled SMP update. To conduct a valid reassessment of

    the shoreline conditions, the County will need to identify metrics and then monitor,

    record and maintain key environmental metrics to allow a comparison with baseline

    conditions. As monitoring occurs, the County should assess environmental effects of

    development and restoration objectives. With this level of attention to conditions,

    permitted development, and adaptive management as needed in the long term, the

    County should be able to ensure that the regulations and mitigation sequencing

    required by the SMP will maintain shoreline functions over time.

    1.2 Document Approach and Overview

    This Cumulative Impacts Analysis was prepared consistent with direction provided in

    the Shoreline Master Program Guidelines as described above. The ultimate goal of this

    document is to determine whether future development in the County’s shorelines taking

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    place under the proposed SMP would result in no net loss of ecological functions

    relative to the baseline conditions documented in the Shoreline Analysis Report. To the

    extent that existing information was sufficiently detailed and assumptions about

    possible new or re-development could be made with reasonable certainty, the following

    analysis is quantitative. The analysis in this document is focused on unincorporated

    County lands.

    Existing conditions were first evaluated using the information, both textual and graphic,

    developed and presented in the Shoreline Analysis Report. A summary of existing

    conditions, including ecological conditions and land use, is provided in Chapter 2. More

    detailed analysis of specific shoreline functions, uses, and public access can be found in

    the Shoreline Analysis Report.

    To understand what future development activities in the County’s shorelines might

    occur that could alter existing conditions, Chapter 3 presents the brief results of an

    assessment of likely future development. This assessment is based on existing land use

    conditions, growth trends, land ownership and zoning, and permit history. This

    approach is based on the rationale that future changes in land use trends will be roughly

    comparable to past trends. Given the expansive area of the County’s shorelines, this

    approach helps provide a realistic estimate of the level of foreseeable development.

    The effects of likely development were then evaluated in the context of SMP provisions,

    as well as other related plans, programs, and regulations. For the purpose of evaluating

    impacts, areas with a likelihood of high densities of new development were evaluated in

    greatest detail. Chapter 4 summarizes this evaluation, describing how foreseeable

    development could affect shoreline conditions, and what specific provisions of the

    proposed SMP will help maintain existing conditions in spite of likely future

    development. Chapter 5 describes the beneficial effects that other established regulatory

    programs may have on the County’s shorelines.

    Finally, Chapter 6 zeroes in on the most probable types of development in the County,

    and synthesizes the information from the previous chapters to assess anticipated

    cumulative impacts and summarize whether and how the SMP ensures no net loss of

    ecological functions for shorelines in Grays Harbor County.

    2 SUMMARY OF EXISTING CONDITIONS This summary of existing conditions is intended to provide an overview of conditions in

    the County’s shorelines, and is based on the Shoreline Analysis Report. More detailed

    information on specific shoreline areas is provided in the Shoreline Analysis Report.

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    2.1 Queets-Quinault (WRIA 21)

    WRIA 21 is a largely undeveloped WRIA of 755,674 acres that includes the watersheds

    of the Queets/Clearwater, Quinault, Moclips, Raft, and Copalis Rivers, Kalaloch Creek,

    and several small stream systems. All of these watersheds originate in the Olympic

    Mountains and flow directly into the Pacific Ocean.

    2.1.1 Environment

    For the purposes of the Shoreline Analysis Report, County shorelines were divided into

    individual Assessment Units (AU), defined as fifth-order hydrologic units. Within

    WRIA 21, these include the Queets River AU, the Quinault River AU, and the

    Moclips/Copalis River AU.

    Queets River AU

    Only a small portion of the Queets River basin is located within Grays Harbor County,

    and all shoreline reaches of this AU are located within the Quinault Indian Reservation

    (QIR), including reaches for the Queets River, Harlow Creek, and the Salmon River.

    Logging is the primary land use activity for the watersheds in this AU, and past logging

    activities have “legacy” effects including impacts to sediment and large woody debris

    (LWD) processes. Table 2-1 summarizes ecosystem process conditions and primary

    sources of cumulative impacts within the Queets River AU.

    Table 2-1. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Queets River AU

    Queets Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper (Olympic National Park)

    Excellent – Forest cover and floodplain processes intact

    Natural processes

    Lower Good – Forest cover and floodplain processes intact

    Legacy forest issues

    Quinault River AU

    The Quinault River AU is primarily undeveloped and has good forest cover, though the

    density and diversity and complexity of age classes has been negatively impacted by

    past logging practices. The lower basin is located in the QIR; above Lake Quinault, the

    basin is in federal ownership. Lake Quinault traps most sediment and wood that are

    transported from the Olympic Mountain headwaters (O’Connor et al. 2003), and

    therefore affects these processes downstream of the lake.

    While hyporheic exchange is expected to be high in the braided reaches of the Quinault,

    the clearing of mature forest from the floodplain has contributed to increased channel

    instability. In the lower watershed, smaller rivers such as the Raft, Whale, Camp, and

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    Duck have been severely impacted by past logging practices which affects fish passage.

    Table 2-2 summarizes ecosystem process conditions and primary sources of cumulative

    impacts within the Quinault River AU.

    Table 2-2. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Quinault River AU

    Quinault Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper Good to Excellent – Forest cover and floodplain processes intact

    Low to Moderate – Hyporheic and wetland functions

    Clearing of floodplain vegetation and recreational, residential development around Lake Quinault

    Lower Good – Forest cover and floodplain processes intact

    Forest operations and reduced LWD

    Moclips/Copalis River AU

    The smaller coastal creeks and rivers of this AU have relatively undeveloped upper

    watersheds dominated by forestry, with reaches closer to the coast impacted by

    recreational and residential development. Streams and rivers in this AU do not have

    extensive alluvial soils and as a result rate lower for hyporheic functions.

    Table 2-3. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Moclips/Copalis River AU

    Moclips/Copalis Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper Moderate to Good – Forest cover and floodplain processes intact

    Poor– Hyporheic and wetland functions

    Forest operations and reduced LWD

    Lower Poor to Moderate – Extensive clearing in lower reaches

    Recreational and residential development, forest operations

    2.1.2 Land Use

    WRIA 21 includes areas that are relatively pristine, as well as areas that have been

    greatly affected by logging and land-use activities over the last century. The entire

    WRIA is included in the Usual and Accustomed Fishing and Hunting Area for the

    Quinault Indian Nation (QIN) (WRIA 21 Lead Entity 2011). Although the QIN is the

    only tribe with federally adjudicated rights in Grays Harbor, the Confederated Tribes of

    the Chehalis Reservation and other tribes also have gathering interests in upland areas,

    most notably the Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge. These interests include

    collection of sweetgrass (Schoenoplectus pungens) used for basketweaving.

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    Much of WRIA 21 is in federal, state, or tribal ownership. Approximately 70 percent of

    the WRIA lies within the Olympic National Park or Olympic National Forest. Most or all

    of the forests within the QIN and U.S. Forest Service ownership have been harvested at

    least once (Smith and Caldwell 2001). About one-third of the QIN is owned by the tribe,

    and approximately 50 percent is owned in Trust status by individuals and families of

    different tribes. The remaining lands (less than 15%) are owned “in fee” by non-Indians

    and timber companies.

    Timber harvest began in 1916, spurring the need for railroads and roads for access and

    transport. Timber harvest peaked between 1950 and the mid-1980’s (Smith and Caldwell

    2001). Following the 1994 Northwest Forest Plan, the management focus of National

    Forest lands shifted from fiber production to ecological restoration. Today, variable-

    density thinning (VDT) is the primary commercial thinning method used in Olympic

    National Forest. Currently, less than 0.5 percent of total forestlands are treated with this

    approach each year (USFS, electronic reference). Commercial harvest on private and

    DNR lands primarily in the Clearwater sub-basin continued following the passage of the

    Northwest Forest Plan, although at a lower rate than that seen during the 1980s (Smith

    and Caldwell 2001).

    2.2 Chehalis (WRIA 22/23)

    The 2,766 square mile Chehalis Watershed drains the western side of the Willapa Hills,

    the Black Hills, an area of low mountains on the west side of the Cascade Range, and the

    lower south slopes of the Olympic Range. The largest two tributaries to the Chehalis, the

    Satsop and Wynoochee Rivers, originate in the southern Olympic Mountains and drain

    into the low gradient Chehalis River.

    The Humptulips, Hoquiam, and Wishkah Rivers also originate in the southern Olympic

    Mountains and flow into Grays Harbor. The Johns and Elk Rivers flow into the South

    Bay of Grays Harbor. Within Grays Harbor County, the topography includes steep,

    forested slopes of the southern Olympic Mountains; expansive alluvial floodplains

    associated with the Chehalis River valley; steep, forested slopes along the Coast Range

    foothills; and estuarine wetlands associated with Grays Harbor.

    2.2.1 Environment

    Chehalis River AU

    This AU is characterized by a large undeveloped surge plain in the lower reaches, with

    the balance of the upstream reaches dominated by commercial agricultural operations.

    The Chehalis River surge plain is the largest surge plain in the state and much of the

    area is owned and managed by DNR. It features a large tidal wetland dominated by

    Sitka spruce, including diverse sloughs and islands with emergent, shrub, and forested

    vegetation. The slow moving sloughs provide substantial off-channel habitat for

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    anadromous salmonids and other fish species, including the Olympic mudminnow

    (WDNR 2009).

    Riparian and floodplain vegetation cover is sparse in the upstream reaches due to

    historic and ongoing agriculture. This has impacted floodplain processes and functions,

    including water quality functions for water temperature, dissolved oxygen levels, and

    fecal coliform.

    Riprap is present in some of the tributaries, and splash dams have probably limited

    LWD processes and floodplain connectivity. Riparian conditions in the lower reaches of

    the Black River, Porter, Garrard, Cedar, and Rock Creeks are limited by agricultural

    development and narrow buffers.

    Table 2-4. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Chehalis River AU

    Humptulips Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Surge plain – upper reaches

    Good to Very Good – Floodplain processes are intact with high riparian and floodplain forest cover; impacts to water flow and water quality processes

    Agriculture and forestry operations

    Lower reaches Poor – Floodplain processes impaired; riparian and floodplain clearing extensive

    Agriculture in floodplain; forestry operations

    Satsop River AU

    Extensive forest operations in the upper watershed have reduced forest cover, increased

    road density, and created high peak flows, very low base flows, and high sediment

    loads. Disturbance to forest cover is low in the National Forest compared to private

    timber land areas; however, fish passage barriers associated with forest roads are

    present in shoreline jurisdiction in the National Forest. Recent channel incision has

    limited floodplain and off-channel connectivity (Grays Harbor Lead Entity 2011).

    Historic splash damming, removal of LWD, and clear-cutting have also likely

    contributed to a reduction in riparian functions, limited LWD, floodplain disconnection,

    and reduced hyporheic activity (Grays Harbor Lead Entity 2011).

    The lower watershed is predominantly in agricultural use. Riparian forest cover in these

    areas is the lowest in the watershed. Riprap is present in places in the lower mainstem,

    and a perimeter dike around the former gravel mining ponds limits flooding of

    approximately 40 acres.

  • The Watershed Company and BERK February 2017

    9

    Table 2-5. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Satsop River AU

    Satsop Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper Poor – Extensive clearing of forest cover; high density of roads; watershed processes impaired

    Forestry operations

    Lower Poor – Floodplain processes impaired; channel incision and disconnected floodplain and channel armoring; riparian and floodplain clearing extensive; gravel operations

    Agriculture in floodplain; forestry operations

    Wynoochee River AU

    The upper Wynoochee Watershed is partially within the Olympic National Forest,

    resulting in high performance of watershed processes and functions, including habitat

    for Roosevelt elk and marbled murrelets. Reaches downstream are within commercial

    forest lands and floodplains cleared for agricultural operations. Consequently, shoreline

    processes and functions are impaired. This includes impacts to sediment, low flow, and

    temperature processes created by the Wynoochee Dam.

    Table 2-6. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Wynoochee River AU

    Wynoochee Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper Poor to Good – Forest and floodplain processes impacted below Wynoochee Lake, especially sediment supply, low flow support and temperature processes; extensive clearing of forest cover

    Forestry operations

    Lower Poor to Good – Floodplain processes impaired; some channel incision and disconnected floodplain areas; riparian and floodplain clearing extensive; some gravel operations in floodplain; watershed processes affected by forest clearing and roads

    Agriculture in floodplain; forestry operations

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    10

    Cloquallum and Mox Chehalis AU

    These are low gradient streams with contributing watersheds impacted by rural

    residential and agricultural uses. Clearing of forest and riparian cover by these uses has

    impaired floodplain and watershed processes. Low flows are an issue for Mox Chehalis

    and Wildcat Creeks. Functional analysis showed some of the lowest performance of

    functions within the County.

    Table 2-7. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Cloquallum and Mox Chehalis AU

    Cloquallum/Mox Chehalis Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper and Lower Very Poor – Floodplain and watershed processes impaired

    Agriculture and rural residential in the floodplain and contributing watershed

    Humptulips River AU

    While the upper two thirds of the East and West Fork drainages are within the Olympic

    National Forest, the balance is in private forest ownership. The high density of forest

    roads and ongoing forest activities in the lower third of the watershed affects watershed

    processes and functions, including sediment, water temperature, and fish passage.

    Extensive floodplain wetlands are present in the lower reaches and riparian forests have

    been diminished in these areas. The lower, tidally influenced reaches of the Humptulips

    River consist of fairly undeveloped floodplain and tidal slough habitats. Gravel bar

    mining was conducted in the lower reaches, altering sediment processes. Some

    channelization is present which limits channel migration processes.

    Table 2-8. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Humptulips River AU

    Humptulips Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper (2/3 Olympic National Park)

    Excellent – Forest and floodplain processes intact; forest cover reduced

    Natural processes and legacy impacts from forestry

    Lower Poor to Good – Floodplain processes intact but floodplain and riparian forest reduced

    Agriculture and rural residential and gravel operations

    Hoquiam River AU

    As a result of past forestry practices and scattered rural residential development in the

    East Fork and West Fork Hoquiam River, riparian and floodplain conditions are reduced

    compared to their historical condition (Grays Harbor Lead Entity 2011). Vegetation

    coverage is most limited in the reaches closest to the City of Hoquiam. Diversion dams

  • The Watershed Company and BERK February 2017

    11

    on Davis Creek and the West Fork Hoquiam River provide water storage for the City of

    Hoquiam; these dams limit downstream sediment transport and fish passage (WDFW

    2013).

    Table 2-9. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Hoquiam River AU

    Hoquiam Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper Poor – Forest cover reduced, floodplain processes impacted; channel migration restricted on west fork

    Forestry operations, rural residential, agriculture, US Highway 101

    Lower Poor – Floodplain not completely intact due to some armoring at mouth, riparian forest clearing

    Forestry operations and rural residential, agriculture, and urban development at mouth (City of Hoquiam)

    Wishkah River AU

    Commercial timberlands predominate in the upper watershed. Historic splash dams and

    flashy flows associated with extensive forest clearing have resulted in incised,

    straightened channels in the upper watershed, and disruption of floodplain connectivity

    in the middle reaches of the watershed (Grays Harbor Lead Entity 2011). Hyporheic

    functions are also expected to be degraded as a result of past splash dam operation. Fish

    passage barriers are common throughout most of the AU, and the Malinowski Dam may

    affect sediment transport.

    Table 2-10. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Wishkah River AU

    Wishkah Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper Poor – Forest and floodplain processes impacted; extensive clearing of forest cover, high road density, incised channels, fish barriers

    Forestry operations

    Lower Poor to Good – Floodplain intact immediately above Aberdeen; cleared elsewhere

    Legacy effects from splash dams; forestry operations, agriculture, rural residential

    South Grays Harbor Tributaries AU

    The majority of the basin is managed as commercial timberlands, with rural residential

    development concentrated in the lower reaches near the highway. The AU has some of

    the highest road densities in the Chehalis Basin, resulting in many fish passage barriers.

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    A combination of estuarine and diked freshwater wetlands occur in the lower reaches of

    the South Grays Harbor tributaries.

    Table 2-11. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the South Grays Harbor Tributaries AU

    South Grays Harbor Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper and Lower Poor to Good – Watershed and floodplain processes generally intact but impaired by dikes, reduced riparian cover in areas and by forest clearing and high road density; sediment and erosion processes most impacted

    Forestry operations

    2.2.2 Land Use

    Today, the majority of the total basin area (87%) is forestland; however, most urban,

    agricultural, and industrial development is concentrated along the river valleys (Grays

    Harbor County 2004). In fact, the Chehalis Watershed Management Plan reports that 42

    percent of land within one mile of the major rivers in the basin is in agricultural, urban,

    or industrial uses. Both agricultural and forestry uses have resulted in significant

    alterations to the shorelines of the South Fork Chehalis River.

    Gravel mining operations from the 1950s to the 1990s in and along the Chehalis,

    Wynoochee, Satsop, Skookumchuck, and Newaukum Rivers have modified sediment

    transport processes and substrate within those watersheds (Collins 1995). These gravel

    operations account for 50 floodplain mine lakes, or approximately one-fifth of the total

    floodplain mine lakes in Washington State (Collins 1995).

    The Chehalis Indian Reservation is located near the mouth of the Black River in the

    southeastern corner of Grays Harbor County. Although the Quinault Indian Reservation

    was established outside the Chehalis Basin boundaries, members of the Quinault Indian

    Nation have fished and hunted in the Chehalis Basin for centuries and its recognized

    usual and accustomed fishing areas include Grays Harbor and the Chehalis Basin,

    including the Humptulips River (Grays Harbor County 2004).

    2.3 Willapa (WRIA 24)

    The northern portion of WRIA 24 extends into Grays Harbor County. The North River

    flows north from the hills of Pacific County into Grays Harbor County, before heading

    south and draining into the northern portion of Willapa Bay. Major tributaries within

    Grays Harbor County include the Salmon, Lower Salmon, Vesta, and Pioneer Creeks,

    and the Little North Fork River.

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    2.3.1 Environment

    North River AU

    The North River AU consists mostly of private forest lands. Riparian forest cover is high

    along most shoreline watercourses, with the exception of lower forest cover observed on

    Pioneer and Raimie Creeks, and in areas of rural residential development near the town

    of Artic. Wetland area is naturally low in these upper watershed reaches. Water

    temperatures are identified as impaired in these reaches, as well as just upstream in the

    Salmon River. Roads, railroads, and forestry uses have resulted in numerous landslides

    in the North River AU (Smith 1999).

    Table 2-12. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the North River AU

    North River Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Upper and Lower Poor to Good – Floodplain and watershed processes generally intact; riparian and floodplain clearing limited and forest clearing is low to moderate

    Forestry operations

    2.3.2 Land Use

    The North River Watershed is primarily in commercial forest uses. Residential and

    agricultural land uses generally occur along the stretch of the North River and its

    tributaries around Vesta and Artic. Recreational land use is concentrated near Artic.

    Water-dependent uses include a dam on the North River south of Salmon Creek. Roads

    within shoreline jurisdiction are concentrated on the North River east of U.S. Highway

    101 and the downstream reaches of the Little North River.

    2.4 Marine and Estuarine Shorelines

    The Pacific Coast along Grays Harbor County is part of the Columbia River Littoral Drift

    Cell. Sediment from the Grays Harbor estuary feeds into and out of the Columbia River

    littoral cell (CLRC). South of Point Grenville, the primary source of sediment is the

    Columbia River, and the nearshore environment in Grays Harbor County is

    characterized by long stretches of sand beaches with low-lying dunes. North of Point

    Grenville, outside the CLRC, the coast is composed of narrow beaches backed by steep

    cliffs.

    2.4.1 Environment

    Grays Harbor Estuary AU

    The Grays Harbor Estuary supports numerous tidal marshes and mudflats and also

    contains many areas that were historical tidal marshes that may have been impacted by

    diking and fill to build and protect roads, railroads, bridges, and residential

  • Grays Harbor County Cumulative Impacts Analysis

    14

    development. Existing habitats provide nesting and foraging opportunities for shorebird

    assemblages, birds of prey, juvenile salmonids, and other fish species. Areas west of

    South Arbor, Beardsley Slough, Grass Island, and Damon Point also supports eelgrass

    beds, which provide nursery habitats for a range of aquatic species.

    Some of the least developed shorelines along the harbor are found in North Bay,

    Beardsley Slough, and Damon Point. These reaches do not have shoreline armoring, and

    they have few, if any roads in shoreline jurisdiction. North Bay is characterized by

    undeveloped forested and emergent wetlands.

    Ongoing dike breaches are restoring historic tidal marsh habitat throughout this AU.

    However, existing armoring, dikes, and groins remain in places, such as the 1000 feet of

    “truck tire” armoring east of Bottle Beach State Park.

    Maintenance and operation of the navigation channel in this AU causes further impacts

    to shoreline processes and functions.

    Table 2-13. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Grays Harbor Estuary AU

    Grays Harbor Estuary Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Estuary shoreline Poor to Excellent – Estuarine shoreline processes and functions are intact within locations of undeveloped shoreline but significantly impaired in development areas. Dikes, berms, fill, and armoring either reduce or eliminate tidal processes and significantly impair biological functions

    Residential, road, and railroad development; navigation channel maintenance

    Pacific Coast AU

    North of Point Grenville, the coast is composed of narrow beaches backed by steep cliffs

    with forested vegetation. Shoreline armoring is present along the coast where

    development or roads occur at river and stream mouths at Taholah, Wreck Creek, and

    Joe Creek. This armoring affects sediment and longshore drift processes. South of Point

    Grenville, the nearshore environment in Grays Harbor County is characterized by long

    stretches of sand beaches with low-lying dunes with herbaceous and shrub vegetation.

    Table 2-14. Summary of ecosystem conditions and impairments in the Pacific Coast AU

    Pacific Coast Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    Coast shoreline Good – Total vegetation limited in northern reaches;

    Natural processes;

  • The Watershed Company and BERK February 2017

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    Pacific Coast Watershed Position

    Ecosystem process conditions

    Primary source(s) of cumulative impacts

    marine vegetation limited in southern reaches; sediment processes impaired in some places; hydrologic processes intact

    armoring

    2.4.2 Land Use

    Within Grays Harbor, the inner harbor is heavily industrialized with major port

    facilities, an airport, pulp mills, landfills, sewage treatment plants, and log storage

    facilities. Grays Harbor provides commercial shipping access to cities and ports up the

    Chehalis River.

    In 1982, Simenstad et al. estimated that about 30% of historic estuary area had been lost.

    The loss of estuarine habitat has resulted from fill to build the cities of Aberdeen and

    Hoquiam, and diking and fill elsewhere in the estuary and lower portions of rivers

    (Smith and Wenger 2001).

    Nine hundred acres, approximately three percent of the total tidelands in Grays Harbor,

    are commercially farmed for oysters or clams. Approximately 6,600 to 8,000 acres of

    tidelands within Grays Harbor have been designated as resource lands of long term

    commercial significance for their oyster resources.

    A concentration of recreational land use is located near the town of Laidlow.

    Within the QIR, the Pacific Coast shoreline is predominantly undeveloped, with the

    exception of the Town of Taholah. Outside of the QIR, the Pacific Coast shoreline is

    managed under the Seashore Conservation Act.

    3 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT State SMA guidelines require that jurisdictions preparing SMP updates conduct an

    analysis to estimate the future demand for shoreline space (WAC 173-26-201(3)(D)).

    Because Grays Harbor County does not have the requirement to plan under the Growth

    Management Act (RCW 36.70), many of the standard data sources used to estimate

    future growth, such as buildable lands analyses, are not available. Therefore, the land

    use analysis completed as part of the Shoreline Analysis Report drew from several

    alternative sources of information in order to understand potential future demand for

    shoreline space.

  • Grays Harbor County Cumulative Impacts Analysis

    16

    This section summarizes the results of the land use analysis, including existing land use

    patterns, ownership of shoreline land, and trends in population and housing growth

    and shoreline permit applications. It then presents an analysis of future development

    potential by analyzing the amount and distribution of vacant lands in the County within

    the context of the County’s existing zoning designations and proposed shoreline

    environment designations. The section concludes with a summary of reasonably

    foreseeable future development within County shorelines based on the information

    presented.

    3.1 Analysis of Development Trends

    3.1.1 Existing Land Use

    Existing land use provides a baseline for the types of land use and land use patterns

    found within shoreline jurisdiction. As part of the land use analysis in the Shoreline

    Analysis Report, existing land use data were obtained from the Grays Harbor County

    Assessor and overlaid on the shoreline jurisdiction landward of the ordinary high water

    mark.

    Grays Harbor County’s economy has historically been heavily focused on resource

    extraction, including forestry, fishing, mining, agriculture, and aquaculture. This focus

    has a strong influence on the County’s land use pattern, including shoreline land use. A

    significant amount of shoreline area that the County Assessor has classified as

    “undeveloped land” is functionally timber land that is unlikely to change use during the

    20-year planning horizon of the SMP. In order to better represent areas with potential for

    future development, shoreline areas classified as Forest Site Class I or II or Red Alder

    (RA) in the WDNR Forest Site Class data were reclassified from undeveloped to forestry

    in the land use analysis.

    Table 3-1 presents a summary of land use in Grays Harbor County shorelines. The

    Quinault Indian Reservation, Olympic National Forest (ONF), Olympic National Park

    (ONP), and Chehalis Indian Reservation comprise substantial portions of Grays Harbor

    County. The County Assessor does not assess taxes for these areas and, therefore, does

    not maintain land use information for them. These areas are reported as “unknown” in

    the table below.

    Table 3-1. Shoreline Land Use Pattern in Grays Harbor County.

    Land Use Shoreline

    Acres

    Percent of

    Shoreline

    Jurisdiction

    Forestry 34,958 55%

    Vacant/Undeveloped 9,773 15%

    Unknown 9,168 14%

    Residential 4,245 7%

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    Land Use Shoreline

    Acres

    Percent of

    Shoreline

    Jurisdiction

    Agriculture 3,438 5%

    Cultural, Entertainment and Recreation 1,901 3%

    Manufacturing/Industrial 410 1%

    Transportation, Communications and Utilities 134

  • Grays Harbor County Cumulative Impacts Analysis

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    It is important to note that the pace of shoreline permit applications has slowed

    dramatically in recent years. Since 2000, only 122 (15 percent of the total) shoreline

    permit applications have been submitted. Some of this decrease may be attributable to a

    reduction in shoreline activities. However, the decrease is also attributable to the

    increase in the number of exemptions that have been added since the SMA was adopted.

    Figure 3-2 shows the shoreline permit trend in the County over time.

    Figure 3-2. Shoreline permit applications in Grays Harbor County, 1972-2013.

    3.2 Analysis of Vacant Lands

    In addition to identifying current land use patterns, the location and amount of vacant

    lands were analyzed as a means to evaluate development capacity within the County’s

    shorelines. The County’s zoning districts and the proposed shoreline environment

    designations (see Section 4.1 of this document) dictate what types of shoreline

    development are allowed where. Together, these three elements – vacant land, zoning,

    and shoreline environment designation – provide a framework for future development

    in Grays Harbor County. Table 3-2 summarizes vacant lands by zoning district and

    proposed shoreline environment designation.

    Table 3-2. Vacant Land by Zoning District and Shoreline Environment Designation.

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    Zoning Districts

    High

    Intensity

    Natural -

    Uplands

    Coastal

    Community

    Rural

    Development

    Shoreline

    Residential

    Total

    Acres

    Agricultural 1 76 140 0 217

    Agricultural 2 1 280 12 294

    Commercial (General) 0 2 6 0 9

    General Development 5 1 3131 5 2102 28 5268

    Industrial 96 209 458 763

    Not Zoned 0 34 5 497 18 554

    Residential (General) 8 2 36 16 59

    Residential (Lake Quinault) 89 89

    Residential (Resort) 98 33 133 200 464

    Residential (Restricted) 2 3 7 12

    Rural Residential 13 13

    Satsop Multi-Use District 13 13

    Total Acres 105 3549 49 3770 281 7753

    Shoreline Environment Designations (Acres)

    The majority of vacant land within shoreline jurisdiction (5,268 acres, or 70%) is zoned

    General Development (G5). Permitted uses in the G5 District are predominantly low-

    intensity uses such as single-family homes, public and semi-public uses, parks, public

    utilities, and marijuana processing and production. Conditional uses include airports

    and motor vehicle sports tracks. While these uses are greater in intensity, there is likely

    not a high demand for this type of development within shoreline jurisdiction.

    Additionally, such uses would only be permitted if consistent with the shoreline

    environment designation. The vast majority of vacant lands (7,319 acres, or 94%) in

    shoreline jurisdiction are within the Natural and Rural Development environment

    designations, which allow for limited low-density development with an emphasis on

    preserving and restoring ecological functions.

    Land zoned for industrial use within shoreline jurisdiction allows for the most intense

    development and has the most potential for adverse impacts. Approximately 763 acres

    of vacant land within shoreline jurisdiction is zoned for industrial use, including 458

    acres in the Rural Development environment and 209 acres in the Natural environment.

    These lands are concentrated on the east side of Grays Harbor at the mouth of the

    Chehalis River, adjacent to the cities of Aberdeen and Cosmopolis. Industrial use is not

    permitted in the Rural Development and Natural environments, which will prevent

    future industrial development within shoreline jurisdiction despite the zoning

    designation.. 717 acres, or 94 percent of vacant lands zoned for industrial use within

    shoreline jurisdiction, contain wetlands (Table 3-3). This high concentration of wetlands

    will be a significant limiting factor for future development in these industrially-zoned

    areas.

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    Table 3-3. Vacant Industrial Lands by Shoreline Environment Designation.

    Vacant Land

    High

    Intensity

    Natural -

    Uplands

    Rural

    Development Total Acres

    Industrial Zoning 96 209 458 763

    Wetlands 81 206 431 717Developable Industrial Land (Acres) 16 3 27 46

    Shoreline Environment Designations

    3.3 Summary of Reasonably Foreseeable Future Development

    3.3.1 Queets-Quinault (WRIA 21)

    Land use in the Queets-Quinault AUs is defined by significant tribal and public

    ownership. The Olympic National Park, Olympic National Forest, and private and

    public timber lands limit future development potential. Shoreline permit activity has

    historically been low, with only one Shoreline Substantial Development permit recorded

    since the early 1970s in the Queets and Quinault River AUs. The Moclips/Copalis AU

    has experienced the highest rate of development and has the greatest potential for future

    development of residential, recreation, and commercial development, with 30 percent of

    its land within shoreline jurisdiction classified as vacant. Future development is

    expected to continue to be composed of low-density residential and recreation uses in

    concentrated areas.

    3.3.2 Chehalis (WRIA 22/23)

    Land use in the Chehalis AUs is dominated by forestry, with smaller areas of

    vacant/undeveloped land, low-density residential, recreation, and limited areas of

    commercial and industrial development. The majority of the AUs have limited

    development capacity, and future land use and growth patterns are generally expected

    to be consistent with the County-wide trend. The Chehalis AU has the most significant

    potential for new development, with approximately 58 percent of its land within

    shoreline jurisdiction classified as vacant or undeveloped. An estimated additional 250

    homes could be developed within the AU based on existing development capacity.

    However, development and permit trends suggest continued low rates of growth and

    development in the near term.

    3.3.3 Willapa (WRIA 24)

    Existing land use in the North River AU is dominated by forestry uses with limited areas

    of residential, agricultural, and recreation uses. The area has limited shoreline lands

    available for future development, with approximately 49 acres classified as vacant or

    undeveloped. While this number does not account for possible conversions of forestry

  • The Watershed Company and BERK February 2017

    21

    land to non-forestry uses, permit activity has been low since 1972, with only six

    shoreline permits issued since 2000, all for transportation projects. Based on the limited

    development capacity and historically low permit activity, future development is

    expected to be very limited.

    3.3.4 Marine and Estuarine Shorelines

    Land use in the Pacific Coast AU contains less forestry use than the rest of the County,

    and instead is dominated by residential and recreation uses with concentrated areas of

    greater intensity development, including commercial uses within coastal communities.

    However, the most prevalent shoreline use category in the Pacific Coast AU is

    vacant/undeveloped land, which comprises 384 acres, or 31 percent of the total shoreline

    area in the AU. Fifty-three percent of the vacant land is located in the north portion of

    the County within the Quinault Indian Reservation, and 42 percent is located in the

    southern reaches and zoned for residential development. However, due to the fact that

    the Pacific Ocean beaches in the County are very wide, most of the beach fronting

    structures are located outside of shoreline jurisdiction. This will likely be true for new

    development as well.

    Land use in the Grays Harbor Estuary AU is primarily classified as undeveloped (48%)

    and forestry (22%). Concentrations of undeveloped areas occur along the northern and

    southern shorelines of Grays Harbor. Residential, manufacturing, and recreational uses

    are concentrated in unincorporated areas of existing development along the harbor.

    Limited development potential exists within Estuary shorelines, as 87 percent of the

    vacant and undeveloped land is zoned for low density development. Those areas zoned

    for industrial and residential uses that are close to urbanized areas are the most likely to

    support future development.

    4 APPLICATION OF THE SMP This chapter describes how foreseeable development could affect shoreline conditions,

    and what specific provisions of the proposed SMP will help maintain existing conditions

    in spite of likely future development. This chapter begins, in Section 4.1, with a

    summary of the County’s proposed environment designation scheme and a discussion

    of how the scheme allocates allowed uses by relating environment designations to

    ecological functions. Section 4.2 presents key general standards and regulations in the

    SMP intended to protect the ecological functions of the shoreline. Sections 4.3 and 4.4

    include the following for each specific use or modification, respectively, listed in the

    SMP:

    • An assessment of the future development potential for the use or

    modification, if allowed by available data;

  • Grays Harbor County Cumulative Impacts Analysis

    22

    • A summary of the potential impacts that could result from future

    development of the specific use or modification; and

    • A summary of key regulations in the SMP that would avoid, minimize, or

    mitigate potential impacts.

    Section 4.5 includes these sections for each specific ocean resource use listed in the SMP.

    Chapter 4 concludes, in Section 4.6, with a discussion of the potential beneficial effects of

    the Shoreline Restoration Plan.

    4.1 Shoreline Environment Designations

    The first line of protection of the County’s shorelines is the shoreline overlay district

    environment designation assignments. According to the Guidelines (WAC 173-26-211),

    the assignment of environment designations must be based on the existing use pattern,

    the biological and physical character of the shoreline, and the goals and aspirations of

    the community as expressed through a comprehensive plan.

    The assignment of environment designations can help minimize cumulative impacts by

    concentrating development activity in lower functioning areas that are not likely to

    experience significant function degradation with incremental increases in new

    development or redevelopment.

    Consistent with WAC Shoreline Master Program Guidelines, the County’s environment

    designation system is based on the existing use pattern, the biological and physical

    character of the shoreline, and community interests. The Shoreline Analysis Report

    provided information on shoreline conditions and functions that informed the

    development of environment designations for each of the shoreline waterbodies. The

    proposed upland environment designations are as follows:

    • High Intensity

    • Coastal Community

    • Shoreline Residential

    • Rural Development

    • Natural

    The purpose of the High Intensity environment designation is to provide for high-

    intensity water-oriented and water-related commercial, transportation, and industrial

    uses that protect existing ecological functions and allow opportunities for restoration.

    Within this designation, priority should be given to water-dependent, water-related, and

    water-enjoyment uses. The designation is appropriate for those shoreline areas that

    currently support or that are identified in the comprehensive plan as suitable for high-

    intensity commercial and industrial uses, or those areas that are degraded due to

    existing and past development patterns. Approximately 226 acres, or < 1 percent of the

    County’s shorelines, are designated High Intensity environment.

  • The Watershed Company and BERK February 2017

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    The purpose of the Coastal Community environment designation is to accommodate

    limited areas of more intense rural development and planned unit developments along

    the Pacific Coast and Lake Quinault shorelines that protect existing ecological functions

    and allow opportunities for restoration. The designation is appropriate for shoreline

    areas within rural activity centers that support a mix of development, including planned

    unit developments, and are generally served by public facilities and services at low

    urban densities. Approximately 191 acres, or < 1 percent of the County’s shorelines, are

    designated Coastal Community environment.

    The purpose of the Shoreline Residential environment designation is to provide for

    residential and low-intensity water-oriented commercial and public access development

    along shorelines at appropriate densities that protect existing ecological functions and

    allow for restoration opportunities. The designation is appropriate for shoreline areas

    that support or are suitable for single-family and small scale water-oriented commercial

    development at lower densities of one- to five-acre parcels. Shoreline Residential

    shoreline areas should be able to provide water-oriented public access and recreation

    development and protect or restore ecological functions. Approximately 1,170 acres, or 2

    percent of the County’s shorelines, are designated Shoreline Residential environment.

    The purpose of the Rural Development environment designation is to provide for the

    protection of designated resource lands of long-term significance and open space,

    allowing low-density single-family residences, and promoting low-impact outdoor

    recreation use. Development characteristics for this environment designation emphasize

    maintaining rural character and managing resource lands in a sustainable manner while

    protecting existing ecological functions and promoting restoration opportunities. The

    designation is appropriate for shoreline areas that support resource lands of long-term

    commercial significance, contribute to critical aquifer recharge, accommodate rural, low-

    density residential development, or have otherwise been identified as suitable for

    resource use or low-intensity residential or recreational development. Approximately

    51,251 acres, or 73 percent of the County’s shorelines, are designated Rural Development

    environment.

    The purpose of the Natural environment designation is to protect shoreline areas that

    are ecologically intact or minimally degraded and retain value because of their natural,

    unaltered condition or scientific, educational, or historic interest. The designation is

    appropriate for shoreline areas that perform an important, irreplaceable function that is

    susceptible to damage from human activity, or those areas that cannot support new

    development without significant adverse impacts to ecological functions or risk to

    human safety. The environment designation includes shoreline areas both above and

    below the ordinary high water mark. Above the ordinary high water mark,

    approximately 8,044 acres, or 12 percent of the County’s shorelines, are designated

    Natural environment.

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    Approximately 8,899 acres, or 13 percent of the County’s shorelines, fall within tribal

    lands and are not designated.

    Figure 4-1. Distribution of proposed Shoreline Environment Designations within Grays Harbor County.

    In addition, the following environment designations are proposed for areas waterward

    of the ordinary high water mark:

    • Aquatic

    • Pacific Ocean

    • Natural

    Note that the Natural designation applies to both upland and aquatic areas.

    The Uses by Environment Designation, Shoreline Modifications by Environment

    Designation, and Ocean Management Actions by Environment Designation tables (SMP

    Tables 1, 2, and 3, respectively) identify the prohibited and allowed uses and

    modifications in each of the shoreline environments, and clearly show a hierarchy of

    higher-impacting uses and modifications being allowed in the already highly-altered

    shoreline environments, with uses more limited in the less developed areas either

    through prohibition or a requirement for a shoreline conditional use permit. The

    allowed and prohibited uses established in these tables help minimize cumulative

    impacts by concentrating high intensity development activity in lower functioning areas

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    that are less likely to experience significant function degradation with incremental

    increases in development. Additionally, allowed uses are subject to the general

    provisions of the SMP (see Section 4.2), as well as the provisions specific to that use or

    modification (see Section 4.3). These provisions are intended to minimize adverse

    impacts from shoreline uses, and help ensure that such uses result in no net loss of

    ecological functions.

    4.1.1 Potential Use Conflicts

    In general, the proposed SMP includes prohibited and permitted uses specific to

    environment designations that limit potential conflicts between neighboring uses.

    Environment designations are generally consistent with comprehensive plan

    designations and zoning, with a few notable exceptions. The area at the mouth of

    Newskah Creek, where a dike was breached to restore tidal functions is assigned a

    natural environment designation; however, the comprehensive plan designation for the

    area is high intensity and the zoning is industrial. The County should review this area in

    its next comprehensive plan update to ensure consistency.

    Another area for consideration is the residential community north of Satsop, which is

    located within the floodway of the Satsop River. The area is designated as Shoreline

    Residential, which is consistent with existing conditions; however, provisions that

    prohibit development in the floodway would prohibit future development or

    redevelopment in this area. Additional planning and coordination specific to this area

    could be beneficial.

    Although there is potential for future use conflict, particularly in land use zones that

    provide a wide variety of land uses, the proposed SMP provides guidance and a

    regulatory framework that helps minimize or avoid future use conflicts in shoreline

    jurisdiction. Similarly, the proposed SMP provides a framework for allowing and/or

    encouraging shoreline preferred uses in the shoreline jurisdiction.

    4.2 General Shoreline Regulations

    4.2.1 Shoreline ecological functions

    Critical Areas in Shoreline Jurisdiction

    The proposed SMP incorporates by reference GHCC Chapter 18.06, Critical Areas

    Protection Ordinance (SMP Section 1.5). SMP Section 1.5.1 lists various exceptions to the

    Critical Areas Ordinance, including use of a shoreline variance process and allowed

    water-oriented uses within shoreline buffers. As defined in GHCC 18.02, all waters of

    the state are included as Fish and Wildlife Habitat Conservation Areas, and therefore,

    critical areas regulations will apply to any shoreline development waterward of the

    OHWM or within the shoreline buffers applied to Type S (Shorelines) waters and

    defined in Section 3.3.3(E) of the SMP.

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    The Critical Areas Protection Ordinance was revised and approved in 2012, based on

    best available science; therefore, protection standards for shorelines, other fish and

    wildlife habitat conservation areas, wetlands, geologically hazardous areas, frequently

    flooded areas, and critical aquifer recharge areas should be sufficient to maintain

    existing shoreline ecological functions.

    Vegetation Conservation

    The proposed SMP includes shoreline vegetation conservation standards in Section 3.3.3.

    As with the critical areas standards described above, these standards refer to the

    County’s critical areas code to regulate removal of vegetation within shoreline buffers.

    Additional standards include requiring that development retain vegetation to the

    greatest extent feasible within critical area buffers; limiting pathways, limiting thinning

    of shoreline vegetation to create or protect views; and requiring shoreline review to

    determine that the removal of shoreline vegetation within critical areas will not result in

    a net loss of ecological function.

    Mitigation Sequencing and No Net Loss of Ecological Function

    GHCC 18.06.020, Critical Area Protection Special Studies, establishes the requirement for

    a special study for projects that may affect critical areas. The special study must include

    a discussion of mitigation sequencing measures, including avoidance, minimization, and

    compensation, proposed to preserve the existing critical protection area and, if

    appropriate, restore degraded functions. The mitigation sequencing preference is

    identified in GHCC 18.06.080, Mitigation. The proposed SMP refers to these provisions

    for development that degrades existing shoreline ecological functions (SMP Section 3.3).

    4.2.2 Flood hazard reduction

    Per GHCC 18.06.125, incorporated by reference, as described above, development in the

    floodway may not result in an increase in the base flood elevation and new residential

    development in the floodway is prohibited. Development and subdivision of land is not

    allowed in floodways, channel migration zones, or coastal flooding zones if flood hazard

    reduction measures would be necessitated. (SMP Section 3.4.3).

    4.2.3 Water quality, stormwater, and nonpoint pollution

    The proposed SMP would apply standards in the most current Stormwater Management

    Manual for Western Washington (3.8.3A.). Additionally, on-site sewage systems would

    be required to be placed as far from the OHWM as possible (3.8.3.C.). In addition to the

    applicable standards of the Stormwater Management Manual, the proposed SMP

    requires that new and expanded development within the High Intensity and Coastal

    Community environments, as well as subdivisions of more than four parcels implement

    use low impact development to control stormwater (3.8.3.B. and 3.8.3.D).

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    4.2.4 Other general regulations

    In addition to the critical area buffers stipulated in GHCC18.06.125, the proposed SMP

    applies a 10-foot structural setback to any buffer required by the SMP (3.6.3.E.), which

    helps to limit buffer disturbance. The proposed SMP includes policies and regulations

    for shorelines of statewide significance that among other criteria, give preference to

    sustainable, long-term uses, water-oriented uses, and activities that include shoreline

    restoration or enhancement (3.7.2).

    4.3 Shoreline Uses

    The following three subsections (4.3, 4.4, and 4.5) provide a brief summary of the

    primary potential ecological impacts that may arise from various shoreline uses,

    shoreline modifications, and ocean uses, as well as a summary of the proposed SMP

    regulations intended to conserve ecological functions and prevent adverse cumulative

    impacts. The sections are organized according to the document structure of the

    proposed SMP.

    Regulations that help ensure that impacts are avoided, minimized, and mitigated can be

    separated into the following three general categories: (1) provisions that allow,

    condition, or prohibit specific types of development depending on Shoreline

    Designation; (2) provisions that apply specific standards that help avoid and minimize

    potential impacts; and (3) provisions that require mitigation of impacts and/or

    demonstration of no net loss of functions.

    The potential impacts described in the sections below account for the more significant or

    most likely impacts, but may not account for the full suite of potential impacts from a

    given use or modification. These less significant or less likely impacts, while not

    specifically discussed below, would be addressed during the permitting process through

    mitigation sequencing requirements. Also, the listing of potential impacts does not mean

    that these impacts occur in every instance of a certain use or modification.

    4.3.1 Agriculture

    Ongoing ag