Graphic novels for elicitation of normative future scenarios

Graphic novels for elicitation of normative future scenariosDave Murray-Rust, Joske Houtkamp, Marc Metzger, Inge La Riviere, Marta Perez-Soba, James Paterson, Anne Jensen

OutlineBackground visions of future land useDesign ConstraintsTask and interface descriptionReflections and usageThe World is changing rapidlyAnthropocene, since 1784 (Crutzen)

Great acceleration,from 1950 (Steffen)

BackgroundScenarios?The most likely future isntTool for exploring the futureCoherent descriptions of the future, qualitative and/or quantitativeE.g. SRES emissions scenarios for climate changeVarious types, e.g. exploratory vs normativeVisions?Normative scenarios what do people desireCombine with exploratory scenarios to create a roadmapTypically developed by experts

Land use is a complex issue

Finite amount of landCompeting desires food production, leisure, housing, transport, ecology, timber etc.Different approaches multifunctionality vs. optimalityConnects to many areas of lifePersonal choices lead to broad changesNot always well understood by the general publicDesign CONSIDERATIONSTask: construct visions of future land use in 2040Time consuming task (>20mins) and no moneyWide public engagement, especially the younger generationWork with desire, rather than pessimismTool which works in workshops as well as on the webBalance between encouraging creativity and making analysis tractableAllow general public to engage with a complex technical areaCanvassesStarted from a blank canvas metaphorGave people the building blocks to create a picture of their future lifeCombine:Images: visually appealing, immediate, limited selectionText: open ended, harder to analyse, allows for more depthFind areas of life where personal decisions have impacts on land use:Eating habits, housing choices, transport requirements etc.

Interface Design

Demographics and Comparison

User Survey ResultsThe fun visual style was appreciated by most people (87%) but some really disliked it.Closed set of images was frustrating for some peopleContextualisation with other respondents was appreciated, but the interface needs workDoing the task made participants engage with their future and what their decisions meantLead to curiosity about how this relates to EU policyOpportunity to tie into more substantive learning what are the effects of choices? What kinds of people are out there?Drawings vs. Photographs

Stylistically consistentTailored exactly to descriptionNot freeNo copyright issuesCartoonish style puts some people offClosed set hard to add toLess regionally specificMany free images available lots of choice, flexibilityCan have copyright issuesVarying quality, tones, saturation etc.Brings extra informationCreative Engagement Techniques

QuestionnairesLittle engagementLow commitmentEasy to manage and analyseDynamic QuestionnairesSense of creativityLow commitmentEasy to manage and analyseSerious GamesDeep engagementHigh commitmentMajor effort to manage and analyse

worldwithoutoil.org

Takhtamysheva & Smeddinck 2012,slaveryfootprint.org

Use in Workshops

Closed, structuredPersonalOpen, semi-structuredDeeper:Spatial relationshipsConnections to wider issuesRequired more supportThanks for listeningGoing live in the next few weeks:www.life2040.eu

Thanks to co-creators: Joske Houtkamp, Marc Metzger, Inge La Riviere, Marta Perez-Soba, James Paterson, Anne JensenSupported by VOLANTE (Visions of Land Use Transitions) and SociaM (Theory and Practice of Social Machines) projects